UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Barnett (September 26, 2015)

**UncleChael** · 09-07-15, 01:44 PM

If anybody can do it... BIG ROY CAN!

**mirinquads** · 09-07-15, 01:58 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

BIG ROY CAN!

Exactly right, friend.

**UncleChael** · 09-07-15, 02:06 PM

Everybodys gonna be like "look at this guy", then the fat man lands the Big Right.

**Unwritten Law** · 09-08-15, 06:22 AM

Gonna be at the event! Looking forward to it but I'll admit, I'm not too fond of having Big Country headlining another main event. Last time I went to Saitama arena and Mark Hunt KO'd him in that main event. Not sure why Big Country gets the nod again. Would have preferred another opponent for Barnett like Cro Cop (I know he's Seoul bound).

**JIBBBY** · 09-08-15, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Everybodys gonna be like "look at this guy", then the fat man lands the Big Right.

That's how it usually goes with Roy if he is to win.. Wait for the KO prop.... This fight goes under as well.....

**UncleChael** · 09-08-15, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

That's how it usually goes with Roy if he is to win.. Wait for the KO prop.... This fight goes under as well.....

I don't think Big Roy will get finished.. but that's just me. Guys like Big Roy and the Diaz bros u gotta beat the hell outta to finish.. and GL with that.

**JIBBBY** · 09-08-15, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

I don't think Big Roy will get finished.. but that's just me. Guys like Big Roy and the Diaz bros u gotta beat the hell outta to finish.. and GL with that.

Mark Hunt just knocked out Roy Nelson.. Barnett can't take a punch and intimidate Big Country like Mark Hunt did though.. I guess it could go over rounds bet if Barnett is able to take down Fat boy Nelson and just lay on him for a few rounds.. I just think that if Roy Nelson is to win it's gonna be by KO in the 1st round..

If that doesn't happen then Roy gasses out in the second round as usual and Barnett probably wins...

I'm going Roy Nelson at +210 and by KO just because Barnett hasn't fought in 2 years (ring rust), he's also getting up in age now at 37 and with no PED's I don't know what to expect from him.. We know what we get out of Roy as he may just take it to Josh early in that 1st round and drop him..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Josh-Barnett-272

The under 1.5 at +125 is tempting also....

<small>UFC Fight Night 75 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Saitama Super Arena - Saitama, Japan - FS1</small>
Sat 9/26	1001 Roy Nelson	<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> +205	<input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4"> o1½ -145
11:59PM	1002 Josh Barnett	<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> -245	<input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4"> u1½ +125

**Unwritten Law** · 09-08-15, 07:12 PM

Big Country having dropping 4 of last 5, he's clearly on the decline and also getting up there in age (39). His last win was against a fellow washed up fighter, Big Nog.

Baby Face Assassin hasn't fought in nearly 2 years will have ring rust but taking some time off will probably help him since his KO lost to Hapa. He ate vicious elbows shooting for the takedown against the cage. Big Country will rely on his 1 punch as usual. I see Barnett taking Big Country to the ground and he uses his wrestling skills well and will belly hump him to either a submission (key lock) or decision. 5 round battle, I will look for a Barnett win via submission prop when it comes out.

**JIBBBY** · 09-08-15, 08:18 PM

^^ Never seen Roy Nelson tap out in a UFC fight don't think I will see it happen here.. Even with Josh's strong ground and submission game I'm not so convinced he can get Big Country to tap.. Roy doesn't get sub'd out in others words.. Roy might get pounded out by Josh but not sub'd out.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Roy-Nelson-10249

I think both of these guys are gonna gas out early.. Both are old and both are pretty much cans IMO.. Anything is possible after that 1st round for sure... May the better can win

Or

**Beelzebubzy** · 09-08-15, 10:03 PM

Roy loses and goes to bellator

**Unwritten Law** · 09-09-15, 01:49 AM

I don't see Roy winning at all. Barnett will also have his fan base in Japan cheering him on. It will be tough and certainly no easy task to submit Big Country as he's never tapped out. I probably wouldn't pull the trigger in a 3 rounder or maybe go small, but in a 5 round fight, I like the Baby Face Assassin's chances to threaten with several sub attempts.

