UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Thatch (February 14, 2015)

[JIBBBY]

More props came out.. The Thatch by KO prop at +170 is tempting but I'm trying to weigh it up against the Thatch win inside the distance prop (safer play) for the odds.. Hmmm?

Sat 2/14

1005 Thatch wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_1" name="radiox" type="radio">+143

Sat 2/14

1037 Thatch wins by TKO/KO

<input id="radiox" value="M1_17" name="radiox" type="radio">+170

Then you also got under 2 1/2 rounds for the fight at +130....

[marzwoody]

^ Just go all in bendo Jibbeh and thank me later

[Beelzebubzy]

+1115

+1115

-2345

Porlay it boyz.

[JIBBBY]

^^^Massive odds for that sub win Beelz... It's a long shot though...

Unless Thatch rocks Bendo standing first and then sub's him out after it's probably not happening.. Much like Pettis did... Bendo competes in grappling tourney's all the time and is very solid rolling..

[JIBBBY]

^ Just go all in bendo Jibbeh and thank me later

If some of you fellas are banking on Bendo for the win you may wanna consider this prop.. Bendo stick and move standing but mostly lay and pray for 5 rounds would probably be his most likely path way to victory if it happens... 10 of Bendo's last 13 fights have gone the distance but those were all at the lower weight class...

Sat 2/14

1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +280

[Beelzebubzy]

^^^Massive odds for that sub win Beelz... It's a long shot though...

Unless Thatch rocks Bendo standing first and then sub's him out after it's probably not happening.. Much like Pettis did... Bendo competes in grappling tourney's all the time and is very solid rolling..

No im playing not sub!

[marzwoody]

If some of you fellas are banking on Bendo for the win you may wanna consider this prop.. Bendo stick and move standing but mostly lay and pray for 5 rounds would probably be his most likely path way to victory if it happens... 10 of Bendo's last 13 fights have gone the distance but those were all at the lower weight class...

Sat 2/14

1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision

<input id="editx" name="M1_4" size="4"> +280

Think i might play points and sub since those are his only 2 routes to victory in my eyes. most likely dec though.

[Jim_Gunn]

I added .4u on Thatch by KO/TKO at +170.

[Jim_Gunn]

Few other props I like the value on: .10u on Thatch wins in round 1 +500; .20u on Kelly by submission at +520; and .10u on Miller by submission at +1050.

[JIBBBY]

Now that mostly all the props are out I'm thinking and moving onto the next fight..

Max Holloway vs Cole Miller - Max has 3 Ko's in his last 4 fight wins, kinda on a tear and looking great.. Cole Miller has pieced together a few wins himself.. Cole has the experience edge going in with more then twice the fights under his belt... Still you gotta think Cole Miller is not going to be able to stand and last with Max Holloway.. We've seen Cole get dropped before.. This 23 year old kid in Max Holloway is probably gonna be too fast and athletic for Cole Miller as that's my best guess.. KO coming perhaps? http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Max-Holloway-38671

Since we have a week to go we might as well talk prop plays since the straights for this card are already nailed down for most of us already..

