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Vaughany...good point...I edited the "golden days" paragraph to soften the hyperbole
you're right that Bader did strengthen...but he still went off as a dog...when he should have been a moderate fave all along...same thing with Texeira...should have been a considerably bigger fave...but "gift horses" can and will persist in an immature market...especially if there's a big name the casual fans can latch onto...Rampage has been consistently over-valued last several fights...and past-his-prime increasingly-one-dimensional Hendo is the new Rampage in this regard...Comment -
can you elaborate on this...sounds like a very useful resource
I'm RELATIVELY new to the MMA sub-forum, and have never heard of this
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i've always found it easy to break the rule: "it's better to remain silent and be thought a fool...than open your mouth and remove all doubt"Comment -
its real easy to say all of this after the fights. You are grossly simplifying many things. What about Rampage vs Machida? Was Rampage overvalued.
The public doesn't even bet mma for the most part. Idk you think professionals use 5dimes. They will severely limit you or ban.Comment -
*Has probably made no real money betting MMA.
the MMA market is not even close to razor sharp yet...so you can't be afraid to just take the damn "gift horse" prices when it's there...
look at Burkman +230 last night and Shamalev over +200 a few weeks ago...and both Bader and Texeira lines were strongly undervalued in Rampage's last two fights, as was Machida against Hendo
to a much larger extent than major team sports...the MMA market is casual-fan driven, so "crowd psychology" perception can take prices further "off centre" and keep them there longer, cuz there's much less big, syndicated sharp money acting as a counter-weight
as an example...even after Rampage broke the scale at weigh-in, his price didn't soften...so the bargain on Bader persisted...might have looked like a trap...but it wasn't...in an immature market like MMA, imperfections can and do exist, persist, and even intensify...that is great for us
if you are reasonably objective (aka. sharp) it's great that the MMA market is far from efficient...don't expect it to be, for quite a while yet...these are STILL the golden days of MMA betting (but, regrettably, becoming decreasingly so as all markets that grow with time, sharpen with time...but relative to major team sports...I stand by that statement)...without big organized sharp pools of cash to whittle down any shifts in value before you have a chance to even log into your book (again this is becoming decreasingly true with time...but relative to big team-sport markets...this is STILL the happy hunting ground for value)
for a major team-sport...if it looks to good to be true...it probably is...the market has lots of opportunistic sharp-money actively scavenging edges constantly...so the expression "the market has already discounted that" generally holds
but this is MMA...and VERY often the market price is surprisingly off-centre...presenting large gifts on one side
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So if it looks like dozens and dozens of points of value may be there on DeFries...they very well may be...cuz MMA--bless it's soul--is FAR from razor-sharp...
(and fading the Blackzillians--with the obvious exception of Rumble--is a nice additional +EV touch)Comment -
it was a joke. Because ghost_kid still reads every god damn thread and outed himself long ago as a joey odessa apologist. He spends 24/7 on twitter sucking up to boxing/mma people trying to feel important and gets severely butt hurt if you say anything negative about lines makers. I ran him off the forum because he was suffering from Stockholm syndrome and needed a cold dose of reality of who we are and what we are trying to accomplish here.Comment -
i'm talking in particular of his last few fights (ever SINCE=AFTER his fight with Jones), where he's clearly been payday-driven...actively working the "revitalized Rampage" marketing angle...and people lap it up cuz they want to think it's true...like he's got Ricky Hatton's boxing coach...BFD, like it's going to rewire his one-dimensional attack...you had to know, that despite all the "spin" he just didn't have a varied-enough skill-set to hang with Texeira...so despite Tex being a fave he was still a great value (just as Machida was against Hendo)
Can certainly argue about specific examples chosen to make the general point (and the role that "hindshight" plays whenever specific examples are mentioned...), BUT much harder to refute my...
main point=bargains are not unlikely to exist, persist, and even intensify in MMA...cuz big,organized, sharp funds haven't kicked in yet to anywhere near the extent as NBA (same used to be true of WNBA, but value "sore thumbs" won't get near so swollen, nor last near as long as before=the market's getting more mature=harder to beat...)Comment -
Yeah I'm still quite new to wagering, however I've noticed that combat sports seem to be the only sports market where a line will literally move 200+ cents on a regular basis, see Tyrone Spong this weekend for a perfect example.
The key is trying to figure out a way to scrape line data to predict these movements, good things never come to those who are lazy.Comment -
I was not around 2-4 years ago, so I likely missed out on all the paydays, but there is nothing about this market that really screams "efficiency" to me...
