UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs. Saffiedine (October 04, 2014)

[rocky16]

You feeling ok Rock? This might be the most detailed post with the fewest amount of expletives or slurs I have seen you post in the short amount of time I've been on here. I agree with the breakdown though - can't lay -500 on Rory here. Will see what the props look like when they open up.

I've done a lot of cocaine today I don't know if I'm focking coming or going pal.

[rocky16]

How do you see Rory winning though? Will he keep it on the feet and out strike Saff or will he look to take Saff down?

Agree 100% that Rory should not be -500. Normally when I see a -500 I can tell straight away why they are this price but I am struggling here.

I'm not convinced that Rory would have the cardio to implement a wrestling heavy game plan against Saff for his first 5 rounder. So if this fight does stay standing can Rory out strike Saff for 5 rounds?


Lots of question marks for this fight

I see Rory utilizing his reach advantage here. He's very good at measuring distance. He will mix in some takedowns after tarec slows a bit in the later rounds. I think tarec does have nice takedown defense. He has a strong base and good hips but he won't stuff every takedown. He won't sub Rory off his back and he won't take Rory down. Rory won't have to worry about tarec rocking him on the feet so I think Rory will pretty much dictate how this fight goes. Like I said tarec is very tough and he's very solid but he's never going to be top 5 due to his limitations ie power in his hand and lack of explosive wrestling.

[Napes21]

How do you see Rory winning though? Will he keep it on the feet and out strike Saff or will he look to take Saff down?

Agree 100% that Rory should not be -500. Normally when I see a -500 I can tell straight away why they are this price but I am struggling here.

I'm not convinced that Rory would have the cardio to implement a wrestling heavy game plan against Saff for his first 5 rounder. So if this fight does stay standing can Rory out strike Saff for 5 rounds?


Lots of question marks for this fight

Rory got a big reach advantage here (like 6" I think) and is perfectly content to just jab away - Saff has overcome reach disadvantage in the past but hasn't faced someone that is content just sitting on outside and popping him in the face. I've been burned by Saff in the past so can't see myself laying the 500.

[JIBBBY]

Love the dialog - I do think most of you guys are thinking about this fight in the wrong light though with all due respect.. It's not gonna be a boxing match for 5 rounds fellas..

Rory is a GSP clone, he's going to take down Saff at some point in this 5 rounder and or just grind on the guy in the clinch.. Keep it simple fellas and don't over think it.. Striking sure Rory will hold his own with his reach advantage, ground and grind is gonna be all Rory period.

[Napes21]

Can someone explain to me why these dudes at MMAOB are on Chavez? I am still wondering what he is even doing in the UFC and thought Zumba Tuguhoff showed some decent talent in his first outing. Am I missing something here?

[marzwoody]

Saff is very technical on the feet. Makes few mistakes. He doesn't have enough power to put anyone on their ass nevermind put them out with one shot. His takedown defense is very solid. Its improved greatly since his fight with woodley. He's got very good cardio and he's a tough focking kid. But Rory is on another level. The odds are off IMO. I cap Rory at -300. I don't believe saff will beat any of the top 5 guys at 170 and I do think Rory is a top 5 guy and the guy who will eventually hold the title. This will be a very good fight. Much closer than the line indicates but ultimately MacDonald should take a UD.

I worried about the leg kicks being a factor, then i watched tape and realized he doesen't throw as many as i thought he did.

I pretty much already broke this fight down in a PM convo with bj so cant be bothered to repeat. your analysis of the fight is spot on.

Rory has reach advantage is taller, faster, has more power and is more creative with his striking. he can mix in takedowns aswell.

Rory should win and look good doing it. hes coming for that strap.

[Napes21]

Also, anyone seen anything on Jan? I didn't spend a lot of time looking but all I could find was highlight reels in Polish which don't give me shit. Kinda like Latifi but don't like betting against dudes I never seen before. Does he actually have any talent or is Latifi gonna bulldoze him? I know Remy Sokoudjou put him on the stretcher with leg kicks and Latifi was throwing some nasty leg kicks in his last fight. If anyone got clips or links to Jans fights would be much appreciated.

