Shotgun MMA Betting

[ShotgunRua]

You should feel good knowing that Gustafsson has almost no chance whatsoever against Jones and the public may be square enough to give us >-400 on him.

Jones??! Gustafsson's next fight will be against the gangster from West Lynn.

But in seriousness yeah, this victory over what's left of Shogun will only add to the hype, and Gustafsson still has nothing for Bones.

[DeFactoCrippler]

I guess the lesson here is to steer clear of these older legends as there are too many variables and the fights are too hard to predict. Also being a fan of the two guys made it tempting to throw some money on them, might as well have enjoyed the fights and stuck to my other bets which I felt more confident in.

Yeah I totally know what you mean. How was anybody to know Rua or BJ were gonna come out like that. BJ WAS MOTIVATED for this fight. Absolutely no way to predict him getting dominated like that.

Rua as well. The guy has looked SO GOOD in his fights in PRIDE there is no way to expect he wouldn't produce those same results. I was on both BJ and Shogun HUGE for max bets. maxi padded it at all my books. They were both still the right play at those odds and would do the same thing again in a heartbeat.

PS: Really cute avi pic! I'm going to use it myself at various other forums. Since we are broadies im sure that wont be a problem.

[Sacrelicious]

Well played shotgun.

MD, I'm even listening to radio shows where the hosts are talking about Gustafsson being the "only person who can stop Jon Jones" at LHW. Astounding, I dont think your estimate of -400 is actually that far off, it could be an excellent line to cash hard.

[ShotgunRua]

Well played shotgun.

MD, I'm even listening to radio shows where the hosts are talking about Gustafsson being the "only person who can stop Jon Jones" at LHW. Astounding, I dont think your estimate of -400 is actually that far off, it could be an excellent line to cash hard.

Thanks man, yeah I won't hold my breath that the odds will be quite that good but fingers crossed!

[ShotgunRua]

Just added a play for UFC 155

Junior Dos Santos- 3 to win 2.18 (-136 Paddy Power)

The odds are much better than Pinnacle and I'm not sure if that's just Paddy being slow to catch up. I personally don't think Cain has much for JDS, this fight will make it out of the first round, but I expect Dos Santos to win convincingly again.

[Beelzebubzy]

Benson Henderson- 2.5 to win 1.63 (Pinnacle) WIN

(Double) Shogun/Gustafsson over 1.5 rounds + Dennis Siver- 2 to win 1.55 (Paddy Power) WIN

Benson Henderson by decision- 1.5 to win 1.2 WIN

Shogun Rua- 1 to win 1.75 LOST

Matt Brown- 1 to win 1.41 (+141 Pinnacle) WIN

BJ Penn- 0.5 to win 1.23 (Pinnacle) LOST

Trujilo- 0.5 units to win 0.64 (+128 Pinnacle) WIN


YTD- 5 - 2

+ 4.93 UNITS!!!


Excellent night overall. Bendo vs Diaz was a one sided beatdown exactly as I expected, as was Siver/Phan. My large bets hit which is the main thing. I was actually surprised by how dominant Matt Brown was against Swick, I picked him to win but thought it would be a tough fight, very impressed with Brown.

I overestimated BJ and underestimated Gustafsson. The BJ bet was only ever a fun half unit wager, partly placed just for action, partly because I'm constantly reminded about the money I lost on Erick Silva against Fitch and how you can never count the old legends out. Either was it was a waste of half a unit- Rory looked beastly. Shogun did what Shogun does, thew devastating punches, shot for takedowns and gassed badly- he looked better than he did in the Vera fight. As expected he caught Gus pretty clean, I was waiting for a big overhand/hook to connect and hurt Gustafsson, but rather than it happening once it seemed to happen every couple of minutes, but Gus walked through them. I completely underestimated his ability to take Shogun's power shots, he has the chin to backup his skill and his ability to take Shogun's punches took all the competitiveness out of the fight.

I guess the lesson here is to steer clear of these older legends as there are too many variables and the fights are too hard to predict. Also being a fan of the two guys made it tempting to throw some money on them, might as well have enjoyed the fights and stuck to my other bets which I felt more confident in.

