UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Thatch (February 14, 2015)

[JIBBBY]

Thatch down to -120? Had to bet that straight up at that price, $240.00 to win $200.00.

Should have waited longer Jimbo.. I'm holding out til weigh ins.. I'm thinking Thatch +120 by game time myself...

Also waiting for the Thatch by KO prop to come out...

[JIBBBY]

[Jim_Gunn]

Should have waited longer Jimbo.. I'm holding out til weigh ins.. I'm thinking Thatch +120 by game time myself...

Also waiting for the Thatch by KO prop to come out...

Time will tell. The line movement has been crazy here. I'd be surprised if Thatch actually became an underdog. One of my betting friends who is backing Bendo is kicking himself that he missed the Henderson peak at +170.

[mirinquads]

Should have waited longer Jimbo.. I'm holding out til weigh ins.. I'm thinking Thatch +120 by game time myself...

Also waiting for the Thatch by KO prop to come out...

Why would the price ever fall after weigh ins?

[JIBBBY]

Why would the price ever fall after weigh ins?

Well I could be wrong Miri but if Bendo looks big sizing up next to Thatch at weigh ins and he throws some attitude at hand shake the general public can then be persuaded to make a last minute decision for Bendo moving the line..

Remember the big name going in is Benson Henderson especially since we all just saw him fight last against another big name in Cowboy.. Thatch is not a big name just saying..

I may be wrong but I only see this line going one way and I personally am going to wait to the last minute to place.....

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2354019-benson-henderson-anyone-anytime-anywhere

[Bava]

lol

[Rubber Guard]

Mark me down as one who really likes Thatch in this spot. He has beeN out a while though.

Perhaps Bendo can make it gritty though. O have no clue what thatch's cardio is like..

[plekz]

Well I could be wrong Miri but if Bendo looks big sizing up next to Thatch at weigh ins and he throws some attitude at hand shake the general public can then be persuaded to make a last minute decision for Bendo moving the line..

Remember the big name going in is Benson Henderson especially since we all just saw him fight last against another big name in Cowboy.. Thatch is not a big name just saying..

I may be wrong but I only see this line going one way and I personally am going to wait to the last minute to place.....

Benson is NEVER going to look big next to Thatch, and he'll be giving up around 20lbs or so come fight night to Thatch. Last time Benson tried fighting at WW was as a amateur, he got TKO'd in the 2nd round and after that he went down to LW permanently (until now)

--

I see alot of people talking about how easily Thiago got Thatch down, he got that TD as Thatch was coming forward and Thatch instantly got back to his feet, in a way that Thiago was desperatly trying to keep him down and Thatch just powered back up.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Benson is NEVER going to look big next to Thatch, and he'll be giving up around 20lbs or so come fight night to Thatch. Last time Benson tried fighting at WW was as a amateur, he got TKO'd in the 2nd round and after that he went down to LW permanently (until now)

--

I see alot of people talking about how easily Thiago got Thatch down, he got that TD as Thatch was coming forward and Thatch instantly got back to his feet, in a way that Thiago was desperatly trying to keep him down and Thatch just powered back up.

You forgot to mention the All American Division 1 Olympic wrestler Mike Rhodes.

[plekz]

Same deal as with Thiago, as he was coming forward and Thatch instantly swept him. He'll likely be alot more careful when going against a wrestler like Benson and not throw with reckless abandon like he did against Rhodes before he choked him out in the first round.

Should be alot more alarming that last time Benson tried competing at this weight class he got TKO'd and left it to not return until now, and that the last time he went against a real striking technician was Pettis who hurt him enough with a few kicks to make Benson not wanting to strike anymore.

Thatch hits like a truck, and he carries power fine into later rounds.

[Beelzebubzy]

Same deal as with Thiago, as he was coming forward and Thatch instantly swept him. He'll likely be alot more careful when going against a wrestler like Benson and not throw with reckless abandon like he did against Rhodes before he choked him out in the first round.

