*JoshKnows UFC Fight Night 84: Feb 27th

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  • JoshKnows46
    SBR MVP
    • 07-27-12
    • 3691

    #1
    *JoshKnows UFC Fight Night 84: Feb 27th
    Anderson Silva -325 $325 to win $100
    Anderson Silva wins inside the distance -131 $131 to win $100

    Thales Leites +290 $1000 to win $2900
    Thales Leites wins inside the distance +574 $300 to win $1722

    Francisco Rivera -235 Risking $705 to win $300
    Francisco Rivera wins inside the distance +100 $300 to win $300
  • CaptChaos145
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 04-03-14
    • 588

    #2
    I like the AS bets - especially inside the distance.
    I don't like Thales in this one. I do like this version of Thales since his 2nd return to the UFC but Mousasi is too well rounded, won't get KO'd, and his JJ is very good - good enough to stay out of subs.
    Good luck man.
    Comment
    • JoshKnows46
      SBR MVP
      • 07-27-12
      • 3691

      #3
      Originally posted by CaptChaos145
      I like the AS bets - especially inside the distance.
      I don't like Thales in this one. I do like this version of Thales since his 2nd return to the UFC but Mousasi is too well rounded, won't get KO'd, and his JJ is very good - good enough to stay out of subs.
      Good luck man.
      Thanks bro...thales is the best bet on the card so far, he has the power advantage, wrestling advantage, pressure advantage, and jj advantage. Wrong guy is favored, have Thales at -160. I'm 100% betting for or against mousasi in his career, most recently, went huge betting on him when he defeated Dan henderson, won small betting against him when he lost to souza,won huge against him in his last fight getting hall at plus 400 when he got tkod, I'm gonna cleanup again in this mismatch, he's a fighter I know very well, I'm very confident in leites atleast winning a dec, but there's a high probability mousasi doesn't make the final bell. Getting 3 to 1 and almost 6 to 1 on my money here is a absolute no brainer, easy money. Mousasi will need a finish to win, and I can't see him subbing leites, so he'll have to keep it standing, ko would be his only path to victory.
      Comment
      • JoshKnows46
        SBR MVP
        • 07-27-12
        • 3691

        #4
        BTW thales has never been kod, he's on a 9 fight winning streak, he beat bisping regardless of the robbery dec in bisping favor. And Moose has lost 3 of his last 7, this is a tale of 2 careers headed in opposite directions, thales has changed with the game, mousasi hasnt.
        Comment
        • mirinquads
          SBR MVP
          • 04-22-13
          • 3927

          #5
          I think the fight goes long personally played over in each round and Anderson Dec
          Comment
          • mirinquads
            SBR MVP
            • 04-22-13
            • 3927

            #6
            Got gtd and leites too and leites sub +1400
            Comment
            • Deceptakhan
              SBR High Roller
              • 12-26-12
              • 161

              #7
              Definetly the over!
              Comment
              • JoshKnows46
                SBR MVP
                • 07-27-12
                • 3691

                #8
                Originally posted by mirinquads
                I think the fight goes long personally played over in each round and Anderson Dec
                In a 5 round fight, in a fight that will be for the majority a kick boxing match, mostly contested on the feet, anderson will eventually find his shot, he wont let bisping off the hook as leites did in many occasions when he had bisping hurt. though your getting much more bang for your buck on anderson by dec, so i can understand the play.
                Comment
                • JoshKnows46
                  SBR MVP
                  • 07-27-12
                  • 3691

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Deceptakhan
                  Definetly the over!
                  in which fight?
                  Comment
                  • Deceptakhan
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 12-26-12
                    • 161

                    #10
                    Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                    in which fight?
                    Sorry, the leites fight
                    Comment
                    • mirinquads
                      SBR MVP
                      • 04-22-13
                      • 3927

                      #11
                      Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                      In a 5 round fight, in a fight that will be for the majority a kick boxing match, mostly contested on the feet, anderson will eventually find his shot, he wont let bisping off the hook as leites did in many occasions when he had bisping hurt. though your getting much more bang for your buck on anderson by dec, so i can understand the play.
                      Bisping is not going to engage long enough for Anderson to land the kill shot, but it is a long time for sure. Anderson is a counterpuncher and seem to me to have lost a step from the Nick Diaz fight. I see a lot of waiting around, though the spider may have gotten his confidence back. In the old days, its a fight who screams Bisping out cold in two, but not any more. Bisping will hit and run as much as at all possible.

