UFC on FX 8: Mighty Mouse vs Moraga (7-27-13)

[mmaed]

The striking gap between MacDonald and Ellenberger is huge. Rory is far more diverse and better in every single facet of striking. Literally all Ellenberger has going for him is his power. Yeah, he hits hard, but landing a flush bomb on a far better striker is his only way to win on the feet. I think his most realistic route to victory is to take Rory down as much as he can until Ellenberger gasses, and hope he did enough to win two rounds and that Rory can't finish in the third.

I get what your saying about him gassing. I see that. The other part, maybe yes, maybe no. His standup skill might not be all that but he has still knocked out 5 of 10 ufc opponents. That's pretty good. I think he caught Kampmann in their fight and hurt Diego pretty bad in that fight as well. He also dropped Condit IIRC. His technique may not look great, but he connects really often. Too often to discount it.

[Dwil125]

carmouche -700??

[Das Jax]

Curious that no one's commented on the obvious Mac/Melvin arbitrage opportunity... a guaranteed ten percent return is a pretty juicy opportunity for anyone with accounts at the relevant books.

[Imsmarterthanu]

macdonald, mitrione and moraga


macdonald by GNP, mitrione by better chin and moraga by hungrier more dangerous

[Vaughany]

Curious that no one's commented on the obvious Mac/Melvin arbitrage opportunity... a guaranteed ten percent return is a pretty juicy opportunity for anyone with accounts at the relevant books.

Majority of people are limited on sportsbook

[Das Jax]

Majority of people are limited on sportsbook

What's the limit?

[Vaughany]

dunno but mine is like £3

[Grabaka]

I get redirected to uwin when i go to sportsbook so i cant even access and before it was the global site (sportsbook.ag) which was slow as penetrate to post the new lines and you ended up losing the good ones all the time.

[Das Jax]

Man... that's so deviously brilliant. Stack the deck from the get go and if anyone ever beats the system, just exclude them from the game. Forget rakes, these books must be shoveling it in!

[Vaughany]

Me and Grab aren't in America so get directed to a different type of Sportsbook, like a mirror site where they are slower to release the lines and limits are a lot less. Might be different for those that signed up to sportsbook in USA years ago, but im sure most have been limited

[JustinOpinion]

Curious that no one's commented on the obvious Mac/Melvin arbitrage opportunity... a guaranteed ten percent return is a pretty juicy opportunity for anyone with accounts at the relevant books.

5%.

[MD]

macdonald, mitrione and moraga


macdonald by GNP, mitrione by better chin and moraga by hungrier more dangerous

Enjoy burning money. He has close to zero chance.

Curious that no one's commented on the obvious Mac/Melvin arbitrage opportunity... a guaranteed ten percent return is a pretty juicy opportunity for anyone with accounts at the relevant books.

Because most people are clever enough to not post arbs publicly.

[Vaughany]

How do you know Moraga is hungrier? It's not like Mighty Mouse is in a Josh Koscheck position where he's made all his money and been around for ever!

[Beelzebubzy]

Dude they are flyweights. They are never hungry
they eat one meal a week. 2000 calories per week
#minimanlet

[MD]

How do you know Moraga is hungrier? It's not like Mighty Mouse is in a Josh Koscheck position where he's made all his money and been around for ever!

Yeah, and after how many times he ate Cariasso's foot in his last fight, he's probably not even peckish.

[raag]

DJ is better everywhere and I can't see any ways he has to lose this fight, he should be at like -800 and is great value at -400 to -500

I like Rory but am a bit way of how hittable he is, he ate a few shots from BJ who has less reach than Ellenberger and obviously less power. I think he has vastly superior cardio and is way more technical with better fight IQ. Going to rewatch some Ellenberger fights.

Masvidal was ridic value at -140 and I still think he is good at -200.

[DSSCA]

Since I am super smart and made another thread for this event, I figured I would just post in here. Thanks MD for the heads up.

After watching Moraga's fight vs Cariaso... I'm really not seeing any area in which he will have an advantage over Johnson. Definitely not speed. He has not fought anywhere near the caliber of opponents that Johnson has faced. I know he will have a size advantage, but damn it is hard to hit that little tan bandit running around! Uncle Creepy could not finish him and I put his striking much higher than Moraga's. His game plan has to be to try to get it to the ground, but in a 5rd fight I do not see him being able to continually take down and hold down Johnson. I believe he will not be able to simply keep that pace up. I just don't see that happening. Crazy center of gravity, speed, footwork, and good TDD for Johnson. Also only a slight reach advantage to Moraga @ 1". Anyone else expect this line to move upward of -600? I just got sick of hearing about the Silva/Weidman fight. On to the next one, nah mean?

