UFC 154: St-Pierre Vs Condit(Nov 17th, 2012)

[Beelzebubzy]

Cotes power is over hyped by the ufc

[Vaughany]

Cotes power is over hyped by the ufc

It is indeed. His solid chin is his biggest strength!

[Beelzebubzy]

Kampmann has stopped 77.8 percent of tries against him while Hendricks has stopped 69.6 percent, according to FightMetric.

[Vaughany]

[Mercersux]

Kampmann has stopped 77.8 percent of tries against him while Hendricks has stopped 69.6 percent, according to FightMetric.

Definitely an interesting statistic.

[Vaughany]

Alan Belcher's prediction for GSP/Condit:

"GSP dec, easiest fight to pick of the year..unanimous I guarantee it"

[Beelzebubzy]

Alan Belcher's prediction for GSP/Condit:

"GSP dec, easiest fight to pick of the year..unanimous I guarantee it"

damn I thought Andy Bonnar was easy

[MD]

I'm on Kampmann moderate, GSP by decision moderate, Siler small-moderate, although I think it's a very winnable fight for Elkins. I'm not convinced I'm on the right side here, but I'm banking on Siler's size and athleticism to stuff Elkins for the duration. Elkins has a very good top game and a fantastic, Fitch-like mentality, but his takedowns are some of the worst I've ever seen from a wrestling specialist.

EDIT: Also on Bocek.

I have a parlay-based prop bet going on with a friend, so here's some winnerz-tier parlays:

Riddle/Siler/Bocek: +598
Philipou/Riddle/Siler: +329
Carmont/St-Pierre dec./Philippou dec./Siler/Riddle/Bocek/Hominick: +5165
Carmont/Philippou/Cote/Riddle/Hominick: +450

There's some more, but they're even worse, so I'll spare you.

Anyway, expecting a profitable weekend, between this and Bellator.

[Grabaka]

I really want this thank you my man... Ill try to cash and buy it. WOOO

[PunisherIND]

watching weigh ins. they just said chad griggs credits his rooster for this training camp.

[Imsmarterthanu]

I found a few. He looked terrible in all of them.

Lol guy knows nothing

yeah from the little i read and seen on him, he didn't look very good. Menjivar should handle this kid pretty easily, if not, he should probably retire.

He's not going to handle this kid at all, it's this kid gonna be outgrappling and outworking menjivar the entire time. The only chance menjivar has is if he connects with a kick but expect constant pressure from this kid. He will put menjivars old ass to work

[MMAbetMASTA]

someone talk me out of playing CP at -250...

I've seen people writing that ring's diverse striking aresenal is something CP hasn't faced... But while ring has a diverse arsenal, I'm not impressed by it, in fact I think his stand up has looked pretty 'meh' to be honest. Ring's cardio is also in question, as he's looked sluggish in the 3rd round in all 3 zuffa fights I saw.. I don't think he has the wrestling to take it down either, so I'm thinking CP will win a fairly one sided stand up affair to a UD... What am I missing?? I've seen some people on here picking ring but they didn't provide any breakdowns, would love to hear some arguments for ring, thanks.

[MMAbetMASTA]

See some small value in lawlor as well and will prob put a sprinkle...

and also hoping RDA's line will drop (think it will), I think he's gonna have a breakout performance against bocek (I think RDA and tibau are probably two of the most underrated lws out there)..Guys with better and faster takedowns than bocek struggled greatly to get RDA down, and he will destroy bocek standing (I also think he has a great attack off his back too so I wouldn't be surprised to see reversals or possible sub locks if bocek does get him down frequently and gets in top position...)

Also hoping elkins continues to drop, I'll def play him as a small dog or better. Like kapman as a larger dog too, hoping he gains value.

So I'm waiting on most these lines right now, CP is the only play I'm considering to pull the trigger on right now, the rest I think might swing in my favor.

