I'll let you know what happens with this bet and at least we'll know pinnacle's policy on these things.
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Pinnacle have removed the line but haven't voided my bet.... yet.Comment -
Added a play for this weekend;
Roy Nelson & Shane Del Rosario (Double) 2 to win 2.54
Not a huge amount to say here. Mitrione will not be able to put Nelson away, yet Nelson can end this fight at any point. I give Roy Nelson an advantage in every area here.
I really don't like Pat Barry's chances here, he lacks cardio and heart. Barry maybe has a puncher's chance in round 1, but I see Del Rosario by sub here.
I'm struggling a little with plays here, there are so many fights this weekend and I will admit there a lot of guys I'm not familiar enough with to risk money. I'd personally rather sit a fight out and use it as an opportunity to learn about the fighters than make a play for the sake of it based on whatever info I found online or what footage I could get my hands on. I'm giving Varner/Guillard some thought currently and will be making a play tonight I think.
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Jamie Varner (-103 Pinnace) 2 to win 1.94
My initial feeling on this one was Varner, although I was reluctant to make a play as Guillard can finish fights quickly- he nearly had Cerrone early on. Looking back over past fights, Varner has never been KO'd. I expect Guillard to come out strong, and he has a chance of ending the fight in round 1. I feel Varner will weather the storm and will most likely finish Guillard somewhere in the middle of the fight.Comment -
Ross Pearson v George Sotiropoulos- Over 2.5 rounds (-146 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 1.71
Ross Pearson (+108 Pinnacle) 1.5 to win 1.62
Hector Lombard (-210 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 1.19
Parke/Fletcher Over 2.5 (+100 Pinnacle) 1 to win 1
Joey Beltran (+261 Pinnacle) 1 to win 2.61
Norman Parke (+100 Pinnacle) 1 to win 1
Lombard/Palhares Over 2.5 (+228 Pinnacle) 0.5 to win 1.14
Yaotzin Meza (+1030 Pinnacle) 0.5 to win 5.2
I have plays locked in for Nelson, Del Rosario, Poirier and Varner tomorrow, will be adding more.Comment -
Seems like u had a great night, gratz.Comment -
up 7 units, cheers!Comment -
Ross Pearson v George Sotiropoulos- Over 2.5 rounds (-146 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 1.71 WINNER
Ross Pearson (+108 Pinnacle) 1.5 to win 1.62 WINNER
Hector Lombard (-210 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 1.19 WINNER
Parke/Fletcher Over 2.5 (+100 Pinnacle) 1 to win 1 WINNER
Joey Beltran (+261 Pinnacle) 1 to win 2.61 WINNER
Norman Parke (+100 Pinnacle) 1 to win 1 WINNER
Lombard/Palhares Over 2.5 (+228 Pinnacle) 0.5 to win 1.14 LOSER
Yaotzin Meza (+1030 Pinnacle) 0.5 to win 5.2 LOSER
Event totals- 6 - 2
+ 7.13 Units!!!
YTD
11 - 4
+ 14.06 Units!!!
So far so good, hopefully tonight is just as successful as the last couple events. Looks like quite a few people had a good night!!! I'm on Nelson, Del Rosario, Varner & Poirier so far, still undecided about most of the other fights and haven't locked in play sizes etc.
You have a lean on Pyle/Head Gabe? Wondering if Head is worth a play at current odds.
Ps- I shamelessly and blindly tailed you on Bellator last night Gabe. I haven't watched much but you've always been pretty sharp on Belllator and your picks looked good- just threw a unit on each. So thanks to you I actually made more than posted.
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Yeah, I've got Head maxed at two books already.Ross Pearson v George Sotiropoulos- Over 2.5 rounds (-146 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 1.71 WINNER
Ross Pearson (+108 Pinnacle) 1.5 to win 1.62 WINNER
Hector Lombard (-210 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 1.19 WINNER
Parke/Fletcher Over 2.5 (+100 Pinnacle) 1 to win 1 WINNER
Joey Beltran (+261 Pinnacle) 1 to win 2.61 WINNER
Norman Parke (+100 Pinnacle) 1 to win 1 WINNER
Lombard/Palhares Over 2.5 (+228 Pinnacle) 0.5 to win 1.14 LOSER
Yaotzin Meza (+1030 Pinnacle) 0.5 to win 5.2 LOSER
Event totals- 6 - 2
+ 7.13 Units!!!
