UFC Fight Night 82: Feb 6th

[JIBBBY]

I got toronto ML today.

Dallas -1 tomorrow.

Good luck, bro.

Raptors on the road tough call.. They are up at half though.. GL same back to ya Sanity!!!

[Sanity Check]

Raptors on the road tough call.. They are up at half though.. GL same back to ya Sanity!!!

Looks like we both hit.

Holy hell, what happened to the clippers they came so close to losing & barely pulled it out in the 4th & OT.

That's the kind of thing I have a hard time explaining. lol

[JoshKnows46]

Looks like we both hit.

Holy hell, what happened to the clippers they came so close to losing & barely pulled it out in the 4th & OT.

That's the kind of thing I have a hard time explaining. lol

Seems like playoffs would be better for betting? So many games mskes each game less meaniful, in turn harder to handicap, I'm sure there's a way to take advantage of it, but I never got into the sport to know.

[Sanity Check]

Seems like playoffs would be better for betting? So many games mskes each game less meaniful, in turn harder to handicap, I'm sure there's a way to take advantage of it, but I never got into the sport to know.

The best explanation I've been able to come up with is.

When teams are heavily favored to win a game sometimes they lose focus and take a day off/party(?), play beneath their ability & lose games they would never have lost if they were 100%. I think the NBA season is long, its like 5 months or something, full time? That could be what makes it hard predicting what days their designated "days off" are. I think they don't get time off, so essentially they have to make their own.

But, I don't know if that's true or not. There could be some other reasoning behind it.

[JIBBBY]

NBA capping IMO and what works in a nut shell -

- It's all about which teams are hot and healthy and which teams are not and injured in real time and not weeks or months ago...

- Back to back nights on the road can wear down older teams and upsets happen in those alot...

- Ride win and losing streaks just like in most sports if you recognize them happening early on.. Usually takes a few games for the odds makers to adjust and catch up...

- Know the recent history with team match ups.. If one team was beat on the road last and is now facing that same team again at home most times that home team covers... Revenge factor is real in the NBA as no playoff bound team wants to get embarrassed twice and or swept in the regular season..

- Mid week games are more consistent with logical play then on Saturday and Sundays.. Players party harder on the weekends and it sometimes shows up in the games..

- Get NBATV channel and watch game time highlights and team reports for 30 minutes everyday at night to get a feel for teams and trends for that next day..

- Know injury reports day to day and or who is questionable for play in the starting lineups. That's about it..

Read 44mag picks in the NBA for team totals, quarters, halves, O/U's and cap further yourself as he's usually on those.. I just crunch current team numbers and player trends for the O/U's and that usually works out.. I look for miss in the lines that come out and bet those..

- Go thru all the games in the morning for that day on paper or computer and pick the best games to play on the schedule - should be 1, 3, or 5 games that you play for that day.. Don't bet an even number of games as you don't give yourself a chance to win daily and could just break even and lose the juice.. Bet evenly on all games and load up only on the good ones every once in while that really stick out..

That's what it takes if you wanna get serious and win in this sport!!! Hope that helps fellas.. Yes it's work but I enjoy it just like MMA capping..

It can be alot more profitable then MMA if you know what you're doing just because their can be action placed everyday unlike with MMA...

[PaperTrail07]

Good Card Fellas....Was in Veags and ripped the Book down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!-THEN gave it all back on Carolina-----I knew it was dumb to over-bet the Superbowl--but hard when your at Venetian in the middle of the madness LOL......Burkman/Thompson ALL DAY---Fun Size lost but had a good battle...

[PaperTrail07]

Booooom-----

josh---what do you think on this??....imo---it is the best bet i've seen on the card....they will tie up/ either way it goes down...over 1.5 i a gift and could be hedged w nelson by ko im sure---anyone have a line on that----over 1.5 rounds....

sat 2/6	24405	j. Rosholt		<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="m1_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="24">+140	<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="l1_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="25">o 1½ -135
7:00pm (pst)	24406	r. Nelson		<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="m2_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="26">-160	<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="l2_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="27">u 1½ +115

[PaperTrail07]

Few of the books PULLED the over 1.5 on Nelson----Then i knew it was GOLD lol...

[PaperTrail07]

Also-on another note---Trust winners-not big bettors-----Followed a guy to the window who bet 50K....I tailed blind hoping he was mob related/sharp----Lost every penetrating bet LOL......most dumb thing i have done in a while...

[GoodSun]

NBA capping IMO and what works in a nut shell -

- It's all about which teams are hot and healthy and which teams are not and injured in real time and not weeks or months ago...

- Back to back nights on the road can wear down older teams and upsets happen in those alot...

- Ride win and losing streaks just like in most sports if you recognize them happening early on.. Usually takes a few games for the odds makers to adjust and catch up...

- Know the recent history with team match ups.. If one team was beat on the road last and is now facing that same team again at home most times that home team covers... Revenge factor is real in the NBA as no playoff bound team wants to get embarrassed twice and or swept in the regular season..

- Mid week games are more consistent with logical play then on Saturday and Sundays.. Players party harder on the weekends and it sometimes shows up in the games..

- Get NBATV channel and watch game time highlights and team reports for 30 minutes everyday at night to get a feel for teams and trends for that next day..

- Know injury reports day to day and or who is questionable for play in the starting lineups. That's about it..

