Woodstick Value Plays

**MarkWoodstick** · 07-25-14, 01:51 AM

Too many whiskey shots. penetrate you phagets, especially Jibby.

**MarkWoodstick** · 07-25-14, 05:43 PM

Karo wins by decision +440

Risk 5 to win 22

I refuse to watch this shit show. Karo will most likely win after Phil gasses, and I'm hoping he grinds out an ugly decision win in what will most likely be an ugly fight. Liked the odds so phuck it.

**MarkWoodstick** · 07-26-14, 06:37 PM

At least I got Kingsbury at a good price. Fock me.

Masvida/Lawler parlay - Risk 13.01 to win 10

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-09-14, 09:06 AM

I've really been looking like a beta pussy in front of my gambling peers. The Sanders and Kingsbury bets were pathetic failures.

Ross Pearson -120 - Risk 24 to win 20

I dont this is a particularly great matchup for Maynard. Maynard is most successful when he uses his wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place. Pearson's wrestling has improved since TUF and I don't imagine Maynard's wrestling and top control will be enough to cruise to a decision here. Maynard will struggle to consistently keep Pearson down, and a good chunk of this fight will take place standing. Pearson doesnt possess elite power in his hands, but his boxing is very sharp and I believe he will land enough clean shots to win by TKO or decision. Pearson is just the younger, better mpre well-rounded fighter at this point in their respective careers and in a virtual coin flip I will gladly take the Brit.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-15-14, 11:56 PM

Ok girls, time for the big fawkin' play of the card...

Tom Watson -115 - Risk 40.25 to win 35

I simply believe that Watson is the better fighter, and will put a beating on Alvey. Alvey is clearly very tough and durable, but not as technically sound as many believe. He is a glorified brawler who leaves glaring openings in standup exchanges and rarely uses his wrestling offensively. Sam Alvey has said he wants to make this fight exciting so that fans will want to see him again, implying that he wants to stand and brawl (as he usually does) with Watson.

Do not let Watson's 1-3 record in the UFC fool you. He is a UFC-caliber fighter who is extremely tough to finish and has a high fight IQ. His takedown defense is a glaring weakness against UFC level talent, but he has an underrated ability of getting back up from bottom position fairly quickly. This fight will most likely be mainly a kickboxing brawl, which is Watson's bread and butter. Watson throws excellent leg kicks that land at a high volume. He is also very nasty in the clinch as we saw in his fight with Nedkov.

In conclusion, Watson is a UFC-caliber fighter who was most recently on the bad side of a pretty poor decision (in my opinion), and who has stayed competitive against solid, top 15 level UFC talent. Sam Alvey may not even be UFC caliber. Whenever facing non-regional level fighters, whether it was on TUF or in Bellator, he has faltered. Watson will use his UFC experience, superior kickboxing, and sneaky good defensive grappling to earn a TKO or more likely a decision victory.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-16-14, 12:11 AM

YTD
-$37.94

UFC Fight Night 47 Plays (So Far):

Ross Pearson - Risk 24 to win 20
Tom Watson - Risk 40.25 to win 35

I've been handicapping like a shit stain since I started posting here so I thought I'd leave some cool shit to divert some negative attention away...

**bjpenn85** · 08-16-14, 03:44 AM

Its a reason your -37 Units this year, coincidence?. Buuuuut, i like that you contribute to the forum and posting plays and your thoughts. But your style is way to risky, and you likely is going to continue to get burned, as our man jesus christ. He streaked like continously for 3 monhts than suddenly lost on every posted bet. You have lost 37 units, and i consider you lucky that you havent lost more.

**Wilbo86** · 08-16-14, 04:22 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Its a reason your -37 Units this year, coincidence?. Buuuuut, i like that you contribute to the forum and posting plays and your thoughts. But your style is way to risky, and you likely is going to continue to get burned, as our man jesus christ. He streaked like continously for 3 monhts than suddenly lost on every posted bet. You have lost 37 units, and i consider you lucky that you havent lost more.

Gambling strategy mixed with biblical comparison.... nice.

Terrible gambler but at least he likes good music.