**Sanity Check** · 09-09-15, 02:57 AM

Barnett is the current Metamoris HW champ, submitted Dean Lister and Ryron Gracie. He has been active in grappling comps even if he hasn't been fighting in the UFC. He still looks very dangerous. They both do.

**JIBBBY** · 09-09-15, 03:52 PM

I think Mousasi takes it to Uriah Hall.. Odds are stiff though

.. Parlay material...

**JIBBBY** · 09-09-15, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

Barnett is the current Metamoris HW champ, submitted Dean Lister and Ryron Gracie. He has been active in grappling comps even if he hasn't been fighting in the UFC. He still looks very dangerous. They both do.

Yeah, he out weighed Dean Lister by like 50 pounds in that grappling match, finally at the end he got the submission win after Dean was completely gassed out...

Roy Nelson grapples at a very high level as well but really is only effective from the top position which I don't see him getting with Josh Barnett..

I think Roy does his best to keep this one standing...

**UncleChael** · 09-09-15, 06:50 PM

Josh Barnett is light work.

**Sanity Check** · 09-10-15, 03:21 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Yeah, he out weighed Dean Lister by like 50 pounds in that grappling match, finally at the end he got the submission win after Dean was completely gassed out...

Roy Nelson grapples at a very high level as well but really is only effective from the top position which I don't see him getting with Josh Barnett..

I think Roy does his best to keep this one standing...

The weight difference between Lister and Barnett is a good point. I think Lister weighed around 220 for that match which isn't too far from the 230-240 bracket Cain Velasquez, Werdum and most successful heavyweights weigh in at. Not sure if weight makes more or less of a difference in grappling tournaments than it does MMA. I think Vinny Magalhaes defeated Fabricio Werdum at one of the ADCC's despite him being a 205'er and Werdum being a heavyweight. Then again ADCC rules are different from Metamoris rules so maybe the two can't really be compared.

Not sure how big Ryron Gracie is. It is possible Barnett's Metamoris opponents were a big undersized. But there are a lot of cases where the smaller, lighter, guy beats the taller, heavier, guy so I'm not sure if it means Barnett's opponents were hand picked or whether it means Barnett's natural grappling weight classs is thin enough that there's no one to challenge him.

The issue with Nelson grappling is, if he's put on his back and has to get back to his feet, he'll gas very quickly. Carrying all that excess weight won't allow Nelson to wrestle, grapple and get back up without exhausting himself. If Barnett can take Nelson down a few times, Nelson is probably done. Getting back up could mean Nelson will be too tired to do anything in the fight.

**mirinquads** · 09-10-15, 06:17 AM

Ryron Gracie is a welterweight basically. Tapping Lister is extremely impressive, size advantage or no. Besides, framewise Lister is about the same size as Nelson, as he's also a blown up middleweight.

**JIBBBY** · 09-10-15, 10:28 AM

Josh could just press forward immediately to clinch up, dirty box and smother Roy Nelson in an attempt to wear him down that way.. Maybe this will be a tough match up for Roy Nelson at his age after all..

Betting on the one big punch to land is usually not the smart thing to do.. However, if you're gonna gamble on the big punch landing it's not a bad idea to go with the big guys in the HW division and bank on that haymaker that Roy Nelson is known to throw and land with regularity..

It's kinda like the Dan Henderson theory.. Big right to land or bust... It's a gamble betting on Roy Nelson for sure.

**mirinquads** · 09-10-15, 11:25 AM

Roy Nelson RD 1 +575 if you think he wins

**Sanity Check** · 09-10-15, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Josh could just press forward immediately to clinch up, dirty box and smother Roy Nelson in an attempt to wear him down that way.. Maybe this will be a tough match up for Roy Nelson at his age after all..

That's what Frank Mir did when he fought Roy. Mir's takedowns took all the power out of Roy's punches.

On the flip side, Barnett's jaw isn't looking the most solid.

Its Barnett's jaw versus Roy's takedown defense and cardio, which will give out first.

**UncleChael** · 09-14-15, 11:27 AM

If I can hop on BIG Gus against Rumble at -220 , I can hop on Big Barnett at -250, no probs.

**UncleChael** · 09-14-15, 01:20 PM

Eagles win tonight and BIG BROWNE GOT LUCKY, 2 YEARS AGO.

