UFC 154: St-Pierre Vs Condit(Nov 17th, 2012)

[PunisherIND]

ha I wouldnt spend to much time in ENgland! Not that many cool places...Italy, Germany, Eastern Europe lot more interesting! Where were u over here? London towwwn?

Yea man, my wife is from london so I didn't have much choice. She strung me along by promising I could make a detour to amsterdam but it never happened. Lol. 2 weeks with no buds, it was brutal. Next time I'm calling you. lol.

[NunyaBidness]

you ever been to belgium vaughany? That movie makes me want to take a trip out there. looks like a nice place to visit.

Nice place to visit? It's a fookin fairy tale, isn't it? All the ole buildings and whatnot.

Seriously, if you guys liked it, check out his new film, Seven Psychopaths, just as good, plus it has Tom Waits, the greatest human being in existance.

[NunyaBidness]

[Beelzebubzy]

Riddle -150
shadow boxing for the win

[MD]

Nice place to visit? It's a fookin fairy tale, isn't it? All the ole buildings and whatnot.

Seriously, if you guys liked it, check out his new film, Seven Psychopaths, just as good, plus it has Tom Waits, the greatest human being in existance.

AaAaaaAAaAaAAAAAaaaaAND THE EARTH DIED SCREAMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAN...

Ditto on both counts.

[Vaughany]

Yea man, my wife is from london so I didn't have much choice. She strung me along by promising I could make a detour to amsterdam but it never happened. Lol. 2 weeks with no buds, it was brutal. Next time I'm calling you. lol.

ha oh right, you married a butter-tooth Brit then! Yeap give me a shout next time bud...always ready to help out a fellow SBR bredren

[rocky16]

I've seen this fight several times. I remember both fighters being equally fast on the feet. I walked away with the conclusion that Garza is the faster one, because he was fast enough to catch a fast guy in a FLYING TRIANGLE, which is one of the hardest submissions to pull off.

Let's agree to disagree, you always find lame arguments

So they're equally fast but Garza is faster?

[brokenbrain]

Griggs/Diabate - what weight will this be at? 205?

[PunisherIND]

Nice place to visit? It's a fookin fairy tale, isn't it? All the ole buildings and whatnot.

Seriously, if you guys liked it, check out his new film, Seven Psychopaths, just as good, plus it has Tom Waits, the greatest human being in existance.

It sure looks like a fairy tale. first thing I would do is take a bite out of the life sized gingerbread houses!

Seven psychopaths is going on my short list.

[PunisherIND]

ha oh right, you married a butter-tooth Brit then! Yeap give me a shout next time bud...always ready to help out a fellow SBR bredren

Yessir, butter toothed and cockney accent, just how I like em.

[gabe]

So they're equally fast but Garza is faster?

They started off equally fast, but Garza proved to be faster. I remember insulting your intelligence before, so I'm not going to bother again. This doesn't surprise me.

[Rubber Guard]

Carmont by Dec. +341 seems like it is worth a play.

[Mercersux]

Griggs/Diabate - what weight will this be at? 205?

205. Griggs is dropping down...and he's going to get his ass kicked.

[PunisherIND]

St-Pierre wins by 5 rnd unanimous dec. +125

and a sprinkle on

Condit wins by 5 rnd split/majority dec. +2685

adding a little bit on condit KOTN +1000 at bovada

bovada has some exotic props for this event

How many PPV Buys will UFC 154 Have? o/u 800k

Will UFC 154 Sellout?

How Many Canadians will win at UFC 154? o/u 4.5 -- i played the over on this one. gsp, hominick, cote, carvalho should all win, and the winner of makdessi/stout will necessarily be canadian. then you have bocek (slight dog) and ring.

[omalley21]

adding a little bit on condit KOTN +1000 at bovada

bovada has some exotic props for this event

How many PPV Buys will UFC 154 Have? o/u 800k

Will UFC 154 Sellout?

How Many Canadians will win at UFC 154? o/u 4.5 -- i played the over on this one. gsp, hominick, cote, carvalho should all win, and the winner of makdessi/stout will necessarily be canadian. then you have bocek (slight dog) and ring.

Yup, I took Condit and hendricks KOTN, under 800k, sold out, over 4.5 canucks.

[brokenbrain]

205. Griggs is dropping down...and he's going to get his ass kicked.

Thx!

[PunisherIND]

Yup, I took Condit and hendricks KOTN, under 800k, sold out, over 4.5 canucks.

im leaning under 800k as well. might make a play on that.

you think its going to sell out? theres talk about a lot of available floor seats.