Nicely done brah

Welcome to the forum

Winnerz

[DeFactoCrippler]

Nicely done brah

Welcome to the forum

Winnerz

Yes it is always great to have more paddy power high rollers to hook us up with MONSTER PADDY ARBZZZ and post INCESSANTLY in every focking thread like it is their JOB.

[ShotgunRua]

Thanks Beelzebubzy!

[Beelzebubzy]

Yes it is always great to have more paddy power high rollers to hook us up with MONSTER PADDY ARBZZZ and post INCESSANTLY in every focking thread like it is their JOB.

no not another arber
stop this madness!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

[DeFactoCrippler]

no not another arber
stop this madness!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

Lol i love arbs, broady. You could say I live in an arboritum.

It's more about "hey do you have change for 100 units i need to use the phone".

Also these guys sure are so die hard fans and posters for those "units".

[DeFactoCrippler]

Bubzy, you need to realize that everything is not as it seems. Somethings may appear one way on the surface to the uninitiated, but it is merely a facade.

Take the television show "Full House". At first glance the show is about 3 men who live together in house and raise a family. So what. So what....

[Sacrelicious]

Just added a play for UFC 155

Junior Dos Santos- 3 to win 2.18 (-136 Paddy Power)

The odds are much better than Pinnacle and I'm not sure if that's just Paddy being slow to catch up. I personally don't think Cain has much for JDS, this fight will make it out of the first round, but I expect Dos Santos to win convincingly again.

Excellent odds, I might open an account there just for that line, otherwise I'll cap him somewhere else for -150, also thinking around 2 to 3 units.

[ShotgunRua]

I've added 1 play so far for FX6

Ross Pearson (+108 Pinnacle) 1.5 to win 1.62

I have Pearson due to use his quickness and technical striking. This is a tough fight to call with both guys having advantages, Pearson seems highly motivated for this fight and I'm wondering if the Siver defeat had a psychological effect on George, although in fairness Dos Anjos is an awesome fighter and there's no shame in a 2 fight losing streak to those guys.

And 1 for UFC 155

Alan Belcher (+110 Pinnacle) 2 to win 2.20

I think Belcher will destroy Okami. He's got so much confidence after 4 straight finishes and beating Palhares at his own game and he generally seems to be improving in all areas. He could easily be on a 7 fight streak now. I think Silva took a lot out of Okami mentally, he is still among the elite, but I think he'll be tentative here. I really can't see Okami finishing Belcher, he doesn't throw with that much power and Belcher is clearly able to fend off submissions, I think an opening will come, Alan will swarm and Okami will quit.

[Beelzebubzy]

Bubzy, you need to realize that everything is not as it seems. Somethings may appear one way on the surface to the uninitiated, but it is merely a facade.

Take the television show "Full House". At first glance the show is about 3 men who live together in house and raise a family. So what. So what....

lori whatever was hot

[Sacrelicious]

Solid picks. I'm gonna be fading you with GSot, but only small. I'm not hugely invested in that fight but I think GSot might be able to grind out a win. Hoping a prop for plus rounds shows up, I figure a decision is likely. The jury is still out on Belcher and Okami for me, I need to rewatch some tape. No play on Lombard?

As much as Cain kicks some mad ass, JDS is the play to make, full out. Good call.

[ShotgunRua]

Solid picks. I'm gonna be fading you with GSot, but only small. I'm not hugely invested in that fight but I think GSot might be able to grind out a win. Hoping a prop for plus rounds shows up, I figure a decision is likely. The jury is still out on Belcher and Okami for me, I need to rewatch some tape. No play on Lombard?

As much as Cain kicks some mad ass, JDS is the play to make, full out. Good call.

Thanks mate, working on some more plays currently but your feedback is most certainly appreciated.