MD · 08-16-14, 06:31 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Its a reason your -37 Units this year, coincidence?. Buuuuut, i like that you contribute to the forum and posting plays and your thoughts. But your style is way to risky, and you likely is going to continue to get burned, as our man jesus christ. He streaked like continously for 3 monhts than suddenly lost on every posted bet. You have lost 37 units, and i consider you lucky that you havent lost more.

Pretty sure he's down $37, not 37u.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-16-14, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Its a reason your -37 Units this year, coincidence?. Buuuuut, i like that you contribute to the forum and posting plays and your thoughts. But your style is way to risky, and you likely is going to continue to get burned, as our man jesus christ. He streaked like continously for 3 monhts than suddenly lost on every posted bet. You have lost 37 units, and i consider you lucky that you havent lost more.

$37, not units. Big difference.

The Alex White/Jerrod Sanders/Kingsbury bets truly buried me, and I don't know what I was thinking when I bet on the last two (I stick by my White bet at least).

With that being said, I don't think either of these bets for tonight's events are risky at all! If anything, laying even money on a regional level journeyman against a talented UFC "veteran" is risky. And to be fair, I got Pearson at a very good price also.

Don't come on my thread and start being a roosterlicker unprovoked, BJ.

**bjpenn85** · 08-16-14, 06:47 PM

This is my world, dont make a thread in my world and expect too not get buried for your mistakes king nothing.

MD · 08-16-14, 07:01 PM

BJ is the Marty to my Rust.

**latarianmilton** · 08-16-14, 07:08 PM

damnit why are you on pearson

**bjpenn85** · 08-16-14, 07:10 PM

-37 dollar -37 units, its both so bad, you shouldnt even try to defend it. Youre happy being a loser. So you finally made it, here you are, stuck on a forum, a forum behind a screen, and still losing, congratulations. The world kneels mr.havent won a single dollar in 2014.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-16-14, 07:14 PM

Originally posted by MD

BJ is the Marty to my Rust.

Is that a sexual innuendo?

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-16-14, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

-37 dollar -37 units, its both so bad, you shouldnt even try to defend it. Youre happy being a loser. So you finally made it, here you are, stuck on a forum, a forum behind a screen, and still losing, congratulations. The world kneels mr.havent won a single dollar in 2014.

Why are you so upset? You sound like a whiny little bitch.

**bjpenn85** · 08-16-14, 08:06 PM

do you disagree with anything i said? no need to strike back comeback hero, just admit it. there is something fluky about your strategy so far. Thats all. Im just here to bust you your balls. You should thank me. Congrats with youre watson win. But look how he lost that third round, what a garbage fighter.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-16-14, 11:31 PM

St Pruex points handicap +5 1/2

Risk 10 to win 11

**mirinquads** · 08-17-14, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

-37 dollar -37 units, its both so bad, you shouldnt even try to defend it. Youre happy being a loser. So you finally made it, here you are, stuck on a forum, a forum behind a screen, and still losing, congratulations. The world kneels mr.havent won a single dollar in 2014.

Dudes providing something to the forum at least (fade material, jk.) has the right mindset as a capper, just gotten unlucky. Don't be such a hoe, and save your hate for someone who deserves it.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-17-14, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by mirinquads

Dudes providing something to the forum at least (fade material, jk.) has the right mindset as a capper, just gotten unlucky. Don't be such a hoe, and save your hate for someone who deserves it.

Unlucky? I just capped that penetrating event better than half of these small dicks on this forum. I made that St Pruex bet when I was shit faced. I still take ownership of that bet and every bet on this thread.

penetrate BJpenn, dude is a little whiny cuntface

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-17-14, 05:36 PM

YTD
+$7.06

One of my favorite shows.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-21-14, 06:22 PM

Ok beautiful people, time for a flier NFL prop...

Andrew Luck to win MVP +2500

Andrew Luck is a really, really good football player.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-22-14, 04:10 PM

Titan FC 29:

George Sotiropoulos - Risk 12.50 to win 30.60

After watching George's fight with Noons, I am not convinced GSpot is as "done" as most believe. To be fair, his last four fights were against top 15 UFC talent, including Pearson and Dos Anos (two killers). I actually think he fought smartly and fairly well against Noons who posed a poor stylistic matchup for Gspot.

