UFC Fight Night 82: Feb 6th

[PaperTrail07]

It was 345 for me I believe when I played it, I got him at 400 by dec, because I believe this fight Goes the distance 90 percent of the time.

I agree---

[JoshKnows46]

Scratch that camp part about Rivas. I'm not sure wtf he's doing anymore. Here's a link that says he's working at 10th Planet Costa Mesa with Eddie Bravo in BJJ and the now CLOSED Reign gym that Mark Munoz used to own for wrestling. Now what I wanted to see for fading him. I'd like to see if the kid has been training this whole time or if he got hurt somewhere along the way. 15 months is a long time off at 24 years old and he would definitely be leaps and bounds better if he was working at those two gyms for the majority of the time.

Lahat was at -400 and -350.. he's down to -310 and -300 after a day of betting, if. He drops to -260, I'll play him for 3 units/$900. On probs I'm gonna play wonderboy by ko, wonderboy by dec,and Burkman by sub each for $100..Considering Roy by finish in the 1st Round as well for $100,depending on the number I get.

[FreddieUFC]

I didnt get as good of a line as Josh so only played it for 1/2 the amount....+330 -But yes I am ----I am also on Burkman as well---big step down in competition for him --Should win $$

No lines available over here for Burkman/Noons yet. After hitting decent profit last time when 2 out of 3 dogs barked, I'm thinking of avoiding any favourites again this time and relying on Thompson & Makovsky to get it done. Roll on, Fight Night...

[JoshKnows46]

No lines available over here for Burkman/Noons yet. After hitting decent profit last time when 2 out of 3 dogs barked, I'm thinking of avoiding any favourites again this time and relying on Thompson & Makovsky to get it done. Roll on, Fight Night...

This is gonna be a mostly favorites card, don't be scared of the favorites, burkman is only -170, should be much higher in my opinion.

[TPowell]

What is your unit size again? I know you mentioned it in another thread but I'm lazy

[FreddieUFC]

This is gonna be a mostly favorites card, don't be scared of the favorites, burkman is only -170, should be much higher in my opinion.

I hear what you're saying, Josh, thanks. Got burned on a couple of favourites recently so being extra cautious till I've clawed it all back. Obviously this isn't a great long-term strategy but it's worked for me on other sports in the past. Nothing like recouping your losses to banish that fear.

[JoshKnows46]

What is your unit size again? I know you mentioned it in another thread but I'm lazy

$300 per unit, you should up your unit slowy, $50 for every $5000 increase of your bankroll, I've earned well well over 30k, but I choose to keep my unit at $300 because I've been banned a couple times, I get my limits decreased, it's a Hassel to find reliable people to make new accounts. I mostly stick with 10 units max per bet, but I go off the rail on occasion and bet a 25 unit play. It's always best to under bet your bankroll then to overbet, I have a huge edge in betting mma,I believe I have a bigger edge then anyone on this earth, though most gamblers believe that themselves, and I still vastly under bet my bankroll, because even I have horrible nights, if you want to stay in this game, you must under bet your bankroll and allow yourself experience, you don't get better watching from the sidelines, practicing, you learn when your playing the game, let your bankroll increase slowly, the money's gonna come.you don't want to make your lows to low,and your highs to high, you want this to be stress free, because if it's not stress free, you will start chasing loses and start playing your C game instead of your A game, under betting my roll keeps me sharp and stress free.

[kmdubya]

Stephen Thompson +210 Risking $900

I like that a lot. Hendricks is good, but really unimpressive back to and including his GSP fight.

The value is definitely there.

[TPowell]

have to ask, why Burkman? The guy has lost his last 6 fights and seems to be aging. I'm assuming you think Burkman dominates this fight on the ground, but I find it hard to lay money with a guy like Burkman against a guy like Noons who has been impressive in his career

[PaperTrail07]

I cant pass up a wining opportunity (: but also cant hate on you 1 bit for those being your only 2 plays... + $$ is NEVER a bad thing---Im with you so hope you CASH (:

No lines available over here for Burkman/Noons yet. After hitting decent profit last time when 2 out of 3 dogs barked, I'm thinking of avoiding any favourites again this time and relying on Thompson & Makovsky to get it done. Roll on, Fight Night...

