UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Thatch (February 14, 2015)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

FOX Sports 1, 10 p.m. ET
Stephen Thompson vs. Brandon Thatch
Max Holloway vs. Cole Miller
Kiichi Kunimoto vs. Neil Magny
Daniel Kelly vs. Patrick Walsh
Michel Prazeres vs. Kevin Lee
Ray Borg vs. Chris Kelades

FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET
Nik Lentz vs. Thiago Tavares
Efrain Escudero vs. Rodrigo Lima
Jim Alers vs. Chas Skelly
Tim Elliott vs. Zach Makovsky

UFC Fight Pass, 7:30 p.m. ET
Jake Lindsey vs. James Moontasri

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

rumor Thompson is injured and off this card

[Kermit]

rumor Thompson is injured and off this card

Unreal.

[Imsmarterthanu]

yep confirmed broken rib

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Anyone have a guess as to why Holloway is -288 vs Miller? What is Millers path to victory?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Is Holloway injured?

[Beelzebubzy]

Bendo is in to get koed

[JIBBBY]

So this is our next UFC card... Alrighty then!!!!!

Looking at parlaying up Max Holloway and Neil Magny for starters.. $150 to win $100... Those should be wins for both..

[JIBBBY]

A few articles coming in maybe worth reading.. Bendo steps in which we already know...

Liking mostly all the favorites on this card so far..

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2349727-benson-henderson-moves-up-in-weight-to-take-on-brandon-thatch-at-fight-night-60

Did hit this play before the odds get any worse...

290964788-1

2/3/15 2:37pm

$195.00

$100.00

Pending

2/14/15 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1802 Chas Skelly -195* <small>vs</small> Jim Alers

[Jim_Gunn]

Thatch is a bigger more powerful RDA and we all saw what RDA did to Henderson. I predict a first or second round Thatch KO of Bendo, especially with the latter stepping up in weight class on short notice. So I took the under 2½ rounds when it peaked at +130 yesterday for $100.00 to win $130.00.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Thatch is a bigger more powerful RDA and we all saw what RDA did to Henderson. I predict a first or second round Thatch KO of Bendo, especially with the latter stepping up in weight class on short notice. So I took the under 2½ rounds when it peaked at +130 yesterday for $100.00 to win $130.00.

Same here. Although I am not as certain as you that Thatch will be able to stop Bendo's takedowns. Rhodes & Thiago were able to easily take Thatch down. Furthermore, Thatch has been training for Thompson (striker) not a wrestler. I guess we will see whether or not Thatch's TD defense has significantly improved.

[JIBBBY]

Bendo coming up in weight is not good against Thatch.. I agree!!!

I'm waiting to place.. The Bendo name and the fact that he did just do well against Cowboy should make that line grow closer to even come fight time one would think..

[beamz]

Eyeing a few plays, but what are the thoughts of Tim Elliot as a dog? Will be doing a few parlays with Holloway.

[fitguy67]

Thatch is a bigger more powerful RDA and we all saw what RDA did to Henderson. I predict a first or second round Thatch KO of Bendo, especially with the latter stepping up in weight class on short notice. So I took the under 2½ rounds when it peaked at +130 yesterday for $100.00 to win $130.00.

fold in the fact that a blown-up true feather-weight, name of Frankie Edgar rocked him several times (too lazy to look up but i'd say scored at least 2, possibly 3 knockdowns) in their 2 fights...imagine the difference of getting hit by a volume-striking FW vs. a WW KO-specialist...

true that Thatch has to get it done fairly early or risk swimming in uncharted cardio waters...but he certainly should have enough raw firepower advantage (a la RDA) to get it done at least the 60% of the time required by the current -150 price...

i like your under play too, jG...will buy me sumadat

[Jim_Gunn]

Same here. Although I am not as certain as you that Thatch will be able to stop Bendo's takedowns. Rhodes & Thiago were able to easily take Thatch down. Furthermore, Thatch has been training for Thompson (striker) not a wrestler. I guess we will see whether or not Thatch's TD defense has significantly improved.

When was the last time Henderson used a wrestling heavy game plan and went for and completed a takedown? Look how he fought Cowboy recently, pretty much all stand up.

[fitguy67]

Anyone have a guess as to why Holloway is -288 vs Miller? What is Millers path to victory?

bump...puzzles me as well...can anyone make a plausible case for why Holloway isn't a much bigger fave? for example, boetsch--with similar odds than Miller has here--seemed to have had a much better crack at leites (with a crystal clear path to victory...that he damn near executed, btw)...much harder to construct a favorabe scenario for Miller here...

[JIBBBY]

^^Holloway is gonna steam roll right through Cole Miller.. Odds should be higher and I don't see a path way to victory of any kind for Cole Miller.. He certainly can't out strike Holloway and won't be able to win it on the ground either.. Max Holloway is the solid play for sure..

Already got that chalked up...

[Karmaphobia]

Eyeing a few plays, but what are the thoughts of Tim Elliot as a dog? Will be doing a few parlays with Holloway.

Not sure he's the guy to beat Makovsky's wrestling. I think the lines are correct.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

When was the last time Henderson used a wrestling heavy game plan and went for and completed a takedown? Look how he fought Cowboy recently, pretty much all stand up.

When was the last time that he needed to. He didn't need to desperately go for takedowns vs Cowboy. He will vs Thatch.

[fitguy67]

Looking at parlaying up Max Holloway and Neil Magny for starters.. $150 to win $100... Those should be wins for both..

i'm not big on parlaying big faves...but when you've got two like holloway and magny that appear to be considerably "less big" faves than they "should be"...your parlay (now at -158) still seems a solid way to go...at least as good as putting on separate "method of victory" plays on each to reduce chalk...then having both win but at least one of 'em in the wrong way, leading to gambler's migraine ...