Should be alot more alarming that last time Benson tried competing at this weight class he got TKO'd and left it to not return until now, and that the last time he went against a real striking technician was Pettis who hurt him enough with a few kicks to make Benson not wanting to strike anymore.

Thatch hits like a truck, and he carries power fine into later rounds.

How do you know?

[Vaughany]

Well I could be wrong Miri but if Bendo looks big sizing up next to Thatch at weigh ins and he throws some attitude at hand shake the general public can then be persuaded to make a last minute decision for Bendo moving the line..

Remember the big name going in is Benson Henderson especially since we all just saw him fight last against another big name in Cowboy.. Thatch is not a big name just saying..

I may be wrong but I only see this line going one way and I personally am going to wait to the last minute to place.....

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...ytime-anywhere

Jibbbbbehhhhhhhh!

[fitguy67]

Youre wrong.

lol

How do you know?

Jibbbbbehhhhhhhh!

a marketing "sampler pack" of the sorts of quality posts that deities from the other place favor us wee folk with from time to time...

[Lick496]

Am I the only one that was dumb enough to bet Henderson without realizing that he was moving up a weightclass? Its been so long since Thatch fought i didnt even think about it.

[fitguy67]

^^l...to be stickied to the top of the "Pot Meet Kettle" thread...from the guy who expressed such concern over Jibby's able-ism...and my apparent tolerance of it...

the only thing worse than hypocrisy (which often times is unintentional)...is blatant sophistry (which never is)
_________

thanks to the interweb-gods for saving me from the word blizzard that I was being goaded into...
so much better to let someone's own keystrokes reveal how perfectly insincere his "charges" were

[PunisherIND]

^^l...to be stickied to the top of the "Pot Meet Kettle" thread...from the guy who expressed such concern over Jibby's able-ism...and my apparent tolerance of it...

the only thing worse than hypocrisy (which often times is unintententional)...is blatant sophistry (which never is)
_________

thanks to the interweb-gods for saving me from the word blizzard that I was being goaded into...
so much better to let someone's own keystrokes reveal how perfectly insincere his "charges" were

except i wasn't the one defending jibbby in the interests of "civility". you were.

in fact, i was pointing out the stupidity in such an endeavor (on the interwebz), while at the same time pointing out the hypocrisy in your actions.

you had your chance to rebut with your "word blizzard", which, clearly, you were incapable of doing. instead, you only managed to offer the lame excuse that your hypocrisy was "unintentional".

you should have remained silent. now you look like a fool and a hypocrite.

[fitguy67]

re: bendo's price move from an open at -110...all the way up to +170 and then right back down to near its opening price...

in technical analysis of assets, we have here a classic "inverted V" (for Bendo payouts)...which is, of course a classic "V" pattern for Thatch payouts

barring any new information...we have a "trading range" here gentlemen...with Thatch support/Bendo resistance at Bendo+100-ish levels...and the reverse occurring at Bendo +160-ish levels

so, whatever side you want to "go long" on...expect the prices to ebb and flow for the time being between +100 and +160 (all prices in this post stated in Bendo tems, for simplicity)...and use that as a guide to time your bargain-hunting efforts

i expect--again given no new-info shocks to the market-- that the amplitude of of each cycle's swing will shrink...giving us the classic "converging triangle" pattern right up till fight time...meaning that Bendo-buyers should give up on seeing +170 again and Thatch buyers should give up on seeing Bendo as low as -110 ever again...support and resistance are likely to kick in earlier and earlier with each run up or down the flagpole...(such as -110 to +170 being the first swing's range...something like +100 to +160 range for the swing now underway...+110 to +150 for the next swing...etc...for illustration of what i mean...forming a zig-zag of decreasing amplitude, meaning decreasingly-wonderful entry opportunities are likely to form for either side)

closing Bendo price likely to ultimately settle not far from a "middle of the pattern" +130-ish (meaning buying Thatch now has a fairly decent shot of BTCL)...but expect a few more decreasingly strong runs up and down the flagpole before fight-time...and "time your entry" on the next availble swing accordingly if you haven't yet taken your seat

if you want to "wait and see"=give the market time for some new information to digest=a shock (such as some weigh-in drama) that might lead to a "breakout" of the converging trading range we seem to be in...that's fine...but barring any truly-new developments expect something like Bendo+130/Thatch-150 at fight-time`