<small>Cole Miller vs Max Holloway - Featherweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 60 propositions</small>
Sat 2/14		1103 Miller / Holloway goes 3 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_28" size="4"> -120
11:59PM		1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_28" size="4"> -110
Sat 2/14		1105 Miller wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_29" size="4"> +579
11:59PM		1106 Not Miller inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_29" size="4"> -995
Sat 2/14		1107 Miller wins by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_30" size="4"> +555
11:59PM		1108 Not Miller by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_30" size="4"> -935
Sat 2/14		1109 Holloway wins inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M1_31" size="4"> +152
11:59PM		1110 Not Holloway inside distance		<input id="editx" name="M2_31" size="4"> -182
Sat 2/14		1111 Holloway wins by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M1_32" size="4"> +143
11:59PM		1112 Not Holloway by 3 round decision		<input id="editx" name="M2_32" size="4"> -173
Sat 2/14		1113 Miller / Holloway draw		<input id="editx" name="M1_33" size="4"> +9000
11:59PM		1114 Fight not a draw		<input id="editx" name="M2_33" size="4"> -25000
Sat 2/14		1115 Miller wins in round 1		<input id="editx" name="M1_34" size="4"> +1125
11:59PM		1116 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_34" size="4"> -2375
Sat 2/14		1117 Miller wins in round 2		<input id="editx" name="M1_35" size="4"> +1400
11:59PM		1118 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_35" size="4"> -3600
Sat 2/14		1119 Miller wins in round 3		<input id="editx" name="M1_36" size="4"> +2400
11:59PM		1120 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_36" size="4"> -7200
Sat 2/14		1121 Holloway wins in round 1		<input id="editx" name="M1_37" size="4"> +325
11:59PM		1122 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_37" size="4"> -475
Sat 2/14		1123 Holloway wins in round 2		<input id="editx" name="M1_38" size="4"> +550
11:59PM		1124 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_38" size="4"> -1050
Sat 2/14		1125 Holloway wins in round 3		<input id="editx" name="M1_39" size="4"> +950
11:59PM		1126 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_39" size="4"> -1950
Sat 2/14		1127 Miller wins by submission		<input id="editx" name="M1_40" size="4"> +1050
11:59PM		1128 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_40" size="4"> -2150
Sat 2/14		1129 Miller wins by TKO/KO		<input id="editx" name="M1_41" size="4"> +1125
11:59PM		1130 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_41" size="4"> -2375
Sat 2/14		1131 Holloway wins by submission		<input id="editx" name="M1_42" size="4"> +725
11:59PM		1132 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_42" size="4"> -1545
Sat 2/14		1133 Holloway wins by TKO/KO		<input id="editx" name="M1_43" size="4"> +200
11:59PM		1134 Any other result		<input id="editx" name="M2_43" size="4"> -280
Sat 2/14		1135 Miller / Holloway starts round 3		<input id="editx" name="M1_44" size="4"> -163
11:59PM		1136 Fight won't start round 3		<input id="editx" name="M2_44" size="4"> +133
Sat 2/14		1137 Miller / Holloway starts round 2		<input id="editx" name="M1_45" size="4"> -332
11:59PM		1138 Fight won't start round 2		<input id="editx" name="M2_45" size="4"> +254

Holloway wins by KO +200 has my attention... Anybody else have some ideas on how this could play out?

If the crafty vet Miller can pull off this win it might be by sub on the flip side, odds are nuts at +1050 for that anyways..

[marzwoody]

Mr. Jibbs

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Few other props I like the value on: .10u on Thatch wins in round 1 +500; .20u on Kelly by submission at +520; and .10u on Miller by submission at +1050.

Sharp play. If I could get better odds by predicting the specific type of sub I would. I feel very confident that Kelly is going to win via guillotine. Walsh is going to get caught shooting in for a sloppy takedown. He always leaves his neck exposed. Once he gets hurt or tired his form will revert back to sloppiness & he will get caught. Still on the fence about Thatch rd 1. But Thatch via TKO +170 had my eyes bugging.

[JIBBBY]

^^ Jimmy and Ronny are on it.. Ahead of me with the props... GET AFTER IT BOYS!!!!

[Unwritten Law]

Will be interesting to see how Bendo fares at WW. It's probably a more natural weight class for him to compete but Thatch may be way too big for him come fight night. I see a back and forth slug fest, not sure how it plays out but like some, I will wait for the weigh-ins to decide.

[marzwoody]

All in James Moontasri.

[CaptChaos145]

OK guys it's been a while since I've posted but I will give you guys a pick that may make your night... Levan Makishvilli is fighting Nik Lentz. I know Levan well. I've called his last 4 fights in CFFC. You wanna talk about upset. He is a STEAL at +350ish. His last 3 fights were set to be 5 rounds. As long as he doesn't have an adrenaline dump he should be able to go 3 no prob. His standup will be much better than Lentz and he will be able to stuff the TD. IF you were going to avoid this fight because you don't know anything about Makishvilli well... go small on the dog here and thank me later. His style is similar to Jose Aldo (of course he is not Jose Aldo.) Levan will be the 1st Georgian fighter in the UFC. I'm telling you this kid is a killer.<object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

[JIBBBY]

^ That's a bold prediction Cap.. Nick Lents is a serious UFC veteran with 30 + fights under his belt.. Durable fighter is Lents that has fought well in the UFC..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Nik-Lentz-15058

This kid Levan is coming in with just a 6-1 record and has not yet fought in the UFC at the top level... Tough to say he's gonna get through Lents with his first UFC showing.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Levan-Makashvili-126881

I think it's a long shot just looking on paper and reading a few articles on both fighters.. I haven't seen any film on Makashvili yet.. Try to get to that later today and get back to this thread...

