UFC 189: Aldo vs. McGregor (July 11, 2015)

PaperTrail07 · 07-08-15, 01:10 PM

JIBBBY still any reason why Magalhaes fight is not shown on the UFC.com website? only betting sites have it up

bjpenn85 · 07-08-15, 02:28 PM

Gabe money, or real money?

fitguy67 · 07-08-15, 04:55 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Kind of agree, I think the line is about correct and Stephens is a lot more stiff than the fighters who have toasted Bermudez in the past. But out of principle i refuse to lay substantial money on Bermudez, he's wild and has a bad chin, thus I played Stephens TKO +430 tiny and left it there. Bermudez decision at +130 or whatever is an alright bet though

i parlayed Bermudez with Thatch @+143...but i agree that your method of victory plays here (Stephens TKO+430/Bermudez DEC+130) worth a consideration vs the +175/-210 ml's...

I really liked the point u made here or the other thread that the ME should have "do not pound" all over it...and comparing its line with the Thatch/Nelson fight provides a good case in point...we now have nearly identical (-190ish) price to back Thatch v Gunni as McG v Mini...but it's WAY easier to OBJECTIVELY support your reasoning to lay 190 on Thatch to win a 100 than to explain why you'd do the same on Conor...

the answer to the riddle of the ridiculously huge bet-volumes (absolutely and relatively) books are enjoying on this McGregorfight is captured in the title of this classic plain-vanilla pop oldie

JIBBBY · 07-08-15, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

JIBBBY still any reason why Magalhaes fight is not shown on the UFC.com website? only betting sites have it up

Have no idea Paper why that fight isn't up on the UFC website??? That is strange...http://www.ufc.com/

Still there are no indications or news being reported that the fight is cancelled from what I've seen or read.. It's obviously a glitch on the website if I had to guess.. The betting line remains up on 5D and that's the best indication that the fight is still a go..

I'd place or just wait if that's your plan.. That line doesn't seem to be moving one way or the other anyways...

beermankirk · 07-08-15, 06:53 PM

Connor getting bet up 10c-15c a day... what will he close at gone from +105 to -185... Didnt see this going to -200, but maybe -250?

JoshKnows46 · 07-08-15, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

i parlayed Bermudez with Thatch @+143...but i agree that your method of victory plays here (Stephens TKO+430/Bermudez DEC+130) worth a consideration vs the +175/-210 ml's...

I really liked the point u made here or the other thread that the ME should have "do not pound" all over it...and comparing its line with the Thatch/Nelson fight provides a good case in point...we now have nearly identical (-190ish) price to back Thatch v Gunni as McG v Mini...but it's WAY easier to OBJECTIVELY support your reasoning to lay 190 on Thatch to win a 100 than to explain why you'd do the same on Conor...

the answer to the riddle of the ridiculously huge bet-volumes (absolutely and relatively) books are enjoying on this McGregorfight is captured in the title of this classic plain-vanilla pop oldie

I slighty favor thatch in that fight and surely wouldn't place a bet on him at -190, not even a minimum bet, same with Bermudez, both are coin flip fights. You'd most likely come out better betting the underdogs in both those fights, 2 of the riskier favorites on the card. Conor is still extremely undervalued at his current price.

Thor4140 · 07-08-15, 09:19 PM

Stevens was once my favorite fighter but now reminds me of hendo. Same style over an over again and declining every fight. Yeah I know Boetsch.

JoshKnows46 · 07-08-15, 10:47 PM

Another $2000 on Mister McGregor, won't be surprised to see this line go up over -250 for you unfortunate Mendes bettors. Sharps hit it early and often, and Irish peeps gonna hit it late. another $1000 on Rory

Attached Files

fitguy67 · 07-08-15, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by JoshKnows46

Another $2000 on Mister McGregor, won't be surprised to see this line go up over -250 for you unfortunate Mendes bettors. Sharps hit it early and often, and Irish peeps gonna hit it late. another $1000 on Rory

still a few days for dem irish guv-packets to be cashed and Paddy-Powered into sum'ting special: Connor McWelfare

mirinquads · 07-09-15, 03:23 AM

Originally posted by JoshKnows46

I slighty favor thatch in that fight and surely wouldn't place a bet on him at -190, not even a minimum bet, same with Bermudez, both are coin flip fights. You'd most likely come out better betting the underdogs in both those fights, 2 of the riskier favorites on the card. Conor is still extremely undervalued at his current price.

Now that's your capping. However, Thatch has both the style and size advantage here. Only place Nelson has the advantage is the ground and cardio, but his takedowns are not good.
A lot more wild cards in the Mendes/Conor fight, that's just a fact.

PaperTrail07 · 07-09-15, 10:23 AM

Agree just odd for an organization that big to not post a fight--

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Have no idea Paper why that fight isn't up on the UFC website??? That is strange...http://www.ufc.com/

Still there are no indications or news being reported that the fight is cancelled from what I've seen or read.. It's obviously a glitch on the website if I had to guess.. The betting line remains up on 5D and that's the best indication that the fight is still a go..

