UFC Fight Night: Teixeira Vs Bader (September 04, 2013)

**Noleafclover** · 09-04-13, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

I bet Ali Baba straight. I had him by TKO 2nd round for Fantasy League. Off by a few minutes but a win is a win.

Hey Ron Paul, still waitin to hear where you got 5k down on Mendes -375

Originally posted by Luca Fury

Been a brutal streak of bad luck, capped off by the absurdly unlucky last week to put me at only tiny profit for the last 2 months. This break even slump came after I only lost 1 event in 4 months, though, so I will glad take 4 huge winning months followed by 2 months of tiny profit. This is the pattern that my betting usually follows. It's been doing that for years now.

New to MMA, but found the same pattern in NFL for me. Hypothesis is that I feel unstoppable and get lazy/emotional, forever trying to break the cycle but no luck.

Originally posted by Luca Fury

My average sized bet is 3 units, so 10u is like 3.3u to most other people who bet 1u per play.

My average bet size is nominally 1u because thats the easiest way to do it IMO, I know that 1u = 3.33%, and thats enough for me. Hundred-base is annoying, prefer 1u=average. Its definitely a to each his own thing, but I'm still very opinionated about this

**PunisherIND** · 09-04-13, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Abogado how much you got on Tex?

1hooker beej or 2?

1 beej on glubber by sub +325
5 beej on glubber itd -240

**Das Jax** · 09-04-13, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by MD

No one's plays baffle me more than yours. No offence.

Heh, I suspect you're basing that opinion on my Not Mcdonald by Decision bet against Ellenberger, but I think I've sufficiently explained the reasoning behind that oh-so-unfortunate play.

As far as this last one goes, I didn't think it would go the distance and thought the odds were decent. The free roll bet was purely line based. I'm trying to catch a free roll lottery ticket or two and that seemed like as reasonable a stab as any.

**Luca Fury** · 09-04-13, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by mmaed

Who ya predicting for Bader vs Tex?

Definitely favoring Teixeira but he is very overrated. I just don't think Bader is the guy to expose him. Still can't touch Glover at -400.

Teixiera has a chin on the weaker side and bad cardio, but Bader has a worse chin and worse cardio. Glover likely rocks him and subs him within 2 rounds, but if it goes longer, we could see a very tired and sloppy back-and-forth grappling match.

**terpkeg** · 09-04-13, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by Luca Fury

BOOM! Just hit Hallman +600 in live betting! Even tweeted it mid-round for proof

You want a fukin cookie....Tweeting! I'm trying to bet the thing for 2 minutes as they keep dropping the line on me during my unbearable delay. Maybe if we are lucky and everyone hammers live mma lines, they will get tighter.

**Sykes** · 09-04-13, 08:00 PM

top contender right there.

**Imsmarterthanu** · 09-04-13, 08:01 PM

beastin

**Tommy Blingshyne** · 09-04-13, 08:01 PM

Jacare is super legit, that def puts him near the top of the list for a MW title shot

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 09-04-13, 08:01 PM

yup, he gets Weidman/Silva 2 winner

**21jumpstreet** · 09-04-13, 08:02 PM

F me didn't think he had that in him

**Luca Fury** · 09-04-13, 08:02 PM

Boom, easy money. Jacare closes out the parlay. 3-1 for +8.05 units for me. 3/4 bets were underdogs too

**Beelzebubzy** · 09-04-13, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

yup, he gets Weidman/Silva 2 winner

Vitor beats Hendo, Jacare will have to win one more. Most likely Munoz vs Bisping winner

**Beelzebubzy** · 09-04-13, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by Luca Fury

Definitely favoring Teixeira but he is very overrated. I just don't think Bader is the guy to expose him. Still can't touch Glover at -400.

Teixiera has a chin on the weaker side and bad cardio, but Bader has a worse chin and worse cardio. Glover likely rocks him and subs him within 2 rounds, but if it goes longer, we could see a very tired and sloppy back-and-forth grappling match.

Money is coming in on Going 5 rounds

**mmaed** · 09-04-13, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by Luca Fury

Definitely favoring Teixeira but he is very overrated. I just don't think Bader is the guy to expose him. Still can't touch Glover at -400.

Teixiera has a chin on the weaker side and bad cardio, but Bader has a worse chin and worse cardio. Glover likely rocks him and subs him within 2 rounds, but if it goes longer, we could see a very tired and sloppy back-and-forth grappling match.

Yeah I worry the same thing and if it goes a long time the wrestler can usually take over. Bader isn't amazing at using his wrestling on someone that can threaten on the feet though. He had trouble with Jardine, Machida demolished him, he beat a fat out of shape rampage, and has mostly handled mid to lower tier competition with the exception of lil nog. That was back when lil nog was new to the ufc though. His wrestling probably wasn't up to the level that it is now. I do agree Glover is overrated but he is a nasty finisher.

