The highly cerebral bets of Sacrelicious

[kripsak]

Your not worried about stipe's wrestling?

Couple other things to add, Roy is taking this fight on a 1 month notice & Roy's last fight was on 4/27/13. Roy's conditioning will be something to consider in this fight, if Roy can't knock out Stipe in the 1st round, and if Stipe starts to swing things his way in Round 2, in game betting on Stipe might be a good option.

It might be a wash with the above info though, since Stipe is a part time fighter:

http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2012/05/for-firefighter-and-emt-stipe-miocic-ufc-146-is-an-opportunity-for-fun

[Sacrelicious]

Your not worried about stipe's wrestling?

No, not in the slightest.

I am baffled people are actually betting on him, but the roy line is improving a lot.

[pouyasophy]

I'm baffled by the punk line, if they want a continuing program with jericho, maybe he loses.

I'm not going nuts on this line though.

What I am going nuts on is roy nelson. I suspect the props will actually make me ejaculate in my pants.

I suddenly don't feel confident in Roy Nelson

[Tommy Blingshyne]

reading alot of debate on this fight on a couple forums...just bet the big country KO prop and stipe 3 round dec. prop...gotta be one or the other right?

[MD]

No, not in the slightest.

I am baffled people are actually betting on him, but the roy line is improving a lot.

wat

You can't seriously think that if Stipe chooses to exclusively try and take him down, that Nelson has the TDD to stop a guy of Stipe's size and strength for the entire fight?

I'm not sure if Stipe is a very good play considering his inconsistency and questionable fight IQ, but I'm very sure that Nelson isn't a good play. He can get the KO, sure, but the fact of the matter is that if Stipe game-plans Roy Nelson and doesn't deviate from it for the entire fight, Roy Nelson almost can't win. Seriously, if I thought Stipe was going to use a game-plan and stick to it for the duration of the fight, I'd 'cap Stipe at -1100. He's too lengthy, too fast, too strong and too good a boxer (when he tries to be, at least). If he circled to Nelson's left for the duration of the fight, stayed at the end of his jab and shot for double-legs whenever the opening presented itself, Nelson would have no clear route to victory, and taking a guy in the -250 range when he can be so easily dominated is a bad wager, in my opinion.

To each their own, though. Just my view. Hope we're on the same side for the rest of the card bruhv.

[Dwil125]

reading alot of debate on this fight on a couple forums...just bet the big country KO prop and stipe 3 round dec. prop...gotta be one or the other right?

That's what I was thinking... Also Fire fighters have plenty of time to train btw for whoever brought that up. He doesn't have to worry about a weight cut either.

[Beelzebubzy]

Did Nelson have trouble with cro cop in the clinch?

[MD]

Did Nelson have trouble with cro cop in the clinch?

He had trouble with Cro Cop in everything. He spent most of the fight trying to take Cro Cop down. A rarity for Nelson.

[Sacrelicious]

Playing igor and roland.

[Beelzebubzy]

He had trouble with Cro Cop in everything. He spent most of the fight trying to take Cro Cop down. A rarity for Nelson.

Yeah that's what I recalled too.

[Sacrelicious]

Been so busy with work I hardly have time to post here anymore, anywho, stuff for this weekend:

Shields/Woodley goes distance -175
Nelson/Davis parlay
Nelson KO -160
Davis ITD -140
Jordan sub +665
Davis sub +237

Missed the openers on those though, ah well.

Also happened to be wide awake at 5 am this morning when the WWE lines were being released, I played CM punk at -400 and also took the following:

Shield -280
Axel -350
Ambrose -400
AJ -190
Ziggler -400

Also, some parlays as the lines got more steep:

Axel/Ambrose/Shield/AJ
Shield/Ambrose
Axel/Shield/Ambrose
Ambrose/Ziggler/Nelson

Maxi bet each several times as the lines moved, especially Ambrose. Hit the Shield about a half dozen times, Ambrose about 10, and AJ and Axel 3 times each. Ziggler was the final line to open this morning, and by that time most of my money on 5d was already tied up, but I did get a maxi bet on him. All of them are in the -4000 to -6000 range at the moment, the Ziggler line has flipped though, I took a bet on him at +750 and shockingly its now up to +1250. I can not imagine them taking the belt off of him, maybe some screwey DQ finish or something?

Good luck everyone.

[Vaughany]

GL compadre

[MD]

wat

You can't seriously think that if Stipe chooses to exclusively try and take him down, that Nelson has the TDD to stop a guy of Stipe's size and strength for the entire fight?

I'm not sure if Stipe is a very good play considering his inconsistency and questionable fight IQ, but I'm very sure that Nelson isn't a good play. He can get the KO, sure, but the fact of the matter is that if Stipe game-plans Roy Nelson and doesn't deviate from it for the entire fight, Roy Nelson almost can't win. Seriously, if I thought Stipe was going to use a game-plan and stick to it for the duration of the fight, I'd 'cap Stipe at -1100. He's too lengthy, too fast, too strong and too good a boxer (when he tries to be, at least). If he circled to Nelson's left for the duration of the fight, stayed at the end of his jab and shot for double-legs whenever the opening presented itself, Nelson would have no clear route to victory, and taking a guy in the -250 range when he can be so easily dominated is a bad wager, in my opinion.

To each their own, though. Just my view. Hope we're on the same side for the rest of the card bruhv.

