UFC 163: Aldo vs Korean Zombie (8-3-13)

[NunyaBidness]

Don't think you have to worry about that with Sheila "punch over top of the glovetouch" Gaff.

[Sato]

Sheilas a good girl, shes just misunderstood.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Date: August 3, 2013
Location: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Venue: HSBC Arena
Broadcast: PPV, FX, Facebook

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)

• Jose Aldo vs. Chan Sung Jung - for featherweight title
• Phil Davis vs. Lyoto Machida
• Josh Koscheck vs. Demian Maia
• Cezar Ferreira vs. Clint Hester
• John Lineker vs. Phil Harris

PRELIMINARY CARD (FX, 8 p.m. ET)

• Vinny Magalhaes vs. Anthony Perosh
• Sheila Gaff vs. Amanda Nunes
• Neil Magny vs. Sergio Moraes
• Thales Leites vs. Tom Watson

PRELIMINARY CARD (Facebook, 6:35 p.m. ET)

• Josh Clopton vs. Rani Yahya
• Ian McCall vs. Iliarde Santos
• Viscardi Andrade vs. Bristol Marunde
• Robert Drysdale vs. Ednaldo Oliveira

My picks are the following. Oliveira, Magny, Andrade, McCall, Yahya, Gaff, Lineker, Ferreira, Leites, Magalhaes, Machida, Aldo. My plays are almost always made when the lines first come out. I believe it important that one comes to conclusions without the opinions of others. I believe that message boards can have the unintended effect of becoming an echo chamber. This "group think" can have detrimental effects to the individual "pattern recognizer". I do not consider what I do to be gambling. I am simply using deductive reasoning & recognizing pattern's in human behavior in order to arrive at accurate conclusions. My plays are the following. Aldo/Machida parlay, Aldo/Magalhaes parlay, Aldo/Yahya parlay, Aldo/Lineker parlay, Aldo/Leites parlay, Aldo/Machida/Magalhaes/Yahya parlay, Aldo/Machida/Magalhaes/Yahya/Lineker parlay. There are a few live dogs that are under consideration. Wagers will be placed in accordance to line movement. By looking at my picks vs my plays it should be obvious who the live dogs are. I wish all a wonderful weekend.

[Dwil125]

I think the won't start rd 3 line is better at -175. Neither have the greatest cardio, the majority of the finishes will occur very early.

Played it, good call.

[Dwil125]

I wouldn't do Yahya straight up, take his point spread if anything.

[Dwil125]

Don't think you have to worry about that with Sheila "punch over top of the glovetouch" Gaff.

I was gonna say no need to worry about that, there both going to come out swinging.

[PunisherIND]

I wouldn't do Yahya straight up, take his point spread if anything.

take yahya by sub. if this goes to the cards, are you that confident yahya wins 30-27?

[Dwil125]

If it goes to the cards (which is unlikey) yahya by sub automatically loses though? I think he wins every round because he's going to control most of the fight so his conditioning won't come into play as much. It would cover a tko from mount or back mount too. Yahya by sub seems like a better straight play, but he was throwing him in there as a parlay filler.

[PunisherIND]

If it goes to the cards (which is unlikey) yahya by sub automatically loses though? I think he wins every round because he's going to control most of the fight so his conditioning won't come into play as much. It would cover a tko from mount or back mount too. Yahya by sub seems like a better straight play, but he was throwing him in there as a parlay filler.

if you think he wins every round, then yea, go with points handicap. my personal feeling, if he doesnt get the sub, that means the majority of the fight took place standing. in which case i wouldnt be confident in 30-27 for yahya.

yahya wont get the tko. i actually like Not yayha by tko at -1400.

[NunyaBidness]

if you think he wins every round, then yea, go with points handicap. my personal feeling, if he doesnt get the sub, that means the majority of the fight took place standing. in which case i wouldnt be confident in 30-27 for yahya.

I don't think its unreasonable to think Yahya could grind out a dec from the top with Clopton surviving. But, at the price that -3.5 is, its a terrible spot, IMO.

[ArchieUD]

I like Lineker ITD @ -120 and Magny +3.5 @ -165 (liked it better when it was at -150 obv, but I would play this down to -185, maybe -200)

[Noleafclover]

How biased are the Brazilian judges if it comes to Brazilian v foreigner? Looking at some of these decision props.

[Noleafclover]

I like Lineker ITD @ -120 and Magny +3.5 @ -165 (liked it better when it was at -150 obv, but I would play this down to -185, maybe -200)

You see a 16% chance of him losing but covering the spread on the cards? (46.5% @ +115, 62.2% -165)

[mirinquads]

Don't be point spreads against Brazilians in Brazil man.. Morares is going to try and grind him up against the fence and their are going to reward him points for it even though he aint doing shit with it.

[sideloaded]

any word on the judges yet? I assume they are from the US?

[ArchieUD]

You see a 16% chance of him losing but covering the spread on the cards? (46.5% @ +115, 62.2% -165)

You mean why not play him straight instead? At the time I played Magny was only +105, so I felt more confident when he only needs to win one round at those odds. Still a very valid point you are poseing. I Don't think Moraes will finish Magny, but like Mirin says the judges are likely to give Moraes points for grinding. I think Magny is a better fighter than Moraes, but a 29-28 victory for Magny can be awarded to Moraes..