[bjpenn85]

$300 per unit, you should up your unit slowy, $50 for every $5000 increase of your bankroll, I've earned well well over 30k, but I choose to keep my unit at $300 because I've been banned a couple times, I get my limits decreased, it's a Hassel to find reliable people to make new accounts. I mostly stick with 10 units max per bet, but I go off the rail on occasion and bet a 25 unit play. It's always best to under bet your bankroll then to overbet, I have a huge edge in betting mma,I believe I have a bigger edge then anyone on this earth, though most gamblers believe that themselves, and I still vastly under bet my bankroll, because even I have horrible nights, if you want to stay in this game, you must under bet your bankroll and allow yourself experience, you don't get better watching from the sidelines, practicing, you learn when your playing the game, let your bankroll increase slowly, the money's gonna come.you don't want to make your lows to low,and your highs to high, you want this to be stress free, because if it's not stress free, you will start chasing loses and start playing your C game instead of your A game, under betting my roll keeps me sharp and stress free.

Are you ever thrown out from 5dimes?

[bjpenn85]

kicked out? From pinnacle or 5dimes. Those are my biggest concerns right now

[JoshKnows46]

kicked out? From pinnacle or 5dimes. Those are my biggest concerns right now

No those books are good for it, no worries with them, I've never been not payed out either, I just don't like keeping more than 10k in a account for my own piece of mind.

[JoshKnows46]

have to ask, why Burkman? The guy has lost his last 6 fights and seems to be aging. I'm assuming you think Burkman dominates this fight on the ground, but I find it hard to lay money with a guy like Burkman against a guy like Noons who has been impressive in his career

I'll explain my thought process behind the bet when I get home later tonight.

[TPowell]

Locked in the over 2.5 in the flyweight fight and Zach by decision as well. Line on 5D for OSP is -410 now though. Going to monitor it tomorrow. Won't be able to get more into 5D for another 24 hours though

[TPowell]

Went ahead and bit the bullet and uncorked 4 units on OSP at -400. Will wait until tomorrow to put down the other 4

[bjpenn85]

No those books are good for it, no worries with them, I've never been not payed out either, I just don't like keeping more than 10k in a account for my own piece of mind.

Sweet. Its pretty sweet that there is some legit bookies who dont hustle their customers, i have never had any problems with thoose books myself.

[JoshKnows46]

have to ask, why Burkman? The guy has lost his last 6 fights and seems to be aging. I'm assuming you think Burkman dominates this fight on the ground, but I find it hard to lay money with a guy like Burkman against a guy like Noons who has been impressive in his career

This is what I wrote to someone in pms before the lines came out,..
Think about it though, noons has one path to victory and it's slim imo, burkman has only been kod once, and that was by cote, in a fight he was looking great in, he does have a low fighter iq, but I believe even with a bad gameplan he's still likely to win this fight, mix in takedowns to steal rounds, he's slick on the ground and has ko power, he's more well rounded and has 3 paths to victory, he can take either the hard road or the easy road, and both lead to victory imo. Last time noons faced a similar brawler he was kod by crazy horse lol think that was his name, hopefully burkman takes the easy road though, he needs a win. Kj noons has only won 3 fights since 2010, his heart isn't in it anymore, he's a full time firefighter, I'm sure the ufc doesn't pay him much. I'm hoping I can get around -200 or even less.

[JoshKnows46]

BTW burkman doesn't have a 6 fight losing streak, he only lost the last two and looked great in both, noons is a huge step down in comp. If your worried about the ko, then hedge with noons ko, but I wouldn't advise it, as I see it as low probability based on burkmans chin being solid. Most likely outcome is burkman ends the fight by flating him out and landing gnp in back mount or by sub, I'll have 100 on sub prob, I don't see noons getting out the first round, if burkman shoots for a takedown early in the 1st, he can make this real easy if he wants.

[TPowell]

-175 on 5D, where do you play? Makes sense I guess. Noons has been pretty easy to take down lately. Cruick and Oliveira were both able to do it, but seems like they had a tough time keeping him down. I'm a little worried that Burkman won't be able to hold him down, but on the flip side he doesn't have to worry about getting subbed here like he has been in the past. Burkman should be the stronger man at 155 if he has a decent cut. Starting to talk myself into it but I'd really like to see how Burkman looks Friday

[TPowell]

BTW burkman doesn't have a 6 fight losing streak, he only lost the last two and looked great in both, noons is a huge step down in comp. If your worried about the ko, then hedge with noons ko, but I wouldn't advise it, as I see it as low probability based on burkmans chin being solid.

