UFC on FX 8: Mighty Mouse vs Moraga (7-27-13)

[mirinquads]

Okay im gonna hang my self. I was going to make big money on Kos in that shit

[mirinquads]

Anyone else draw parallels from this Rory v Jake fight to the Rockhold/belfort fight?

One is clearly the technically superior fighter, better cardio and so forth, other has the power advantage and knows how to put hands on you. I bet Belfort Big, and in Rounds 1-2 in the other fight. The difference here is you're getting Ellenberger at even higher plus money, against a bit more unproven guy in Rory. On paper he certainly looks like a beast, and the kicking game he was pummeling BJ with looked much improved. If he can get The Burgers respect with those early, that might set the tone for the fight. However pummeling and old BJ who should be 2 weightclasses below you is hardly impressive.

I suppose Rory should roll here, but Im not sure i can back him at that price. Might do some sort of hedge thing.

How do you guys see the wrestling matching up? Can Burger keep Rory down? The TDD Burger has displayed in the past has been a thing of beauty.

[mmaed]

Rory will probably have some trouble taking him down. I also would think he would have trouble trying to clinch Jake and wear him out because it would be difficult for him to get inside and get underhooks with the amount of power Jake possesses. He could easily get knocket out if he kept trying to tie him up. I think Rory will use the range technique's gameplan. Most likely lots of kicks. That keeps him out of range of Jakes power punches. Takedowns I don't really know about. Who knows maybe he'll try to push him up against the cage. I see Rory having a difficult time outwrestling him. Especially in the first and second rounds.

[mirinquads]

Yep, thing is, Rorys takedown D has been pretty excellent so far, but then again, he has never faced a solid wrestler like Burger. I could certainly see Burger take him down and pound on his head to a stoppage ala Condit, or just steal rounds that way.

[mirinquads]

Means in against Castillo..

Would take the prefight sauna at plus money or the prefight warmup broken ankel at +250ish.

[mmaed]

I like Castillo to take him down. Line will probably suck. I don't know about Ellenberger outwrestling Rory. I would be surprised if Rory is easy to take down.

[Vaughany]

Anyone else draw parallels from this Rory v Jake fight to the Rockhold/belfort fight?

One is clearly the technically superior fighter, better cardio and so forth, other has the power advantage and knows how to put hands on you. I bet Belfort Big, and in Rounds 1-2 in the other fight. The difference here is you're getting Ellenberger at even higher plus money, against a bit more unproven guy in Rory. On paper he certainly looks like a beast, and the kicking game he was pummeling BJ with looked much improved. If he can get The Burgers respect with those early, that might set the tone for the fight. However pummeling and old BJ who should be 2 weightclasses below you is hardly impressive.

I suppose Rory should roll here, but Im not sure i can back him at that price. Might do some sort of hedge thing.

How do you guys see the wrestling matching up? Can Burger keep Rory down? The TDD Burger has displayed in the past has been a thing of beauty.

Have a look in MD's thread, we've talked about it in there

[Noleafclover]

f\*\*k i liked green against castillo a lot

[Vaughany]

Voelker at +265, Lawler -320, does Lawler really win this over 75% of the time?!

[MD]

Voelker at +265, Lawler -320, does Lawler really win this over 75% of the time?!

Voelker isn't technically great, and Lawler has a pretty good chin. Lawler should be able to take Voelker down fairly reliably.

Voelker is one of my favourite fighters though, and I'd love to see him pull out the upset. He has the willpower, cardio and heart to beat anyone. Watch either of the Roger Bowling fights to see how much of an animal the guy is.

[DSSCA]

I definitely do not think so. Voekler has the power to sleep Lawler. It's not like Lawler is the most technical striker either, he leaves himself open constantly. I agree that line is off. Lawlers name is most likely the reason.

[Vaughany]

Finishing somebody like Koscheck in first round is always going to lead to a slightly inflated line I guess.

[DSSCA]

Just to clarify, my response was to V, not MD. Just to avoid any confusion.

[Beelzebubzy]

Voelker at +265, Lawler -320, does Lawler really win this over 75% of the time?!