[marzwoody]

More interesting match ups to me are Assuncao vs Caraway and Gunner vs Story (not same card but fock it)

More confident in Assuncao. should outclass that phag caraway.

Gunni worries me he needs to be more aggressive and stop relying solely on submissions.

If he fights at the same pace as he did with Cummins and cant get the sub he will lose via points.

What do you guyz think about the Assuncao / Caraway fight? interested to know.

[Napes21]

More interesting match ups to me are Assuncao vs Caraway and Gunner vs Story (not same card but fock it)

More confident in Assuncao. should outclass that phag caraway.

Gunni worries me he needs to be more aggressive and stop relying solely on submissions.

If he fights at the same pace as he did with Cummins and cant get the sub he will lose via points.

What do you guyz think about the Assuncao / Caraway fight? interested to know.

Looking forward to seeing Assuncao school him everywhere

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Can someone explain to me why these dudes at MMAOB are on Chavez? I am still wondering what he is even doing in the UFC and thought Zumba Tuguhoff showed some decent talent in his first outing. Am I missing something here?

Chavez is going to use takedowns to grind out a hard fought decision win.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

More interesting match ups to me are Assuncao vs Caraway and Gunner vs Story (not same card but fock it)

More confident in Assuncao. should outclass that phag caraway.

Gunni worries me he needs to be more aggressive and stop relying solely on submissions.

If he fights at the same pace as he did with Cummins and cant get the sub he will lose via points.

What do you guyz think about the Assuncao / Caraway fight? interested to know.

Did you see the Story vs Maia fight? Gunni has 5 rds. to get a submission. He is going to win via choke. Take it to the bank.

[Skel]

Did you see the Story vs Maia fight? Gunni has 5 rds. to get a submission. He is going to win via choke. Take it to the bank.

Kavanagh is predicting a first round TKO for some reason but yes, I have money on Nelson by sub +190. Story is a tough test but the fight being 5 rounds means Nelson has a long time to find a choke. He probably only needs one grappling exchange to finish this.

[JIBBBY]

Couple of decent reads to get the ball rolling with this card... Liking what I'm reading from these bone heads at Combatpress lately...

http://combatpress.com/2014/09/toe-to-toe-ufc-fight-night-54-preview-and-predictions/

This article and slide show covers both events... Short reads as always from bleacher report.. Probably worth a look in.. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...ghts-53-and-54

[marzwoody]

Couple of decent reads to get the ball rolling with this card... Liking what I'm reading from these bone heads at Combatpress lately...

http://combatpress.com/2014/09/toe-to-toe-ufc-fight-night-54-preview-and-predictions/

This article and slide show covers both events... Short reads as always from bleacher report.. Probably worth a look in.. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...ghts-53-and-54

Carey: "Caraway looked impressive against an aggressive and crafty Erik Perez earlier this year,"

Erm no he diden't. Perez who has terrible wrestling and ground game decided for some reason to try and take Caraway down, ended up getting subbed. is that impressive?

This is why i don't read these kind of predictions.

[NunyaBidness]

Also, anyone seen anything on Jan? I didn't spend a lot of time looking but all I could find was highlight reels in Polish which don't give me shit. Kinda like Latifi but don't like betting against dudes I never seen before. Does he actually have any talent or is Latifi gonna bulldoze him? I know Remy Sokoudjou put him on the stretcher with leg kicks and Latifi was throwing some nasty leg kicks in his last fight. If anyone got clips or links to Jans fights would be much appreciated.

Wrong card, dumbdumb.

[Napes21]

Wrong card, dumbdumb.

Was waiting for that comment when I didn't see my posts in the other thread - apologies

[JIBBBY]

Carey: "Caraway looked impressive against an aggressive and crafty Erik Perez earlier this year,"

Erm no he diden't. Perez who has terrible wrestling and ground game decided for some reason to try and take Caraway down, ended up getting subbed. is that impressive?

This is why i don't read these kind of predictions.