[fitguy67]

ignoring all the technical (aka. "timing"-focused) analysis mumbo-jumbo above...from a strictly "fundamental"="value"-focused (ie. based on a comparison between perceived vs. booked probabilities) perspective...i've taken my seat early in two markets:

*u2.5, +135...done yesterday (tailing JG), and
*Thatch -120 earlier today...

but if you're of a Bendo persuasion u may want to let the current pro-Thatch move continue till Bendo support starts to kick in seriously at about the Bendo+150 level (driven by all those kicking themselves for missing yesterday's brush with +170, just happy to get another crack at a number they can brag to their buddies about)

[Thor4140]

Benson is a good fighter who's head swelled when he was winning debatable decision while holding the title. It swelled so large he was talking about a dream fight with GSP. The guy doesn't belong at 170 and prolly fights like hell to make it at 155. Yep Benson we were all salivating for that dream fight with GSP. God bless. Jesus loves ya.

[fitguy67]

^^the height of the head swelling (but always "thru him who gave him strength") excess came when he hauled that cow he was bangin' into the octagon and proposed to it (after his first non-Frankie defense, i recall)

[JIBBBY]

^^Bendo is coming in losing 2 straight fights and on short notice, being the smaller guy just fattening up to make the new weight now and against a stronger and larger opponent in Thatch seems like a perfect recipe for yet another loss to make it 3 straight..

Thatch is also on a 10 fight win streak himself even though he's been out of the cage for a while now.. At 29 years old though Thatch should be ready and in my opinion be able to KO Bendo...

Tough match up for Bendo period...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brandon-Thatch-22298

[fitguy67]

Jibs, apologies for the inappropriate fidel-ist and lipid-ist language in my last post...I was, of course, referring to his resistance-training coach and to her beautiful large eyes

_____________

Now that the "dogs and fire hydrants" have reversed roles around here (vive la revolucion!)...we have a higher standard to uphold...as role models to the next generation of posters coming up...

after all, how can we expect posters to not be arrogant insulting pricks (driven by some fukked-up sense of "rank" to pull on others)...when we ourselves can't guard against terminology that might be construed (now or in the future) as counter to any of the constantly-growing list of Oprah-sponsored "___isms" to which we must keep current and feign appropriate indignance over

__________

this reminds me of my favorite button/bumper-sticker/t-shirt of days gone-by: NUKE GAY WHALES...now must add "female", "disabled", "of color" etc. etc. to the descriptors, pretty well effing up the whole "succinctness" angle the slogan had going for it...and, most importantly, we must PRETEND that we were always "deeply offended" by it...

[Crassus]

^^Bendo is coming in losing 2 straight fights and on short notice, being the smaller guy just fattening up to make the new weight now and against a stronger and larger opponent in Thatch seems like a perfect recipe for yet another loss to make it 3 straight..

Thatch is also on a 10 fight win streak himself even though he's been out of the cage for a while now.. At 29 years old though Thatch should be ready and in my opinion be able to KO Bendo...

Tough match up for Bendo period...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Brandon-Thatch-22298

Benson weighs 170 on fight night easy, there were some reports i remember reading estimating he was 180ish a few days before fight-night. This only adds to his cardio advantage, as well as the 5 rounds.

[Thor4140]

^^the height of the head swelling (but always "thru him who gave him strength") excess came when he hauled that cow he was bangin' into the octagon and proposed to it (after his first non-Frankie defense, i recall)

i would take a five that treats me well rather than a ten who treats me like shit.

