UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Mousasi...

fitguy67 · 03-26-13, 03:36 AM

I agree with Crippler, Gabe & Sac...Rampage had only a FORMER-elite CURRENTLY-poorly-motivated payday-whore of a "puncher's chance"...he'd only win in a tiny handful of the hundred-hypothetical-universes (whether that be 5 or 10 makes an APPARENTLY large difference between +2000ish and +1000ish...but in fact it was a such a tiny enough % to mean that there was a huge value bulge on Tex)

Gabe had it right...Rampage only wins in those few simulations where Tex happens to walk into one of his hopeful haymakers
___________
to add further context, I had Hendo as having a much better puncher's chance to beat Machida, and Wanderlai as well to beat Stann
...these were real live dogs...Rampage just SEEMED like one...and therein lay the "value-bubble that wouldn't pop" or the "gift horse" price that people mistook as a "trap" and avoided

MD · 03-26-13, 04:10 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

I agree with Crippler, Gabe & Sac...Rampage had only a FORMER-elite CURRENTLY-poorly-motivated payday-whore of a "puncher's chance"...he'd only win in a tiny handful of the hundred-hypothetical-universes (whether that be 5 or 10 makes an APPARENTLY large difference between +2000ish and +1000ish...but in fact it was a such a tiny enough % to mean that there was a huge value bulge on Tex)

Gabe had it right...Rampage only wins in those few simulations where Tex happens to walk into one of his hopeful haymakers
___________
to add further context, I had Hendo as having a much better puncher's chance to beat Machida, and Wanderlai as well to beat Stann
...these were real live dogs...Rampage just SEEMED like one...and therein lay the "value-bubble that wouldn't pop" or the "gift horse" price that people mistook as a "trap" and avoided

Disagree strongly. I think Hendo KO'd Machida about 1% or 2% of the time, maybe less, as much flack as I'll get for this comment. I had him winning a questionable decision much more often, maybe 10%, which is why I was large on Machida at those odds.

I still think Texeira loses a lot more than you seem to think.

Rubber Guard · 03-26-13, 08:34 AM

Machida is more elusive than Tex...obviously.

But at least Hendo has proven he can still KO fools. Fools such as Fedor, Feijao, and hurt Shogun like no other. Rampage's last 3 KOs were Wandy, Chuck, and Marvin Eastman. Old washed up fighters. THe most recent being 2008.

Rampage has been a decision machine. Slow. Unmotivated. 1 foot out the door.

fitguy67 · 03-26-13, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by MD

Disagree strongly. I think Hendo KO'd Machida about 1% or 2% of the time, maybe less, as much flack as I'll get for this comment. I had him winning a questionable decision much more often, maybe 10%, which is why I was large on Machida at those odds.

I still think Texeira loses a lot more than you seem to think.

I see your point. Remove the word "puncher's" from that fourth-from-the-bottom...and we're golden.

fitguy67 · 03-26-13, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

...Smart money moves lines. Anyone believing ufc marketing at this point is betting sherdog points or 5 bucks.

The casual bettor no longer exists, and rarely impacts line movement except in rare circumstances right before the fight starts. Not one casual is betting into the market...(much) ahead of time.

getlucky2win · 03-26-13, 05:49 PM

its real easy 2 say the line was off after the fight is over. do u think the hendo vs evans line is correct?

DeFactoCrippler · 03-26-13, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

fight is in Monaco with no real boxing commission so high probability the whole thing is fixed.

Youre probably right but what does it matter. The jap is going to get starched, its just a matter of when.

This will be the greatest white pride moment since edward norton dunked on that niqqa in american history x.

Vaughany · 03-26-13, 05:51 PM

haha

fitguy67 · 03-27-13, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by getlucky2win

its real easy 2 say the line was off after the fight is over. do u think the hendo vs evans line is correct?

the "formerly-brilliant-but-now-fading star" and/or the "more-sizzle-than-steak" (best pure example of this is Sonnen) should always be investigated as a source of price-inflation...Rampage-ever-since-Jones (the last time he actually took the fighting aspect of his job more seriously than the fight-marketing) has been a solid member of BOTH camps...Wanderlai and Hendo & the Nogs and Evans are all in the first-category (they're still fighters...haven't turned to primarily payday-whores like Rampage and Sonnen)

I get more interested when one of these "over-valued" categories takes on a full-skillset still-hungry guy, the less heralded the better (eg. 'Page v. Bader, 'Page v. Tex, Arlovski v. Rumble from a few days ago...for a a good "ancient" example consider Penn v. Edgar...if u got nailed on the 1st one, you should see the "value-handwriting on the wall" for the rematch...hell, even if Penn WON the close decision in part-1...you still gotta see the value on Edgar in the rematch )...

Anyhow, Hendo v. Evans doesn't strike me as a big value-bubble producer cuz u have two category-1=past-primers going at it...in effect
two yangs...with no yin to get over-valued against...if either one of them went up against a full-skillset up-and-comer, the "valuometer" much more likely to move northward

_________

Hendo-Evans could be a snoozefest or a FOTN (i lean toward the former)...but fight doesn't trigger my LLTBWO ("line likely to be way off") spidey-sense

gabe · 03-27-13, 02:51 PM

Sometimes, some really dumb conversations/arguments go on here.