YTD
11 - 4
+ 14.06 Units!!!
So far so good, hopefully tonight is just as successful as the last couple events. Looks like quite a few people had a good night!!! I'm on Nelson, Del Rosario, Varner & Poirier so far, still undecided about most of the other fights and haven't locked in play sizes etc.
You have a lean on Pyle/Head Gabe? Wondering if Head is worth a play at current odds.
Ps- I shamelessly and blindly tailed you on Bellator last night Gabe. I haven't watched much but you've always been pretty sharp on Belllator and your picks looked good- just threw a unit on each. So thanks to you I actually made more than posted.
Happy to have helped.
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Well done dude!
I had a decent night myself as well. Seems the whole board is having a good weekend here.Comment -
Yeah, I have been thinking about this one and can't talk myself out of a bet on head. Looking at his last fight it's easy to dismiss as Ebersole has moved down now, but Hairow's no joke at 170.
James Head (+181 Pinnacle) 2 to win 3.6
Wondering if the over is a good bet for Meathead/Nelson. Mitrione is very good defensively standing, he stands a decent chance of avoiding Nelson's big punches early, and they will both gas badly after a couple of rounds. If Mitrione gets the better of Nelson early on then Nelson's chin will hold up... Just waiting for lines on Pinnacle.
I have a play on Nelson straight regardless.Comment -
Last night I cashed on Herrig, Lombard and Parke, lost on GSot though. Came out almost 2 units up by the end of it all, no complaints at all.
Tonight I've got 1 on Guillard, 1 on Ricci, 1 on Poirier and 2 on Nelson.
Nelson and Poirier seem the safest bets of the night.
I might tail you and put a sprinkle on Head as well.Comment -
Of course I do, Nelson and Poirier seem to be near locks in my opinion. I dont see what Mitrione could possibly offer Nelson short of out pointing him with small shots from a distance, but given Nelson's knockout power I dont see it playing out that way, at all.
I dont think Brookins has anything to offer Poirier either. The current lines on both arent that great, but at -250ish are definately worth a play, especially on Nelson.Comment -
You don't see what a bigger, stronger, faster, more athletic guy who develops more quickly, has a higher ceiling, is probably a better technical striker with a 3-inch height edge, and a startling 9-inch reach edge, and has a head made of iron, at +210 no less, has to offer Roy Nelson?Comment -
Correct.Comment -
to be fair, I did state that he has a chance of out pointing him from the distance, I just do not believe it will happen, and am confidently betting the current line on Roy Nelson that it does not.Comment -
Exactly what edge do you think Nelson has here to justify saying that he is a near-lock? Do you think his wrestling is so strong that he can take down, control, and finish Mitrione on the ground? Or do you think that with a three-inch height and 9-inch reach disadvantage, his mediocre boxing is still enough to finish or out-point a guy with a better gas tank, who's bigger, stronger, faster and has a similarly strong chin? What exactly do you think Nelson does to win such a large portion of the time here?Comment -
I actually think Shotgun summed it up well enough in his summary. Mitrione will not be able to put Nelson away, yet Nelson could end this fight at any point that he is able to get within range. The reach, speed, and likely cardio edge that Mitrione will have are somewhat concerning, but I do think Nelson is absolutely capable of closing the distance and finishing this fight.
Another point worth mentioning is the lack of experience on Mitrione's part. 34 years old and six professional fights? Come on. Also replacing Shane Carwin is another factor working against him. I believe he has had about a month notice, but all these things need to be taken into consideration.
I like your posts MD, and I think you are one of the sharper cappers on here, without a doubt. That being said, if you are going on Mitrione here, I have to disagree with you. Suppose we will see how it plays out tomorrow.Comment -
I picked nelson here, but I also agree the odds aren't great. I decided to parlay nelson with another similar play and keep it small.
Sac makes a good point about the lack of notice for mitrione, that might negate his cardio advantage somewhat.