Also, early leans on Siyar, Masvidal and Guillard. However I need to watch more footage on "The Great."

As always, thoughts appreciated. Good or bad

[DSSCA]

Masvidal was ridic value at -140 and I still think he is good at -200.

I think Chiesa is a 1 dimensional fighter w/ no chin or ability to take a punch in anyway. Also, cardio is suspect. Masvidal can set a pace and use footwork to avoid Chiesa's takedowns. Masvidal by TKO/KO. Going to watch more tape, but leaning this hard!

[hougigo]

I like Mighty Mouse... I didn't think he'd win the belt... but he surprised me.
I though Dodson was going to win too because he kept knocking him down... but then I remembered this isn't boxing

[PunisherIND]

So far I have rory @ -190, meathead +100, and masvidal -150.

Considering a play on danzig.

[Beelzebubzy]

So far I have rory @ -190, meathead +100, and masvidal -150.

Considering a play on danzig.

Where's rory -190?

[DSSCA]

Considering a play on danzig.

What's your reasoning for possibly backing Danzig? I'm trying to put this matchup together but am awaiting my downloads to finish of his last few fights.

[Beelzebubzy]

What's your reasoning for possibly backing Danzig? I'm trying to put this matchup together but am awaiting my downloads to finish of his last few fights.

Guillard is slowing down
rejecte by teams and has no real camp if I recall correctly
plus he has been tapped and makes mistakes
Danzig has a great chin and could withstand the first round and leg kick his way to a decision

[The iron sheik]

So far I have rory @ -190, meathead +100, and masvidal -150.

Considering a play on danzig.

Took Schaub, good luck

[Sacrelicious]

Played rory -190 and mitrione -115, small autofade on carmouche at those ridiculous odds, mm is in a few parlays.

[DSSCA]

rejecte by teams and has no real camp if I recall correctly

He is no longer with the Blackzilians?

[raag]

Took Schaub, good luck

What is your rationale behind this? Do you feel Schaub will just look to minimise exchanging on the feet and look for TDs?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

What is your rationale behind this? Do you feel Schaub will just look to minimise exchanging on the feet and look for TDs?

That GOOF probably just flipped a coin. He never analyzes film, stats. or gives complete break downs of his picks. His picks are almost always auto fades.

[Vaughany]

Guillard is slowing down
rejecte by teams and has no real camp if I recall correctly
plus he has been tapped and makes mistakes
Danzig has a great chin and could withstand the first round and leg kick his way to a decision

Guillard is with Grudge now training with Whitman and has been living in the basement there for past four weeks, all he's done is train and sleep. I think this will look like the Dunham/Guillard fight

[Das Jax]

Guillard is slowing down
rejecte by teams and has no real camp if I recall correctly
plus he has been tapped and makes mistakes
Danzig has a great chin and could withstand the first round and leg kick his way to a decision

I'm in complete agreement with you, for the very reasons you mentioned. Frankly, given that he's gone 1-4 in his last five fights, if Danzig puts him away as I expect he will, I wouldn't be surprised if Guillard gets cut. I expect this line to change for sure.

[mirinquads]

1,5 U Guillard, might add more if the line hits plus monaaah.

He's too athletic, and seem to have gotten somewhat over his mental issues. Dont have time to write a huge thing, but Danzig looked bad against Gomi, and Guillard has got power. Was on Varner against Guillard, and dude made it close, although i thought he was a terrible matchup for him.

Im thinking of playing Schaub but will be watching the line.

[The iron sheik]

That GOOF probably just flipped a coin. He never analyzes film, stats. or gives complete break downs of his picks. His picks are almost always auto fades.

I wish I could write a paragraph how I have 91% of my BR on 3 parlays though. You know, that could be 91% of air you will never get back.

[The iron sheik]

What is your rationale behind this? Do you feel Schaub will just look to minimise exchanging on the feet and look for TDs?

I'd say the only thing that Mitrione is better at is eating leather? If even that?

[PunisherIND]

Where's rory -190?

5d a while ago

[PunisherIND]

What's your reasoning for possibly backing Danzig? I'm trying to put this matchup together but am awaiting my downloads to finish of his last few fights.

still debating it, but I think danzig is much smarter. He should be able to avoid guillard haymakers and get fight to the ground. From there he should be able to get a sub. I dont see guillard winning outside of an early ko.