Ufc 153

[GigaOuts]

I don't understand where those odd come from regarding BJ Penn vs Rory MacDonald and Jon Fitch vs Eric Silva. If I recall the BJ Penn vs Jon Fitch match up, it is a majority draw. If Penn didn't gass in the the 3rd round some might score it 30-27 for Penn.

Now if you make a poll who wins between Eric Silva vs Rory MacDonald, I willing to bet the poll likely close to dead even or no more than 55% favor to either fighter. So if public perceive BJ Penn is same level as Jon Fitch, and Rory MacDonald is also in the same level as Eric Silva. Why is the odd open +230/-270 in favor of Rory MacDonald and Eric Silva vs Jon Fitch open dead even -120/-120. What am I missing? Because PJ Penn announce his retirement? PJ Penn looks out of shape? Rory demolish Che Mills in the 2nd round? How come it is not that a big deal when Eric Silva submitted the Spaniard in the first round, and the Spaniard never been submit before in his whole mma career. If people believe Jon Fitch have a unbelievable suffocate top game, than how can 34yr Fitch suffocate a beast like Eric Silva if he can't even suffocate 32yr BJ Penn for the first 2 round when BJ Penn is only 5'9 and a natural 155 lber. Eric is 5'11 likely weight 185-190lbs at fight time with incredible athleticism. Eric Silva is a f@cking beast against a 34yr old who constantly get sideline by injuries, the odd is dead even? Come on!

[TheCalculator]

Giga -- as many would say you're doing "MMA math". If guy A beats guy B, and guy B beats guy C... then surely guy A can beat guy C. If you know anything about fighting this is a fallacy.

Sometimes fighters are just BAD MATCH UPS against certain fighters. I think Fitch is a bad match up for Silva. Fitch can easily ride him for 3 rounds if Silva doesn't destroy him in the first 3 to 5 minutes.

As Sonnen said, there's 2 types of fighters:

1. Those who go for the kill.

2. Those who fight for 3 (or 5) rounds.

Those who go for the kill -- if they miss and fail... they've "blown their loads" and now they're at a serious disadvantage. A good example of this is the 1st fight with Edgar and Maynard. Maynard went for the kill and failed and his juice was gone.

I think there's a VERY good chance that this will happen on Saturday. Silva will go for the kill. And I think Fitch will survive and win round 2 and 3. I just don't trust the judging (since it's in Brazil) and for that reason, I probably won't bet it.

[GigaOuts]

Giga -- as many would say you're doing "MMA math". If guy A beats guy B, and guy B beats guy C... then surely guy A can beat guy C. If you know anything about fighting this is a fallacy.

Sometimes fighters are just BAD MATCH UPS against certain fighters. I think Fitch is a bad match up for Silva. Fitch can easily ride him for 3 rounds if Silva doesn't destroy him in the first 3 to 5 minutes.

As Sonnen said, there's 2 types of fighters:

1. Those who go for the kill.

2. Those who fight for 3 (or 5) rounds.

Those who go for the kill -- if they miss and fail... they've "blown their loads" and now they're at a serious disadvantage. A good example of this is the 1st fight with Edgar and Maynard. Maynard went for the kill and failed and his juice was gone.

I think there's a VERY good chance that this will happen on Saturday. Silva will go for the kill. And I think Fitch will survive and win round 2 and 3. I just don't trust the judging (since it's in Brazil) and for that reason, I probably won't bet it.

Yes very true but Frankie Edgar is a young 28yr who survive the onslaught but Fitch is a 34yr with many injuries. Fitch will likely goes light out before the ref could stop it. I think any tough younger fighter likely survive (recover) or even avoid the leaping left hook from Hendrick from that distant. Fitch is too slow to re-act to that hook, we likely watching a very slow tenacity fighter vs a very explosive ww ever. Can't wait for the fight to happen, I hope no one pull out 2 days from the fight.

[Vaughany]

ufc-153: Fx prelims -$250


5:15 pm
24099
24100

sam sicilia
rony "jason" mariano bezerra

pk+205
pk-275




5:15 pm
24107
24108

francisco trinaldo
gleison tibau



pk+125
pk-155





5:15 pm
24111
24112

joey gambino
diego brandao

pk+140
pk-170



3:30 pm
24115
24116

renee forte
sergio moraes

pk+185
pk-245






ufc-153: Facebook prelims -$250


3:30 pm
24119
24120

chris camozzi
luiz cane

pk+140
pk-170









3:30 pm
24123
24124

cristiano marcello
reza madadi



pk+170
pk-230

[Crassus]

You penetrate up Vaughany.

