Woodstick Value Plays

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  • Wanna Bet On It?
    SBR MVP
    • 11-17-11
    • 1032

    #36
    Woodstick's butthole is getting stretched like a vintage film featuring Tito's ex

    Comment
    • bjpenn85
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-17-11
      • 5059

      #37
      Told you.
      Comment
      • bjpenn85
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-17-11
        • 5059

        #38
        All the bets break my formula which is think is pretty basic rules of ufc betting: 1. Never bet a lot on fighters making their debut/ having very few figthts in the ufc. Like Sanders, like alex white. As i stated fighters you bet on as a rule of thumb and specially if their debuting fighters, they should be vastly better than their opponent, and not only slightly. Slightly better means you only have a smaller edge, and long term, youre ******, believe me. unless you get for instance +150 or higher and you believe the odds should be evens.
        2. Never risk a whole lot on fighters at even odds, because a lot of times its actually 50/50. Not always but very often. Kalikas has def developed as a capper last couple of years. I remember dhong hyung kim came in +180 underdog against amir sadollah, and ended up at evens, how often does that shit happens now?
        Comment
        • NunyaBidness
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 07-26-09
          • 9345

          #39
          Originally posted by bjpenn85
          Kalikas has def developed as a capper last couple of years. I remember dhong hyung kim came in +180 underdog against amir sadollah, and ended up at evens, how often does that shit happens now?
          I agree somewhat. I would say, Kalikas has become very good at determining the market close. The difference between his opening and closing lines have gotten much shorter. I don't know if his personal capping is any good, or can be determined from that.
          Comment
          • bjpenn85
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 02-17-11
            • 5059

            #40
            i think he has progressed as a capper and not developed as a better, a bit contradictive development, but i believe its true.
            He usually like to give away -400 where he before set a line at -300. Its still value often times at -400, but you will earn less. Its ok to bet on -400 favourites now and then if a fighter has value, a concept even Nik Kalikas struggles to understand.
            Comment
            • MarkWoodstick
              SBR High Roller
              • 06-18-14
              • 221

              #41
              Originally posted by bjpenn85
              All the bets break my formula which is think is pretty basic rules of ufc betting: 1. Never bet a lot on fighters making their debut/ having very few figthts in the ufc. Like Sanders, like alex white. As i stated fighters you bet on as a rule of thumb and specially if their debuting fighters, they should be vastly better than their opponent, and not only slightly. Slightly better means you only have a smaller edge, and long term, youre ******, believe me. unless you get for instance +150 or higher and you believe the odds should be evens.
              2. Never risk a whole lot on fighters at even odds, because a lot of times its actually 50/50. Not always but very often. Kalikas has def developed as a capper last couple of years. I remember dhong hyung kim came in +180 underdog against amir sadollah, and ended up at evens, how often does that shit happens now?
              You were absolutely right. I failed to follow my own advice and remain disciplined. The Sanders in particular was just plain bad, and I should have known better.
              Comment
              • Vaughany
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 03-07-10
                • 45563

                #42
                Originally posted by Wanna Bet On It?
                Woodstick's butthole is getting stretched like a vintage film featuring Tito's ex

                lol
                Comment
                • PaperTrail07
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 08-29-08
                  • 20423

                  #43
                  Play cost me big that ************
                  Comment
                  • PaperTrail07
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 08-29-08
                    • 20423

                    #44
                    Sanders was a horrible bet by all worst in a long long time
                    Originally posted by MarkWoodstick
                    You were absolutely right. I failed to follow my own advice and remain disciplined. The Sanders in particular was just plain bad, and I should have known better.
                    Comment
                    • bjpenn85
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 02-17-11
                      • 5059

                      #45
                      Most upset happens in the first fight of the night. You can almost blindly toss in money on the underdog every event and make a profit.
                      Comment
                      • bjpenn85
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-17-11
                        • 5059

                        #46
                        after seeing how many times white was tagged against lucas, you must admit, youre a pretty blind mf? or what? I mean, i gave you links and everything and you just scratched your head like a dumb fat white texas ranger. Go home marzwoody, youre not on my level.
                        Comment
                        • MarkWoodstick
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 06-18-14
                          • 221

                          #47
                          Originally posted by bjpenn85
                          after seeing how many times white was tagged against lucas, you must admit, youre a pretty blind mf? or what? I mean, i gave you links and everything and you just scratched your head like a dumb fat white texas ranger. Go home marzwoody, youre not on my level.
                          Despite what happened last night in that White/Martins fight, I stand by my belief that Martins striking defense looked absolutely horrible in his previous fights. The fact that Martins was knocked down by Jeremy Larsen a couple times in undeniable. Good on Martins to make adjustments and bad on me for buying into White's hype and not listening to your warnings.
                          Comment
                          • PaperTrail07
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 08-29-08
                            • 20423

                            #48
                            White was not THAT far off winning the fight....granted he may have just woke up
                            Comment
                            • Keyboard Warrior
                              SBR MVP
                              • 06-07-14
                              • 1290

                              #49
                              have you ever sucked a dick for money?
                              Comment
                              • bjpenn85
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 02-17-11
                                • 5059

                                #50
                                You were absolutely right about martins horrible defence, but you were as wrong thinking white had any better.

