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Riddle -150
shadow boxing for the winComment -
Griggs/Diabate - what weight will this be at? 205?Comment -
Carmont by Dec. +341 seems like it is worth a play.Comment -
adding a little bit on condit KOTN +1000 at bovada
bovada has some exotic props for this event
How many PPV Buys will UFC 154 Have? o/u 800k
Will UFC 154 Sellout?
How Many Canadians will win at UFC 154? o/u 4.5 -- i played the over on this one. gsp, hominick, cote, carvalho should all win, and the winner of makdessi/stout will necessarily be canadian. then you have bocek (slight dog) and ring.Comment -
I am playing
Hominick 3 round decision +175
Kampmann 3 round decision +304
Phillipou 3 round Decions +141Comment -
-170Comment -
I'm on griggsComment -
Azamat Gashimov is worth a play at that valueComment -
How is this fight playing out like Condit wants? Condit's takedown defense is inferior and won't be a match for GSP if he decides to take it to the ground. That option will be there for GSP if he wants it at any time in the fight, but seeing as Condit's strength is undoubtedly submissions, and GSP > Condit in striking, there's no need for GSP to put the fight on the ground. Instead, he can keep his feet, take the center of the ring, and pick Condit apart with his striking. Condit has nothing to offer in terms of leg kicks and GSP's TDD is excellent, so I just don't see a way for Condit to take this fight to the ground on his terms.
GSP will be more than happy to keep the fight standing up and should be able to feed Condit a steady diet of leg kicks while keeping the hands moving to keep him honest. The only reason this line is so short is because of the long layoff GSP has had, but this is not a good matchup for Condit, and both fighters know it. Don't be surprised if we see this fight end inside three rounds, with an authoritative TKO from GSP.Comment -
I'll be on Griggs if his line improves some more. He is pretty shitty but he's a grinder and gritty which may be enough to drag Diabate to the mat and work some ground and pound. Diabate should in theory light him up on the feet thoComment -
How do you think GSP would be doing this? I don't think he is a better striker than Condit. I'd say on par with Condit, but that's stretching it. I do agree that GSP's takedowns will be available to him most of the fight because He's that good at it and Condit takedown defense is poor. I think if GSP goes this route he really has no choice but to be conservative. If he tries to open up with GnP he'll open himself up to Condit who can be very active from the bottom. I think that's up to GSP. I think George is skilled enough from top control and implementing his defense to just smother Condit. Even if GSP wanted to finish him, I don't think he could standing, i don't think he could tko Condit on the ground, and the only possible way i see GSP finishing inside the distance is submission. I just see Condit being skilled enough in his submission defense to not allow this to happen. If GSP takes Condit down continuously, controls him from top, and this constitutes GSP proving w/o a shadow of a doubt he is truly back, then you sir couldn't be more right. I for one don't.Comment -
I have no doubt that GSP's gameplan is going to be based on jabbing, throwing the odd leg kick and then getting the takedown to steal rounds and end up on top. Zahabi has said in numerous interviews that Condit's only weakness is wrestling so I think it's pretty clear that the main strategy is going to be takedowns and top-control. There is very little chance IMO that GSP comes back from a serious injury, long layoff and against a top fighter and takes any chances. Only way he finishes IMO is a late stoppage due to cuts from gnp or from a rear-naked choke or armbar during a scramble. GSP is saying he wants to finish more fights and all that jazz...be interesting to see if he does take any chances during a scramble which will inevitably happen at times as Carlos wont just lie there on his back like a turtle, or whether he just focuses on control and position (I'd lean towards the latter).Comment -
Basically what i see. what is amazing tho is how people underrate GSP striking because of the Serra fight. He has showed he is leaps and bounds more evolved than that fight. The Hardy fight you could still tell how he was still the guy intimidated on his feet. This isn't the same guy. We will see more striking from him but overall we will see the game-plan u laid out. I think a big deal in this fight could be the ref. Do we get some standups or does the crowd just intimidate the ref and he lets GSP lay the full five? Condit moves a lot on his back which could fool the ref into thinking they are constantly working. If the ref who did the last Kongo/Jordan fight (Yves Lavigneis) is reffing, the one who let the two fighters just lay on the ropes for the full five, GSP is a shoe-in. Quick stand-ups? Condit has a chance.Comment -
Sakara at +230? I know Cote hits hard and is iron-chinned but Sakara is a beast so long as he isn't wrestled too bad.Comment -
I don't think Sakara has a "terrible" chin. It's not a particularly great chin, but i mean he's got good heart and reflexes. He's only been knocked out by dudes where it's not really THAT embarrassing to be knocked out by them.
Do you think Sakara has the BJJ game to compete to Cote?
Also, gonna be in Montreal for the day on friday, worth going to the weigh-in?Comment -
I think Sakara's BJJ game is much better than Cote's. Not sure if it is good enough to actually pull off a sub from bottom or anything.
Sakara has good hands as well.
But I've always considered his chin to be pretty bad and only getting worse...Cote is one of those guys that it isn't embarrassing to get KO'd by. He hits fairly hard, even if he is an average fighter at best.
Maybe the fight will go differently, but most of Sakara's fights are exchanges in the middle of the cage. I think it is only a matter of time until he gets hit too hard and falls down.
Never been to an event let alone a weigh in. I bet it will be packed. I love watching them on TV. Not sure what sort of things they have? Autograph session? I know they usually have a good Q&A session beforehand with a fighter not on the card. I'd go to weigh ins unless it was a hassle.Comment -
Not that the line is correct. That is a fairly big line. But I think it is due to the stylistic matchup of hard hitter/great chin vs. good hands/bad chin. Might be worth a play but Sakara's chin is always an iffy bet.Comment -
Agreed, Sakara doesnt have a "glass" chin but it certainly isnt strong and won't be able to take too many punches from Cote! He has a lot of heart as you say and I believe he is better than Cote in most areas...grappling and striking. But the combination of questionable chin and Cote's power balances all that out. I'm looking at playing Sakara by decision and Cote TKO/KO if odds are reasonable on eachComment
Yeap give me a shout next time bud...always ready to help out a fellow SBR bredren