Oh, I hear ya Marz... I surely don't agree with what most MMA writers say word for word in many of the article reads, but I am able to grab some key facts, current tips on the fighters, their current training camp info, etc.. All helps.. I read many articles and post up the ones that I think are worthy..

If you notice my fight predictions often differ from the links that I post up.. Take what you need from each read is my thinking.. Or just don't read them if you are confident and informed already on the match ups..

[marzwoody]

Oh, I hear ya Marz... I surely don't agree with what most MMA writers say word for word in many of the article reads, but I am able to grab some key facts, current tips on the fighters, their current training camp info, etc.. All helps.. I read many articles and post up the ones that I think are worthy..

If you notice my fight predictions often differ from the links that I post up.. Take what you need from each read is my thinking.. Or just don't read them if you are confident and informed already on the match ups..

All good. that other guys opinion was fine, i just couden't take Carey's seriously after that comment. keep posting Jibby.

[JIBBBY]

Still waiting for the betting odds to come out on all the other fights!!! Only the Main Event is up on the board now with 4 days left til fight time... ...

[JIBBBY]

Odds are out and up on the board now!!!

[yisman]

Font is out of his fight with Mitch Gagnon. He will be replaced by Roman Salazar.

[JIBBBY]

^^^Yis you seem like a big dog on this forum???.. Crazy bet points contest winner in 2014!!! Impressive!!. Never seen your posts before...

Back to Topic -

I see dead people and dog plays now that the odds are up. This event has promise!!!... Oh Snapidy Snap!! Let's get this fellas...



Watching this Giants MLB game now... Boring as helll but got action.. What can you do???? Get back to this thread in a few...

[Educ8d Degener8]

...
Rory is a GSP clone, he's going to take down Saff at some point in this 5 rounder and or just grind on the guy in the clinch.. Keep it simple fellas and don't over think it.. Striking sure Rory will hold his own with his reach advantage, ground and grind is gonna be all Rory period.

Respectfully disagree with the bolded. GSP's takedowns are/were the best in mma. Prime/healthy GSP outwrestled "elite wrestlers". Saff is a tough crafty mf'r. Judges are idiots. Saff by dec +975 has my eye.

[marzwoody]

Rory wont be denied his title shot.

Your right about GSP. he was the master at mixing things up.

[rocky16]

Rory by decision -139. Focking cash money and hoers playas.

[Sacrelicious]

Rory by decision -139. Focking cash money and hoers playas.

5 rounds?? Better price on him finishing.

[MD]

5 rounds?? Better price on him finishing.

Rory couldn't finish a Cosmopolitan.

Normally gets about halfway through the glass.

[getlucky2win]

Double post

[getlucky2win]

Rory dec -110 on 5d. But I'm bettin tarec. Line is wAy offf imo. so i think the ovr would be better bet than rory dec

[JIBBBY]

Rory by decision -139. Focking cash money and hoers playas.

Agreed Rockster!!! Likely to unfold like this... Rory is not going to be out worked in this one especially once he takes this fight to the ground.... Rory has more ways to win this fight..

Educ8d is the man on this forum in the last month.. Perhaps he proves us both wrong though..

Odds are too crazy high to play this fight straight.. Maybe even to high to play straight in a parlay at this point also.. Just not worth it..

[Vaughany]

[JIBBBY]

Couple of dog plays I'm considering.. Thoughts peps???

(14-1) Bruno Santos +310
(13-3) Yosdenis Cedeno +225

Still working on this card today but these 2 fights caught my eye for possible upsets...

[NunyaBidness]

Odds are too crazy high to play this fight straight.. Maybe even to high to play straight in a parlay at this point also.. Just not worth it..

This literally NEVER makes a difference.

NEVER

In no case.

Parlays aren't magic.

[JIBBBY]

This literally NEVER makes a difference.

NEVER

In no case.

Parlays aren't magic.

They are magical in minimizing risk especially in MMA... Has worked well for me over the years.. 2 and 3 teamers especially.. Nailed 4 and 5 teamers as well in the past for big bucks risking relatively not much...

Bottom line is that you do need to be able to consistently pick em though....

[NunyaBidness]

They are magical in minimizing risk especially in MMA..

No.