UFC Fight Night 82: Feb 6th

[JoshKnows46]

Stephen Thompson +210 Risking $900
Zac Makovsky by dec +400 Risking $300
Makovsky/Benavides Over 2.5 Rounds -255 Risking $1500
Ovince Saint Preux -380 Risking $2400

[bjpenn85]

If stephan thompson can get up, hes got a very clear path to victory, and his pricetag for that road is very good. Im on all plays as well except for OSP. Im not sure im willing to risk -380 to get 100 back. But cant see how cavalcante wins with way he has performed in the ufc. God awful every single minute.

[FreddieUFC]

Stephen Thompson +210 Risking $900
Zac Makovsky by dec +400 Risking $300
Makovsky/Benavides Over 2.5 Rounds -255 Risking $1500
Ovince Saint Preux -380 Risking $2400

Liking these plays, Josh, thanks. Who you got for Rosholt vs Nelson?

[TPowell]

Guessing you think JB will struggle with a wrestler like Zach enough to hit the judges cards. I'm not sure I see JB losing this fight, but he does have the tendency to get in close fights with wrestlers. Will probably ride on that over

[TPowell]

OSP ITD sounds like a play for me. Cavalcante has been finished a ton in his career. The only fight in the last 14 fights he's been in that went the decision was the grapple penetrating he got from Bader not long ago. OSP is a damn good finisher as well. Well worth the extra dollar and a half in juice

[JoshKnows46]

Liking these plays, Josh, thanks. Who you got for Rosholt vs Nelson?

No bet, I don't trust either of these slugs with my money, see multiple clear paths to victory for both guys, I'd need to get one of them at big underdog odds to take a stab, at current odds, neither or worth a cent of your money, plus all heavyweights are one punch away from getting knocked out, so its increased risk, and I'm a risk adverse gambler, so I pick and choose when to bet heavyweight fights, much more selective with the heavyweights.

[JoshKnows46]

OSP ITD sounds like a play for me. Cavalcante has been finished a ton in his career. The only fight in the last 14 fights he's been in that went the decision was the grapple penetrating he got from Bader not long ago. OSP is a damn good finisher as well. Well worth the extra dollar and a half in juice

Cavalcante has no path to victory, bet osp straight for 8 units and take the easy 2 unit plus profit, don't lose money betting a imaginary better line, that line only matters when you lose, I give osp 70% chance to finish itd, but it's 100 percent chance he wins. Don't get caught by that 30%. Realistically osp should be favored by -1300. Do you want to possible lose 8 units for the chance to win 4, or do you want to take the sure profit, think about it.. only thing worse than leaving money on the table with a easy winner like this, and not betting it at all, is given a large chunk of your stack away while still being on the right side.

[JoshKnows46]

Guessing you think JB will struggle with a wrestler like Zach enough to hit the judges cards. I'm not sure I see JB losing this fight, but he does have the tendency to get in close fights with wrestlers. Will probably ride on that over

I do, I see a clear path to victory, and not much resistants from that victory, I'm getting the better wrestler against someone expected to be coming off the juice, I see a vastly overvalued line based on a name, I see a favorable matchup, I see a fight that's going the distance regardless of who comes out on top, so I see a oppurtunity to increase my value on the dog from a already inflated 345 to 400. I got Zack winning 45 percent of the time, if juice rumors or true, I see him winning 60 percent of the time, regardless of the judges dec, I know I'm on the correct side.

[TPowell]

I'm going to get on 5Dimes before this event so should have access to these goodies that you guys normally do for this event. I'll def be playing this by decision and probably sprinkle some on Zach as well. Any thoughts on the other flyweight fight with Ray Borg? I think Borg is def the next big thing at flyweight at 22 and finished 2/4 of his fights with subs. He fought Ortiz tough and dominated Herrera on the mat. He didn't finish him, but Herrera has really good sub defense.

