MD's House of Winnerz

MD · 07-31-13, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by mmaed

No dickhead I didn't look at Wikipedia.

Lighten up brah.

Even if you're really lazy (which I am), you have to see the absurdity of basing your opinions around play-by-plays.

mmaed · 07-31-13, 12:57 PM

I watched parts of the lyman good - koreshkov fight. Play by plays can be useful. They aren't as good as tape but you can learn from them and make money.

goodfellas433 · 07-31-13, 01:00 PM

Missed all the opening lines, trying to find something at this late hour...how do you feel about Jenkins/ barreras under 1.5?

MD · 07-31-13, 01:10 PM

Originally posted by goodfellas433

Missed all the opening lines, trying to find something at this late hour...how do you feel about Jenkins/ barreras under 1.5?

I may take o1.5. Jenkins isn't a killer on the ground, and this is the best opponent he's ever faced.

Originally posted by mmaed

I watched parts of the lyman good - koreshkov fight. Play by plays can be useful. They aren't as good as tape but you can learn from them and make money.

If you like getting slanted perspectives on the fight to judge your opinions off of, rather than just watching the fights and making your own opinions, sure. If you're serious about making money, not so much.

Ron_Paul_2012 · 07-31-13, 01:34 PM

Originally posted by MD

That's great bro, you find out anything cool on Wikipedia, too?

I 'cap Askren as the favourite, but he's being overvalued here, and I definitely don't see any value in him at -400. He'll probably win, but I don't think you're on the right side here. Askren's top game is no joke, but his takedowns are pretty horrendous. He almost always gets takedowns because his opponent has awful takedown defence, or because they make a huge mistake, as Hieron did repeatedly in their fight. Koreshkov's takedown defence isn't great, but with his prodigious talent, the time he's had to train for this fight, and the insane power and accuracy he possesses, I think there's a lot of value on him.

Askren's top game is absolutely brilliant. Instead of a suffocating top game which gets booed by the audience & stood up by the ref. He has a loose top game in which he floats above his opponent. This loose top game is a type of baiting. He baits his opponents into expending energy attempting submissions. This also keeps the action going so that the fight doesn't get stood up. What he is able to do is extremely difficult to do and it is absolutely brilliant. Koreshkov is an excellent up & coming fighter. However, he does not have one punch KO power. If he had the same one punch KO power as Paul Daley for example then his % chance to emerge victorious would be much greater.

MD · 07-31-13, 01:49 PM

Originally posted by Ron_Paul_2012

Askren's top game is absolutely brilliant. Instead of a suffocating top game which gets booed by the audience & stood up by the ref. He has a loose top game in which he floats above his opponent. This loose top game is a type of baiting. He baits his opponents into expending energy attempting submissions. This also keeps the action going so that the fight doesn't get stood up. What he is able to do is extremely difficult to do and it is absolutely brilliant. Koreshkov is an excellent up & coming fighter. However, he does not have one punch KO power. If he had the same one punch KO power as Paul Daley for example then his % chance to emerge victorious would be much greater.

I disagree strongly that Koreshkov does not have one punch KO power. Koreshkov is one of the most dangerous strikers at 170, in my opinion, if not the most.

I agree with you about Askren's top game for the most part. The Amoussou fight showed what he is capable of when he really tries to put a beating on someone, and it was pretty gross.

JustinOpinion · 07-31-13, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by MD

I think there's value on all of them. Especially since Noe and Rickels aren't exactly dangerous fighters. Noe's takedown defence is very good, but he doesn't have the striking to threaten Mo, so it doesn't really matter.

Did you think Newton had striking to threaten Mo, though?

NunyaBidness · 07-31-13, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by MD

I may take o1.5. Jenkins isn't a killer on the ground, and this is the best opponent he's ever faced.

If you like getting slanted perspectives on the fight to judge your opinions off of, rather than just watching the fights and making your own opinions, sure. If you're serious about making money, not so much.

You've got to weigh your times value as well. I don't put a lot of effort into capping some of these smaller fights because the footage is hard to get, and when you get it, its often times against unknowable competition, Is this guy good, or does he look good because his opponents are so bad.

So, you get into a spot where you think you've found a 5% edge, but you're not willing to put too much on it because of the aforementioned factors, so maybe you put 1k down, for a $50 expected profit. How much time did it take you to make that $50?

Granted, I know you'll disagree MD, because you constantly find 99% edges.

NunyaBidness · 07-31-13, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by MD

I disagree strongly that Koreshkov does not have one punch KO power. Koreshkov is one of the most dangerous strikers at 170, in my opinion, if not the most.

Who would win if #1 striker in the world Chris Weidman met him at catchweight?

MD · 07-31-13, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by JustinOpinion

Did you think Newton had striking to threaten Mo, though?

Yes.

MD · 07-31-13, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

You've got to weigh your times value as well. I don't put a lot of effort into capping some of these smaller fights because the footage is hard to get, and when you get it, its often times against unknowable competition, Is this guy good, or does he look good because his opponents are so bad.

So, you get into a spot where you think you've found a 5% edge, but you're not willing to put too much on it because of the aforementioned factors, so maybe you put 1k down, for a $50 expected profit. How much time did it take you to make that $50?

Granted, I know you'll disagree MD, because you constantly find 99% edges.

Of course there are fights that it is simply not worth it to 'cap. However, in those fights, what do you gain from reading play-by-plays? If it's not worth your time to watch footage to gain an edge, it's almost always not worth a smaller amount of your time to gain a much smaller edge, in my opinion.

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Who would win if #1 striker in the world Chris Weidman met him at catchweight?

I dunno bro, who would win if #1 striker in the world Anderson Silva met Chris Weidman in an MMA match, and Chris Weidman had <1% chance of getting the knockout?

