UFC on FOX 7 (April 20, 2013)

[sideloaded]

Yeah Ive never seen anything like that except when she came out in the first round against honda.

for sure, and most opponents are forced or tricked into fighting ronda's pace. I would love for someone to just pull guard on this bitch and slowly take her life force away.

If you cant beat ronda's judo (mcmann can) look at hitmi akano's game plan against cyborg. That is how you fight ronda. 2 weight class difference in that fight and akano still almost hit a flying armbar and lasted 3 rnds.

[Grabaka]

not suprising zingano looked so bad if you factor in miesha trying to fight like ronda now. Miesha has never come out that hard in the first her whole career. She was going to gas 10 out of 10 times. I think zingano always had a fairly good chance of finishing her late in the fight.

Yep you right too amigo.

[MD]

I just read that. I do agree about your definition of value but only problem i see may be your cocky nature. My humble ass would tell me "look, maybe im wrong....i capped tha shit wrong" while your cocky nature ass would tell you "hmmm Elkins had 1% chance of winning and it was his best night ever, perfect fight, etc....yeah, he took that one in a million chance because i saw footage and my capping was just fine".
Think about it...... can there be a possibility that my argument holds a tiny bit of truth?

So you're saying my logic is 100% right, but I'm wrong because I'm cocky? Thanks bruhv.

[Grabaka]

No, Im saying that we agree on the definition of value.
Im saying also that when you are wrong about a fight your cocky nature does not let you change your initial assessment.
Am i making no sense?

[MD]

No, Im saying that we agree on the definition of value.
Im saying also that when you are wrong about a fight your cocky nature does not let you change your initial assessment.
Am i making no sense?

I'm not cocky about my fight analysis, I never have been. I'm arrogant in other areas, sure, but my money is not one of them. I put in a lot of time, as much as anyone on this board, and I work very hard. I almost never make plays unless I've put a lot of time in. What I'm saying is that your assessment of how the fight can go (and thus, the value of either side), should generally not change after a fight. I know how easy it is to lose a lot of money in gambling, which is surprisingly humbling.

[Educ8d Degener8]

How dare anyone suggest MD is arrogant or cocky. I think he's charming.

[Grabaka]

It should change if theres a good reason for it. And in MMA is pretty common IMO

[MD]

How dare anyone suggest MD is arrogant or cocky. I think he's charming.

Oh, I'm definitely cocky about some things, just not that. If I were cocky about gambling I'd have gone broke a long time ago.

Thanks though, sweetness. <3

[Grabaka]

How dare anyone suggest MD is arrogant or cocky. I think he's charming.

Yeah, i got a little carried away. Sorry!

[The iron sheik]

Not that my opinion holds water here (it feels like I'm softbanned), but I'm kind of curious how anyone in this day and age can actually find value in -900 plays? In that sense I partly agree with Grabaka here on his Mendes talk. I just find it kind of unrealistic to put someone under 10%, at least with the usual matchups.

[MD]

Not that my opinion holds water here (it feels like I'm softbanned), but I'm kind of curious how anyone in this day and age can actually find value in -900 plays? In that sense I partly agree with Grabaka here on his Mendes talk. I just find it kind of unrealistic to put someone under 10%, at least with the usual matchups.

Not at all, man. I appreciate everyone's input, even if I disagree with it. I'm sure most here are the same.

Anyway, to address your point, when I consider how many ways Elkins has to win this fight, I put him at 5% or less.

[hobbesITD]

MD, what percentage of Kelly do you bet?

[Grabaka]

Not that my opinion holds water here (it feels like I'm softbanned), but I'm kind of curious how anyone in this day and age can actually find value in -900 plays? In that sense I partly agree with Grabaka here on his Mendes talk. I just find it kind of unrealistic to put someone under 10%, at least with the usual matchups.

Mendes is gonna put a beatdown on Elkins and on the middle of the barrage he will penetrating hit the back of the head. Iron sheik and Grabaka drink a beer and celebrate in the caribbean for 50 bucks and some Elkins luck.

[The iron sheik]

Doesn't feel very comfortable for me to write in English but:

I personally just think that in single participant events (I guess tennis along with MMA would also be a good example), there are variables that to me, kind of eliminate such plays (or seeing value in them, that is). Undisclosed injuries, possible occuring injuries, bad weight cuts, etc. etc. In team plays there's more ...uh, "flexibility" in that sense. I'm not sure can this post be deciphered but it was a try

[MD]

MD, what percentage of Kelly do you bet?

Now, 1/4. I previously used 1/16 because I was an extreme nit, but I reduced my bankroll significantly a couple of months ago to account for some huge expenses, so I went to 1/4.

[hobbesITD]

Now, 1/4. I previously used 1/16 because I was an extreme nit, but I reduced my bankroll significantly a couple of months ago to account for some huge expenses, so I went to 1/4.

That might be part of the problem. Capping -900 at 1/16 is a lot different than -900 at 1/2 or full Kelly.

[MD]

That might be part of the problem. Capping -900 at 1/16 is a lot different than -900 at 1/2 or full Kelly.

It is. Most of the guys in this thread don't use Kelly, though, so I don't think they're addressing it from that perspective. If someone is a winning gambler with an edge and they see value in a -900 line, they should bet it whether they use 1/2 Kelly, full Kelly, 1/4 Kelly, or any other variant, though. Value is value.

[Grabaka]

It is. Most of the guys in this thread don't use Kelly, though, so I don't think they're addressing it from that perspective. If someone is a winning gambler with an edge and they see value in a -900 line, they should bet it whether they use 1/2 Kelly, full Kelly, 1/4 Kelly, or any other variant, though. Value is value.