I think Noons by decision is more likely than by KO actually. Burkman's chin does seem solid but I can see him getting outstruck on the feet if he can't mix in takedowns

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Noad lahat -290 Risking $600

[FreddieUFC]

I cant pass up a wining opportunity (: but also cant hate on you 1 bit for those being your only 2 plays... + $$ is NEVER a bad thing---Im with you so hope you CASH (:

Thanks, bud, if all goes well I'll be out from under the Dillashaw/Pettis clusterf*ck again and free to mix a few favourites in amongst the dogs on the next card.


Really appreciate the tips, hope all your bets deliver for you, pal. Best of luck!

[JoshKnows46]

Added: probs and hedges
Johnny by ko +450 $200 (hedge, as I mentioned in the main thread, this is johnnys only path to victory, I see someone kod before the end of the 3rd..)
Wonderboy by ko +375 $100

[JoshKnows46]

Just waiting on burkman sub prop.

Added props:
Pyle wins inside distance +225
Nelson wins in round 1 +175
Burkman wins inside distance +160
Lewis wins inside distance +160 (figure the ko prop won't be much diffrent)
$100 each

[TPowell]

Think you'll just have the $100 on him by fight night? I'm starting to think Lewis has to catch him eventually

[JoshKnows46]

Think you'll just have the $100 on him by fight night? I'm starting to think Lewis has to catch him eventually

No, all im gonna add more is $200 on burkman by sub. 1/3RD of a unit is the most I'm gonna invest in lewis. Coin flip Fight, taking the plus money and fading the ufc debut. I in vision lewis being too strong for him, powering out a sub attempt, postering up and tkoing him with gnp. I like that lewis is a fast starter and the Polish pit bull could have some octagon gitters. I wouldn't be opposed to going a full unit or 2 on him, but this is all I'm putting on it.

[TPowell]

No, all im gonna add more is $200 on burkman by sub. 1/3RD of a unit is the most I'm gonna invest in lewis. Coin flip Fight, taking the plus money and fading the ufc debut. I in vision lewis being too strong for him, powering out a sub attempt, postering up and tkoing him with gnp. I like that lewis is a fast starter and the Polish pit bull could have some octagon gitters. I wouldn't be opposed to going a full unit or 2 on him, but this is all I'm putting on it.

I get that. I'm starting to like Lewis a little more after watching the Pesta fight. I think Grabowski is the better grappler of the two, but Lewis was able to stay calm and not gas out after 2 rounds of being on bottom basically.

[JIBBBY]

Just waiting on burkman sub prop.

Added props:
Pyle wins inside distance +225
Nelson wins in round 1 +175
Burkman wins inside distance +160
Lewis wins inside distance +160 (figure the ko prop won't be much diffrent)
$100 each

I like these prop plays as 2 of them are my hedges..

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Burkman by sub +300 $200

[CaptChaos145]

I don't think anyone has mentioned the Mickey Gall/Mike Jackson fight. Both fighters are very green. Value in Jackson at a plus 400 and up.

[latarianmilton]

Not sure about Burkman, i can see a clear speed advantage by KJ Noons and i'll eat my hat if Burkman gets the better of him on the feet.

KJ has had some dissapointing losses and has yet to show he can beat any decent wrestler but his striking still looks sharp and if Burkman trades wildly with him like he loves to do hes gonna get hurt.

[mirinquads]

I don't think anyone has mentioned the Mickey Gall/Mike Jackson fight. Both fighters are very green. Value in Jackson at a plus 400 and up.

Yes. Hit Jackson and Jackson KO. Probably gets subbed, but line is crazy off

[CaptChaos145]

Yes. Hit Jackson and Jackson KO. Probably gets subbed, but line is crazy off

Yeah Mickey can sub him but worth a small wager with those odds.

[JIBBBY]

I don't think anyone has mentioned the Mickey Gall/Mike Jackson fight. Both fighters are very green. Value in Jackson at a plus 400 and up.

I mentioned it on the other event thread a week ago saying it's probably worth taking a stab on Jackson at those 4-1 odds.. Yes both fighters are green so you never know...

$100 on Jackson at +400

Hedge...

$135 on Gall by Submission at -135 to cover the $100 straight.. (It's like a free bet on Jackson almost)...

Or you can take it step further and bet $270 to win $200 on the Gall Sub prop and win money either way most likely..