One victory against Jorge Gurgel does not convince me that "The Martian" is significantly better than a fighter who stuck around in the UFC for much longer. Age and reach is certainly a concern, but at the current odds I think Gspot is a good play. He has the superior grappling chops and decent enough boxing to win a decision or even submit Ricci.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-23-14, 02:37 PM

My mammary-glanded friend Gspot couldn't pull off the win, but I digress.

My plays so far for Fight Night 49:
Henderson points handicap -5 1/2 at -115 : Risk 33.75 to win 29.35
Alex Garcia -145 : Risk 36.25 to win 25
Beneil Dariush at +110 at +135 : Risk 20 to win 22.75

Dariush because he's the better striker, Garcia because he's a strong boy, and Henderson because he has tremendous cardio.

**bjpenn85** · 08-24-14, 06:29 AM

Do you sincerely mean that the way you play isnt a bit fluky? I hope you get back on track cause i take losing on mma like a breakup every time, but youre playing with to much risk in my opinion.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-24-14, 01:36 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Do you sincerely mean that the way you play isnt a bit fluky? I hope you get back on track cause i take losing on mma like a breakup every time, but youre playing with to much risk in my opinion.

Define risky.

**bjpenn85** · 08-24-14, 04:21 PM

The g-sot play was faulty. Lets say there are rules of mma betting. One those would def be to not bet on fighters on losing streaks. They tend to continue to lose even when facing lower level competition. G-sot chin is also questionable so def no value there IMO. thats a risky bet. I also didnt like the benson bet, and def not the garcia. Garcia had questionable gas tank, while benson often wins close fights, or even fights he shouldnt win. A lot of risk in all those bets.

**Bava** · 08-24-14, 10:48 PM

Reckon these are $ amounts, not units

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-25-14, 05:59 PM

I'm going to try my hand at Emmy's voting because I have nothing better to do (and I watch a lot of TV)

Veep wins Outstanding Comedy Series +750 : Risk 8 to win 60
Parsons wins Lead Actor in Comedy Series -115 : Risk 25 to win 21.74 (Courtesy of Nunya)

If Gervais wins for that piece of shit Derek, I will be sad.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-25-14, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by MarkWoodstick

If Gervais wins for that piece of shit Derek, I will be sad.

A lot of "experts" are predicting it now, but I don't think it happens.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-25-14, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by MarkWoodstick

I'm going to try my hand at Emmy's voting because I have nothing better to do (and I watch a lot of TV)

Veep wins Outstanding Comedy Series +750 : Risk 8 to win 60

Good luck on this. I think its a deserving winner, but theres a lot of good ones in this category, and I think you're going to see all the quirkier stuff steal votes from eachother and boring Modern Family will win again. I personally think Louie SHOULD win however.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-25-14, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Good luck on this. I think its a deserving winner, but theres a lot of good ones in this category, and I think you're going to see all the quirkier stuff steal votes from eachother and boring Modern Family will win again. I personally think Louie SHOULD win however.

I really don't think Modern Family wins, and I actually think betting the field against them is something I would definitely consider at -215. I threw a little on Veep just because it has been such a critical success. Orange will probably win because it has a strong combination of being a critical and huge commercial success in that new binge watching format on Netflix (which will also win some brownie points from the voters).

Is betting for both Veep straight up and Field vs. Modern Family in a parlay make sense from a numbers perspective?

**NunyaBidness** · 08-25-14, 06:43 PM

Originally posted by MarkWoodstick

Is betting for both Veep straight up and Field vs. Modern Family in a parlay make sense from a numbers perspective?

Yeah, it'd be huge value, but no book on earth would let you bet it.

**MarkWoodstick** · 08-25-14, 07:01 PM

Last bet at the last second:

Tonight Show +240 : Risk 10 to win 24

**Vaughany** · 08-26-14, 05:30 AM

So Breaking Bad cleaned up!