                      Wouldnt be suprised to see bisping stretched at some point at all. I feel like he will fight real scared though, like against Leites. If Anderson isn't given anything he will just wait.
                      Comment
                      • Vaughany
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 03-07-10
                        • 45563

                        #12
                        Agree Thales is good value. Combination of being very hard to finish, and Mousasi being so casual. He isnt going to be hard to get a hold like Bisping was/is, not gonna see Mousasi dancing around being elusive or anything
                        Comment
                        • CaptChaos145
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 04-03-14
                          • 588

                          #13
                          Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                          BTW thales has never been kod, he's on a 9 fight winning streak, he beat bisping regardless of the robbery dec in bisping favor. And Moose has lost 3 of his last 7, this is a tale of 2 careers headed in opposite directions, thales has changed with the game, mousasi hasnt.
                          Mousasi has lost a few but Thales would have lost to the same guys (minus the Hall fluke.) Mousasi has also fought the stiffer comp. Thales has 2 KO/TKO in 30 fights so I don't think he has a power advantage although I see where you're coming from - he looks like he has power. Mousasi, on the other hand, has KO/TKO'd almost half his opponents. Yes Thales has not been KO'd but Mousasi has only been KO'd once in over 40 fights (Hall.)
                          Bisping and Mousasi are both similar cause they are both not great in any department but both are well rounded. And Mousasi is better than Bisping everywhere... ground, BJJ, wrestling, striking, etc... and Bisping did lose to Thales (close fight.) That was not a robbery.
                          I can see the value but I'm surprised you have Thales actually favored in this one. Moose is the more polished fighter for sure.
                          I don't like Moose at those odds but you have Thales as a lock. I sincerely hope you reconsider - lol.
                          Just debating with you buddy. I enjoy your posts and picks!
                          I hope you win but only if Moose gets caught with something cause it would be a mental loss for me otherwise. I believe Mousasi wins the fight cause he's the better fighter.
                          Comment
                          • JoshKnows46
                            SBR MVP
                            • 07-27-12
                            • 3691

                            #14
                            Originally posted by CaptChaos145
                            Mousasi has lost a few but Thales would have lost to the same guys (minus the Hall fluke.) Mousasi has also fought the stiffer comp. Thales has 2 KO/TKO in 30 fights so I don't think he has a power advantage although I see where you're coming from - he looks like he has power. Mousasi, on the other hand, has KO/TKO'd almost half his opponents. Yes Thales has not been KO'd but Mousasi has only been KO'd once in over 40 fights (Hall.)
                            Bisping and Mousasi are both similar cause they are both not great in any department but both are well rounded. And Mousasi is better than Bisping everywhere... ground, BJJ, wrestling, striking, etc... and Bisping did lose to Thales (close fight.) That was not a robbery.
                            I can see the value but I'm surprised you have Thales actually favored in this one. Moose is the more polished fighter for sure.
                            I don't like Moose at those odds but you have Thales as a lock. I sincerely hope you reconsider - lol.
                            Just debating with you buddy. I enjoy your posts and picks!
                            I hope you win but only if Moose gets caught with something cause it would be a mental loss for me otherwise. I believe Mousasi wins the fight cause he's the better fighter.
                            I defintly don't have him as a lock, have thales at -160, far from a lock, i believe it's a must bet at current odds however. I agree moose is better then bisping everywhere, but moose will engage with thales alot more than bisping did as vaugany mentioned, both on the ground and feet, and while I believe sub is thales most likely path the victory, I also believe he can win by dec by pressing the fight, and out wrestling moose to dec, and while mousasi has a excellent chin, good recovery time, and wont get knocked out cold, thales has the power to drop him and follow up with gnp or submit moose. Thales has only recently reinvented himself and started to improve his standup and aggression, and still has a world class ground game, so only having 2 kos isn't telling of his improvements. I agree with the majority of what your saying though, good points, and I also agree sub or dec to be more likely then ko.
                            Comment
                            • JoshKnows46
                              SBR MVP
                              • 07-27-12
                              • 3691

                              #15
                              You think thales would lose to hall, machida and souza. ..I'd like to see that souza matchup actually if he wins this one, don't think it's as cut and dry as you do.
                              Comment
                              • CaptChaos145
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 04-03-14
                                • 588

                                #16
                                Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                                You think thales would lose to hall, machida and souza. ..I'd like to see that souza matchup actually if he wins this one, don't think it's as cut and dry as you do.
                                I think Thales loses to Machida and Souza. I think he beats Hall too. Mousasi was tooling Hall until he got caught. I think Mousasi beats Hall 80% of the time.
                                Comment
                                • TPowell
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 02-21-08
                                  • 18842

                                  #17
                                  How much you got on Krystof?
                                  Comment
                                  • Thor4140
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 02-09-08
                                    • 22296