And that's exactly what happened.

Tough luck on Alexis ITD by the way, Sac. I think that cashes very often. The fight played out in a weird way.

[Vaughany]

Dunno what the squarest play was tonight...Nelson, Jabouin or Maguire!

[Sacrelicious]

Welll there's still wrestling tomorrow. Nelson was a square bet, but I agree md, david itd was not, it came very close on more then one occasion.

[Crassus]

And that's exactly what happened.

Tough luck on Alexis ITD by the way, Sac. I think that cashes very often. The fight played out in a weird way.

In fairness Roy shucked his TD's like they were nothing. I honestly don't remember the fight much (sucked) but I don't recall Stipe getting a takedown at all. His boxing looked real solid but his wrestling didn't seem incredibly impressive. Good call on getting the underdog, I'm impressed, I didn't think Miocic had it in him and was surprised at all the love he was getting.

Sac was right in not being concerned about the wrestling though. If it's any consolation.

[MD]

In fairness Roy shucked his TD's like they were nothing. I honestly don't remember the fight much (sucked) but I don't recall Stipe getting a takedown at all. His boxing looked real solid but his wrestling didn't seem incredibly impressive. Good call on getting the underdog, I'm impressed, I didn't think Miocic had it in him and was surprised at all the love he was getting.

Sac was right in not being concerned about the wrestling though. If it's any consolation.

Miocic took him down once in the third round. You're misinterpreting what happened though. Saying Miocic couldn't take down Nelson is like saying that Cain couldn't take down Bigfoot; neither really put much effort into getting it to the floor. For the most part, Stipe would shoot in for a single, then disengage and pummel Roy in the face. He was faking takedowns and using them to set up opportunities on the feet, and the one time he did get him down, he let Roy up immediately. That fight showed nothing about Nelson's grappling defence, it just showed Stipe's aversion to going to the floor, and his ability to mix his grappling into his striking. Another recent example is the Nogueira/Evans fight; obviously Evans looked awful, but he barely even tried to take Nogueira down, and almost exclusively used his takedowns to set up strikes. It's lazy to say that Nelson didn't have to worry about Stipe's wrestling.

[Sacrelicious]

Won every wrestling play except Dolph Ziggler, that was a hell of a swerve.

[Vaughany]

Miocic took him down once in the third round. You're misinterpreting what happened though. Saying Miocic couldn't take down Nelson is like saying that Cain couldn't take down Bigfoot; neither really put much effort into getting it to the floor. For the most part, Stipe would shoot in for a single, then disengage and pummel Roy in the face. He was faking takedowns and using them to set up opportunities on the feet, and the one time he did get him down, he let Roy up immediately. That fight showed nothing about Nelson's grappling defence, it just showed Stipe's aversion to going to the floor, and his ability to mix his grappling into his striking. Another recent example is the Nogueira/Evans fight; obviously Evans looked awful, but he barely even tried to take Nogueira down, and almost exclusively used his takedowns to set up strikes. It's lazy to say that Nelson didn't have to worry about Stipe's wrestling.

yeah both seemed to be faking takedowns and then coming up with punches. Nelson tried it at least twice as well

[MD]

yeah both seemed to be faking takedowns and then coming up with punches. Nelson tried it at least twice as well

Yeah I remember that, I laughed really hard because he was so gassed that it took him three seconds just to change levels. Would have been better off trying a spinning back fist or something.

[Sacrelicious]

You degens still eating streak dinners? I got some recipes to share.

Also, nunya, I know you dig the cuisine, got a real good summer halibut recipe that your fam will love, I'm on a train now and about to hit tunnels, but will post after work tomorrow.

[Sacrelicious]

Also working on something with Mahi Mahi, I'm going to try run it tomorrow and see how the response is.

[Sacrelicious]

Barnett -230?!

Thanks, nick!!!

[Dwil125]

What do you cap him at?

[DSSCA]

Barnett -230?!

Thanks, nick!!!

I see it at 5dimes @ -280. It opened that fuking low?? I'm about to pull my 401k for this one!

[Sacrelicious]

What do you cap him at?

Honestly, -450

[Dwil125]

about to throw a little bit on josh Barnett then...

[Dwil125]

5D has the wrong location listed lol

[Sacrelicious]

Played kennedy -120 and grant +165.

Also played a machida aldo and jones parlay.

[Dwil125]

lol im not sure about grant, but I added Barnett at -221. How do you see Barnett winning? Decision?

[Sykes]

Decision - sloppy fight - when have you seen Frank Mir took down and pounded on? bar Lesner.

[raag]

Frank Mir got pounded out by a lot of guys from the top... Pe De Pano, Ian Freeman, Brandon Vera... Carwin in the clinch then from top. Barnett is far tougher than Mir, with better standup, wrestling, and cardio and a comparable ground game.

[Dwil125]

Never, he just gets blasted on the feet. So Barnett's striking/clinch is going to be more then good enough to beat Frank Murr? Mir probably wont be able to get Barnett down either?

[Dwil125]

I just don't know much about Barnett and usually don't bet heavyweight fights unless there just mismatches.

[MD]

I just don't know much about Barnett and usually don't bet heavyweight fights unless there just mismatches.

If you don't know much about Barnett, you probably shouldn't pay -230 on a heavyweight fight.

That said, I do think Barnett should win pretty easily here. Watch some of his recent fights and see what you think.