[JoshKnows46]

I'm going to get on 5Dimes before this event so should have access to these goodies that you guys normally do for this event. I'll def be playing this by decision and probably sprinkle some on Zach as well. Any thoughts on the other flyweight fight with Ray Borg? I think Borg is def the next big thing at flyweight at 22 and finished 2/4 of his fights with subs. He fought Ortiz tough and dominated Herrera on the mat. He didn't finish him, but Herrera has really good sub defense.

Absolutly, i will be on him, i see some great possible plays on the undercard. I don't like talking about lines or fights before they come out though, message me for next time, my threads are getting more traffic and I'm sure books are reading in, we want to get the best lines possible, just something to think about.

[FreddieUFC]

No bet, I don't trust either of these slugs with my money, see multiple clear paths to victory for both guys, I'd need to get one of them at big underdog odds to take a stab, at current odds, neither or worth a cent of your money, plus all heavyweights are one punch away from getting knocked out, so its increased risk, and I'm a risk adverse gambler, so I pick and choose when to bet heavyweight fights, much more selective with the heavyweights.

Makes sense, thanks bud.

[PaperTrail07]

ST only +185 for me....OUCH---only myself to blame for the late pull of the trigger....

[PaperTrail07]

Josh---what do you think on this??....IMO---it is the best bet I've seen on the card....they will tie up/ either way it goes down...over 1.5 i a gift and could be hedged w Nelson by KO Im sure---anyone have a line on that----OVER 1.5 rounds....

Sat 2/6	24405	J. Rosholt		<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="M1_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="24">+140	<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="L1_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="25">O 1½ -135
7:00PM (PST)	24406	R. Nelson		<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="M2_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="26">-160	<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="L2_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="27">U 1½ +115

[PaperTrail07]

-135.....Man...All over this....

[PaperTrail07]

In other new---odd Bendo moved to Bellator----Wants to cruise his fight career to a finish I guess....

[PaperTrail07]

Over 1.5----Winner

Liking these plays, Josh, thanks. Who you got for Rosholt vs Nelson?

[JoshKnows46]

Josh---what do you think on this??....IMO---it is the best bet I've seen on the card....they will tie up/ either way it goes down...over 1.5 i a gift and could be hedged w Nelson by KO Im sure---anyone have a line on that----OVER 1.5 rounds....

Sat 2/6	24405	J. Rosholt		<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="M1_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="24">+140	<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="L1_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="25">O 1½ -135
7:00PM (PST)	24406	R. Nelson		<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="M2_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="26">-160	<input name="radiox" id="radiox" language="javascript" type="radio" value="L2_2" data-dpmaxz-eid="27">U 1½ +115

I don't see value in it alone, it's accurately set imo. If you bet the over 1.5, then that means Rosholt gameplan was succeful, and u might as well bet Rosholt by dec at +230. Rosholt has no lateral movment, terrible striking defense, moves straight back or forward, doesnt like to be hit, if his. Gameplan doesn't work, Roy will make short work of him, and that's why you see that line as even money.. if Rosholt gameplan works that means he was able to grind on Roy for the first 1 5 rounds, and it isn't likely a gassed Roy will come back.... there's senerios to bet every fight, but anything is possible in heavyweight, ros getting old, chins been in some wars, I agree it's most likely Roy itd, or Rosholt by dec, but anything possible the higher u go up in weight, and once I set my mind on a no play, trying to find bets and hedges, usually end up unprofitable in the long run. I'd just look for another fight to find value. You gotta consider roys age and the guys he's fighting, he's he underperform in because of the comp level or because he's getting old, that's one question, another is who's. Gameplan Is gonna work, another is can Rosholt even keep from getting subbed once on the ground, all these questions lead me to believe that the oddsmakers did a perfect job of setting these lines, and I don't want any piece of this fight.

[JoshKnows46]

Also it isn't likely you'll get great odds on Roy by ko, as Roy itd is -130, and it you manage to get Roy ko at plus 150, and bet over 1.5 at -135, your not making much profit either way, and or still at risk for a Roy sub, or very less likely a surprise Rosholt finish, it won't be worth the small profit if you hedge. You'd have to go a little more risky and bet the Rosholt dec at plus money, if you choose to go the hedging route. I wouldn't mess with it bro.