I hit it small.

[mirinquads]

3u on Lyoto, Mighty Mouse and Not Chael within the distance, at evens. All generous lines.

[Rubber Guard]

Any read on the Masvidal line?

[DSSCA]

Given Masvidal has won by KO/TKO in 10 of 24 victories, has fought some top level guys and Chiesa has some of the worst timing and overall stand up (In my opinion) I think Masvidal KOs him 30% of the time. I know he hasn't KOed anyone of note in a while, but I just REALLY think Chiesa is soft and will wilt. It's most likely more of a play that Chiesa will be lost in any kind of exchange and get tagged than my thoughts that Masvidal is a killer. I'll play +230. I believe that is being conservative too. His accuracy and Chiesa being a bearded Glass Joe is what pushes me on this one. Not too mention if Melendez did not exactly abuse Masvidal w/ takedowns enough to finish, I don't see Chiesa being able to conistantly take him down. Masvidal has a much better gas tank. I think Chiesa will gas and then get finished. I need to do a lot more research to nail it down, but this is just my stream of consciousness @ the moment. Going to have to look @ a lot of aspects and %s before I decide. You have thoughts on it?

In response to Rubber,
These are my thoughts posted earlier.

[Rubber Guard]

I have nothing against him, but Chiesa seems like a guy I would underrate.

[Beelzebubzy]

Anyone on Faber?

[MD]

Anyone on Faber?

I'm waiting to see where the line ends up before I take a position. Hoping the public is as stupid as I think it is.

[Rubber Guard]

All day the -210 line was great.

[Crassus]

Has Rory really only fought two guys with ranked wins at 170?

[MD]

Has Rory really only fought two guys with ranked wins at 170?

No.

[Crassus]

No.

Condit and B.J. who else?

[Thor4140]

Condit and B.J. who else?

Cody Mckenzie when he fought at 170

[sideloaded]

whats up with roidy having all that bacne?

[Tommy Blingshyne]

kinda hard for me to go against Faber especially in non title fights...outside of his recent failed title bids hes been stellar...pretty much running thru some of the top BWs...dias was able to take yuri down in each round of their fight and work GNP and subs...faber has great wrestling and great subs so i imagine hed be able to do the same...

[Thor4140]

Given Masvidal has won by KO/TKO in 10 of 24 victories, has fought some top level guys and Chiesa has some of the worst timing and overall stand up (In my opinion) I think Masvidal KOs him 30% of the time. I know he hasn't KOed anyone of note in a while, but I just REALLY think Chiesa is soft and will wilt. It's most likely more of a play that Chiesa will be lost in any kind of exchange and get tagged than my thoughts that Masvidal is a killer. I'll play +230. I believe that is being conservative too. His accuracy and Chiesa being a bearded Glass Joe is what pushes me on this one. Not too mention if Melendez did not exactly abuse Masvidal w/ takedowns enough to finish, I don't see Chiesa being able to conistantly take him down. Masvidal has a much better gas tank. I think Chiesa will gas and then get finished. I need to do a lot more research to nail it down, but this is just my stream of consciousness @ the moment. Going to have to look @ a lot of aspects and %s before I decide. You have thoughts on it?

Man i have the same feelings as u about Chiesa and i lose every time i bet against this lucky prick. Masvidal isn't the brightest fighter out there either. Anyone with an ounce of brains knows if u hit Chiesa in the body he crumbles but knowing it and actually doing it seems tough for some of these brain dead fighters. I think Masvidal went brain dead his last fight and against Menedez he had a great shot at winning and then stopped fighting like he had it won after the first three rounds. I can't bet an idiot like this guy. He will prolly disrespect Chiesa and then get rolled up in round three and this lucky prick Chiesa wins again.

[Beelzebubzy]

I'm waiting to see where the line ends up before I take a position. Hoping the public is as stupid as I think it is.

played the -210. Its at -260. I dont know if it will go much higher than -300.

[mmaed]

3u on Lyoto, Mighty Mouse and Not Chael within the distance, at evens. All generous lines.