[Beelzebubzy]

I am playing
Hominick 3 round decision +175
Kampmann 3 round decision +304
Phillipou 3 round Decions +141

[Mercersux]

adding a little bit on condit KOTN +1000 at bovada

bovada has some exotic props for this event

How many PPV Buys will UFC 154 Have? o/u 800k

Will UFC 154 Sellout?

How Many Canadians will win at UFC 154? o/u 4.5 -- i played the over on this one. gsp, hominick, cote, carvalho should all win, and the winner of makdessi/stout will necessarily be canadian. then you have bocek (slight dog) and ring.

report on mmajunkie says that ufc 154 is nearing reported sellout. Whats that prop paying out anyways?

[NunyaBidness]

-170

[gabe]

I'm on griggs

[Imsmarterthanu]

Azamat Gashimov is worth a play at that value

[suicidekings]

Really? I mean I can see GSP wanting to come out and make an impression but I just see this type of game plan playing right into how Condit would want it to play out. I See GSP being able to implement his usual gameplan of getting the takedowns, control from on top, and just staying on the defensive to not allow Condit to make anything happen from bottom. I mean personally, I'd love to see Condit knockout GSP and shake up the welterweight division but GSP is champ and has been champ for so long for a reason. Guy is top flight when it comes to implementing a gameplan. Even if it is boring as hell. I just cannot see GSP finishing Condit via strikes. I'd lean more towards a submission if GSP is going to finish the fight within the distance but i still see a decision victory from gsp if anything.

How is this fight playing out like Condit wants? Condit's takedown defense is inferior and won't be a match for GSP if he decides to take it to the ground. That option will be there for GSP if he wants it at any time in the fight, but seeing as Condit's strength is undoubtedly submissions, and GSP > Condit in striking, there's no need for GSP to put the fight on the ground. Instead, he can keep his feet, take the center of the ring, and pick Condit apart with his striking. Condit has nothing to offer in terms of leg kicks and GSP's TDD is excellent, so I just don't see a way for Condit to take this fight to the ground on his terms.

GSP will be more than happy to keep the fight standing up and should be able to feed Condit a steady diet of leg kicks while keeping the hands moving to keep him honest. The only reason this line is so short is because of the long layoff GSP has had, but this is not a good matchup for Condit, and both fighters know it. Don't be surprised if we see this fight end inside three rounds, with an authoritative TKO from GSP.

[Mercersux]

I'm on griggs

Care to explain...? I'm leaning towards Diabate but would love to hear a case made for Griggs.

[Vaughany]

I'll be on Griggs if his line improves some more. He is pretty shitty but he's a grinder and gritty which may be enough to drag Diabate to the mat and work some ground and pound. Diabate should in theory light him up on the feet tho

[Mercersux]

I see this fight differently. I think it's very much in GSP's best interest to prove without a shadow of a doubt that he's truly back. Maybe he won't press for an early finish, but I expect him to try to make an impression.

How do you think GSP would be doing this? I don't think he is a better striker than Condit. I'd say on par with Condit, but that's stretching it. I do agree that GSP's takedowns will be available to him most of the fight because He's that good at it and Condit takedown defense is poor. I think if GSP goes this route he really has no choice but to be conservative. If he tries to open up with GnP he'll open himself up to Condit who can be very active from the bottom. I think that's up to GSP. I think George is skilled enough from top control and implementing his defense to just smother Condit. Even if GSP wanted to finish him, I don't think he could standing, i don't think he could tko Condit on the ground, and the only possible way i see GSP finishing inside the distance is submission. I just see Condit being skilled enough in his submission defense to not allow this to happen. If GSP takes Condit down continuously, controls him from top, and this constitutes GSP proving w/o a shadow of a doubt he is truly back, then you sir couldn't be more right. I for one don't.

[Vaughany]

I have no doubt that GSP's gameplan is going to be based on jabbing, throwing the odd leg kick and then getting the takedown to steal rounds and end up on top. Zahabi has said in numerous interviews that Condit's only weakness is wrestling so I think it's pretty clear that the main strategy is going to be takedowns and top-control. There is very little chance IMO that GSP comes back from a serious injury, long layoff and against a top fighter and takes any chances. Only way he finishes IMO is a late stoppage due to cuts from gnp or from a rear-naked choke or armbar during a scramble. GSP is saying he wants to finish more fights and all that jazz...be interesting to see if he does take any chances during a scramble which will inevitably happen at times as Carlos wont just lie there on his back like a turtle, or whether he just focuses on control and position (I'd lean towards the latter).