I agree. But not with Mendes -900.
But whatever. (reads with a Nate Diaz voice)

[MD]

I agree. But not with Mendes -900.
But whatever. (reads with a Nate Diaz voice)

I got Mendez at -445 and -435. Lots of value there.

Even at -900, I think there's value.

[koch & balls]

FYI line on mendes has dropped to -600

[Nick Papageorgio]

http://www.mmasentinel.com/2013/04/41513-lorenz-larkin-interview/

[Sykes]

I took Brown +240 small. Huge fan of Mein, all the talent in the world, but that line is unbelievably silly. Wonderboy is as good a striker than Mein and Brown destroyed him, Mein's grappling should be better than Wonderboy's, although good enough to justify that price? I think not.

I think the main difference with Wonderboy/Mein is Mein is a very experienced MMA fighter where as Thompson was/is not. Mein looked awesome in his last fight, as much as I like Brown I see Mein winning that one. Remember Brown said he was KO'd for a minute too in that fight, I think Mein would finish in a spot like that.

[sideloaded]

I got Mendez at -445 and -435. Lots of value there.

Even at -900, I think there's value.

two wrestlers that will probably stand and trade with 4oz gloves. I see no value. Mendes is not Floyd Mayweather.

[Hannibal]

Anyone like tim means? I thnik means is pretty good, but was hoping for closer to +200

[Rubber Guard]

Anyone still not believe in DC? I have went back and forth with people of a different forum who seem to have not watched him, are big Mir nut huggers, or are UFC only monkeys.

He trashes Mir in my opinion. -420 is high. But there is no value in Mir. Mir sucks.

I generally don't like HW fights as far as betting. Anything can happen. And when 2 real HWs are in there and one is a huge favorite, I will lean to the dog naturally. But I think DC is possibly the best HW in the world right now. Him and Cain would be a hell of a fight, but that won't happen.

[sideloaded]

Anyone still not believe in DC? I have went back and forth with people of a different forum who seem to have not watched him, are big Mir nut huggers, or are UFC only monkeys.

He trashes Mir in my opinion. -420 is high. But there is no value in Mir. Mir sucks.

I generally don't like HW fights as far as betting. Anything can happen. And when 2 real HWs are in there and one is a huge favorite, I will lean to the dog naturally. But I think DC is possibly the best HW in the world right now. Him and Cain would be a hell of a fight, but that won't happen.

I love cormier bet him through out strikeforce and made a lot. HW makes me a lot of money. Bellator HW's probably are the most profitable fighters for me.

Ryan Martinez vs Wuiff at plus odds. No need to say more.

[Rubber Guard]

I love cormier bet him through out strikeforce and made a lot. HW makes me a lot of money. Bellator HW's probably are the most profitable fighters for me.

Ryan Martinez vs Wuiff at plus odds. No need to say more.

Yea I guess I agree in smaller shows you can find HW cans that are easy to bet against. But in the UFC it is hard to bank too much on a side, when guys with such skill at 250lbs are winging 4oz gloves. Seem like the "anything can happen" aspect can pop up more often than at other weights. Same with the 125lb class for me. So many exchanges that are hard to judge in real time. Just balls of energy going nuts, seems like decisions may be closer because of that. And judging is bad as is anyway.

[sideloaded]

Yea I guess I agree in smaller shows you can find HW cans that are easy to bet against. But in the UFC it is hard to bank too much on a side, when guys with such skill at 250lbs are winging 4oz gloves. Seem like the "anything can happen" aspect can pop up more often than at other weights. Same with the 125lb class for me. So many exchanges that are hard to judge in real time. Just balls of energy going nuts, seems like decisions may be closer because of that. And judging is bad as is anyway.

yeah I would hedge cormier with mir itd, zero chance he wins a decision

[Fragoel2]

Matt Brown went all the way up to +300, now he is at +280 on 5dimes, seems a lot for a dude that never goes down without a fight.

Need to watch some tape of Mein.

[PunisherIND]

Anyone like tim means? I thnik means is pretty good, but was hoping for closer to +200

I like means too. played it at +125. also Lorenz +165. nijem +225. brown +300.

[PunisherIND]

o/u's so far:

brown/mein U2.5 @ +150
nijem/jury O2.5 @ -190
masvidal/means O2.5 @ -145
njokuani/bowling U2.5 @ +175

[bjpenn85]

You banking on jury not having enough tdd to stop nijems takedown? I like jury to outpoint nijem on the feet.

[PunisherIND]

You banking on jury not having enough tdd to stop nijems takedown? I like jury to outpoint nijem on the feet.

I think nijem should be able to get a takedown here and there. on the feet, have to give jury the edge, but I don't think its a significant edge. any way I look at this, I think its going to be a close fight and should go to decision. this is a split decision type of fight imo, so I have to go with the dog.

[Vaughany]

I think nijem should be able to get a takedown here and there. on the feet, have to give jury the edge, but I don't think its a significant edge. any way I look at this, I think its going to be a close fight and should go to decision. this is a split decision type of fight imo, so I have to go with the dog.

cant disagree with this, as highly as I rate Jury, Im not sure Nijem deserves to be, or at least didnt expect Nijem to be this big a dog

[NunyaBidness]

As far as who's right or wrong -- we will know fight night.

At -900 it should be total dominance from minute 1 to the end.

That's completely incorrect.

Look at a matchup like Samman vs Casey. Casey was going to have an amazing 3 minutes most of the time here, Samman survives it almost every time and takes an easy victory from there. Samman should've been -900, and was never expected to dominate 15 minutes.