Yeah, I see the Pearson GSot fight as very much a striker vs grappler fight (although obviously everyone is well rounded these days). Since all fights start standing I always try to analyse how effectively the grappler can control where the fight takes place, in this instance I feel GSot's takedown ability isn't that outstanding, and Pearson can scramble. I see a similar grinding points victory, but with Pearson outlanding GSot and mostly avoiding the takedowns/sub attempts. In fairness I would not be surprised to see it go your way, but might as well take the (slight) dog odds.

Let me know what you think of Belcher/Okami- I'm struggling to keep this at 2 units as I'm feeling very good about this one.

No play yet on Lombard. In my opinion there's nothing to play currently, absolutely no point playing Lombard straight as the return doesn't justify the risk, it might be hard to select a prop when props become available as both KO and decision seem possible. I picked Siver in the last event, but it was pointless playing Siver straight, so I parlayed it with what I considered another solid bet in Shogun/Gus over 1.5, I'll do something similar with Lombard.

Yeah JDS is a bad match up for Cain. I agree Cain is a great fighter but he has nothing for JDS in my humble opinion.

[Sacrelicious]

Might want to keep an eye on Herrig for Bellator. Its not a total lock, but even at a bad line its parlay filler.

[ShotgunRua]

Will do sir.

[MD]

The basis people seem to have for saying that JDS will crush Cain is ridiculous. They fought for one minute, both of them injured, with Cain out of shape. Absolutely no indication of how this fight will go.

I remember similarly when people were betting Benson in the second Edgar fight. Unbelievably square bet.

JDS isn't necessarily a bad bet, but if you go large on him, there's a pretty decent chance you're getting buried.

[ShotgunRua]

The basis people seem to have for saying that JDS will crush Cain is ridiculous. They fought for one minute, both of them injured, with Cain out of shape. Absolutely no indication of how this fight will go.

I remember similarly when people were betting Benson in the second Edgar fight. Unbelievably square bet.

JDS isn't necessarily a bad bet, but if you go large on him, there's a pretty decent chance you're getting buried.

I've never alluded to or mentioned the first fight in any post and I don't believe it is all relevant here. I feel that JDS has the takedown defense to keep the fight standing and has demonstrated the ability to scramble when needed. The stand up very clearly favours JDS.

If I believed history would repeat itself I'd be betting JDS by KO, but I'm very prepared for Cain to make this a fight and a decision isn't unlikely here.

I bet 0.5 to 5 units depending on my confidence level. JDS is a 3, which for me is a relatively large bet however I had 4 on Bendo last weekend.

[gabe]

The basis people seem to have for saying that JDS will crush Cain is ridiculous. They fought for one minute, both of them injured, with Cain out of shape. Absolutely no indication of how this fight will go.

I remember similarly when people were betting Benson in the second Edgar fight. Unbelievably square bet.

JDS isn't necessarily a bad bet, but if you go large on him, there's a pretty decent chance you're getting buried.

Quite the contrary, Bendo was the sharp bet. I felt it would be a very close fight and even if Edgar did win, judges would give Bendo a split decision... and it went exactly as I thought... I didn't think Bendo would dominate the fight, but I did think he would win as long as Frankie didn't dominate, thus betting the shit out of Bendo was the right way to go.

That said, I agree with you about JDS. Before the first fight, most people on the forum were on Cain... now, because of a flukey 1 minute fight and a bunch of hype, everyone is on JDS. Cain looked better than ever in his last fight, and everyone is still counting him out. I'm personally not betting on either of them, I'm gonna be on the props for that fight.

[MD]

Gabe, I strongly disagree. I think Bendo did get dominated in the second fight, and Frankie was the sharp side. I understand that Bendo is the side you chose, and that's fine, but to say that he was the sharp side, given the odds, closeness of the fight, and how all (and I do mean all) of the major media publications scored it, is unreasonable, I think. I like Cain a lot in the rematch. Hope I'm not about to get buried alone, because everyone else will be on JDS it seems.

I've never alluded to or mentioned the first fight in any post and I don't believe it is all relevant here. I feel that JDS has the takedown defense to keep the fight standing and has demonstrated the ability to scramble when needed. The stand up very clearly favours JDS.