I'd place or just wait if that's your plan.. That line doesn't seem to be moving one way or the other anyways...

PaperTrail07 · 07-09-15, 10:24 AM

Just in case #1) UFC Fighting
Selection : C. Mendes 7/11/2015 9:05PM - (PST) Money Line +160 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : R. Lawler 7/11/2015 8:35PM - (PST) Money Line +155 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : J. Stephens 7/11/2015 8:05PM - (PST) Money Line +175 for Game

#4) UFC Fighting
Selection : G. Nelson 7/11/2015 7:35PM - (PST) Money Line +155 for Game

#5) UFC Fighting
Selection : M. Swick 7/11/2015 6:05PM - (PST) Money Line +325 for Game

Risking : 5.72 To Win : 1,124.52 USD

PaperTrail07 · 07-09-15, 10:25 AM

#1) UFC Fighting
Selection : M. Brown 7/11/2015 6:35PM - (PST) Money Line -195 for Game

#2) UFC Fighting
Selection : C. Pendred 7/11/2015 5:35PM - (PST) Money Line -115 for Game

#3) UFC Fighting
Selection : A. Garcia 7/11/2015 6:05PM - (PST) Money Line -425 for Game

#4) UFC Fighting
Selection : C. Garbrandt 7/11/2015 5:05PM - (PST) Money Line -780 for Game

#5) UFC Fighting
Selection : L. Smolka 7/11/2015 4:30PM - (PST) Money Line -115 for Game

#6) UFC Fighting
Selection : Y. Cedeno 7/11/2015 4:00PM - (PST) Money Line -205 for Game

Risking : 80.00 To Win : 797.13 USD

PaperTrail07 · 07-09-15, 10:27 AM

Brown is the Big bet

Obviously im torn on the main fight......-------

bjpenn85 · 07-09-15, 10:57 AM

Bet ticket? Brandaon thatch is a pretty sweet bet. Less risk than conor/mendes fight. Since we havent seen mcregors ground game thats an x-factor. Where is the x-factor in thatch vs nelson? We know about nelsons poor takedowns and thatch good tdd. I dont need to know more than that. You on the other end, have a 50/50 shot losing 3000 dollars, you actually need some luck, so, here it is: Good luck!

JIBBBY · 07-09-15, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Bet ticket? Brandaon thatch is a pretty sweet bet. Less risk than conor/mendes fight. Since we havent seen mcregors ground game thats an x-factor. Where is the x-factor in thatch vs nelson? We know about nelsons poor takedowns and thatch good tdd. I dont need to know more than that. You on the other end, have a 50/50 shot losing 3000 dollars, you actually need some luck, so, here it is: Good luck!

Love Thatch to rebound after that tough Bendo loss BJ!!!!..

Thatch lost in the 4th round with Bendo mainly because he was gassing out so in this 3 rounder he should be golden if it goes the distance.... Gunnar Nelson is a bit overated IMO, looked less then good against Rick Story, he's not fighting in his own back yard for once either in this fight.. Most likely he's gonna get his arse handed to him in this one.....

Gunnar Nelson's only chance is to get Thatch to the ground and try to sub him out. I don't see that happening..
Solid play me tinks even at -185..

PaperTrail07 · 07-09-15, 01:22 PM

PEOPLE's CHAMP---understand people--once in a lifetime trip with a lot of saving up---100% i was taking a fight----HELL YES.....how do you not respect that!?!?!.............love the guy

JIBBBY · 07-09-15, 01:34 PM

Mendes now at +160 on 5d and still climbing.. Wait... Wait.... Wait... Then place!!!

<small>UFC 189 - Featherweight 5 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
Sat 7/11	1001 Conor McGregor	<input id="editx" name="M1_7" size="4"> -185	<input id="editx" name="L1_7" size="4"> o2½ -105
11:59PM	1002 Chad Mendes	<input id="editx" name="M2_7" size="4"> +160	<input id="editx" name="L2_7" size="4"> u2½ -115

This Mendes prop is tempting for value by the way -

1009 Mendes wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_3" name="radiox" type="radio">+399

JIBBBY · 07-09-15, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Brown is the Big bet

Gotta fade ya on this one pal... Tim Means is just as scrapy and tough as Matt Brown.. Once he weathers the early storm and Brown starts to slow Dirty Bird gets the KO.

Brown is gonna have a hard time dealing with the length and striking of Dirty Bird me tinks.. 16 ko's to his name Dirty Bird is sporting just for the record..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tim-Means-11281

Pending7/11/15 9:30pm Props Fighting 1529 Means wins by TKO/KO +500* <small>vs</small> Any other result

mirinquads · 07-09-15, 01:53 PM

Yeah, Brown is so easy to knock out.

JIBBBY · 07-09-15, 02:00 PM

If Mike Swick can regain his old form this KO prop could possibly happen.. Alex Garcia has been dropped before..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alex-Garcia-54124

Most of Swicks wins have come by way of KO also in years past..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mike-Swick-5199

It's a long shot for sure as I think Swick probably loses this fight but that KO prop at +905 still might be worth the long shot try..