[Jim_Gunn]

When was the last time that he needed to. He didn't need to desperately go for takedowns vs Cowboy. He will vs Thatch.

Desperate may be the operative word. Bendo hasn't wrestled in a long time. Once fighters get out of the habit of wrestling they rarely ever go back, at least not with any effectiveness.

[fitguy67]

^classic example=Dan Henderson^

[Imsmarterthanu]

henderson hasn't grown as a fighter he is boring and predictable while thatch is unpredictable confusing and a large welterweight with a wide range of tools.

thatch is gonna murk bendo

bendo will probably try and shoot for a takedown in the fight get stuffed and hit with knees he's never felt before

he's trying to stay relative by taking the fight but he made a big mistake picking a relatively unknown guy outside the inner mma circle. MMA fighters who have trained with thatch have said watch out for that guy

[Beelzebubzy]

Desperate may be the operative word. Bendo hasn't wrestled in a long time. Once fighters get out of the habit of wrestling they rarely ever go back, at least not with any effectiveness.

Frankie Edgar says hi.

[JIBBBY]

i'm not big on parlaying big faves...but when you've got two like holloway and magny that appear to be considerably "less big" faves than they "should be"...your parlay (now at -158) still seems a solid way to go...at least as good as putting on separate "method of victory" plays on each to reduce chalk...then having both win but at least one of 'em in the wrong way, leading to gambler's migraine ...

I can't argue your logic fitguy.. Parlays up your chances of losing the overall bet but they do reduce and minimize the damage of monies that could be lost also.. It's something you have to factor in and weigh out as far as the pros and cons are concerned..

I personally won't bet the straights in MMA if the odds get over -200 these days so I turn to 2 team parlays or sometimes more instead.. I don't touch a straight or parlay play if the odds get around the -400 or more as it's just not worth the risk vs reward period.. I'll look to props or o/u's instead...

I like to play the entire card to be informed on all fights and also to be entertained while watching.. That's my bad as I should only bet a few fights on the card that I think have the best chance to win.. That would most likely up my winning percentages card to card..

[JIBBBY]

Desperate may be the operative word. Bendo hasn't wrestled in a long time. Once fighters get out of the habit of wrestling they rarely ever go back, at least not with any effectiveness.

Kos is a good example of that...I think it's a recipe for failure when fighters turn away from their strengths.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Desperate may be the operative word. Bendo hasn't wrestled in a long time. Once fighters get out of the habit of wrestling they rarely ever go back, at least not with any effectiveness.

So do you believe that Mike Rhodes & Paulo Thiago have better wrestling than Bendo? Both Rhodes & Thiago were able to take Thatch down. Go back and watch both fights.

[PunisherIND]

I can't argue your logic fitguy.. Parlays up your chances of losing the overall bet but they do reduce and minimize the damage of monies that could be lost also.. It's something you have to factor in and weigh out as far as the pros and cons are concerned..

I personally won't bet the straights in MMA if the odds get over -200 these days so I turn to 2 team parlays or sometimes more instead.. I don't touch a straight or parlay play if the odds get around the -400 or more as it's just not worth the risk vs reward period.. I'll look to props or o/u's instead...

I like to play the entire card to be informed on all fights and also to be entertained while watching.. That's my bad as I should only bet a few fights on the card that I think have the best chance to win.. That would most likely up my winning percentages card to card..

[Beelzebubzy]

Youre wrong.

[Jim_Gunn]

So do you believe that Mike Rhodes & Paulo Thiago have better wrestling than Bendo? Both Rhodes & Thiago were able to take Thatch down. Go back and watch both fights.

Benson is a better wrestler than Rhodes & Thiago. I just doubt he will use it effectively or be successful trying to not only take Thatch down but keep him down and make anything out of it. Just because a fighter can do something doesn't mean that they will, even if it is in their best strategic interest to do so.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Benson is a better wrestler than Rhodes & Thiago. I just doubt he will use it effectively or be successful trying to not only take Thatch down but keep him down and make anything out of it. Just because a fighter can do something doesn't mean that they will, even if it is in their best strategic interest to do so.

Well I hope that you are correct. But, I heard an interview where Bendo alluded to using his wrestling skill in order to get the win vs Thatch. "Even if it is boring for the fans". Keep in mind I am merely sharing information in order to temper any irrational exuberance that one may have for betting the house on Thatch. I have the under @ +130. And also a small play on Thatch straight. However, I will NOT be surprised if Bendo is able to mix in key takedowns and score a decision victory.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Bendo coming up in weight will probably make his wrestling less effective.. Bendo has abandoned his wrestling anyways in recent fights.. I can't remember him shooting once against Cowboy but I was drunk at the time and could be mistaken....

[Jim_Gunn]

Well I hope that you are correct. But, I heard an interview where Bendo alluded to using his wrestling skill in order to get the win vs Thatch. "Even if it is boring for the fans". Keep in mind I am merely sharing information in order to temper any irrational exuberance that one may have for betting the house on Thatch. I have the under @ +130. And also a small play on Thatch straight. However, I will NOT be surprised if Bendo is able to mix in key takedowns and score a decision victory.

I agree that this isn't a house betting fight. The nice thing about the under 2½ is that it also allows for a Benson sub if he is able to get it before the mid-point of the fight. If it goes to a decision victory for either fighter of course, it's a loser. That's why they call it gambling!

[Jim_Gunn]

Thatch down to -120? Had to bet that straight up at that price, $240.00 to win $200.00.

[Beelzebubzy]

As Vaughany would say