[JoshKnows46]

In other new---odd Bendo moved to Bellator----Wants to cruise his fight career to a finish I guess....

The bible tells us this world is in the hand of the wicked, it's not surprising the two biggest supporters of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ are out the ufc, in bendo and the soldier of God, if your not with the elites agenda, your against it. It's the reason Tim Tebow can't even find a backup qb job in the nfl when he has more playoff wins the the majority on nfl qbs.its how the system is built.

[PaperTrail07]

Thanks for the input---I agree the KOline probably wont be that good..(maybe KO round 1?)....guess I need to see lines before I go and make iffy bets......lot of windows open for a loss so the hedge line needs to be good---.

I don't see value in it alone, it's accurately set imo. If you bet the over 1.5, then that means Rosholt gameplan was succeful, and u might as well bet Rosholt by dec at +230. Rosholt has no lateral movment, terrible striking defense, moves straight back or forward, doesnt like to be hit, if his. Gameplan doesn't work, Roy will make short work of him, and that's why you see that line as even money.. if Rosholt gameplan works that means he was able to grind on Roy for the first 1 5 rounds, and it isn't likely a gassed Roy will come back.... there's senerios to bet every fight, but anything is possible in heavyweight, ros getting old, chins been in some wars, I agree it's most likely Roy itd, or Rosholt by dec, but anything possible the higher u go up in weight, and once I set my mind on a no play, trying to find bets and hedges, usually end up unprofitable in the long run. I'd just look for another fight to find value. You gotta consider roys age and the guys he's fighting, he's he underperform in because of the comp level or because he's getting old, that's one question, another is who's. Gameplan Is gonna work, another is can Rosholt even keep from getting subbed once on the ground, all these questions lead me to believe that the oddsmakers did a perfect job of setting these lines, and I don't want any piece of this fight.

[PaperTrail07]

Agree-gives you a better chance to hit both--but it is a little ballzy......good angle.....Thanks again man----still looking over everything

Also it isn't likely you'll get great odds on Roy by ko, as Roy itd is -130, and it you manage to get Roy ko at plus 150, and bet over 1.5 at -135, your not making much profit either way, and or still at risk for a Roy sub, or very less likely a surprise Rosholt finish, it won't be worth the small profit if you hedge. You'd have to go a little more risky and bet the Rosholt dec at plus money, if you choose to go the hedging route. I wouldn't mess with it bro.

[TPowell]

I'll probably play Nelson ITD for small. I can't resist it. Just amazing how little of competition Rosholt has faced.

[JoshKnows46]

Maxed out Borg -300 and Burkman -170, will have a total of $1500 on each.

[JoshKnows46]

Beside live bets, Those are the only 6 bets I'm making this event, unless Lahat -350 goes down. See yall Saturday night..

[FreddieUFC]

Over 1.5----Winner

Thanks, Paper, made nice profit tailing your picks last time. You on Makovsky?

[TPowell]

not gonna play Borg ITD?

[JoshKnows46]

not gonna play Borg ITD?

Depends on the number you get, Borg goes the distance against Scroggins 45 percent of the time, so you need to get plus odds to bet itd....I see a ton of decisions on this card, by guessing on the Borg itd line price, i'm only gonna be betting this fight straight.

[iceman86]

Cavalcante has no path to victory, bet osp straight for 8 units and take the easy 2 unit plus profit, don't lose money betting a imaginary better line, that line only matters when you lose, I give osp 70% chance to finish itd, but it's 100 percent chance he wins. Don't get caught by that 30%. Realistically osp should be favored by -1300. Do you want to possible lose 8 units for the chance to win 4, or do you want to take the sure profit, think about it.. only thing worse than leaving money on the table with a easy winner like this, and not betting it at all, is given a large chunk of your stack away while still being on the right side.

Hi josh , i need some quick money here to help a brother out, so im thinking of unloading my whole bankroll (10k) on OSP . What ya think bud , he should win i think probly 85-90 percent of the time hey , line is at -360 on my site , and i usually hate laying that much juice but just looking for the safest pick for some quick cash . Your thoughts bro ?