[eligibletackle]

So what are the props people are liking for Condit ITD / GSP decision?

I think the gameplan to beating GSP is out there, and Condit just needs to rattle his confidence w/ those high risk moves. GSP insta-tapping to the Hughes armbar, how he handled Serra after the initial punch, freaking out over the Shields eyepoke. He fights scared and it's not going to be the most technical guy that beats him next, it'll be the guy who'll throw the kitchen sink at GSP, will fight unafraid of the TD, and will rattle GSP & finish him shortly after.


Having said that, I don't think ring rust will be a concern and will probably make GSP fight more conservatively than ever. Take out Condit's intangibles like gameness & killer instincts and on paper he's prime for a GSP steamrolling.


Condit ITD +350/ Condit TKO/KO +425
&
GSP points handicap -14.5 +240 / -9.5 +120
?


I know that leaves a big hole if Condit wins a single round clearly but I feel ok dismissing that, and going w/ a GSP handicap rather than GSP by dec (-120)


Could Jackson prepare Condit / know GSP's weaknesses well enough so that Condit can methodically win a few rounds?

[Rubber Guard]

I like Carmont in parlays. Lawler is really a can. A can with a name, from his brother and the TUF show.

While Lawler is busy falling down on purpose and wearing masks to weigh ins...guys like Carmont are dead serious and there to work. Carmont was MUCH bigger. More athletic. Better skills...

[Rubber Guard]

Could Jackson prepare Condit / know GSP's weaknesses well enough so that Condit can methodically win a few rounds?

Jackson isn't training either fighter.

I don't see where Condit is better. Condit prolly has a better chin. Other than that I don't see a single advantage. Flying knees and whirling derbys aren't going to beat GSP. Condit's striking power is vastly overrated. His BJJ game is overrated. And we all know his wrestling sucks. I think Condit will be game, and will stay in there. But GSP by decision is the play. Really GSP by UD is the play. Really is one of the easier prop bets out there. That is what he does. He clearly takes home UDs. There is no reason for people to be over-thinking this.

Not going to throw thousands on it like V is going around asking people when they say GSP is a lock. But I'm playing GSP by UD all day. 4oz gloves anything CAN happen. But there is no reason to cap it as such. Condit will be on his back the whole fight....like everyone else. When they strike GSP will probably out-land him.

I am not a GSP fan at all. But I understand how effective he is. Always nice to back a guy as calculated as he is...

People bring up the Serra and Hughes fight as if they are any bit relevant to now. If people didn't notice...after the Serra fight is when he became the GSP we have today. He stopped taking risks and messing around. He took his training to new levels. He became a super wrestler. Since then he has hardly lost a round. Matt Hughes beat him when he was like 23 years old, when Matt was in his prime as one of the best WWs ever. That isn't in the least bit relevant now.

[PunisherIND]

I like Carmont in parlays. Lawler is really a can. A can with a name, from his brother and the TUF show.

While Lawler is busy falling down on purpose and wearing masks to weigh ins...guys like Carmont are dead serious and there to work. Carmont was MUCH bigger. More athletic. Better skills...

Lol Robbie lawler is tom lawlors brother?

[Rubber Guard]

Can we get some talk on the decent sized favorites of this card. AKA parlay material?

Which ones do people feel best about?

I really like Costas, but as a fan I may be wrong. I've seen a lot of credible guys take Ring here. I think Costas knocks his head off though.

Hominick is in a real favorable fight on paper. But who knows about his confidence. This is probably the best bet, but I'm not adding this anywhere. Just my own feeling.

Carmont I think wins this. Lawler is a goof, a former TUF fighter. Carmont isn't some new guy, he has a lot of experience. He is a HUGE 185er. He is very strong and has a good ground game. Training at tri-star alongside GSP while GSP is training for a fight on the same card can only be huge for Carmont. Lawler brings nothing other than a nothing to lose, brawler chance. But I imagine Carmont is wanting this to play out on the ground. He would be fine if they stood the whole time as well.