[Vaughany]

ha dunno what happened there

[Beelzebubzy]

Thought camozxi would open as a bigger dog

hoping money pours in on brandao

[NunyaBidness]

[Vaughany]

Thought camozxi would open as a bigger dog

hoping money pours in on brandao

yeah I thought he'd be about that or +160, but either way, I expect people will bet on Cane so if you like Camozzi you're in a good position either way. I guess oddsmakers (in this case Nick) are not falling for the Banha hype as much anymore after that Nedkov loss where he almost jumped out the octagon after getting tagged! IMO Camozzi is a pretty horrible fight to have when making your debut at MW and coming off a long layoff with injuries. I'll be playing Camozzi as I think there is value at +125 or better

[NunyaBidness]

...

[NunyaBidness]

yeah I thought he'd be about that or +160, but either way, I expect people will bet on Cane so if you like Camozzi you're in a good position either way. I guess oddsmakers (in this case Nick) are not falling for the Banha hype as much anymore after that Nedkov loss where he almost jumped out the octagon after getting tagged! IMO Camozzi is a pretty horrible fight to have when making your debut at MW and coming off a long layoff with injuries. I'll be playing Camozzi as I think there is value at +125 or better

How does Camozzi win outside of a KO, though? Granted Cane's chin isn't great, but all his ko's are by legit power guys which I'm not sure if Camozzi has that kind of power. Camozzi isn't going to get him down (or likely even try), so I think he has trouble winning a decision in Brazil against a Brazilian with better (looking) standup. I just can't find a scenario for Camozzi to pull it off outside of a KO.

[Vaughany]

How does Camozzi win outside of a KO, though? Granted Cane's chin isn't great, but all his ko's are by legit power guys which I'm not sure if Camozzi has that kind of power. Camozzi isn't going to get him down (or likely even try), so I think he has trouble winning a decision in Brazil against a Brazilian with better (looking) standup. I just can't find a scenario for Camozzi to pull it off outside of a KO.

Yep, it's risky because of the home advantage, but Camozzi has a reasonably high volume of striking for a MW and he gets stronger as the fight progresses so I'm basically counting on Cane fading due to lay-off and weight-cut combined with Camozzi's ability to pour it on later on in fights to be the difference. Cane also didnt show the best cardio in the one fight that has gone the distance against Cantwell, but that is understandable seeing as he'd only been past the first round once in his career. Then all of his fights since then have ended in first round so it's been 3 and a half years since he's been past the first round in a fight and it's going to be 14 months since his last fight. I actually think Camozzi will land a knee and finish him by TKO at some point, but maybe I'm under-estimating how good Cane really is and perhaps exaggerating how bad his defense is

[NunyaBidness]

Good thinking, I hadn't considered the late fade angle. Line is moving against me as well.

[PunisherIND]

just read that bonnar's wife is going to give birth at any moment (the ufc has a jet on standby to get bonnar straight home after the fight). this cant be a good thing, right? how is dude going to focus on the task at hand?

i originally felt the value was on fight goes distance, but im having second thoughts. bonnar is a tough sob, but if he gets roughed up in round 1, i could see him packing it in and deciding to fly home to baby. dont think he wants baby to see him with a hominick-hematoma.

[Vaughany]

ha yeah, its Forrest in Brazil before Shogun all over again! Difference is tho Forrest's wife was literally in labour wasnt she? Bonnar's wife isnt due for a month or so I thought I read?

[Thor4140]

u should be 0-3, diaz was robbed

i was gonna say something but i think Defact is right. Nobody could be this blind. This has to be an act. I would hate to see what u think is a close fight.

[Thor4140]

i just can't bet the Story Maia fight. Both incredible stupid fighters who's game plans are brutal. Maia did drop the weight last fight and fought one of his more intelligent fights. Maia likes to slug it out and will get killed. Story will prolly try to take Maia down and get killed. U just don't know with these two egg heads. Same with Nog and Herman. Nog wins but does his chin hold up? I would be scared to death if Herman got anywhere close to it. Herman has to know this is it for himself if he loses but Herman is a stiff and will prolly just fight for the check.

