UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustafsson (September 21, 2013)

**Noleafclover** · 09-20-13, 08:00 PM

All to win 1u

Kimura -160
Schaub/Mitrione >1.5 -135 + Barao ITD -180 (+170)
Carmont decision +250

**Noleafclover** · 09-20-13, 08:01 PM

I should have played the parlay separately to get more down, I just had it in my head that I was gonna parlay Barao (was initially thinking straight).

Edit: Throw another half unit down on Barao ITD.

MD · 09-20-13, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

All to win 1u

Kimura -160
Schaub/Mitrione >1.5 -135 + Barao ITD -180 (+170)
Carmont decision +250

Why do you like the over in the Mitrione fight? If Mitrione wins, it should almost always go under, and if Schaub wins, it goes over the majority of the time I'd imagine, but an early sub, or very rarely a KO, are decent possibilities.

**Noleafclover** · 09-20-13, 11:21 PM

Originally posted by MD

Why do you like the over in the Mitrione fight? If Mitrione wins, it should almost always go under, and if Schaub wins, it goes over the majority of the time I'd imagine, but an early sub, or very rarely a KO, are decent possibilities.

-Schaub's got the fight IQ to know what needs done, should be able to keep Mitrione up against the cage or on the ground, at least for a while. Hope they don't draw Yamasaki though.

-I don't really see an early Schaub finish at all. He has no sub wins and no KO wins in his two substantially competitive fights (Johnson, Gonzaga), and Mitrione has the reach.

-Schaub's chin problems are somewhat much ado about nothing, Rothwell Nogueira and Nelson have some of the most power in the division, certainly more than Mitrione.

-See a lot of similarity between this and the Beltran fight, and also Mitrione is just generally not very good at dictating where a fight goes.

---Mainly, most early finishes from both fighters have come against weaker competition (discounting Mitrione's fluky deFries KO), and this is a step up.

I do lean Mitrione very slightly, and would say that a small majority of his wins come before the halfway point, but still think this goes over 2 of 3 times.

MD · 09-20-13, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

-Schaub's got the fight IQ to know what needs done, should be able to keep Mitrione up against the cage or on the ground, at least for a while. Hope they don't draw Yamasaki though.

-I don't really see an early Schaub finish at all. He has no sub wins and no KO wins in his two substantially competitive fights (Johnson, Gonzaga), and Mitrione has the reach.

-Schaub's chin problems are somewhat much ado about nothing, Rothwell Nogueira and Nelson have some of the most power in the division, certainly more than Mitrione.

-See a lot of similarity between this and the Beltran fight, and also Mitrione is just generally not very good at dictating where a fight goes.

---Mainly, most early finishes from both fighters have come against weaker competition (discounting Mitrione's fluky deFries KO), and this is a step up.

I do lean Mitrione very slightly, and would say that a small majority of his wins come before the halfway point, but still think this goes over 2 of 3 times.

I think you're underestimating how bad Schaub's chin is. It's really, really bad, and I generally avoid labelling people as chinny. Nogueira is no hard hitter, by the way.

**Imsmarterthanu** · 09-21-13, 12:12 AM

if Mitrione connects once on Schaub it's good night for him but i think Schaub has Mitrione a little head strong so i think the fight is jinxed and something weird is going to happen

**Noleafclover** · 09-21-13, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by MD

I think you're underestimating how bad Schaub's chin is. It's really, really bad, and I generally avoid labelling people as chinny. Nogueira is no hard hitter, by the way.

Hope you're wrong or that Schaub controls the fight. Nogueira's always struck me as having that old-man strength.

TBH though I did most of the film-watching the first time the fight was scheduled, and thought it was tough to call then... the over just feels like Schaub+ though, that was what drew me.

**rosietop** · 09-21-13, 02:26 AM

mitrione is a can he lost the first round to beltran, lavar destroyed beltran and shaub dominated a lavar on the juice

**Vaughany** · 09-21-13, 02:30 AM

Originally posted by rosietop

mitrione is a can he lost the first round to beltran, lavar destroyed beltran and shaub dominated a lavar on the juice

Mmamath is strong in this one.