**NunyaBidness** · 09-04-13, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by terpkeg

You want a fukin cookie....Tweeting! I'm trying to bet the thing for 2 minutes as they keep dropping the line on me during my unbearable delay. Maybe if we are lucky and everyone hammers live mma lines, they will get tighter.

Yeah, no penetrating doubt.

Its like that guy who was claiming he could walk the jewelery district everyday and pick up enough off the street to make a living. Bunch of articles were written about him and what he was doing; now he can't seem to find anything anymore.

Play your hands a little closer to the vest, fellas.

**canadabetting** · 09-04-13, 08:04 PM

Im hoping this fight goes 3 rounds or over... thats what i bet on lol

MD · 09-04-13, 08:07 PM

Originally posted by Das Jax

Heh, I suspect you're basing that opinion on my Not Mcdonald by Decision bet against Ellenberger, but I think I've sufficiently explained the reasoning behind that oh-so-unfortunate play.

As far as this last one goes, I didn't think it would go the distance and thought the odds were decent. The free roll bet was purely line based. I'm trying to catch a free roll lottery ticket or two and that seemed like as reasonable a stab as any.

I don't think the Not MacDonald Decision bet made sense, and I don't think that either of your earlier bets made sense. If anything I would have done the opposite and bet Silva decision and Benavidez KO. There was some other bet I saw you make recently that I thought made absolutely no sense, either. I want to say it was another Not ____ bet. Either way, yeah, not intended as an insult, I just don't understand how you think.

**Thor4140** · 09-04-13, 08:10 PM

line plummeting on Glover

**jacktheknife** · 09-04-13, 08:10 PM

Okami fought that one dumb. So much for that clinch. Knee with back to cage eenstead!

**jacktheknife** · 09-04-13, 08:10 PM

Originally posted by Thor4140

line plummeting on Glover

Yeah, Cheal's been stroking Bader all night.

**Beelzebubzy** · 09-04-13, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by jacktheknife

Yeah, Cheal's been stroking Bader all night.

then wouldnt 'sharps' be stroking the line on Tex?

**Bdolan33** · 09-04-13, 08:12 PM

Lol Chael

**jacktheknife** · 09-04-13, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

then wouldnt 'sharps' be stroking the line on Tex?

Just lemme check the high-powered software.

**Thor4140** · 09-04-13, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by jacktheknife

Yeah, Cheal's been stroking Bader all night.

Has he got a fight right in the last two years?

**Bdolan33** · 09-04-13, 08:17 PM

Chael is a troll

**jacktheknife** · 09-04-13, 08:18 PM

Pfft, no Imperial March. Instant fade.

MD · 09-04-13, 08:19 PM

'Capped Glover ITD at around -380. Am I overvaluing it? Nunya?

**Sykes** · 09-04-13, 08:19 PM

gl betting on this one fellas, work is getting in the way of my fun.

**Das Jax** · 09-04-13, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by MD

I don't think the Not MacDonald Decision bet made sense, and I don't think that either of your earlier bets made sense. If anything I would have done the opposite and bet Silva decision and Benavidez KO. There was some other bet I saw you make recently that I thought made absolutely no sense, either. I want to say it was another Not ____ bet. Either way, yeah, not intended as an insult, I just don't understand how you think.

Fair enough. I do tend to be a lot of "Not" bets as I think it usually makes more sense to bet that something WON'T happen rather than that it will, given multiple possible outcomes. That obviously depends on the fight, of course, but I'll acknowledge a general trend.

**jacktheknife** · 09-04-13, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by MD

'Capped Glover ITD at around -380. Am I overvaluing it? Nunya?

The software has displeased you.

**Das Jax** · 09-04-13, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by MD

'Capped Glover ITD at around -380. Am I overvaluing it? Nunya?

I think so. I consider Bader more of a threat than some though, so I'd cap Glover ITD at -200 or so.

**NunyaBidness** · 09-04-13, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by MD

'Capped Glover ITD at around -380. Am I overvaluing it? Nunya?

Tough to tell, IMO.

I'm on Bader ITD at +720, think he's being undervalued here. Guess we both agree on fight won't go the distance.

I expect to lose that bet about 75 - 80% of the time.

MD · 09-04-13, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by Das Jax

I think so. I consider Bader more of a threat than some though, so I'd cap Glover ITD at -200 or so.

I think if he wins, it's almost always ITD, but he's never fought an aggressive wrestler. Is Bader an aggressive wrestler? He can be. I suppose it depends on his mindframe.

**Das Jax** · 09-04-13, 08:24 PM

For posterity's sake, I played Not Bader by Decision large and fight goes over 1.5 medium.

**Das Jax** · 09-04-13, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by MD

I think if he wins, it's almost always ITD, but he's never fought an aggressive wrestler. Is Bader an aggressive wrestler? He can be. I suppose it depends on his mindframe.

Agreed.