I'm happy when I find myself on the outside of them.

NUNYA WHERE YOU AT HOMIE

DON'T BE FRIGHTENED

Thor4140 · 03-27-13, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

luca fury called me a clown for capping anderson silva -5000 against bonnar.

He should have. That line should have been -10000

NunyaBidness · 03-29-13, 01:32 PM

McGregor opens -140
Amagov -105

NunyaBidness · 03-29-13, 01:33 PM

Grabaka · 03-29-13, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

McGregor opens -140
Amagov -105

Shit missed both

NunyaBidness · 03-29-13, 01:43 PM

Hate when they do this, was just sitting down to watch tape, and Nick decided to go to work early this week.

sideloaded · 03-29-13, 01:44 PM

some shit ass lines really.

Robbie Peralta

-350

tha f-ck?

NunyaBidness · 03-29-13, 01:45 PM

Go get that free Corassani money.

sideloaded · 03-29-13, 01:45 PM

taking spang
Amagov is another overhyped f-aggot Im sure gabe is going to maxipad him

sideloaded · 03-29-13, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Go get that free Corassani money.

corassani sucks, that fight is a pass. Nice work Nick.

NunyaBidness · 03-29-13, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by gabe

NUNYA WHERE YOU AT HOMIE

DON'T BE FRIGHTENED

Missed all the funny stuff in the first few pages of this thread.

Don't like to read the individual card threads until I've capped the fights myself. Don't want to let your guys brainworms into my head.

The MMA market is significantly more efficient than it was even a year ago. I would suspect because a lot of guys going around talking about how easy it is to beat. If the know-nothings can beat it, the sharps are going to come in and scoop that money up eventually.

sideloaded · 03-29-13, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Missed all the funny stuff in the first few pages of this thread.

Don't like to read the individual card threads until I've capped the fights myself. Don't want to let your guys brainworms into my head.

The MMA market is significantly more efficient than it was even a year ago. I would suspect because a lot of guys going around talking about how easy it is to beat. If the know-nothings can beat it, the sharps are going to come in and scoop that money up eventually.

pretty f-cking stupid to release my killer zigano play before the line is even out amirite?

NunyaBidness · 03-29-13, 02:02 PM

As long as you don't spread the Not Rousey in rd 1 +500 against Zigano before that comes out.

Sacrelicious · 03-29-13, 02:52 PM

OOF, missed both, FFS...

Hopefully some money comes in on the other side.

bjpenn85 · 03-29-13, 03:15 PM

really regretting passing peralta @ 1.60 couple of weeks ago.

sideloaded · 03-29-13, 03:34 PM

am I only one on dis here spang train? +125 now. Im riding all the way.

NunyaBidness · 03-29-13, 03:45 PM

Why not wait for the best line? Should close around Amagov -200.

sideloaded · 03-29-13, 03:52 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Why not wait for the best line? Should close around Amagov -200.

i got spang capped at -150 so im just going to ride her out

im doing the anti-gunshard Adlan has the better highlight reel so im fading him

John Bugara · 03-29-13, 04:09 PM

I'm thinking of going heavy on brimage, I know nothing about the guy he's fighting other than he has a bunch of impressive wins over a bunch of irish people I've never heard of. Brimage looked great against hettes who was a hyped prospect with good wrestling.

Edit: Just watched his highlights and the guy has the type of reflexes,speed, and power that could give anyone problems. He definitely isn't a nub on the ground but will he be prepared for the well rounded grappling imposed by most of today's american fighters? I'm just skeptical that a guy who has barely fought outside of Ireland shouldn't be a dog.

sideloaded · 03-29-13, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by John Bugara

I'm thinking of going heavy on brimage, I know nothing about the guy he's fighting other than he has a bunch of impressive wins over a bunch of irish people I've never heard of. Brimage looked great against hettes who was a hyped prospect with good wrestling.

John, I like this spot. But this fight is in europe and all these european guys fight way better over there. I know brimage cuts a lot of weight so he could be very sluggish if the weight cut and time zone difference takes a toll on him.

NunyaBidness · 03-29-13, 04:19 PM

I would have to assume its a mistake to go heavy on anyone if you know nothing about the guy he's fighting.

The skills it takes to beat McGregor and the skills it takes to beat Hettes may not be the same.

Sacrelicious · 03-29-13, 04:24 PM

Adam Cella was on The Ultimate Fighter.

sideloaded · 03-29-13, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Adam Cella was on The Ultimate Fighter.

noshit?

Rubber Guard · 03-29-13, 04:35 PM

Spang vs. Amagov should be a fun fight. Not interested in any of the other prelim fights, betting or otherwise.

sideloaded · 03-29-13, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by Rubber Guard

Spang vs. Amagov should be a fun fight. Not interested in any of the other prelim fights, betting or otherwise.

why? tons of value

Rubber Guard · 03-29-13, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by sideloaded

why? tons of value

I'm not familiar with a handful of the guys on it. Overseas cards weird me out as well. Is this one of the morning shows for Americans?