If I believed history would repeat itself I'd be betting JDS by KO, but I'm very prepared for Cain to make this a fight and a decision isn't unlikely here.

I bet 0.5 to 5 units depending on my confidence level. JDS is a 3, which for me is a relatively large bet however I had 4 on Bendo last weekend.

Bendo was a top five play of the year for me; I use Kelly staking so I can't express how sizeable a bet I had on him, but I gave Bendo a 92% probability to win, which is my maximum as a rule, and so a very, very large bet. About as large as I make.

As for the rematch, I agree JDS should win if it stays exclusively on the feet, but why does the stand up "very clearly" favour JDS? Do you know who JDS has had the most trouble against in the stand up?

In addition, there's a factor you're forgetting, which is that stand up and wrestling are not mutually exclusive; when blended together as Cain does, both become much stronger assets. Watch Urijah Faber vs Eddie Wineland for a good example of this. Were it a kickboxing match or a "try to take down Eddie Wineland" match, Wineland likely would have come out on top. It wasn't until Faber figured out how to alternate his game more effectively that he managed to win.

[gabe]

Gabe, I strongly disagree. I think Bendo did get dominated in the second fight, and Frankie was the sharp side. I understand that Bendo is the side you chose, and that's fine, but to say that he was the sharp side, given the odds, closeness of the fight, and how all (and I do mean all) of the major media publications scored it, is unreasonable, I think. I like Cain a lot in the rematch. Hope I'm not about to get buried alone, because everyone else will be on JDS it seems.



Bendo was a top five play of the year for me; I use Kelly staking so I can't express how sizeable a bet I had on him, but I gave Bendo a 92% probability to win, which is my maximum as a rule, and so a very, very large bet. About as large as I make.

As for the rematch, I agree JDS should win if it stays exclusively on the feet, but why does the stand up "very clearly" favour JDS? Do you know who JDS has had the most trouble against in the stand up?

In addition, there's a factor you're forgetting, which is that stand up and wrestling are not mutually exclusive; when blended together as Cain does, both become much stronger assets. Watch Urijah Faber vs Eddie Wineland for a good example of this. Were it a kickboxing match or a "try to take down Eddie Wineland" match, Wineland likely would have come out on top. It wasn't until Faber figured out how to alternate his game more effectively that he managed to win.

Oh really? You think Frankie Edgar dominated Benson Henderson rather than edging a close decision? OK Pal, no one is paying attention to anything you have to say after that.

Bendo is not "the side i chose" - i simply bet on him, because I expected a winning ticket, whether he deserved to win or not. That was the sharp bet. Sharp money that evening was on Ben Henderson, mine included.

[gabe]

and yes, Cain is a very good boxer, so you're right, his stand up should not be overlooked

[MD]

Oh really? You think Frankie Edgar dominated Benson Henderson rather than edging a close decision? OK Pal, no one is paying attention to anything you have to say after that.

Bendo is not "the side i chose" - i simply bet on him, because I expected a winning ticket, whether he deserved to win or not. That was the sharp bet. Sharp money that evening was on Ben Henderson, mine included.

Every media site I could possibly find had Edgar winning, and most had him up four rounds to one. He dominated in the sense that he clearly won. I can't see any logical rationale as to why Benson deserved that decision. Ground control? Striking? Damage?... Champion-ness?

Disagree. Sharp money was Edgar.

[gabe]

Every media site I could possibly find had Edgar winning, and most had him up four rounds to one. He dominated in the sense that he clearly won. I can't see any logical rationale as to why Benson deserved that decision. Ground control? Striking? Damage?... Champion-ness?

Disagree. Sharp money was Edgar.

I don't think you have any idea what sharp money is. It doesn't matter what happened in the fight. And no, Frankie did not clearly win so many rounds. CLOSE, nothing was CLEAR. Again, doesn't matter what happened in the fight. The sharp got his money down on Benson, then went to have dinner, checked his twitter feed to make sure Henderson won, then went back to the sportsbook to cash his winning ticket. Sharp perception was that Bendo would win, as long as he didn't get completely man-handled...and I certainly didn't expect Frankie to be able to dominate him like that... If it was a close fight, Benson would take it. Taking Frankie Edgar at dog odds because the first fight was so close was the SQUARE play, my friend.