**JIBBBY** · 09-14-15, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Eagles win tonight and BIG BROWNE GOT LUCKY, 2 YEARS AGO.

Liking the 49ers myself tonight with buying 1.5 points.. $330 to win $200...

Pending9/14/15 10:20pm NFL Football 492 San Francisco 49ers +3½ -165* <small>vs</small> Minnesota Vikings

Oh and did Big Travis Browne really get lucky or did he get elbowed to death 2 years ago?..

**UncleChael** · 09-14-15, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Liking the 49ers myself tonight with buying 1.5 points.. $330 to win $200...

Pending9/14/15 10:20pm NFL Football 492 San Francisco 49ers +3½ -165* <small>vs</small> Minnesota Vikings

Oh and Big Browne did get lucky 2 years ago..

For the 49ers, I'll play the ML also champ.

**UncleChael** · 09-14-15, 05:22 PM

I really have no clue about Football but Barnett gets it done.

**JIBBBY** · 09-14-15, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

Barnett gets it done.

If he doesn't get knocked out first trying.. Fat Country has power early on.. Ya never know with Roy oh boy Nelson????.. Barnett may catch one on the chin there chief...

but then again Unc you could be right...

**CaptChaos145** · 09-16-15, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by Sanity Check

That's what Frank Mir did when he fought Roy. Mir's takedowns took all the power out of Roy's punches.

On the flip side, Barnett's jaw isn't looking the most solid.

Its Barnett's jaw versus Roy's takedown defense and cardio, which will give out first.

I was at that fight years ago. Roy was very sick going into that fight against Mir and Mir could not hold Roy down.

If you notice no one can hold Roy down. he is very good at getting back to his feet. Josh will not take him down and hold him down and he certainly won't sub Roy. Roy has that 1 punch KO power so it could be a quick KO for Roy. I see Josh winning be dec - no other way.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 09-22-15, 12:54 PM

full card odds released...

**JIBBBY** · 09-22-15, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

full card odds released...

I don't know alot of these Asian fighters.. How do you bet a bunch of Asian fighters fighting in Japan? Very tricky.. I think I'm out on most of this card... Will tune in for the Roy Nelson and Gerard Mousasi fight with major interest though..

<small>UFC Fight Night 75 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Saitama Super Arena - Saitama, Japan - FS1</small>
Sat 9/26	1001 Roy Nelson	<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> +220	<input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4"> o1½ -145
11:59PM	1002 Josh Barnett	<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> -260	<input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4"> u1½ +125
<small>UFC Fight Night 75 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Saitama Super Arena - Saitama, Japan - FS1</small>
Sat 9/26	1101 Uriah Hall	<input id="editx" name="M1_1" size="4"> +360	<input id="editx" name="L1_1" size="4"> o2½ -145
11:59PM	1102 Gegard Mousasi	<input id="editx" name="M2_1" size="4"> -450	<input id="editx" name="L2_1" size="4"> u2½ +125
<small>UFC Fight Night 75 - Flyweight 3 rounds - Saitama Super Arena - Saitama, Japan - FS1</small>
Sat 9/26	1201 Chico Camus	<input id="editx" name="M1_2" size="4"> +255	<input id="editx" name="L1_2" size="4"> o2½ -260
11:30PM	1202 Kyoji Horiguchi	<input id="editx" name="M2_2" size="4"> -365	<input id="editx" name="L2_2" size="4"> u2½ +180
<small>UFC Fight Night 75 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Saitama Super Arena - Saitama, Japan - FS1</small>
Sat 9/26	1301 George Roop	<input id="editx" name="M1_3" size="4"> +175	<input id="editx" name="L1_3" size="4"> o2½ -195
11:00PM	1302 Takeya Mizugaki	<input id="editx" name="M2_3" size="4"> -245	<input id="editx" name="L2_3" size="4"> u2½ +155
<small>UFC Fight Night 75 - Bantamweight 3 rounds - Saitama Super Arena - Saitama, Japan - FS1</small>
Sat 9/26	1401 Alan Yoshihiro Yamaniha	<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +130	<input id="editx" name="L1_4" size="4"> o2½ -150
10:30PM	1402 Norifumi Yamamoto	<input id="editx" name="M2_4" size="4"> -170	<input id="editx" name="L2_4" size="4"> u2½ +110
<small>UFC Fight Night 75 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Saitama Super Arena - Saitama, Japan - FS1</small>
Sat 9/26	1501 Teruto Ishihara	<input id="editx" name="M1_5" size="4"> +175	<input id="editx" name="L1_5" size="4"> o2½ -190
10:00PM	1502 Mizuto Hirota	<input id="editx" name="M2_5" size="4"> -245	<input id="editx" name="L2_5" size="4"> u2½ +150
<small>UFC Fight Night 75 - Middleweight 3 rounds - Saitama Super Arena - Saitama, Japan - FS2</small>
Sat 9/26	1601 Katsunori Kikuno	<input id="editx" name="M1_6" size="4"> +170	<input id="editx" name="L1_6" size="4"> o1½ -155
9:30PM	1602 Diego Brandao	<input id="editx" name="M2_6" size="4"> -230	<input id="editx" name="L2_6" size="4"> u1½ +115
Sat 9/26	1701 Keita Nakamura	<input id="editx" name="M1_7" size="4"> +160	<input id="editx" name="L1_7" size="4"> o2½ -190
9:00PM	1702 Li Jingliang	<input id="editx" name="M2_7" size="4"> -210	<input id="editx" name="L2_7" size="4"> u2½ +150
Sat 9/26	1801 Yusuke Kasuya	<input id="editx" name="M1_8" size="4"> +200	<input id="editx" name="L1_8" size="4"> o2½ -170
8:30PM	1802 Nick Hein	<input id="editx" name="M2_8" size="4"> -280	<input id="editx" name="L2_8" size="4"> u2½ +130
Sat 9/26	1901 Kajan Johnson	<input id="editx" name="M1_9" size="4"> -270	<input id="editx" name="L1_9" size="4"> o1½ -180
8:00PM	1902 Naoyuki Kotani	<input id="editx" name="M2_9" size="4"> +190	<input id="editx" name="L2_9" size="4"> u1½ +140