I know nothing f Menjivars opponent. All I know is Russian unknowns come in game even if they lose.

Cote is too high. That is a weird line.

[PunisherIND]

So what are the props people are liking for Condit ITD / GSP decision?

I think the gameplan to beating GSP is out there, and Condit just needs to rattle his confidence w/ those high risk moves. GSP insta-tapping to the Hughes armbar, how he handled Serra after the initial punch, freaking out over the Shields eyepoke. He fights scared and it's not going to be the most technical guy that beats him next, it'll be the guy who'll throw the kitchen sink at GSP, will fight unafraid of the TD, and will rattle GSP & finish him shortly after.


Having said that, I don't think ring rust will be a concern and will probably make GSP fight more conservatively than ever. Take out Condit's intangibles like gameness & killer instincts and on paper he's prime for a GSP steamrolling.


Condit ITD +350/ Condit TKO/KO +425
&
GSP points handicap -14.5 +240 / -9.5 +120
?


I know that leaves a big hole if Condit wins a single round clearly but I feel ok dismissing that, and going w/ a GSP handicap rather than GSP by dec (-120)


Could Jackson prepare Condit / know GSP's weaknesses well enough so that Condit can methodically win a few rounds?

Highly doubt gsp takes all 5 rounds.

And I personally like condit kotn as a hedge.

Would suck royally if georges taps to strikes again.

[Rubber Guard]

Lol Robbie lawler is tom lawlors brother?

Haha I guess not. I sort of always thought he was without ever really hearing it.

I need some sleep.

[PunisherIND]

Garza wins by submission +655
Hominick wins by TKO/KO +230

[PunisherIND]

Haha I guess not. I sort of always thought he was without ever really hearing it.

I need some sleep.

lol i forgive u rubber. its not like one is spelled lawler and the other lawlor.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Let's get the Siler war wagon going...

[eligibletackle]

I don't see where Condit is better. Condit prolly has a better chin. Other than that I don't see a single advantage. Flying knees and whirling derbys aren't going to beat GSP. Condit's striking power is vastly overrated. His BJJ game is overrated. And we all know his wrestling sucks. I think Condit will be game, and will stay in there. But GSP by decision is the play. Really GSP by UD is the play. Really is one of the easier prop bets out there. That is what he does. He clearly takes home UDs. There is no reason for people to be over-thinking this.

on paper I agree, and it should be GSP -750 or something, Condit welcomes TDs, doesn't have a jitz game good enough to sweep/submit GSP, and striking technique/strength is ultimately a wash. I just think Condit's intangibles that give him that fighters chance and make the current line fairly sharp. I'm in the school of thought that likes to make the distinction between fighter and athlete in MMA and I think this fight is the quintessential example.

[eligibletackle]

I think Lawler is being overlooked here. Carmont's TDD has been nothing special and Lawler can easily take this if he turns it into a snoozefest. Carmont has pretty great jitz but I look at the fighters that have taken Camont down, and then Lawler/Cote. Carmont was able to capitalize on Vemola & Cedenblad's "submission over position" type top game and flip it on them, whereas Lawler is more conservative. I agree he's a fool but if Lawler treats this like the Cote fight then I think there's tons of value w/ him

[Libert1ne]

Lawlor's a nice guy and a solid B grade fighter. Carmont is going to destroy him though. No value on Lawlor at current odds I don't think.

[NunyaBidness]

Let's get the Siler war wagon going...

To me he looks more like Vanessa Selbst.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Jackson isn't training either fighter.

I don't see where Condit is better. Condit prolly has a better chin. Other than that I don't see a single advantage. Flying knees and whirling derbys aren't going to beat GSP. Condit's striking power is vastly overrated. His BJJ game is overrated. And we all know his wrestling sucks. I think Condit will be game, and will stay in there. But GSP by decision is the play. Really GSP by UD is the play. Really is one of the easier prop bets out there. That is what he does. He clearly takes home UDs. There is no reason for people to be over-thinking this.