Nelson has very good timing and power, I predict nelson by ko or a sloppy decision.Comment -
Calling Nelson a lock is ridiculous IMO. I actually see Nelson getting frustrated with the movement of Mitrione and end up shooting for takedowns. Saying Matt has a similarly strong chin to Nelson is a bit of an unfounded statement, we've never seen him take the kind of beating that Nelson has. Matt will be winning the standup, but I have this feeling that he's going to get outwrestled. Not to mention the Haymakers from Nelson can put Matt away if it hits flush enough. Nelson has some underrated takedowns, very explosive for such a fat guy. I think the wrestling will be an X factor here.
The line is definitely off though, IMO. I might play Matt. Fight going the distance might also be a worthwhile bet if Matt can just out maneuver and potshot Nelson until both gas in the championship rounds.Comment -
Mitrione's chin is as good as Nelson's, you really don't know what you're saying. (we haven't seen it take as much damage, but i can't even IMAGINE him getting KO'd)
And Mitrione is in camp for his fight vs De Fries, so it's not really short notice... lol you're a character, dude. Making picks out yer ass.Comment -
I appreciate the kind words. You're not being a dick in response to my criticism of your strategy (as so many are; I don't see why people take criticism of their gambling strategies as anything other than a positive, but I digress), so I'll share with you some information concerning the fight that you may find valuable.
The first piece of information is just an observation: Mitrione's chin is rock solid. I shit you not when I say he may be able to go toe-to-toe with Nelson's. He's taken massive power shots, from big heavyweights, and he's always shrugged them off with ease. I can't remember the last time I've seen him even hurt. A right hook over the top isn't going to finish Matt Mitrione. It's very possible that Nelson finds the finish, but Mitrione's chin is at a level where I'd consider it unlikely, especially when you consider the reach advantage he'll possess.
The second piece of information is something a bit more tangible. You may or may not know this, but Mitrione hasn't fought in a year, and the reason for this is that he's been training constantly in order to improve. He's turned down almost all fights since that time, and only accepted fights that he thought he could win. He took the loss to Kongo hard, and has completely re-evaluated his life as a mixed martial artist; a short notice fight shouldn't be a factor for a fighter who's been training as hard as Mitrione. The Matt Mitrione we see tonight will be an improved one; given his high ceiling, I'd expect him to be considerably improved, but this is simply my opinion. Nelson is a fighter who's long since hit his ceiling, and the guy is completely opposed to change; I see almost no notable improvement from fight to fight. Mitrione is a former NFL player and is very much aware of what it takes to be a successful athlete at the highest level. He's not as stupid as he looks... at least in regards to training.
The third is in regards to his strategy for the fight. In case you're not aware, his trainer is Duke Roufus, who is most certainly one of the very best striking coaches in the sport. He's tutored Anthony Pettis and Alan Belcher, to name some notables. You've probably heard Joe Rogan verbally fellate him quite frequently. He's an excellent trainer who is very well versed in teaching his students how to properly utilize their strengths, such as reach and height. If Mitrione is just going to come out looking for the knockout anyway, though, how is this important, I'm sure you're wondering? Welp:
“I think that I can out-athlete Roy, I think everybody knows there’s no point to reinvent the wheel against Roy, he’s not going to get knocked out, we know he has a phenomenal chin, he’s stubborn as all hell, so he’s too stubborn to get knocked out and he’s too stubborn to stop walking forwards.
So it really comes down to being an athlete, being intelligent about where I’m going to have my strikes and what strikes I choose to use.” - Matt Mitrione
Hope you, and others, find this information useful in your handicapping endeavours. Hope your bets go well tomorrow. I think a lot of people will be surprised by how well Mitrione does in this fight.Comment -
Excellent post MD, I'm looking forward to this fight. As I said, we will see how it all plays out tomorrow, I'm locked in 2 units on Nelson, but insight and perspective is always appreciated.Comment -
Excellent post MD. I'm glad I was cautious with Nelson. I will admit I didn't know half that. Still picking Roy but sounds like it's gonna be a fight. I clearly need to spend more time on news rather than rewatching fights.
I really think the over is the play here.Comment -
Over might not be a bad idea, I might put a half unit on that.
Also, locked in a tail on your Head play, one unit, good luck man.Comment -
Seems we have largely the same plays with the exception of varner/guillard, should be a good night.Comment