NunyaBidness · 07-31-13, 02:23 PM

Originally posted by MD

I dunno bro, who would win if #1 striker in the world Anderson Silva met Chris Weidman in an MMA match, and Chris Weidman had <1% chance of getting the knockout?

I just unfriended you on facebook.

NunyaBidness · 07-31-13, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by MD

Of course there are fights that it is simply not worth it to 'cap. However, in those fights, what do you gain from reading play-by-plays? If it's not worth your time to watch footage to gain an edge, it's almost always not worth a smaller amount of your time to gain a much smaller edge, in my opinion.

That's what I'm saying, is possibly there is a SMALL amount of value to doing just that. And if I can get a 0.5% edge with 5 minutes of work vs 5% edge with 4 hours of work, I'll take the former.

mmaed · 07-31-13, 02:50 PM

There is value in because your gaining information. There is more value in watching the actual fight. Thats all.

NunyaBidness · 07-31-13, 02:57 PM

I just said that.

Beelzebubzy · 07-31-13, 02:57 PM

I'm the only square on askren!!

I have him parlayed so its ok I got him at evens

NunyaBidness · 07-31-13, 02:58 PM

I parlayed him with Noe, so I got him at +1000.

mmaed · 07-31-13, 03:02 PM

Im on askren for 2 units, as well as under 4.5 rounds for a unit. On lawal chandler as well. Then those three plus patricio in a half unit parlay.

Beelzebubzy · 07-31-13, 03:02 PM

You are alot better at this bettor stuff than me nunya
I can only pick wrestling winners 81% of the time

NunyaBidness · 07-31-13, 03:13 PM

Lol. What does that pay at -20000?

MD · 07-31-13, 03:15 PM

Nunya, you like intelligent comedies bruhv?

Smartest and most original comedy to come out in years in my opinion. I'm a sucker for comedies that actually make me feel good, though. I'm also a pretty big fan of Aubrey Plaza.

NunyaBidness · 07-31-13, 03:19 PM

Yeah, I saw it when it came to the theatre. Liked it a lot. Big fan of the Duplass' brothers. I like Aubrey too.

I think Humpday is our life story.

Beelzebubzy · 07-31-13, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

Lol. What does that pay at -20000?

Parlay it with gsp brahhhhh

Vaughany · 07-31-13, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by MD

I disagree strongly that Koreshkov does not have one punch KO power. Koreshkov is one of the most dangerous strikers at 170, in my opinion, if not the most.

I agree with you about Askren's top game for the most part. The Amoussou fight showed what he is capable of when he really tries to put a beating on someone, and it was pretty gross.

I agree strongly with your decision to strongly disagree! Just because he doesn't throw wild hooks or telegraphed overhand rights like Jake The Flake Ellenberger doesn't mean he doesn't have knockout power

FightFightFight · 07-31-13, 04:01 PM

Agree with most of your ideas on koreshkov, but he has to ko him. 3, 4, 5th rounds are all askren, no question.

Vaughany · 07-31-13, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by MD

Nunya, you like intelligent comedies bruhv?

Smartest and most original comedy to come out in years in my opinion. I'm a sucker for comedies that actually make me feel good, though. I'm also a pretty big fan of Aubrey Plaza.

Nice one, I'd not heard of this, will check it out. I have a moderate-large hard-on for Aubrey Plaza!

mmaed · 07-31-13, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

Agree with most of your ideas on koreshkov, but he has to ko him. 3, 4, 5th rounds are all askren, no question.

If koreshkov doesnt ko him in the first two rounds i think askren will wear him out and stop him on the ground. Unless of course his takedown defense proves to be better than i thought it was.

MD · 07-31-13, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by FightFightFight

Agree with most of your ideas on koreshkov, but he has to ko him. 3, 4, 5th rounds are all askren, no question.

Pretty much, yeah. I expect this to be the best Koreshkov we've ever seen, but I expect him to gas in the fourth at the latest.

Beelzebubzy · 07-31-13, 04:16 PM

Originally posted by MD

Pretty much, yeah. I expect this to be the best Koreshkov we've ever seen, but I expect him to gas in the fourth at the latest.

I expect this to be the best askren we ever seen. His frisbee skills are cray

On2TheNext1 · 07-31-13, 04:20 PM

Askren by Showkick

mmaed · 07-31-13, 08:18 PM

Originally posted by MD

That's great bro, you find out anything cool on Wikipedia, too?

I 'cap Askren as the favourite, but he's being overvalued here, and I definitely don't see any value in him at -400. He'll probably win, but I don't think you're on the right side here. Askren's top game is no joke, but his takedowns are pretty horrendous. He almost always gets takedowns because his opponent has awful takedown defence, or because they make a huge mistake, as Hieron did repeatedly in their fight. Koreshkov's takedown defence isn't great, but with his prodigious talent, the time he's had to train for this fight, and the insane power and accuracy he possesses, I think there's a lot of value on him.

Play by plays for the win.

MD · 07-31-13, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by mmaed

Play by plays for the win.

You realize that a -400 favourite is expected to cash, right? How the fact that Askren won supports your position, I have no idea.
Is your wikicapped Perosh play gonna cash too?

mmaed · 07-31-13, 08:30 PM

I dont have a play on perosh. Your analysis was pretty good though. The three shots he landed were big power shots. His seven months of training without wrestlers paid of bigtime too.

Abb88ate · 07-31-13, 08:31 PM

Honestly considering a play on Rua by decision, also.

MD · 07-31-13, 08:33 PM

Originally posted by mmaed

I dont have a play on perosh. Your analysis was pretty good though. The three shots he landed were big power shots. His seven months of training without wrestlers paid of bigtime too.

Thanks bro. It wasn't that hard, I just watched footage because I'm not lazy or bad at gambling.