[Vaughany]

any word on the judges yet? I assume they are from the US?

Simon Cowell, Sharron Osbourne, and the guy from the Script I believe

[DoggyStyle]

This is a horrible card! That being said im just doing a chalky parlay Aldo/Machida/Magalhaes. Would be a decent card if Kos and Maia fight was still on. The only one that legitimately could be upset out of those 3 is Magalhaes but Aldo and Machida are stone cold s

[sideloaded]

Das beste Team, was ich mir vorstellen kann. Leider hat mein vorheriger Manager, ohne es mit mir abzusprechen, zwei Betreuer bei der UFC angegeben (wegen der Arbeitserlaubnis). Somit werde ich am Samstag nicht von meinem Team ('nur' Andre ist als Vertrauensperson dabei) betreut
Vielen Dank an BJJ blackbelt Dennis Asche und Alex Davis, dass sie mich kurzerhand mit unterstützen werden und das mich mein Team hier in Rio bis zum Kampftag bestens einstellt!

[sideloaded]

lol'rs i think Sheila doesnt have any coaches in brasil and the manager of a lot of Brazilian fighters Alex Davis is going to corner her. Oh lawdy...

[sideloaded]

under looks good

[MD]

Why is Gaff KO +700? She pretty much only wins by KO.

[sideloaded]

Was +925 MD brosph

[sideloaded]

need my nikka Sato to roll through and help me translate that a little better

[goodfellas433]

100 on that +700 in case the initial blitz catches Nunes, thanks for posting it

[sideloaded]

yeah if you're betting gaff ko is the way to go. Probably under too. Not a chance Gaff wins a decision. Heavy on the under and Nunes point spread and not gaff by decision.

[goodfellas433]

I'm big on the under as well, also played won't hit round two. Not sure how I ended up with having so much on the only female MMA fight on the Card though, shit

[sideloaded]

where is sato need to make sure what that shit says

[Thor4140]

Can't believe all this love for Machida. This has all the makings of the most boring fight of the year going to a split decision. Bullshit with this "it is in Brazil" nonsense. If Machida is getting pounded with money he will lose the split. I see it is now 4 to 1 so that will most surely scare a lot of the Machida money away but im guessing on that. Total no play for me. "it is in Brazil" works with low volume betting which will be a lot of these fights.

[MD]

Can't believe all this love for Machida. This has all the makings of the most boring fight of the year going to a split decision. Bullshit with this "it is in Brazil" nonsense. If Machida is getting pounded with money he will lose the split. I see it is now 4 to 1 so that will most surely scare a lot of the Machida money away but im guessing on that. Total no play for me. "it is in Brazil" works with low volume betting which will be a lot of these fights.

Bader is a more dangerous opponent than Davis, to be honest. Bader rushed at Machida and got brutally KO'd, and that's something Davis won't do, but that's exactly what Bader had to do. He was getting picked apart, and he showed that he was willing to try an all-or-nothing gamble. I respect that, that's the kind of guy you want to bet on. Davis, on the other hand, will spend three rounds getting picked apart by the guy with the best movement in MMA. I don't see it being close unless Davis has a really good game plan and really exploits his reach. He'll need to jump up several notches to catch Machida.

[sideloaded]

Can't believe all this love for Machida. This has all the makings of the most boring fight of the year going to a split decision. Bullshit with this "it is in Brazil" nonsense. If Machida is getting pounded with money he will lose the split. I see it is now 4 to 1 so that will most surely scare a lot of the Machida money away but im guessing on that. Total no play for me. "it is in Brazil" works with low volume betting which will be a lot of these fights.

bro, im telling you right now i got about 50 hrs into capping this gaff vs nunes. I've never been so sure of a under in my life. This fight doesnt each the bell

[ArchieUD]

bro, im telling you right now i got about 50 hrs into capping this gaff vs nunes. I've never been so sure of a under in my life. This fight doesnt each the bell

#dedication

[sideloaded]

after the under I think nunes +300 by sub has a lot of value

[sideloaded]

#dedication

im just waiting for the day all the hours of footage i have of Celine Haga pays off. Waking up at 4 am to screencap road fc 12 off some korean degen streaming site. I want my life to mean something.

[Sato]

Das beste Team, was ich mir vorstellen kann. Leider hat mein vorheriger Manager, ohne es mit mir abzusprechen, zwei Betreuer bei der UFC angegeben (wegen der Arbeitserlaubnis). Somit werde ich am Samstag nicht von meinem Team ('nur' Andre ist als Vertrauensperson dabei) betreut
Vielen Dank an BJJ blackbelt Dennis Asche und Alex Davis, dass sie mich kurzerhand mit unterstützen werden und das mich mein Team hier in Rio bis zum Kampftag bestens einstellt!

Sheilas previous manager picked two people to be part of her team for her fight (due to work permit...brazil) without telling her in advance. Thats why there will be only one trusted person in her entourage named Andre.

I dont know if those 2 are FROM the UFC or other guys. Either way...It doesnt look good anyhow for Sheila.
Just unload on the under/ITD