                                    #18
                                    i wouldn't bet any of these Brazilians their first fight off the ped ban. McGregor was spot on when he said "Ped seems to be a way of life
                                    for these Brazilians. Most of them look like shit
                                    Comment
                                    • JoshKnows46
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-27-12
                                      • 3691

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by TPowell
                                      How much you got on Krystof?
                                      3 units risking 900 have him at -135, -155, and -154, anything under -250 is gravy....that's the only matchup I had a chance to watch anything on, with both bellator and ufn 83 last week, so I'm gonna miss out on sum good lines in the other fights, but fuk it, just pick the winnerz.
                                      Comment
                                      • JoshKnows46
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 07-27-12
                                        • 3691

                                        #20
                                        Added:
                                        Krzysztof Jotko -135/-155 risking $900
                                        Comment
                                        • Thor4140
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 02-09-08
                                          • 22296

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Thor4140
                                          i wouldn't bet any of these Brazilians their first fight off the ped ban. McGregor was spot on when he said "Ped seems to be a way of life
                                          for these Brazilians. Most of them look like shit
                                          jibby can't u give me a little more than 1 point for my post. I just spent over three thousand points last night on my 98 dollar and 50 cent dinner at Red Lobster. can u imagine how full i was since it was just me and my lady. Not easy to almost spend 100 bucks at red lobster for two and only have one drink. oh and her meal was about 15 bucks cause she don't eat seafood lol.
                                          Comment
                                          • JIBBBY
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-10-09
                                            • 83686

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Thor4140
                                            jibby can't u give me a little more than 1 point for my post. I just spent over three thousand points last night on my 98 dollar and 50 cent dinner at Red Lobster. can u imagine how full i was since it was just me and my lady. Not easy to almost spend 100 bucks at red lobster for two and only have one drink. oh and her meal was about 15 bucks cause she don't eat seafood lol.
                                            I use to eat at red lobster.. A few black girls I dated years ago loved it.. It's a black thing here in LA for some reason.. Haven't been there in years..

                                            You know me Thor I loaded up on the wrong Cowboy in the final fight and got lit up like a Christmas tree with the bet points.. My bet points took a major hit last night being there are no props to play on SBR.. I also lost to members on the side and had to pay up..

                                            Back to ground zero with the bet points.. I'll get em back up in a couple weeks like I always do.. One point is all I can afford for now... Lol.
                                            Comment
                                            • JoshKnows46
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 07-27-12
                                              • 3691

                                              #23
                                              Added:
                                              Anderson/Bisping Over 2.5 -140 $450 win $321.43
                                              Anderson to finish in round 3 +650 $130 to win $845
                                              Anderson to finish in round 4 +1050 $100 to win $1050
                                              Anderson to finish in round 5 +1650 $70 to win $1155
                                              Comment
                                              • Thor4140
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 02-09-08
                                                • 22296

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by JIBBBY
                                                I use to eat at red lobster.. A few black girls I dated years ago loved it.. It's a black thing here in LA for some reason.. Haven't been there in years..

                                                You know me Thor I loaded up on the wrong Cowboy in the final fight and got lit up like a Christmas tree with the bet points.. My bet points took a major hit last night being there are no props to play on SBR.. I also lost to members on the side and had to pay up..

                                                Back to ground zero with the bet points.. I'll get em back up in a couple weeks like I always do.. One point is all I can afford for now... Lol.
                                                .
                                                i think that is the first time i ever gave someone points jibby. U enjoy those points. That is about 30 dollars worth of points
                                                i just gave ya.
                                                Comment
                                                • JoshKnows46
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 07-27-12
                                                  • 3691

                                                  #25
                                                  Added:
                                                  Marlon Vera +155 $300 to win $465
                                                  Marlon Vera inside the distance +290 $150 to win $435
                                                  Comment
                                                  • bjpenn85
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 02-17-11
                                                    • 5059

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                                                    Added:
                                                    Krzysztof Jotko -135/-155 risking $900
                                                    So your line of thought here is that this is a fight primarily happening on the feet where jotko will win and if scott try to take it to the ground, jotko has good enough hips to keep horizontal.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JIBBBY
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-10-09
                                                      • 83686

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Thor4140
                                                      .
                                                      i think that is the first time i ever gave someone points jibby. U enjoy those points. That is about 30 dollars worth of points
                                                      i just gave ya.

                                                      Thor ya didn't have to do that... What a nice guy!!!!

                                                      I appreciate the points man and I'll give em back to ya as soon as I double them up.. I still owe my Canadian pal JC2008 - 500 points as well for a nice gesture he did for me months ago as well.... I'll remember this Thor and return the favor in spades one day......

                                                      It's nice to see some guys on this forum are cool like that. Really...