**Imsmarterthanu** · 09-21-13, 02:52 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Mmamath is strong in this one.

that's advanced Mmamath that's like algebra of mma math

**Vaughany** · 09-21-13, 03:01 AM

pythagorean theorem

**Imsmarterthanu** · 09-21-13, 03:12 AM

**getlucky2win** · 09-21-13, 04:17 AM

Gus +800 at cantor and menjivar -145

**Luca Fury** · 09-21-13, 05:25 AM

As I posted earlier in this thread, I took Jones by decision at +500 for 3 units. Bought off it for half the amount down to 1.5 units with NOT Jones by decision at a scalp of -395. So now I have 1.5 units on Jones by decision at true odds of +605

**Vaughany** · 09-21-13, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by Luca Fury

As I posted earlier in this thread, I took Jones by decision at +500 for 3 units. Bought off it for half the amount down to 1.5 units with NOT Jones by decision at a scalp of -395. So now I have 1.5 units on Jones by decision at true odds of +605

MD · 09-21-13, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by Luca Fury

As I posted earlier in this thread, I took Jones by decision at +500 for 3 units. Bought off it for half the amount down to 1.5 units with NOT Jones by decision at a scalp of -395. So now I have 1.5 units on Jones by decision at true odds of +605

**plekz** · 09-21-13, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by Luca Fury

As I posted earlier in this thread, I took Jones by decision at +500 for 3 units. Bought off it for half the amount down to 1.5 units with NOT Jones by decision at a scalp of -395. So now I have 1.5 units on Jones by decision at true odds of +605

Yeah good thing you havent flipflopped all over the place on that. What happened to that Jones has Dhalsim's arms and Gustafsson is a t-rex bullshit you were on a few weeks back?

Or how UFC tale of the tape are gospels?

Such a fruitcake.

**Vaughany** · 09-21-13, 09:27 AM

lol

**mmaed** · 09-21-13, 10:23 AM

Looking at my possible plays for tonight. So far I am very confident in Barao. I was thinking of making a bunch of different parlays involving him. My list of possibles is as follows: Jury, Nurma, Menjivar, Menjivar-Reis goes to decision, Prazeres and Makdessi. I think Nurma is the better grappler of the two and has better striking, Jury should be able to take Ricci down, Menjivar seems more well rounded than Reis but I'm not a 100 percent sold on him, Neither reis or Menjivar should get the stoppage, Prazeres did really well on short notice against Paulo Thiago at 170. Lastly Makdessi seems to be improving but I am still worried about his takedown defense. Sorry my breakdowns aren't very long but I would be glad to discuss my opinions with anyone.

**plekz** · 09-21-13, 10:44 AM

Fairly confident Barao is gonna tire Wineland out and take him down and sub him at some point, the over on Carmont v Phillipou also feels like a given.

**Ron_Paul_2012** · 09-21-13, 10:51 AM

Menjivar vs Reis is a coin flip. Reis looked decent in his last fight vs Roddy. I would stay away from the fight all together. I have a LARGE amount on a Nurmy parlay. I have him parlayed with Mayweather & Jones. If he loses I very well may light myself on fire.

But then cool off with a tasty popsicle.

MD · 09-21-13, 12:47 PM

ITT: Odds and probabilities don't exist. There is only winnerz.

**DSSCA** · 09-21-13, 01:00 PM

Originally posted by plekz

Fairly confident Barao is gonna tire Wineland out and take him down and sub him at some point, the over on Carmont v Phillipou also feels like a given.

Wineland uses a lot of angles and footwork but tends to drop his hands and get a little sloppy in exchanges. Id say there is a better chance of him getting caught in one of those exchanges and TKOd rather than BARAO tiring Wineland out and subbing him. To each their own though.