[MD]

I don't think you have any idea what sharp money is. It doesn't matter what happened in the fight. And no, Frankie did not clearly win so many rounds. CLOSE, nothing was CLEAR. Again, doesn't matter what happened in the fight. The sharp got his money down on Benson, then went to have dinner, checked his twitter feed to make sure Henderson won, then went back to the sportsbook to cash his winning ticket. Sharp perception was that Bendo would win, as long as he didn't get completely man-handled...and I certainly didn't expect Frankie to be able to dominate him like that... If it was a close fight, Benson would take it. Taking Frankie Edgar at dog odds because the first fight was so close was the SQUARE play, my friend.

I'm pretty sure this discussion is over now.

[ShotgunRua]

In addition, there's a factor you're forgetting, which is that stand up and wrestling are not mutually exclusive; when blended together as Cain does, both become much stronger assets. Watch Urijah Faber vs Eddie Wineland for a good example of this. Were it a kickboxing match or a "try to take down Eddie Wineland" match, Wineland likely would have come out on top. It wasn't until Faber figured out how to alternate his game more effectively that he managed to win.

Or Chael Sonnen repeatedly tagging Anderson Silva in their first fight, despite Anderson being the clearly superior striker. I haven't overlooked this, I just personally feel Cain will be far more wary of JDS striking than JDS will be of Cain's wrestling. When all is said and done my final play is always based on my gut feeling and I try to consider psychology as much as possible. I don't doubt Cain is hungry, and I expect a fight.

I look forward to seeing who's right about this one, if I felt this was a 'lock' I'd have risked 5 units, I wouldn't be in shock if Cain pulled out a victory here.

[ShotgunRua]

Ross Pearson v George Sotiropoulos- Over 2.5 rounds (-146 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 1.71

Not much to say here except both guys will be pacing themselves for 5 rounds and being the main event I don't expect many crazy risks. Anything can happen so I'm keeping this bet under 3, I also don't want too much riding on one fight, as currently if Sot hits a sub early I lose 2 plays. I think this is a really good line, if Pinnacle allowed parlays I'd probably have parlayed with Lombard as the odds on him are at -201 there currently.

[gabe]

I'm pretty sure this discussion is over now.

It was over when I told you the square money was on Edgar.

[Mercersux]

Ross Pearson v George Sotiropoulos- Over 2.5 rounds (-146 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 1.71

Not much to say here except both guys will be pacing themselves for 5 rounds and being the main event I don't expect many crazy risks. Anything can happen so I'm keeping this bet under 3, I also don't want too much riding on one fight, as currently if Sot hits a sub early I lose 2 plays. I think this is a really good line, if Pinnacle allowed parlays I'd probably have parlayed with Lombard as the odds on him are at -201 there currently.

I wonder if the books mistakenly think this is a 3 rounder instead of a 5 rounder. Have done so in the past so wouldn't be shocked if that was the case. Just seems like really good odds for only 2.5 rnds when in 5 rounders im used to seeing o/u of 3.5 & 4.5 except for the heavyweights.

[Vaughany]

Ross Pearson v George Sotiropoulos- Over 2.5 rounds (-146 Pinnacle) 2.5 to win 1.71

Not much to say here except both guys will be pacing themselves for 5 rounds and being the main event I don't expect many crazy risks. Anything can happen so I'm keeping this bet under 3, I also don't want too much riding on one fight, as currently if Sot hits a sub early I lose 2 plays. I think this is a really good line, if Pinnacle allowed parlays I'd probably have parlayed with Lombard as the odds on him are at -201 there currently.

I believe sportbet has it as three rounds

[ShotgunRua]

Yeah, i'm tempted to pound this line. If the book has made a mistake do they honour the bet?

[Vaughany]

sportbet will void

[PunisherIND]

sportbet will void

5dimes has pulled the prop lines for pearson-sotiropoulos... they must be changing the lines to a 5 round fight.