                                                      *I won't load up all my points on a main event fight anymore like RDA for example coming up.. I got silly doing that twice already and got burnt twice for 1000's and zero'd out.....
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JoshKnows46
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 07-27-12
                                                        • 3691

                                                        #28
                                                        Added:
                                                        Parke wins by 3 round decision +335 risking 300
                                                        Parke/khabilov goes 3 round distance -245 risking 1500
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TPowell
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 02-21-08
                                                          • 18842

                                                          #29
                                                          Any opinion on the HW fight with Danho? Feel pretty confident that he wins this by decision but thinking I'll play Danho at even money and the OVER 1.5 at -150.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JoshKnows46
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 07-27-12
                                                            • 3691

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by TPowell
                                                            Any opinion on the HW fight with Danho? Feel pretty confident that he wins this by decision but thinking I'll play Danho at even money and the OVER 1.5 at -150.
                                                            I haven't started watching film on that fight yet, I got a late start on this card, I don't bet on HW fights too often, and not much line movement, so that's gonna be one of the last fights I get to. I've never seen danho fight at all yet...what you see in him that you like or makes u think it goes over
                                                            Comment
                                                            • TPowell
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 02-21-08
                                                              • 18842

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by JoshKnows46
                                                              I haven't started watching film on that fight yet, I got a late start on this card, I don't bet on HW fights too often, and not much line movement, so that's gonna be one of the last fights I get to. I've never seen danho fight at all yet...what you see in him that you like or makes u think it goes over
                                                              His opponent has struggled a ton with monster size HW's who try to grind you out (Rosholt, Hamilton, etc) and I just think you flat out don't belong in the UFC if you can't beat Anthony Hamilton. I think Danho is the type of guy who is still really raw but he's a former powerlifter who fought and beat decent competition outside the UFC and should keep getting a ton better. I think he'll keep the fight in the clinch against the cage and work him over with uppercuts and elbows. He doesn't have one shot power but he's a great athlete who always pushes forward and tries to get the fight where he needs to take it.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • JoshKnows46
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 07-27-12
                                                                • 3691

                                                                #32
                                                                I parlayed up The Goat, and The McGoat

                                                                Parlay
                                                                Anderson -320
                                                                Mcgregor -400
                                                                $900 to win $576.56
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Vaughany
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 03-07-10
                                                                  • 45563

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by TPowell
                                                                  His opponent has struggled a ton with monster size HW's who try to grind you out (Rosholt, Hamilton, etc) and I just think you flat out don't belong in the UFC if you can't beat Anthony Hamilton. I think Danho is the type of guy who is still really raw but he's a former powerlifter who fought and beat decent competition outside the UFC and should keep getting a ton better. I think he'll keep the fight in the clinch against the cage and work him over with uppercuts and elbows. He doesn't have one shot power but he's a great athlete who always pushes forward and tries to get the fight where he needs to take it.
                                                                  lol agree, Hamilton is more than a bum! just the worse
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JoshKnows46
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 07-27-12
                                                                    • 3691

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Added:
                                                                    Daniel Omielanczuk -120 risking $1000
                                                                    Gouti/pack under 2.5 +145 risking $300
                                                                    Amirk/Wilkinson under 2.5 -155 risking $600
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JoshKnows46
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 07-27-12
                                                                      • 3691

                                                                      #35
                                                                      My full card:
                                                                      Anderson Silva -325 $325 to win $100
                                                                      Anderson Silva wins inside the distance -131 $131 to win $100
                                                                      Thales Leites +290 $1000 to win $2900
                                                                      Thales Leites wins inside the distance +574 $300 to win $1722
                                                                      Francisco Rivera -235 Risking $705 to win $300
                                                                      Francisco Rivera wins inside the distance +100 $300 to win $300
                                                                      Krzysztof Jotko -135/-155 risking $900
                                                                      Anderson/Bisping Over 2.5 -140 $450 win $321.43
                                                                      Anderson to finish in round 3 +650 $130 to win $845
                                                                      Anderson to finish in round 4 +1050 $100 to win $1050
                                                                      Anderson to finish in round 5 +1650 $70 to win $1155
                                                                      Marlon Vera +155 $300 to win $465
                                                                      Marlon Vera inside the distance +290 $150 to win $435
                                                                      Parke wins by 3 round decision +335 risking $300
                                                                      Parke/khabilov goes 3 round distance -245 risking $1500
                                                                      Daniel Omielanczuk -120 risking $1000
                                                                      Gouti/pack under 2.5 +145 risking $300
                                                                      Amirk/Wilkinson under 2.5 -155 risking $600

                                                                      Parlay
                                                                      Anderson -320
                                                                      Mcgregor -400
                                                                      $900 to win $576.56
                                                                      Comment
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