**mmaed** · 09-21-13, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by DSSCA

Wineland uses a lot of angles and footwork but tends to drop his hands and get a little sloppy in exchanges. Id say there is a better chance of him getting caught in one of those exchanges and TKOd rather than BARAO tiring Wineland out and subbing him. To each their own though.

Or Barao catching Wineland in an exchange and jumping on his back for the submission.

**plekz** · 09-21-13, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by DSSCA

Wineland uses a lot of angles and footwork but tends to drop his hands and get a little sloppy in exchanges. Id say there is a better chance of him getting caught in one of those exchanges and TKOd rather than BARAO tiring Wineland out and subbing him. To each their own though.

Wineland is still a dayjob kind of fighter, and Barao is the type of fighter that goes back to his bread and butter when he hurts people, ie he'll jump for subs. I think odds are fairly high Wineland tires here (considering he's tired several times before)

**sideloaded** · 09-21-13, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by Luca Fury

As I posted earlier in this thread, I took Jones by decision at +500 for 3 units. Bought off it for half the amount down to 1.5 units with NOT Jones by decision at a scalp of -395. So now I have 1.5 units on Jones by decision at true odds of +605

lol wut? played these at 5d I assume? WOuldnt a professional advise NEVER arbing at the SAME book?? Maybe im wrong here. Nunya how do you feel about arbing with the same book?

**plekz** · 09-21-13, 02:02 PM

Euro books have Gustafsson KOTN @ 28x the money, that's just lazy research on their part.

**sideloaded** · 09-21-13, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by plekz

Euro books have Gustafsson KOTN @ 28x the money, that's just lazy research on their part.

what are the odds in sweden? any special Gustafsson props?

**Noleafclover** · 09-21-13, 02:22 PM

Originally posted by DSSCA

Wineland uses a lot of angles and footwork but tends to drop his hands and get a little sloppy in exchanges.

Little sloppy is putting it mildly. But one punch doesn't put him out here, and its more likely Barao goes to the sub to finish.

**Vaughany** · 09-21-13, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

what are the odds in sweden? any special Gustafsson props?

Whatever is on unibet

**Rubber Guard** · 09-21-13, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by MD

Wineland was 135.25. That's overweight for a title fight, right?

GSP didn't have to make 170 vs. Diaz.

Its Canada.

MD · 09-21-13, 03:13 PM

Originally posted by Rubber Guard

GSP didn't have to make 170 vs. Diaz.

Its Canada.

That was also corrupt as f-ck, though.

**Thor4140** · 09-21-13, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Mmamath is strong in this one.

**Thor4140** · 09-21-13, 03:27 PM

Carmont fight is dropping yet i haven't seen one guy anywhere on him.

I wouldn't waste my time on this fellas. Phillpou might beat him from pillar to post but that huge size advantage may luck Carmont into those 1 takedown a round wins. Not worth the risk. This could be a CJ Ross special. I hope not. I tired of seeing this guy get bogus decisions. Now that i seen the weighins im gonna take a shot on Ricci. Why not. Kid had good hands and isn't fighting a lay and prayer. JOnes up to 1000 now. Books don't want a dime on him. Who in their right mind could lay that type of juice with two fighters this tough? How can u risk his toe or some shit like that blowing out again for ten to 1 odds? Wineland will do nice for about a round and then it will be dominace by the brazilian in my opinion. Gonna go small on Mitrone. This is a toss up. Prolly could be a lock if u knew meathead would go after the chin but after the first round he might want to wrestle. One kick can end Schaubs night. Also liked the Russian kids chances until i saw the weigh in and the big size advantage Healy has. No play there.

**Noleafclover** · 09-21-13, 03:44 PM

Originally posted by Thor4140

Carmont fight is dropping yet i haven't seen one guy anywhere on him.

You keep saying this, and I keep not seeing all this Philippou love you're feeling. I'm on Carmont decision. The guys on the SBRPreview like Carmont. Haven't seen anyone on Philippou or even really discussing this. Here in reality, Carmont can be the more active fighter here for the decision. But sure, its just another conspiracy where I had the right side when he wins. Maybe I'm fixing the fights!