[Thor4140]

Benson wrestling is also overrated. He didn't out wrestle Frankie. He didn't out wrestle Melendez and he sure as hell didn't out wrestle Thomson

[JIBBBY]

Benson weighs 170 on fight night easy, there were some reports i remember reading estimating he was 180ish a few days before fight-night. This only adds to his cardio advantage, as well as the 5 rounds.

Common logic suggests -

Bendo's weight cut should be easy this go around if anything else as this won't be his normal cut.. The advantage goes to Thatch because he's cutting to a fight weight that is normal for him.... We'll see if this makes a difference?

I'm wondering if Bendo is just taking this fight for a payday more then anything else?.. Cowboy takes fights on short notice because he stays in shape for his normal fighting weight and is winning.. Bendo is taking this fight on short notice and jumping a weight class and that might just be pushing it considering he's been losing..

I will say this for Bendo - He did show reasonably well against Cowboy but Cowboy doesn't strike with power like Thatch does...

[JIBBBY]

Here you go Thatch/Bendo props.... Hmmmm? Any ideas?

at 2/14		1003 Thatch / Henderson goes 5 round distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_0" type="checkBox">+145
11:59PM		1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_0" type="checkBox">-185
Sat 2/14		1005 Thatch wins inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_1" type="checkBox">+115
11:59PM		1006 Not Thatch inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_1" type="checkBox">-155
Sat 2/14		1007 Thatch wins by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_2" type="checkBox">+450
11:59PM		1008 Not Thatch by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_2" type="checkBox">-750
Sat 2/14		1009 Henderson wins inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_3" type="checkBox">+325
11:59PM		1010 Not Henderson inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_3" type="checkBox">-475
Sat 2/14		1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_4" type="checkBox">+240
11:59PM		1012 Not Henderson by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_4" type="checkBox">-320
Sat 2/14		1013 Thatch / Henderson draw		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_5" type="checkBox">+10000
11:59PM		1014 Fight not a draw		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_5" type="checkBox">-30000

Holloway ( wins inside the distance +151) looks like maybe a go????

<small>Cole Miller vs Max Holloway - Featherweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 60 propositions</small>
Sat 2/14		1103 Miller / Holloway goes 3 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_6" name="radiox" type="radio">-125
11:59PM		1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_6" name="radiox" type="radio">-115
Sat 2/14		1105 Miller wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_7" name="radiox" type="radio">+520
11:59PM		1106 Not Miller inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_7" name="radiox" type="radio">-960
Sat 2/14		1107 Miller wins by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_8" name="radiox" type="radio">+505
11:59PM		1108 Not Miller by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_8" name="radiox" type="radio">-915
Sat 2/14		1109 Holloway wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_9" name="radiox" type="radio">+151
11:59PM		1110 Not Holloway inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_9" name="radiox" type="radio">-191
Sat 2/14		1111 Holloway wins by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_10" name="radiox" type="radio">+131
11:59PM		1112 Not Holloway by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_10" name="radiox" type="radio">-171
Sat 2/14		1113 Miller / Holloway draw		<input id="radiox" value="M1_11" name="radiox" type="radio">+9000
11:59PM		1114 Fight not a draw		<input id="radiox" value="M2_11" name="radiox" type="radio">-25000

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Here you go Thatch/Bendo props.... Hmmmm? Any ideas?

at 2/14		1003 Thatch / Henderson goes 5 round distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_0" type="checkBox">+145
11:59PM		1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_0" type="checkBox">-185
Sat 2/14		1005 Thatch wins inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_1" type="checkBox">+115
11:59PM		1006 Not Thatch inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_1" type="checkBox">-155
Sat 2/14		1007 Thatch wins by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_2" type="checkBox">+450
11:59PM		1008 Not Thatch by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_2" type="checkBox">-750
Sat 2/14		1009 Henderson wins inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_3" type="checkBox">+325
11:59PM		1010 Not Henderson inside distance		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_3" type="checkBox">-475
Sat 2/14		1011 Henderson wins by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_4" type="checkBox">+240
11:59PM		1012 Not Henderson by 5 round decision		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_4" type="checkBox">-320
Sat 2/14		1013 Thatch / Henderson draw		<input id="checkboxx" name="M1_5" type="checkBox">+10000
11:59PM		1014 Fight not a draw		<input id="checkboxx" name="M2_5" type="checkBox">-30000

Holloway ( wins inside the distance +151) looks like maybe a go????

