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There is one hypothetical way that parlays could minimize risk, and that's if the bettor tends to perform either really well or really poorly on a given night. If you lose one leg of a parlay, it makes no difference if you lose all the others. If, on the other hand, you have a really great night and win all your bets, you'd win more by having those bets parlayed. I'd guess that some bettors fit this model somewhat well (for whatever reason) but I don't know what the threshold is for this to be a beneficial strategy.Comment -
Who would this hypothetical person be, though?
Generally a gambler (regardless of his EV) is going to be streaky. To find someone who truly performs in non-random streaks would be extremely strange, and I doubt any profitable gambler would fall under that criteria. The only example I can think of is a strong poker player with poor tilt control, that once he starts losing he is more likely to continue to lose. Perhaps the only similar thing is gamblers who tilt and try to get even with progressively worse bets, but his best strategy would be to not play at all anyway.Comment -
Yeah, it's just an idea.Comment -
Think about this - Let's say you only want to risk $100 playing 3 fights that you know will win 90 percent of the time.. All -275 odds let's say... Same card and fights that are going back to back in the line up... How else do you play that other then a 3 team parlay play to get the largest return on your $100 investment?
It's also an easier and more secure form of gambling rather then trying to play and place fight after fight straight with the initial 100 invested if the fights are even still up on board in real time....Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-02-14, 02:26 PM.Comment -
If you wanted to risk $100 on fights that you know will win 90% of the time at -275 odds then, which of the following statements are true?
A) You wildly overestimate your edge
B) You are ridiculously underbankrolled or risk adverse
C) You're creating a strawman to fit your argument
D) All of the aboveComment -
Here is the proper way to play your scenario.
1) Sell your home and all assets.
2) Borrow as much money as possible.
3) Place large individual wagers on each fight, and then smaller bets round robining all the plays, (AB, AC, BC, ABC)
4) Wonder why it is that 3 fights on the same day had identical odds, and you came up with an identical edge on all of them, causing you to perhaps realize you've made a terrible and likely completely arbitrary judgment.
5) Win your bets, since -275 favorite usually do win.
6) Forget to learn any lessons from your ordeal and pat yourself on the back for picking winnerz.Last edited by NunyaBidness; 10-02-14, 02:33 PM.Comment -
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I do like your teaser logic in NFL football play though Nuns...
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lol. you bet any nfl ths wk jibby? dnt hold out on usComment -
I'm quite guilty of the parlays.
For action junkie's like myself, it's a great way to bet every fight and feel warm and cushy that you should win because you're backing the fighters that *should* win. We all know that means nothing.
Results are either amazing or absolutely brutal. You either end up a zillion units or eating shit.
I know it's not a strategy conducive to long term profitability, but it is fun.
That being said, I am making a concerted effort to curtail my parlays.. Nunya's insight has helped me there.Comment -
Please don't bring my NFL picks into this equation GetLucky.. Not cool... Completely different beast.. This is an MMA forum section last time I checked.. Lol...
I will be playing 3 or 4 dogs on this card straight though..
For the record - I mostly only parlay up when looking at -200 or more favorites. When the odds are close to even or + odds I typically bet those straight most of the time..Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-02-14, 03:04 PM.Comment -
Thanks Nuns, I do read and pay attention to your posts as I do think you are one of the most successful gamblers on this forum.. You are very calculated and that works for ya... Respek...
I'm not parlay happy though - I carefully place every bet not wanting to lose in MMA especially..
For the record again - I hardly ever have used parlays in MLB and I bet that sport every day with multiple plays.. I've done consistently well over the years doing just that also in MLB..
NFL I parlay and lose... I play straight and lose... I teaser play and fail.. Looking to turn the corner soon though in that God aweful sport..Lol....Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-02-14, 03:29 PM.Comment -
I told ya Nunya.... just let him parlay up all the heavily juiced "winnerz"Comment -
Nunya's right. Take it as a cue and spend a couple of hours googling theory on parlays... its all there and doesn't take long. Who'd have thought in the age of the internet huh?Comment -
I was planning on parlay'ing these 2 guys up but the odds got silly almost over night for Rory.. Still a no play on Rory... Looking for props and or over/under round bets instead for this Rory play now.. Still liking Assuncao but waiting for weigh ins though.......Comment -
yeah jib u got penetrated. i got dodgers tom. and gb n a tsrComment -
Betus... Had those odds up this morning and I placed..
I have a higher balance over there then my other 2 accounts... Bovada odds were better, and 5Dimes had the best odds... I placed on Bovada and 5dimes also so it all balanced out... Placing on Betus was a bone head move on my part though for sure..
What ever......Comment -
This is really not a whatever situation.
If you're betting to win, especially in major market sports, but ESPECIALLY in baseball, line shopping is 99% of it. Baseball is a solved game like chess, the market is right close to 100% of the time. Anytime you're not beating the closers, you lost, period.Comment -
You're right Nun..
I usually don't bet like that.. Just was wanting to bet the MLB plays on all accounts and just went with it this time around.. If I could do it all over again I would not have done that this morning.. I didn't check the odds and placed blindly on Betus first like an idiot..Comment -
Another simple card write up... Help to familiarize ya with the fighters... Simple basic reads.. http://whatculture.com/sport/6-main-...saffiedine.php
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Li Jinglaing (9-2) vs Nordine Torleb (9-2)
Trying to figure out if this Chinese dude Li Jingliang is really any good? He did win his UFC debut...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Jingliang-Li-26381
At +336 from what I'm reading the odds should probably be closer to even.. Hmmmm? He'll probably get over powered in this fight from what little footage I've seen on him so far though..
http://mmajunkie.com/2014/05/video-jingliang-li-surprised-he-was-taken-down-by-michaud-at-ufc-173
Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-02-14, 05:47 PM.Comment -
Was looking at that 4 inch height advantage in Anthony Njokuani (16-8) over Daren Cruickshank (15-5) to make a huge difference in this fight but that's just not enough for me to bet on the dude....Njokuani is a stand up fighter first though and could possible out strike or knock out Daren Cruick...
I can't pull that trigger on this fight at just +160 for A.N.. anyways.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Anthony-Njokuani-7540
We did just see Daren get worked over standing for 3 rounds by Masvidal... Respectable loss though... Cruickshank has that funky Karate style, showed he can take a good punch in the past, the better ground game and wrestling going into this one, but most importantly Daren has those crazy spinning kicks that will probably land at some point on the chin of A.N....http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Daron-Cruickshank-53717
Odds are probably spot on and this might be a no play for me.. If I had to pick I would go with Daren Cruichshank by KO though...
Just typing as I think and continue cap out these last few fights and share..Last edited by JIBBBY; 10-02-14, 07:51 PM.Comment