**JIBBBY** · 09-22-15, 01:18 PM

In on George Roop and Chico Camus as dogs...

Diego Brandao and Nick Hein I like as favorites also...

**JIBBBY** · 09-22-15, 04:11 PM

Well here are your event write ups as they come in.. Some information to go on anyways in regards to some of these relatively unknown Asian fighters.....

SB Nation mma mania - (prelims part 1) - http://www.mmamania.com/2015/9/21/93...ions-japan-mma

Combatpress - http://combatpress.com/2015/09/toe-t...d-predictions/

Bleacher report - (burning questions leading in) - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...fight-night-75

**CaDDyy** · 09-22-15, 04:47 PM

roy nelson +220 for all the monies

**JIBBBY** · 09-23-15, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by CaDDyy

roy nelson +220 for all the monies

Better Value taking him with the KO prop.. Roy isn't gonna win by decision and most likely won't land a submission win either against Barnett..

1037 Nelson wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_17" size="4"> +340

Or even better 1st round like Miri said.. Roy will be gassed out after 1 round and will be hanging on after that...

1015 Nelson wins in round 1

<input id="editx" name="M1_6" size="4"> +650

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Flip side Barnett for the 2nd or 3rd round finishes are tempting once Fat 40 year old Roy starts breathing hard..

1027 Barnett wins in round 2

<input id="editx" name="M1_12" size="4"> +450

1029 Barnett wins in round 3

<input id="editx" name="M1_13" size="4"> +900

Not very good value with the Barnett by KO or Sub props either..

1039 Barnett wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_18" size="4"> +295

1041 Barnett wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_19" size="4"> +205

**JIBBBY** · 09-23-15, 07:55 PM

I could see Gerard Mousasi winning by decision.. For better odds this may be worth the look instead of the straight play at -425..

Not convinced Mousasi can knock out Hall either.. Chris Weidman did get the Ko on Hall but that was 5 years ago and Weidman is the champ today.. Uriah Hall has never met a very skilled submission guy yet either IMO.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Uriah-Hall-14210

1111 Mousasi wins by 3 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_34" size="4"> +110

Maybe worth the long shot try...

1131 Mousasi wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_44" size="4"> +470

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Flip side Hall can throw down and maybe land something, decent value with this prop anyways.. Does have 7 ko's in 11 of his wins..

1129 Hall wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_43" size="4"> +715