I wouldnt be suprised to see chael submit shogun later in the fight. Chaels groundgame isnt too bad in my eyes. He submitted brian stann pretty impressively. Shogun typically gasses and chael puts on a serious pace.

feel free to flame me. I know shogun has a black belt in jiu jitsu.

[mmaed]

kinda hard for me to go against Faber especially in non title fights...outside of his recent failed title bids hes been stellar...pretty much running thru some of the top BWs...dias was able to take yuri down in each round of their fight and work GNP and subs...faber has great wrestling and great subs so i imagine hed be able to do the same...

I would agree with that. Faber does have a tendency to get in a lot of close fights though. Yuri seems like he has some real finishing power. Ill have to go back and watch the hacran dias fight.

[mmaed]

Given Masvidal has won by KO/TKO in 10 of 24 victories, has fought some top level guys and Chiesa has some of the worst timing and overall stand up (In my opinion) I think Masvidal KOs him 30% of the time. I know he hasn't KOed anyone of note in a while, but I just REALLY think Chiesa is soft and will wilt. It's most likely more of a play that Chiesa will be lost in any kind of exchange and get tagged than my thoughts that Masvidal is a killer. I'll play +230. I believe that is being conservative too. His accuracy and Chiesa being a bearded Glass Joe is what pushes me on this one. Not too mention if Melendez did not exactly abuse Masvidal w/ takedowns enough to finish, I don't see Chiesa being able to conistantly take him down. Masvidal has a much better gas tank. I think Chiesa will gas and then get finished. I need to do a lot more research to nail it down, but this is just my stream of consciousness @ the moment. Going to have to look @ a lot of aspects and %s before I decide. You have thoughts on it?

Masvidal hasnt knocked someone out since 2009. Im not saying he cant do it but i dont think cheisa has even been knocked out in competition.

[mirinquads]

I wouldnt be suprised to see chael submit shogun later in the fight. Chaels groundgame isnt too bad in my eyes. He submitted brian stann pretty impressively. Shogun typically gasses and chael puts on a serious pace.

feel free to flame me. I know shogun has a black belt in jiu jitsu.

Okay, i will, u stoopid son

If there is one person Shogun is going to do everything in his power not to get finished by, it would be Chael. And there is a far cry from subbing Brian Stann to subbing a highlevel black belt like Rua. Chael getting subbed is way way more likely. It could ofcourse happen, but i doubt it.

Actually lets talk about this fight, am I the only who thinks Rua can knockout Shael? I know Rua gasses, but he's the best damn gassed fighter in the business, and Chael off the roids doesn't have amazing cardio him self. He could get reversed and pounded out on the ground. Not sure how great Rua's reversals are, but he tries for them a bit as far as I remember.. Gonna watch the Gustaffson fight now.

[MD]

Okay, i will, u stoopid son

If there is one person Shogun is going to do everything in his power not to get finished by, it would be Chael. And there is a far cry from subbing Brian Stann to subbing a highlevel black belt like Rua. Chael getting subbed is way way more likely. It could ofcourse happen, but i doubt it.

Actually lets talk about this fight, am I the only who thinks Rua can knockout Shael? I know Rua gasses, but he's the best damn gassed fighter in the business, and Chael off the roids doesn't have amazing cardio him self. He could get reversed and pounded out on the ground. Not sure how great Rua's reversals are, but he tries for them a bit as far as I remember.. Gonna watch the Gustaffson fight now.

Why even ask that? You may as well ask if you're the only one who thinks that GSP can decision Hendricks.

That said, this isn't really going to be a close fight, so I doubt Shogun's cardio will be a factor. If Chael can't take Shogun down for the first two rounds, he probably isn't going to stay concious long enough to win the final three because Shogun gassed. Someone's probably going to look like they got dominated by the time the fight is over.

[mirinquads]

Because the general opinion seems to be that Chael is going to grind Shogun down from what i have seen. People even say he's gonna sub him, I suppose. Why go the extra length to be sarcastic and annoying? Just seems redundant.