UFC on FOX 7 (April 20, 2013)

[goodfellas433]

Mendes -900 holy shit

[BIGDAY]

I am that confident that he wins to put up not ever posting here again.

-530 is a steal for Mendez.

[BIGDAY]

Probably closes around 1200.

[NunyaBidness]

Probably closes around 1200.

That was my prediction as well.

[goodfellas433]

I put Mendes in a parlay a few minutes ago at -500....that is probably one of the biggest jumps I've seen on 5 dimes... Only cyborg moved like that...unreal

[NunyaBidness]

I put Mendes in a parlay a few minutes ago at -500....that is probably one of the biggest jumps I've seen on 5 dimes... Only cyborg moved like that...unreal

I was shocked to see an opener of under -800. That line was always going to soar.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I approves of Nunya's new MS paint mark-up theme... Also, I likes Thomson at current odds, though I have trouble backing a Thomson who omits the silent "p" from their surname. That's sketchy as f*ck.... Never been a fan of Bowling, so am intrigued by an Njokuani play but would like to watch tape... Work is pwning me lately though, might just gut play that one. Without tape, I'd think Njokuani's technical striking outclasses Bowling's haymakers, in particular as the fight progresses and Bowling's bodybuilder Bieber muscles gas out... I don't particularly remember Bowling's wrestling or lack thereof... one of you smarties remind me. I think I'm remembering him grinding takedowns from cage and clinchwork not so much shooting for TDs???

[goodfellas433]

Guess I should have put down the grand for the "low risk" free two hundred with mendes. I just can't bring myself to do it anymore after my Mir vs carwin incident....scarred me for life

[NunyaBidness]

I don't particularly remember Bowling's wrestling or lack thereof... one of you smarties remind me. I think I'm remembering him grinding takedowns from cage and clinchwork not so much shooting for TDs???

Yeah, you're pretty right on here.

[MD]

Guess I should have put down the grand for the "low risk" free two hundred with mendes. I just can't bring myself to do it anymore after my Mir vs carwin incident....scarred me for life

You bet big on Mir in that fight?

[goodfellas433]

Admittedly I did not do my due diligence in that fight....he was a huge favorite and I went huge on him. Frank and I have a love hate relationship...I earned enough on Mir/Lesnar 1 to go on a great vacation. With that being said I have like 5 big parlays ending with Cormier, lol.

[Nick Papageorgio]

Bigday owns a boat. I respect bigday.

[MD]

Admittedly I did not do my due diligence in that fight....he was a huge favorite and I went huge on him. Frank and I have a love hate relationship...I earned enough on Mir/Lesnar 1 to go on a great vacation. With that being said I have like 5 big parlays ending with Cormier, lol.

He wasn't a huge favourite, was he? I seem to remember Carwin +130 or something.

[TheCalculator]

Please -- someone explain to me why Larkins is the underdog? He's a faster, more skilled version of Carmont. Carmont's skills have been getting better, but Larkins is on another level.

Only road to victory here is Carmont going for takedowns and getting them. An unlikely event.

[MD]

Please -- someone explain to me why Larkins is the underdog? He's a faster, more skilled version of Carmont. Carmont's skills have been getting better, but Larkins is on another level.

Only road to victory here is Carmont going for takedowns and getting them. An unlikely event.

The reason people are betting on Carmont is because he's likely to go for, and secure, in their mind, takedowns. Larkin's TDD isn't great.

[FightFightFight]

He wasn't a huge favourite, was he? I seem to remember Carwin +130 or something.

Was +150. My first bet. Saw an ad, and thought it was too good to pass up.

[TheCalculator]

The reason people are betting on Carmont is because he's likely to go for, and secure, in their mind, takedowns. Larkin's TDD isn't great.

Unless he secures a takedown and KEEPS him there while he grounds and pounds him -- I think the judges will favor Larkin's flashier striking over a couple of TDs.

[Sacrelicious]

I don't like this card for betting.... at all...