                                Anyway, long term this is not the way to go. A guy has to be crazy good, and then matched up against a can to make the debuting fighter look good, a so called gimme fight. This wasnt a gimme fight at all, this was more like come on people lets make a party up in here ala DMX. This was two evenly matched fighters with 0 fight iq swinging like a pair of titties looking for some applauding dicks. I bet cerrone and rick story because i knew every f hair on their midget faces, that earns you money son, that earns you pesooos
                                Comment
                                • Keyboard Warrior
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 06-07-14
                                  • 1290

                                  #51
                                  Well said BJ, Op got raped in this thread but will come back stronger

                                  Comment
                                  • MarkWoodstick
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 06-18-14
                                    • 221

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by Keyboard Warrior
                                    have you ever sucked a dick for money?
                                    I hope I'm not speaking out of school when I say that I've had my fair share
                                    Comment
                                    • Vaughany
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 03-07-10
                                      • 45563

                                      #53
                                      lol
                                      Comment
                                      • MarkWoodstick
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 06-18-14
                                        • 221

                                        #54
                                        Brandao line is getting out of hand so im taking the value...

                                        Diego Brandao +400 - Risk 5 to win 20
                                        Comment
                                        • MarkWoodstick
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 06-18-14
                                          • 221

                                          #55
                                          Ian McCall -165 - Risk 33 to win 20

                                          I like McCall's cardio and wrestling advantage in this one.
                                          Comment
                                          • bjpenn85
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 02-17-11
                                            • 5059

                                            #56
                                            most even fight on the card, and youre at it again, youre the new jesus christ.
                                            Comment
                                            • Vaughany
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 03-07-10
                                              • 45563

                                              #57
                                              Haha
                                              i dont know how anybody can take mccall at these odds. Fair play if he goes and starches pickett but id be very surprised, like bj says it seems as close to a 50/50 as u can get. And Why do people think mccall has wrestling advantage as well?! I mean of course he might have, its not a ludicrous suggestion like saying nick newell has advantage because he has a stub for an arm!! but what footage is there tht demonstrates tht uncle creepy is the better wrestler?

                                              Pickett also made a good point about the fact tht most 125ers will have to get in to his range now in order to connect unlike when he was at 135 and facing guys like wineland, barao and mayday and he was the one chasing them down and over committing in order to try and get in to range
                                              Comment
                                              • bjpenn85
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-17-11
                                                • 5059

                                                #58
                                                Judging by all the idiots on this forum, i should consider start an own betting site. Down V?
                                                Comment
                                                • MD
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 01-31-12
                                                  • 9728

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                  most even fight on the card, and youre at it again, youre the new jesus christ.
                                                  I'll probably be on McCall.

                                                  Maybe I'm the new Jesus Christ.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Ron_Paul_2012
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-31-13
                                                    • 3953

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by MD
                                                    I'll probably be on McCall.

                                                    Maybe I'm the new Jesus Christ.
                                                    So are you going to the fight?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • marzwoody
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-03-14
                                                      • 3902

                                                      #61
                                                      Yep im on McCall aswell. im the new jesus? sweet.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • MD
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 01-31-12
                                                        • 9728

                                                        #62
                                                        Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012
                                                        So are you going to the fight?
                                                        No. Tickets sold out in minutes, and a friend of mine (who's been sort of down recently) wanted me to watch the fights with her anyway, so I plan on doing that. Hope me spending every second of non-fight time on Twitter and SBR cheers her up.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bjpenn85
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 02-17-11
                                                          • 5059

                                                          #63
                                                          I dont see value @ 1.60. maybe at +140..
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Vaughany
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 03-07-10
                                                            • 45563

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by MD
                                                            No. Tickets sold out in minutes, and a friend of mine (who's been sort of down recently) wanted me to watch the fights with her anyway, so I plan on doing that. Hope me spending every second of non-fight time on Twitter and SBR cheers her up.
                                                            Ha jus get her on SBR, this forum is bound to cheer her up
                                                            Comment
                                                            • MD
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 01-31-12
                                                              • 9728

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                              Ha jus get her on SBR, this forum is bound to cheer her up
                                                              My last ex read SBR while we were together. Laughed at Gabe jokes every time.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Vaughany
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 03-07-10
                                                                • 45563

                                                                #66
                                                                Haha
                                                                Comment
                                                                • MarkWoodstick
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 06-18-14
                                                                  • 221

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                  Judging by all the idiots on this forum, i should consider start an own betting site. Down V?
                                                                  Come on Bj, don't turn on me just yet.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • MD
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 01-31-12
                                                                    • 9728

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Originally posted by MarkWoodstick
                                                                    Come on Bj, don't turn on me just yet.
                                                                    You'll never beat the Irish.

                                                                    And that goes for the rest of you focks too.

                                                                    Originally posted by MD
                                                                    I'll probably be on McCall.

                                                                    Maybe I'm the new Jesus Christ.
                                                                    Give me a couple of more cards, I'm still not convinced my downswing won't go Jesus-tier eventually.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • rocky16
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 07-22-12
                                                                      • 1905

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                      I dont see value @ 1.60. maybe at +140..
                                                                      You done gloating bruh? McCall was easiest bet in a while. Don't know how anyone could be on Pickett. Dude is on decline and McCall is one of the best manlet fighters at straw weight. Only a fool didn't see that coming. I don't hear u and your suck hole now. Maybe too busy giving bj huh bj?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • rocky16
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 07-22-12
                                                                        • 1905

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Nice pick marksmalldick.
                                                                        Comment
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