1729 Swick wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_159" name="radiox" type="radio">+905

JIBBBY · 07-09-15, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Yeah, Brown is so easy to knock out.

True but how many times have we've seen Brown rocked or out on his feet especially from body shots late in fights? A few times... Dirty Bird won't let him off the hook if that happens in this fight..

Dirty Bird is very nasty with his knees and punches.. In case you forget check the vid below.

mirinquads · 07-09-15, 02:29 PM

I have never seen him out on his feet from bodyshots. Nobody has let him off the hook at all in those situations. He's just so tough that he get's back up. If you think he trades evenly with Lawler for 5 rounds, but get's put out by Means, I'm not sure what to tell you.

He could sub him, however.

JIBBBY · 07-09-15, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by mirinquads

I have never seen him out on his feet from bodyshots. Nobody has let him off the hook at all in those situations. He's just so tough that he get's back up. If you think he trades evenly with Lawler for 5 rounds, but get's put out by Means, I'm not sure what to tell you.

He could sub him, however.

Matt Brown has been rocked before on several occasions, check his past fights... He's also lost 13 fights in his pro career which makes him very capable of losing at any time...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Matt-Brown-14310

Oh and Robbie Lawler has become a decision machine lately going to the final bell in 4 of his last 5 fights, so going the distance with Lawler isn't what it use to be.. Tim Means is alot taller and a completely different style match up for Matt Brown.. He has 2 inches and reach on Brown..

I do agree that Means could get the submission though if not the KO...

1527 Means wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_122" size="4"> +788

blazes_bff · 07-09-15, 03:25 PM

Main event breakdown

PaperTrail07 · 07-09-15, 03:41 PM

He has 1/2 the power and heart JIBBBY.....guy lives near me and is the definition of grinder.....on another note I just talked with Josh Samman....cool MF'er....says he will win by TKO in the 2nd....

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Gotta fade ya on this one pal... Tim Means is just as scrapy and tough as Matt Brown.. Once he weathers the early storm and Brown starts to slow Dirty Bird gets the KO.

Brown is gonna have a hard time dealing with the length and striking of Dirty Bird me tinks.. 16 ko's to his name Dirty Bird is sporting just for the record..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tim-Means-11281

Pending7/11/15 9:30pm Props Fighting 1529 Means wins by TKO/KO +500* <small>vs</small> Any other result

PaperTrail07 · 07-09-15, 03:43 PM

The dirty Bird will be put to sleep in the 1st round JIBBBY....heard it here first

UncleChael · 07-09-15, 03:43 PM

FINAL - Thatch/Brown parlay. Jermery Stephens +170. Red King -170. Conrad -143. Lock it up.. Lock it up.. Lock it up .. Lock it up..

JAKEPEAVY21 · 07-09-15, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Gotta fade ya on this one pal... Tim Means is just as scrapy and tough as Matt Brown.. Once he weathers the early storm and Brown starts to slow Dirty Bird gets the KO.

Brown is gonna have a hard time dealing with the length and striking of Dirty Bird me tinks.. 16 ko's to his name Dirty Bird is sporting just for the record..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tim-Means-11281

Pending7/11/15 9:30pm Props Fighting 1529 Means wins by TKO/KO +500* <small>vs</small> Any other result

agree jibby..also Means is in great form and on a tear in new weight class and Brown is coming off injury, not much action the past year or 2 and a loss in his last fight.

PaperTrail07 · 07-09-15, 04:06 PM

Honest Anwser.....Has Means actually beat anyone that is a top fighter? 100% no IMO....this is a step DOWN in competition for Brown...

PaperTrail07 · 07-09-15, 04:08 PM

Means did do 4 years in Prison though.....so he is tough lol--Both ex Drug Addicts.....wild brawl here lol

JAKEPEAVY21 · 07-09-15, 04:08 PM

true paper..I think it will be a potential FOTN...Means has looked damn good in his last few fights though

beermankirk · 07-09-15, 04:48 PM

All those irish folks gonna pound that McGregor line upto -300 at the MGM. Gonna get pounded harder than Bambi in the back lot of Ellis Island casino... Bet Mendes late if you want him.

UncleChael · 07-09-15, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by UncleChael

FINAL - Thatch/Brown parlay. Jermery Stephens +170. Red King -170. Conrad -143. Lock it up.. Lock it up.. Lock it up .. Lock it up..

Switching my bet probs, Gonna play the dog (Mendes) but hope for Conrad to get the W for the UFC..
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/gdirmHXijH4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>

JIBBBY · 07-09-15, 05:10 PM

Originally posted by PaperTrail07

Honest Anwser.....Has Means actually beat anyone that is a top fighter? 100% no IMO....this is a step DOWN in competition for Brown...

All Matt Brown does is lose to top fighters lately... So it's a gray area... Means has won 4 in row and 6 of his last 7.. He's the hotter fighter going in..