[Vaughany]

Please -- someone explain to me why Larkins is the underdog? He's a faster, more skilled version of Carmont. Carmont's skills have been getting better, but Larkins is on another level.

Only road to victory here is Carmont going for takedowns and getting them. An unlikely event.

remember he's got Zahabi and GSP in his corner...can be 90% confident that he'll look to take Larkin down and grind it out

[Vaughany]

I put Mendes in a parlay a few minutes ago at -500....that is probably one of the biggest jumps I've seen on 5 dimes... Only cyborg moved like that...unreal

there have been plenty like this. Joanne Calderwood went from like -400 to -900 the other day if I remember rightly.

[Vaughany]

I approves of Nunya's new MS paint mark-up theme... Also, I likes Thomson at current odds, though I have trouble backing a Thomson who omits the silent "p" from their surname. That's sketchy as f*ck.... Never been a fan of Bowling, so am intrigued by an Njokuani play but would like to watch tape... Work is pwning me lately though, might just gut play that one. Without tape, I'd think Njokuani's technical striking outclasses Bowling's haymakers, in particular as the fight progresses and Bowling's bodybuilder Bieber muscles gas out... I don't particularly remember Bowling's wrestling or lack thereof... one of you smarties remind me. I think I'm remembering him grinding takedowns from cage and clinchwork not so much shooting for TDs???

lol

[Sacrelicious]

there have been plenty like this. Joanne Calderwood went from like -400 to -900 the other day if I remember rightly.

Yeah but we are dealing with people from players talk that are used to betting MLB games.

Calderwood was a sharp bet at -420,

Mendes probably wins here, but no chance in hell I'll be taking that bet, unreal.

[Sacrelicious]

I cap Chad at -250 here.

[Vaughany]

I think Mendes is even sharper at -435 or whatever he was! Not surprising at all that Mendes is now -900. He has the advantage in every single area... biggest edge being his athleticism. Superior wrestler and grappler in general, superior kickboxing, more power, quicker, superior cardio, thicker neck, probably more girth. And regardless of his finish of Carvalho I dont see Elkins having the power to get a flash TKO/KO neither so the "puncher's chance" is not applicable IMO in this case. Faber won comfortably at wknd and Benavidez and Chad will follow suit this wknd....Alpha Male guys like these only lose in title fights!

Elkins is just mentally and physically unsuperior!

[NunyaBidness]

I cap Chad at -250 here.

How does Elkins win?

[Educ8d Degener8]

-900... Dayumn... Has a guy on a five fight win streak in the UFC ever been this large of a dog?

[goodfellas433]

I thought he was a favorite based on my loss, but you are probably right...maybe I just THOUGHT he should've been the fav. I just know I had my biggest loss ever misreading that fight.

[getlucky2win]

elkins has retard strength and is a tough sob -900 is redic imho

[Grabaka]

I aint throwing money on a -900 manlet. Like...ever!

[TheCalculator]

I cap Chad at -250 here.

Same range. Had him between -250 and -300.

Roads to victory:

- Highly unlikely to get finished.
- Could get a KO.
- Could grind out a victory.

[Vaughany]

Same range. Had him between -250 and -300.

Roads to victory:

- Highly unlikely to get finished.
- Could get a KO.
- Could grind out a victory.

double post

[Vaughany]

Same range. Had him between -250 and -300.

Roads to victory:

- Highly unlikely to get finished.
- Could get a KO.
- Could grind out a victory.

One of the nastiest guillotines in the game as well.

How do you think he loses the other 25-29% of the time out of interest?

[TheCalculator]

One of the nastiest guillotines in the game as well.

How do you think he loses the other 25-29% of the time out of interest?

My 3 points were actually for Elkins.

[TheCalculator]

http://www.mmamania.com/2013/4/16/4227584/ufc-fox-7-preview-35-facts-henderson-vs-melendez-lightweight-championship-san-jose-mma

[MD]

My 3 points were actually for Elkins.

If you actually believe that, you should reassess your handicapping ability.

All of you thinking Elkins is undervalued should throw him in a parlay with Chael Sonnen, as they're about equally outmatched.