[Thor4140]

Marcello is another great ground guy who loves to bang with what might be the highest held chin i ever saw. Is this guy any good he is fighting? Looks like he is a ground fighter also

[Beelzebubzy]

Maia went to grapple with Kim. Maybe he is showing or wanting to grapple again.

[gabe]

i was gonna say something but i think Defact is right. Nobody could be this blind. This has to be an act. I would hate to see what u think is a close fight.

Edgar vs Bendo... They were both fighting... You can't have a close fight when your opponent is running from you the entire fight, you dumb momo

[Rubber Guard]

i just can't bet the Story Maia fight. Both incredible stupid fighters who's game plans are brutal. Maia did drop the weight last fight and fought one of his more intelligent fights. Maia likes to slug it out and will get killed. Story will prolly try to take Maia down and get killed. U just don't know with these two egg heads. Same with Nog and Herman. Nog wins but does his chin hold up? I would be scared to death if Herman got anywhere close to it. Herman has to know this is it for himself if he loses but Herman is a stiff and will prolly just fight for the check.

I don't really think Story can "kill" anyone standing.

I think Maia has a decent shot at fighting to his strength here. He will like to get the sub win in Brazil. He can get Story to the ground.

I think Maia is the right side. He fought for a title. He took down and beat Sonnen. Story is just some guy who beat a crappy Thiago Alves and got a bunch of credit. He is an average fighter with no finishing skills.

[Vaughany]

Maia went to grapple with Kim. Maybe he is showing or wanting to grapple again.

Well I guess the whole idea of cutting to WW was so that he is now one of the bigger guys so if I was him I'd be wanting to use my grappling combined with new size advantage. Have a size advantage isnt as helpful if you are just a stand-up fighter

[PunisherIND]

ha yeah, its Forrest in Brazil before Shogun all over again! Difference is tho Forrest's wife was literally in labour wasnt she? Bonnar's wife isnt due for a month or so I thought I read?

ahh you are right, she is due at the end of the month, so about 2 weeks after the fight.

[Vaughany]

Still, it's gonna be on his mind

[PunisherIND]

Still, it's gonna be on his mind

for sure. even 2 weeks away, she can still go into labor. no way his mind is going to be right for this fight.

[Rubber Guard]

for sure. even 2 weeks away, she can still go into labor. no way his mind is going to be right for this fight.

You never saw Rocky II?

[PunisherIND]

You never saw Rocky II?

lmao


good one!

[Grabaka]

for sure. even 2 weeks away, she can still go into labor. no way his mind is going to be right for this fight.

But what about the new baby theory? V, how was that?
Actually im not sold on your thoughts....it will affect him but we dont know if it will be in a positive or a negative way.

[Vaughany]

ha yeah the new baby theory is legit! But I think it is stronger when they have just had a baby rather than just before!

[Grabaka]

ha yeah the new baby theory is legit! But I think it is stronger when they have just had a baby rather than just before!

Ahh you refering to the party hard before baby comes theory? Also pretty valid.

[PunisherIND]

But what about the new baby theory? V, how was that?
Actually im not sold on your thoughts....it will affect him but we dont know if it will be in a positive or a negative way.

i personally think anything non-fight related that is preoccupying a fighter can only be a negative. even if the thing is unquestionably a positive thing, he should be concentrating on the fight alone.

[Grabaka]

Peace and love fellas
What about Madadi? i feel like he should get an easy win and its a cool play for parlays since i dont trut the guy to go big.

[PunisherIND]

i personally think anything non-fight related that is preoccupying a fighter can only be a negative. even if the thing is unquestionably a positive thing, he should be concentrating on the fight alone.

i should add, this isnt to say bonnar isnt disciplined enough to focus solely on the fight, but rather, it would be extremely difficult not to keep his mind on his wife/baby.

have to stay on top of this story. if his wife's water breaks before the fight, im going huge on anderson ITD.

[Vaughany]

Peace and love fellas
What about Madadi? i feel like he should get an easy win and its a cool play for parlays since i dont trut the guy to go big.

yeah he should win...BJ got a great line on him on unibet where he was the underdog at close to evens or sumin!

[PunisherIND]

Peace and love fellas

fukk you.

What about Madadi? i feel like he should get an easy win and its a cool play for parlays since i dont trut the guy to go big.

agree with this, but line is a little too steep for me. would like to get sub -200.. i think it could get there by fight night.