Hell... just look at the Bellator lines for the last several shows. Also, the lines for the Invicta seem to be outstandingly bad.Comment -
You're right...everything I said about MMA markets being nicely inefficient seems to be especially true in non-UFC cards. For example, last night was my first WSOF card and that Burkman line was especially generous for what had all the makings on paper for a competitive bout...and I can't for the life of me figure out how Arlovski managed to both open and close as the favorite.)
From my new favorite company, Bellator comes one of the best examples of an obviously inefficient line =Shamalaev at more than +200 (i KNOW this one brings bak fond memories cuz it allowed for a double-recouping of all you'd lost on KingMo's Overeem homage)...and the following week they had Rickles going off at damn-near -200 against a guy he'd razor-thin split-decisioned just a short time previous to that. (Note hindsight has nothing to do with this example, because Rickles won a clear-cut UD...but still the line was way off, and betting on his opponent had tons of value.)
Moral of the story for me is that if it looks too good to be true in MMA...it very well might be just as good as it appears. It IS, admittedly getting harder to find obvious "sore thumb" lines in the UFC...but surprisingly not-so-difficult to find them outside of the big show.
To this end, Sac, I'd appreciate any insights (but not TOO cerebral!!!) you might have on Invicta.Comment -
It's as if people read a few Ganchrow posts and started copy/pasting the terms he uses without understanding them. I'm waiting for someone to say "man, Kalikas is really Bill the Cop teasing us with all this value. I hope he keeps teasing my wong."Comment -
Mousasi is a mixed martial artist.Comment -
jesus christ another ghost? f-ck me this forum is terribleComment -
fitguy, glover was not a lock against rampage. The fight was mainly on the feet for 3 rounds and both guys weighed over 220 lbs with 4 oz gloves on and are professional fighters. Nothing about that fight was a lock.
spend a few days in a boxing gym and watch how often the big guys get dropped wearing sparring equipment.Comment -
Never said it was a lock...merely said Rampage was over-valued & Texeira was undervalued...ie. Texeira's probability of winning was greater than that implied by the odds...objective analysis, which includes assigning appropriate (read: micro-)weights to the "marketing spin" crap coming from the Rampage camp about how "motivated" and "revitalized" he was...so you'd forget how 1-dimensional and TDDefenseless he'd become...the whole "working with Hatton's boxing coach" thing being the silliest...as if Rampage's boxing needed improvement--all that was a distraction to seeing the problem with Rampage=past his prime 1-trick-pony with no TDD...
could Rampage win against Texeira...damn right he could (and you know it'd almost have to be by KO)..but it was less likely than even his moderate-dog odds would suggest...do you really think he'd improved so much in the months after Bader (i think not)...alternatively, is there anything to suggest Texeira would present an inferior opponent to him than Bader (again, I think not)...odds reflected this, yes (obviously, cuz he went from a fave against Bader to a dog against Tex)...but in my esteem the line adjusted not nearly enough...cuz people were
over-estimating all the marketing-spin about Rampage's rejuvenated motivation (including how it was the last--or next to last, i can't remember--fight of his UFC contract, and how he'd want to "make a statement" blablabla)
My point is that if MMA were as mature a betting market as, say,MLB...the cooler heads would shave off the value-foam everytime their "bullshit meter" went off about how Rampage is training "harder than ever" etc (equivalent to "there's a new attitude in the RedSox dugout"--noone would double up their position on the next game because of that...but MMA bettors are prone to do just that sort of thing--I know cuz I've done it countless times myself, overplaying the "intangibles" for lack of much else to REALLY go on...apart from MMA math, Sherdog records, and video-watching)...this leads to those huge nervous-nelly swings that Sac refers to that you won't see even in boxing or tennis
in an immature market, P.T. Barnum-hype creates value as the public over-weights it...the sharps exploit it by recognizing the hyperbole
in mature markets, everyone's bullshit-meter is better calibrated and value-bubbles that form are smaller and pop quicker
MMA markets are STILL MUCH thinner, jumpier, and bubble-prone than MLB...in other words much less efficient...(this gap in market efficiency will of course decrease with time...but it will persist for a long time to come...and as it wanes, other even-more-marginal markets will take it's place...UFC now harder to exploit, but other MMA-outfits get bet-accessible, sporting the same sorts of value-bubble-formation tendencies as the UFC did a few years ago)
BTW, saying a betting market is inefficent and prone to bubble-formation and -longevity is a GREATthing for bettors...double-digit bubbles are common and persist...in MLB if you think you see a single-digit value-bulge, you better jump on it quick
APOLOGIES TO 'MD': I checked the SBR store. They don't carry Visine...otherwise I'd have sent the points for a bottle, to compensate you for damages incurred by trying to read the above.
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dude, way too much text. Short answer smart money moves lines. Anyone believing ufc marketing at this point is betting sherdog points or 5 bucks.