[Thor4140]

I have no doubt that GSP's gameplan is going to be based on jabbing, throwing the odd leg kick and then getting the takedown to steal rounds and end up on top. Zahabi has said in numerous interviews that Condit's only weakness is wrestling so I think it's pretty clear that the main strategy is going to be takedowns and top-control. There is very little chance IMO that GSP comes back from a serious injury, long layoff and against a top fighter and takes any chances. Only way he finishes IMO is a late stoppage due to cuts from gnp or from a rear-naked choke or armbar during a scramble. GSP is saying he wants to finish more fights and all that jazz...be interesting to see if he does take any chances during a scramble which will inevitably happen at times as Carlos wont just lie there on his back like a turtle, or whether he just focuses on control and position (I'd lean towards the latter).

Basically what i see. what is amazing tho is how people underrate GSP striking because of the Serra fight. He has showed he is leaps and bounds more evolved than that fight. The Hardy fight you could still tell how he was still the guy intimidated on his feet. This isn't the same guy. We will see more striking from him but overall we will see the game-plan u laid out. I think a big deal in this fight could be the ref. Do we get some standups or does the crowd just intimidate the ref and he lets GSP lay the full five? Condit moves a lot on his back which could fool the ref into thinking they are constantly working. If the ref who did the last Kongo/Jordan fight (Yves Lavigneis) is reffing, the one who let the two fighters just lay on the ropes for the full five, GSP is a shoe-in. Quick stand-ups? Condit has a chance.

[gabe]

Care to explain...? I'm leaning towards Diabate but would love to hear a case made for Griggs.

Diabate gasses kinda early

[Crassus]

Sakara at +230? I know Cote hits hard and is iron-chinned but Sakara is a beast so long as he isn't wrestled too bad.

[Rubber Guard]

Sakara at +230? I know Cote hits hard and is iron-chinned but Sakara is a beast so long as he isn't wrestled too bad.

His chin isn't beastly. He would love it if he could work BJJ vs. Cote.

I think the line is set as is because they just expect Cote's iron chin to outlast Sakara's terrible chin.

[Crassus]

His chin isn't beastly. He would love it if he could work BJJ vs. Cote.

I think the line is set as is because they just expect Cote's iron chin to outlast Sakara's terrible chin.

I don't think Sakara has a "terrible" chin. It's not a particularly great chin, but i mean he's got good heart and reflexes. He's only been knocked out by dudes where it's not really THAT embarrassing to be knocked out by them.

Do you think Sakara has the BJJ game to compete to Cote?

Also, gonna be in Montreal for the day on friday, worth going to the weigh-in?

[Rubber Guard]

I think Sakara's BJJ game is much better than Cote's. Not sure if it is good enough to actually pull off a sub from bottom or anything.

Sakara has good hands as well.

But I've always considered his chin to be pretty bad and only getting worse...Cote is one of those guys that it isn't embarrassing to get KO'd by. He hits fairly hard, even if he is an average fighter at best.

Maybe the fight will go differently, but most of Sakara's fights are exchanges in the middle of the cage. I think it is only a matter of time until he gets hit too hard and falls down.

Never been to an event let alone a weigh in. I bet it will be packed. I love watching them on TV. Not sure what sort of things they have? Autograph session? I know they usually have a good Q&A session beforehand with a fighter not on the card. I'd go to weigh ins unless it was a hassle.

[Rubber Guard]

Not that the line is correct. That is a fairly big line. But I think it is due to the stylistic matchup of hard hitter/great chin vs. good hands/bad chin. Might be worth a play but Sakara's chin is always an iffy bet.

[Vaughany]

I don't think Sakara has a "terrible" chin. It's not a particularly great chin, but i mean he's got good heart and reflexes. He's only been knocked out by dudes where it's not really THAT embarrassing to be knocked out by them.

Do you think Sakara has the BJJ game to compete to Cote?

Also, gonna be in Montreal for the day on friday, worth going to the weigh-in?

Agreed, Sakara doesnt have a "glass" chin but it certainly isnt strong and won't be able to take too many punches from Cote! He has a lot of heart as you say and I believe he is better than Cote in most areas...grappling and striking. But the combination of questionable chin and Cote's power balances all that out. I'm looking at playing Sakara by decision and Cote TKO/KO if odds are reasonable on each