[JoshKnows46]

Hi josh , i need some quick money here to help a brother out, so im thinking of unloading my whole bankroll (10k) on OSP . What ya think bud , he should win i think probly 85-90 percent of the time hey , line is at -360 on my site , and i usually hate laying that much juice but just looking for the safest pick for some quick cash . Your thoughts bro ?

Dont do it, he's only worth 8 units, no more than that.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Hi josh , i need some quick money here to help a brother out, so im thinking of unloading my whole bankroll (10k) on OSP . What ya think bud , he should win i think probly 85-90 percent of the time hey , line is at -360 on my site , and i usually hate laying that much juice but just looking for the safest pick for some quick cash . Your thoughts bro ?

get a job pal

[TPowell]

Looked at the Lahat fight more. Diego Rivas has fought a steady stream of bums (5 to be exact) before going on TUF and getting subbed in his first fight. He did bounce back with a decision win over Rubio in his UFC debut but the guy is a journeyman who didn't belong in the UFC anyway. Lahat seems like a well balanced fighter who has some rapidly improving boxing to go with his good BJJ. I believe Rivas is a blue belt in BJJ and while he can probably get the fight to the ground, I'm not sure he can keep him there or stay there without getting subbed eventually. The other big thing to me is that Rivas fights out of Okinawa Dojo which is basically a karate gym that doesn't have ANYONE else of note outside of 1 regional guy. On the other hand, Lahat is training at American Kickboxing Academy. One would think Rivas would be much improved in this fight at 24 years old and not having fought in 15 months, but I don't buy him getting much better at that joke of a gym. I think Lahat will be apart of a parlay for me. Not sure who else I'll fill it with yet since I plan on going with OSP straight

[TPowell]

Scratch that camp part about Rivas. I'm not sure wtf he's doing anymore. Here's a link that says he's working at 10th Planet Costa Mesa with Eddie Bravo in BJJ and the now CLOSED Reign gym that Mark Munoz used to own for wrestling. Now what I wanted to see for fading him. I'd like to see if the kid has been training this whole time or if he got hurt somewhere along the way. 15 months is a long time off at 24 years old and he would definitely be leaps and bounds better if he was working at those two gyms for the majority of the time.

[PaperTrail07]

I didnt get as good of a line as Josh so only played it for 1/2 the amount....+330 -But yes I am ----I am also on Burkman as well---big step down in competition for him --Should win $$

Thanks, Paper, made nice profit tailing your picks last time. You on Makovsky?

[JoshKnows46]

I didnt get as good of a line as Josh so only played it for 1/2 the amount....+330 -But yes I am ----I am also on Burkman as well---big step down in competition for him --Should win $$

It was 345 for me I believe when I played it, I got him at 400 by dec, because I believe this fight Goes the distance 90 percent of the time.

[JoshKnows46]

Looked at the Lahat fight more. Diego Rivas has fought a steady stream of bums (5 to be exact) before going on TUF and getting subbed in his first fight. He did bounce back with a decision win over Rubio in his UFC debut but the guy is a journeyman who didn't belong in the UFC anyway. Lahat seems like a well balanced fighter who has some rapidly improving boxing to go with his good BJJ. I believe Rivas is a blue belt in BJJ and while he can probably get the fight to the ground, I'm not sure he can keep him there or stay there without getting subbed eventually. The other big thing to me is that Rivas fights out of Okinawa Dojo which is basically a karate gym that doesn't have ANYONE else of note outside of 1 regional guy. On the other hand, Lahat is training at American Kickboxing Academy. One would think Rivas would be much improved in this fight at 24 years old and not having fought in 15 months, but I don't buy him getting much better at that joke of a gym. I think Lahat will be apart of a parlay for me. Not sure who else I'll fill it with yet since I plan on going with OSP straight

Was thinking I'd get a line at 220 to 260, at 350 Lahat isn't a play for me, the line is spot on. If I wouldn't play him straight, then I wouldn't parlay him either. Agree with the majority of your views.