Read 44mag picks in the NBA for team totals, quarters, halves, O/U's and cap further yourself as he's usually on those.. I just crunch current team numbers and player trends for the O/U's and that usually works out.. I look for miss in the lines that come out and bet those..

- Go thru all the games in the morning for that day on paper or computer and pick the best games to play on the schedule - should be 1, 3, or 5 games that you play for that day.. Don't bet an even number of games as you don't give yourself a chance to win daily and could just break even and lose the juice.. Bet evenly on all games and load up only on the good ones every once in while that really stick out..

That's what it takes if you wanna get serious and win in this sport!!! Hope that helps fellas.. Yes it's work but I enjoy it just like MMA capping..

It can be alot more profitable then MMA if you know what you're doing just because their can be action placed everyday unlike with MMA...

good call on toronto, and very good notes. i have a hard time betting the regular season its hit or miss for me but have better luck in the playoffs where teams and stats are more consistent.

[Sanity Check]

NBA capping IMO and what works in a nut shell -

- It's all about which teams are hot and healthy and which teams are not and injured in real time and not weeks or months ago...

- Back to back nights on the road can wear down older teams and upsets happen in those alot...

- Ride win and losing streaks just like in most sports if you recognize them happening early on.. Usually takes a few games for the odds makers to adjust and catch up...

- Know the recent history with team match ups.. If one team was beat on the road last and is now facing that same team again at home most times that home team covers... Revenge factor is real in the NBA as no playoff bound team wants to get embarrassed twice and or swept in the regular season..

- Mid week games are more consistent with logical play then on Saturday and Sundays.. Players party harder on the weekends and it sometimes shows up in the games..

- Get NBATV channel and watch game time highlights and team reports for 30 minutes everyday at night to get a feel for teams and trends for that next day..

- Know injury reports day to day and or who is questionable for play in the starting lineups. That's about it..

Read 44mag picks in the NBA for team totals, quarters, halves, O/U's and cap further yourself as he's usually on those.. I just crunch current team numbers and player trends for the O/U's and that usually works out.. I look for miss in the lines that come out and bet those..

- Go thru all the games in the morning for that day on paper or computer and pick the best games to play on the schedule - should be 1, 3, or 5 games that you play for that day.. Don't bet an even number of games as you don't give yourself a chance to win daily and could just break even and lose the juice.. Bet evenly on all games and load up only on the good ones every once in while that really stick out..

That's what it takes if you wanna get serious and win in this sport!!! Hope that helps fellas.. Yes it's work but I enjoy it just like MMA capping..

It can be alot more profitable then MMA if you know what you're doing just because their can be action placed everyday unlike with MMA...

I agree with a lot of that. Thx for info, btw.

I hit a lot of 3 and 4 game parlay plays at the tail end of the season, last year.

This year has been hit or miss for me, so far.

Like some have said, the playoffs might be the best time to make plays when everyone's playing more consistent?

This could offer an inside look into what makes NBA games so inconsistent and tough to cap.

http://www.gq.com/story/nba-men-women-groupies

Have to make exceptions for that groupie factor.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Lol the groupie factor.. Women do weaken legs... Sounds like a good time though.. That's funny Sanity but true.....

My most recent adjustment of gambling play in the NBA is with these Nationally televised games at that the end of the night if I decide to play them. Such as the Golden State Warriors last night on TNT... I always buy a couple points or point on those games one way or the other.. The spread was 13.5 on that game for the Warriors on most books and the Warriors won by 13.. Most people missed winning that bet by a 1/2 point if they took the Warriors on the straight.... I can't tell you how many times the odds makers nail down those lines in the last big nationally televised games.. Espn, TNT, etc..

Usually buying a point or 2 in those games can make all the difference.... It's worth it to pay the -125 or -130 IMO for the couple of points like in last nights game if you were on the Warriors... Or you can tease it down with another game.. Seen it happen too many times with regularity in years past..

[PaperTrail07]

IMO NBA is garbage....buncha overpaid 1/2 effort giving bums....about 2-3 teams with a chance to win it....wake me up whem playoffs arrive---SNOOZE......if you make $ great....its simply unwatchable for me...

[JIBBBY]

I don't watch the entire games either anymore like I use to Paper... Just the highlights on NBAtv mostly.. Might check out the 4th quarters in tight games if I have money riding that's it... I don't watch the hockey games either but I bet on those regularly..

MMA and NFL are the only 2 sports I still watch complete games or fights. Those happen to be my most favorite sports though.. I do watch the NBA playoffs like you guys though..

Who has the time to watch all sports and complete games? I don't....

[PaperTrail07]

Agree---I watch Golden State 1st half just to see if I can get a good 1/2 time line---otherwise---nothing for me ---its just terrible lol...too many games--that make them meaningless

[JAKEPEAVY21]

IMO NBA is garbage....buncha overpaid 1/2 effort giving bums....about 2-3 teams with a chance to win it....wake me up whem playoffs arrive---SNOOZE......if you make $ great....its simply unwatchable for me...

couldn't agree more, dude

growing up during the 80s and early 90s with so many great players and much better product

can't even watch a quarter these days unless it's a Golden St game

[PaperTrail07]

No doubt LOL....they play at 1/2 speed for 2.5 quarters lol...