The casual bettor no longer exists, and rarely impacts line movement except in rare circumstances right before the fight starts. Not one casual is betting into the market 2 months ahead of time.Comment -
The ironic part is that I read the first paragraph, sighed, and was scrolling down to read my old pal 'Loader's post, when I saw your mention at the end. Anyway, if you think Rampage has no TDD, you must not have been following his career for very long. He had no TDD in the Bader fight due to injury and no TDD in the Texeira fight due to what I can only describe as an off night or an off camp. Rampage stuffed Jon Jones repeatedly. Glover doesn't have magic takedowns, he got takedowns because Rampage somehow managed to regress five years in the wrestling department.Never said it was a lock...merely said Rampage was over-valued & Texeira was undervalued...ie. Texeira's probability of winning was greater than that implied by the odds...objective analysis, which includes assigning appropriate (read: micro-)weights to the "marketing spin" crap coming from the Rampage camp about how "motivated" and "revitalized" he was...so you'd forget how 1-dimensional and TDDefenseless he'd become...the whole "working with Hatton's boxing coach" thing being the silliest...as if Rampage's boxing needed improvement--all that was a distraction to seeing the problem with Rampage=past his prime 1-trick-pony with no TDD...
could Rampage win against Texeira...damn right he could (and you know it'd almost have to be by KO)..but it was less likely than even his moderate-dog odds would suggest...do you really think he'd improved so much in the months after Bader (i think not)...alternatively, is there anything to suggest Texeira would present an inferior opponent to him than Bader (again, I think not)...odds reflected this, yes (obviously, cuz he went from a fave against Bader to a dog against Tex)...but in my esteem the line adjusted not nearly enough...cuz people were
over-estimating all the marketing-spin about Rampage's rejuvenated motivation (including how it was the last--or next to last, i can't remember--fight of his UFC contract, and how he'd want to "make a statement" blablabla)
My point is that if MMA were as mature a betting market as, say,MLB...the cooler heads would shave off the value-foam everytime their "bullshit meter" went off about how Rampage is training "harder than ever" etc (equivalent to "there's a new attitude in the RedSox dugout"--noone would double up their position on the next game because of that...but MMA bettors are prone to do just that sort of thing--I know cuz I've done it countless times myself, overplaying the "intangibles" for lack of much else to REALLY go on...apart from MMA math, Sherdog records, and video-watching)...this leads to those huge nervous-nelly swings that Sac refers to that you won't see even in boxing or tennis
in an immature market, P.T. Barnum-hype creates value as the public over-weights it...the sharps exploit it by recognizing the hyperbole
in mature markets, everyone's bullshit-meter is better calibrated and value-bubbles that form are smaller and pop quicker
MMA markets are STILL MUCH thinner, jumpier, and bubble-prone than MLB...in other words much less efficient...(this gap in market efficiency will of course decrease with time...but it will persist for a long time to come...and as it wanes, other even-more-marginal markets will take it's place...UFC now harder to exploit, but other MMA-outfits get bet-accessible, sporting the same sorts of value-bubble-formation tendencies as the UFC did a few years ago)
BTW, saying a betting market is inefficent and prone to bubble-formation and -longevity is a GREATthing for bettors...double-digit bubbles are common and persist...in MLB if you think you see a single-digit value-bulge, you better jump on it quick
APOLOGIES TO 'MD': I checked the SBR store. They don't carry Visine...otherwise I'd have sent the points for a bottle, to compensate you for damages incurred by trying to read the above.
What percentage of the time do you think Rampage wins that fight?Comment -
I will admit some big time square money dropped A. Silva's line right before the belfort fight. I was floored.Comment -
fight is in Monaco with no real boxing commission so high probability the whole thing is fixed.Comment -
I did not,
I capped him around -550. I do not think he will ever be a serious contender in the division, there are some guys that can pose SERIOUS problems to him, Jones, Gus, Davis, and god forbid Machida. I don't see him ever being a serious title contender, that being said, the rest of the "top 10" or anyone approaching it is a ridiculously favorable style matchup for him.Comment -
This might be the greatest series of things posted within a minute of each other in SBR history.
EDIT: After reading this a couple of more times, it's actually baffling how wrong such a short post can be. It has to be a troll. I can count like four things that are wrong with it and it's less than a paragraph.Comment -
Dude, don't give a penetrate what I think, seriously. Post as much rambling bullshit as you feel comfortable with. If I don't like it, I won't read it. It's an internet forum, you should post whatever you want. No one should tell you what you can and can't post.
That was a serious question though. I was wondering how often you think Rampage wins, percentage-wise.Comment
