I've been betting on MMA for around a year, but with very little structure or discipline and with varying degrees of success. I'm looking to keep a log of all bets I place on MMA events for at least the next year and see if I can hopefully make a profit.
I have decided on a fairly limited bankroll for this next few months as I don't want my betting to have any bearing on my financial security etc. I will be diving my overall bankroll into units which amount to 1% of my starting balance, I will be betting between 1 and 5 units per bet depending on my level of confidence. Given the infrequency of MMA events this does not sound like a lot, however I will be betting on other sports as well.
I am relatively clueless about Bellator however I am discovering it slowly, I'll probably be picking UFC events for the near future. I'm completely open to suggestions and discussion, if you think I'm potentially missing out on a great bet please let me know. I will track units gained/lost and will never post or even hint at any bets placed which do not appear in this thread first. Some of you will no doubt notice I don't always have the best lines, I'm just using 1 book, (Paddy Power), I like the layout and ease of use. If I started increasing the size of the units later I'd probably also start shopping around for each bet.
Wish me luck!!
First 2 bets placed;
Benson Henderson by decision- 1.5 to win 1.2
This is probably an unpopular opinion but I don't honestly think this will be that competitive. I foresee Bendo basically beating Diaz up for 5 rounds and taking the decision. If Benson is fighting smart I expect something of a Condit/Diaz strategy but with harder more damaging leg kicks, I also expect to see Diaz outwrestled and controlled for much of the fight. Don't get me wrong I'm sure he'll have his moments, perhaps a good sub attempt or a nice combo of punches, but by the time the fight ends there will be no question who won. At the same time I really do not envision Henderson finishing Diaz, I expect him to be disciplined and cautious to avoid the subs. I tend to avoid props but I feel really confident about this one.
Shogun Rua- 1 to win 1.75
Despite my username I'm not a blind Shogun fan, if he were fighting Jones again I'd bet on Jones. But he's not fighting Jones, not at all. Gustafsson has a lot of hype, and a lot of finishes against very average guys. This is a massive step up in competition for him. People talk about Shogun in the Vera fight, but honestly... I think Vera would give Gustafsson some problems, not saying he'd win but I think he's criminally underrated.
As for Shogun, it's a little bit cliche to say it depends on which Shogun shows up, but it is true he's turned into an incredibly inconsistent fighter. If he turns up in good shape and has worked on his cardio as he said he would, this is a tough fight for the Mauler. If he turns up in the exact same shape he was in for Vera then I think think this is a pick em. I honestly don't see Gustafsson finishing Shogun, look at the punishment he's taken, and compare that with Gustafsson's last fight. My money would be on Gus in a boxing match, but Shogun shoots for takedowns in round 1 of every single fight he has, and he generally secures them against guys with good TDD. This combined with Shogun's KO power has to impact the Mauler's ability to establish himself in this fight. My guess is badly gassed Shogun by TKO, but I'll play him straight as I think a sub and even a decision, (via grappling control), is possible.
I'll update with more plays. How does everyone feel about BJ as a dog? Considering a tiny 0.5 unit play.
I have decided on a fairly limited bankroll for this next few months as I don't want my betting to have any bearing on my financial security etc. I will be diving my overall bankroll into units which amount to 1% of my starting balance, I will be betting between 1 and 5 units per bet depending on my level of confidence. Given the infrequency of MMA events this does not sound like a lot, however I will be betting on other sports as well.
I am relatively clueless about Bellator however I am discovering it slowly, I'll probably be picking UFC events for the near future. I'm completely open to suggestions and discussion, if you think I'm potentially missing out on a great bet please let me know. I will track units gained/lost and will never post or even hint at any bets placed which do not appear in this thread first. Some of you will no doubt notice I don't always have the best lines, I'm just using 1 book, (Paddy Power), I like the layout and ease of use. If I started increasing the size of the units later I'd probably also start shopping around for each bet.
Wish me luck!!
First 2 bets placed;
Benson Henderson by decision- 1.5 to win 1.2
This is probably an unpopular opinion but I don't honestly think this will be that competitive. I foresee Bendo basically beating Diaz up for 5 rounds and taking the decision. If Benson is fighting smart I expect something of a Condit/Diaz strategy but with harder more damaging leg kicks, I also expect to see Diaz outwrestled and controlled for much of the fight. Don't get me wrong I'm sure he'll have his moments, perhaps a good sub attempt or a nice combo of punches, but by the time the fight ends there will be no question who won. At the same time I really do not envision Henderson finishing Diaz, I expect him to be disciplined and cautious to avoid the subs. I tend to avoid props but I feel really confident about this one.
Shogun Rua- 1 to win 1.75
Despite my username I'm not a blind Shogun fan, if he were fighting Jones again I'd bet on Jones. But he's not fighting Jones, not at all. Gustafsson has a lot of hype, and a lot of finishes against very average guys. This is a massive step up in competition for him. People talk about Shogun in the Vera fight, but honestly... I think Vera would give Gustafsson some problems, not saying he'd win but I think he's criminally underrated.
As for Shogun, it's a little bit cliche to say it depends on which Shogun shows up, but it is true he's turned into an incredibly inconsistent fighter. If he turns up in good shape and has worked on his cardio as he said he would, this is a tough fight for the Mauler. If he turns up in the exact same shape he was in for Vera then I think think this is a pick em. I honestly don't see Gustafsson finishing Shogun, look at the punishment he's taken, and compare that with Gustafsson's last fight. My money would be on Gus in a boxing match, but Shogun shoots for takedowns in round 1 of every single fight he has, and he generally secures them against guys with good TDD. This combined with Shogun's KO power has to impact the Mauler's ability to establish himself in this fight. My guess is badly gassed Shogun by TKO, but I'll play him straight as I think a sub and even a decision, (via grappling control), is possible.
I'll update with more plays. How does everyone feel about BJ as a dog? Considering a tiny 0.5 unit play.