<small>Cole Miller vs Max Holloway - Featherweight 3 rounds - UFC Fight Night 60 propositions</small>
Sat 2/14		1103 Miller / Holloway goes 3 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_6" name="radiox" type="radio">-125
11:59PM		1104 Fight won't go 3 round distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_6" name="radiox" type="radio">-115
Sat 2/14		1105 Miller wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_7" name="radiox" type="radio">+520
11:59PM		1106 Not Miller inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_7" name="radiox" type="radio">-960
Sat 2/14		1107 Miller wins by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_8" name="radiox" type="radio">+505
11:59PM		1108 Not Miller by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_8" name="radiox" type="radio">-915
Sat 2/14		1109 Holloway wins inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M1_9" name="radiox" type="radio">+151
11:59PM		1110 Not Holloway inside distance		<input id="radiox" value="M2_9" name="radiox" type="radio">-191
Sat 2/14		1111 Holloway wins by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M1_10" name="radiox" type="radio">+131
11:59PM		1112 Not Holloway by 3 round decision		<input id="radiox" value="M2_10" name="radiox" type="radio">-171
Sat 2/14		1113 Miller / Holloway draw		<input id="radiox" value="M1_11" name="radiox" type="radio">+9000
11:59PM		1114 Fight not a draw		<input id="radiox" value="M2_11" name="radiox" type="radio">-25000

Why would you think that Holloway has a chance to submit Miller? If you don't then waiting for the TKO prop is something that you should consider. Same goes for Thatch vs Bendo.

[Jim_Gunn]

Besides the main event, I also bet Neil Magny by decision for .4u at +166. Kunimoto is tough and I see Magny most likely getting the judges nod rather than stopping the durable Japanese fighter.

[GoBlue77]

Bendo for me.

I like Thatch but damn some of you seem like Bendo stole your girl lol.

Henderson walks around at 190 I've heard. Dude coming off 2 losses and having fought better guys than Thatch, the value is with him. Thatch hasn't proven he can handle the step up in competition. We'll see...

[Jim_Gunn]

Bendo for me.

I like Thatch but damn some of you seem like Bendo stole your girl lol.

Henderson walks around at 190 I've heard. Dude coming off 2 losses and having fought better guys than Thatch, the value is with him. Thatch hasn't proven he can handle the step up in competition. We'll see...

Henderson is a big lightweight but I doubt he walks around anywhere near that heavy. That's a crazy amount of weight to cut. I'd have to hear an interview or something before I believed that.

[plekz]

Bendo for me.

I like Thatch but damn some of you seem like Bendo stole your girl lol.

Henderson walks around at 190 I've heard. Dude coming off 2 losses and having fought better guys than Thatch, the value is with him. Thatch hasn't proven he can handle the step up in competition. We'll see...

Benson out of camp walks around at the weight he competes in grappling in, which is around 182-185 by end of camp he's usually down to around 173-175 and then he cuts the last down to 155 from there. This is on two weeks notice so at best he'll be 175-180 ish come fight night. Thatch will be closer to 200.

[Beelzebubzy]

How do you know?

This.

[JIBBBY]

Why would you think that Holloway has a chance to submit Miller? If you don't then waiting for the TKO prop is something that you should consider. Same goes for Thatch vs Bendo.

I am waiting for KO props to come out for both fights.. Thatch to KO Bendo and Holloway to KO Miller..

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I am waiting for KO props to come out for both fights.. Thatch to KO Bendo and Holloway to KO Miller..

I'm with ya on Thatch. However, Cole is a wily & tough vet. I suspect that he will be able to go 3 rounds with Holloway.