Not going to throw thousands on it like V is going around asking people when they say GSP is a lock. But I'm playing GSP by UD all day. 4oz gloves anything CAN happen. But there is no reason to cap it as such. Condit will be on his back the whole fight....like everyone else. When they strike GSP will probably out-land him.

I am not a GSP fan at all. But I understand how effective he is. Always nice to back a guy as calculated as he is...

People bring up the Serra and Hughes fight as if they are any bit relevant to now. If people didn't notice...after the Serra fight is when he became the GSP we have today. He stopped taking risks and messing around. He took his training to new levels. He became a super wrestler. Since then he has hardly lost a round. Matt Hughes beat him when he was like 23 years old, when Matt was in his prime as one of the best WWs ever. That isn't in the least bit relevant now.

agree 100% with everything and I haven't even bothered to look at most the gsp / condit talk but from what I did read I think people are thinking too deep into this... GSP by decision for sure, and I'll give a simple two cents on this fight and leave it here...

As much as I like carlos and as much as I REALLY want him to bust up george's pretty face, I think gsp is gonna grind carlos at will. While the rory mac fight was closer than people make it out to be, he grinded the shitt outta carlos and I def think gsp's wrestling, top game and overall grappling ability (not to mention athletic prowess and legit stand up fundamentals that go with it all) is a little better than rory's and I can see him replicating a similar style of that fight but much more conservative. Its gonna be typical gsp me thinks. I'd be all over the GSP by decision prop if I had prop options.

Nevertheless, WAR CONDIT!!!!!!!!!!! Really hope he pulls the upset (not that I wanna see people lose paper - just being honest.

[Vaughany]

Be interesting to see if Condit uses the Oblique kick to target GSP's knee. Perhaps he wont want to risk throwing too many kick of any sort due to likelihood of GSP countering them with a takedown, but against Hardy, Condit used the oblique-like kick a few times before knocking him out (obviously didnt have to worry about being taken down by Hardy tho).

[Vaughany]

someone talk me out of playing CP at -250...

I've seen people writing that ring's diverse striking aresenal is something CP hasn't faced... But while ring has a diverse arsenal, I'm not impressed by it, in fact I think his stand up has looked pretty 'meh' to be honest. Ring's cardio is also in question, as he's looked sluggish in the 3rd round in all 3 zuffa fights I saw.. I don't think he has the wrestling to take it down either, so I'm thinking CP will win a fairly one sided stand up affair to a UD... What am I missing?? I've seen some people on here picking ring but they didn't provide any breakdowns, would love to hear some arguments for ring, thanks.

I think the main argument is just based on Ring winning dodgy decisions and fact its in Canada. Philippou can have mental blocks at times as well and be a bit passive (Rivera fight) but I think he's got over that now that he's had a few fights in the UFC. I played Costas at -200 but probably wouldnt at worse than -225.

[Vaughany]

watching weigh ins. they just said chad griggs credits his rooster for this training camp.

[Rubber Guard]

Be interesting to see if Condit uses the Oblique kick to target GSP's knee. Perhaps he wont want to risk throwing too many kick of any sort due to likelihood of GSP countering them with a takedown, but against Hardy, Condit used the oblique-like kick a few times before knocking him out (obviously didnt have to worry about being taken down by Hardy tho).

After seeing GSP throw a million hard kicks on the pads with Tiger MT I feel pretty damn confident in his knee.

The moment he throws a kick GSP is rushing in and taking him down.

[Demonata]

Anybody else love the kid Riddle? Already he's looked impressive to me.

[Vaughany]

Anybody else love the kid Riddle? Already he's looked impressive to me.

Dude has been around for ages brah and looked ok in some fights and shitty in others

[feijao]

vaughany what are your plays?