[JIBBBY]

Article reads coming in... CP breakdown -

http://combatpress.com/2015/02/toe-to-toe-ufc-fight-night-60-preview-and-predictions/

BR - Decent short read on key points with a few fights and probably worth a look in..

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2359139-ufc-fight-night-60-whos-on-the-hot-seat-in-broomfield-this-saturday

[CaptChaos145]

I would go small on Levan. He's def worth it at +350ish... He fought Popo Bezerra twice - lost a close decision and then dominated in the rematch. Also Levan is 9-1 but they don't list his 3 fights he had in Georgia (the country.)<object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

[CaptChaos145]

Combat Press obviously knows nothing about Makishvilli. They didn't even comment on his style. You'll never see Levan at a line like this again so take advantage of it. LOl<object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

[CaptChaos145]

Here's a much more detailed article along with his last fight where he won his CFFC Featherweight title back from Popo Bazerra.

Welcome to the UFC, Levan Makashvili - Bloody Elbow<object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

[JIBBBY]

Ok maybe Levan has a little something going on then.. Capt. you were on it!!! Hope your boy wins.. Watched some footage on Levan and he is skilled..

Still Nik Lents ain't no joke and a very very hard out.. This fight now peeks my interest!!

[Thor4140]

OK guys it's been a while since I've posted but I will give you guys a pick that may make your night... Levan Makishvilli is fighting Nik Lentz. I know Levan well. I've called his last 4 fights in CFFC. You wanna talk about upset. He is a STEAL at +350ish. His last 3 fights were set to be 5 rounds. As long as he doesn't have an adrenaline dump he should be able to go 3 no prob. His standup will be much better than Lentz and he will be able to stuff the TD. IF you were going to avoid this fight because you don't know anything about Makishvilli well... go small on the dog here and thank me later. His style is similar to Jose Aldo (of course he is not Jose Aldo.) Levan will be the 1st Georgian fighter in the UFC. I'm telling you this kid is a killer.<object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

Already played it. Lentz tries to trade with this kid he will get knocked out. I was really impressed the first time i saw this kid fight. Only problem i have here is if Lentz grinds out a three round decision with a takedown or two but i love the kids takedown defence but Lentz is a big 145lber. If he beats Lentz this kid is gonna rise as fast as Felder. I love the way this kid fights. I haven't looked at the schedule but i hope he is on Fox prelims.

[CaptChaos145]

So I assume you saw Levan fight Scott Heckman? Did you see his 2 fights against Popo? I mention Heckman cause that was the card Pat made his pro debut.

Levan's base is wrestling but he's been using his striking more than anything. Heckman could not get him down and didn't really come close. No one thus far has been able to take him down.

It appears Levan is headlining the Prelim card on Fox Sports 1

Lentz looks bigger now as a FW than he did as a LW. LOL Lentz has good wrestling but he also gets taken down quite a bit. Waylon Lowe took his down easy, of course Mendes, and Bocek won the wrestling battles. Lentz has good wrestling but he's not great.

They're going to be fighting in high altitude and this is Levan's debut so those 2 things are working against him. The kid is pretty fearless though.

I see Levan piecing him up on the feet and stuffing TD's. Upset!!! <object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

[CaptChaos145]

Thor shoot me an email next time you're going to a CFFC event. We gotta meet.

mikeadams145@comcast.net

Oh and not to get off topic but how cool was watching Paul Felder do his thing? My heart was pounding before that fight. He could not have done any better... 1 way traffic the entire fight. I think sometimes I underestimate our guys at CFFC. So far all of our champs are doing well and I think Levan is going to be the best of the bunch. George Sullivan and Paul Felder are both fighting on the NJ card in April. Popo is another guy that is UFC caliber all day. That guy has paid his dues. It's a crime he's not in the UFC.

<object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

[Thor4140]

So I assume you saw Levan fight Scott Heckman? Did you see his 2 fights against Popo? I mention Heckman cause that was the card Pat made his pro debut.

Levan's base is wrestling but he's been using his striking more than anything. Heckman could not get him down and didn't really come close. No one thus far has been able to take him down.

It appears Levan is headlining the Prelim card on Fox Sports 1

Lentz looks bigger now as a FW than he did as a LW. LOL Lentz has good wrestling but he also gets taken down quite a bit. Waylon Lowe took his down easy, of course Mendes, and Bocek won the wrestling battles. Lentz has good wrestling but he's not great.

They're going to be fighting in high altitude and this is Levan's debut so those 2 things are working against him. The kid is pretty fearless though.

I see Levan piecing him up on the feet and stuffing TD's. Upset!!! <object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

i didn't see his fights with Popo. I remember Pats dad telling me he lost his last fight after Heckman and i was stunned but never checked into it. Then i looked today and saw Levan beat the same fighter in a rematch. Popo looks to have a nice resume.

[Thor4140]

Thor shoot me an email next time you're going to a CFFC event. We gotta meet.

mikeadams145@comcast.net

Oh and not to get off topic but how cool was watching Paul Felder do his thing? My heart was pounding before that fight. He could not have done any better... 1 way traffic the entire fight. I think sometimes I underestimate our guys at CFFC. So far all of our champs are doing well and I think Levan is going to be the best of the bunch. George Sullivan and Paul Felder are both fighting on the NJ card in April. Popo is another guy that is UFC caliber all day. That guy has paid his dues. It's a crime he's not in the UFC.

<object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

I will. I prolly could have found ya last card but i had the brown bottle flu and decided staying in my seat. I did move ringside after Pats fight. Did u happen to see that big fight in the crowd? That is exactly where i was sitting lol. I would have taken a chair to the skull if i was still sitting there.

[CaptChaos145]

I will. I prolly could have found ya last card but i had the brown bottle flu and decided staying in my seat. I did move ringside after Pats fight. Did u happen to see that big fight in the crowd? That is exactly where i was sitting lol. I would have taken a chair to the skull if i was still sitting there.

No I didn't know there was a fight in the crowd. No one even mentioned it after the fights were over.

<object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

[CaptChaos145]

i didn't see his fights with Popo. I remember Pats dad telling me he lost his last fight after Heckman and i was stunned but never checked into it. Then i looked today and saw Levan beat the same fighter in a rematch. Popo looks to have a nice resume.

Popo had a great game plan in their 1st fight. He used a lot of kicks to the lead leg of Levan. It was a good solid fight. Levan was ready for those kicks when they rematched and Levan won decisively. Yeah Popo was like 17-3 before he ever fought Levan and 2 of his losses were split Decisions. His other loss was a sub over 5 years ago to Charles Oliveira who is ranked #9 in the UFC now.

<object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

[Ron_Paul_2012]

OK guys it's been a while since I've posted but I will give you guys a pick that may make your night... Levan Makishvilli is fighting Nik Lentz. I know Levan well. I've called his last 4 fights in CFFC. You wanna talk about upset. He is a STEAL at +350ish. His last 3 fights were set to be 5 rounds. As long as he doesn't have an adrenaline dump he should be able to go 3 no prob. His standup will be much better than Lentz and he will be able to stuff the TD. IF you were going to avoid this fight because you don't know anything about Makishvilli well... go small on the dog here and thank me later. His style is similar to Jose Aldo (of course he is not Jose Aldo.) Levan will be the 1st Georgian fighter in the UFC. I'm telling you this kid is a killer.<object type="cosymantecnisbfw" cotype="cs" id="SILOBFWOBJECTID" style="width: 0px; height: 0px; display: block;"></object>

[JIBBBY]

Trying to sniff out some last prop plays with this Neil Magny fight..

While I like Neil Magny to win by KO I do think this Japanese fighter has an outside chance at a submission win on the flip side.. Dude has a bunch of sub wins on his record and Magny has been caught a few times in years past.. Just saying... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Kiichi-Kunimoto-21039

With that being said these odds are massive and possibly worth playing around with -

Sat 2/14

1227 Kunimoto wins by submission

<input id="radiox" value="M1_58" name="radiox" type="radio">+1300

[UncleChael]

All in Makovsky. -125

[JIBBBY]

Hitting Thatch wins in 1st round prop.. He's had too many first round finishes in his career!!! http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brandon-Thatch-22298

Sat 2/14

1015 Thatch wins in round 1

<input id="radiox" value="M1_54" name="radiox" type="radio">+500

The safer play is the under 2 1/2 rounds bet at -170 and I'm thinking of a parlay play with that as well...

[marzwoody]

All in bendo

[Ron_Paul_2012]

All in bendo

So are all the knuckleheads "over there" on Bendo? Thatch is going to bring the RUCKUS!