MLB - Thursday, 9/13/12

LT Profits · 09-13-12, 11:15 AM

MLB Triple Play

Originally posted by LT Profits

1 MLB Play Thursday

Twins -103 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 327-295-24, +42.48

Adding:

Yankees / Red Sox UNDER 9.5 -115 (5 Dimes)
Indians +205 (Bookmaker)

MLB Card complete

altieriflyers · 09-13-12, 11:34 AM

LT, what am I missing in the Indians game? Why are you so confident? McAllister is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and .265 opponents batting average, has fallen off along with this whole Cleveland team, going 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA in 6 August starts and 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in his first two September starts. He pitched at home against the Rangers September 2nd where he gave up 11 hits and 7 earned runs in just 5 innings of work. Holland is 10-6 on the season with a 4.59 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .233 opponents batting average. 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts, which includes a start vs Cleveland where he went 7 innings giving up 2 earned runs. McAllister and Holland’s recent starts vs these opposing teams actually came against each other, where Texas won 8-3. The Indians are an awful 12-40 in their last 52 games overall after being in a divisional race. They are also 13-38 in their last 51 road games, 16-35 in their last 51 games following a loss, 0-5 in McAllister’s last 5 starts, and 1-8 in their last 9 games vs left handed starters. The Rangers are 58-27 in their last 85 home games, 4-1 in their last 5 as favorites of -201 or more, and 22-8 in their last 30 games as a home favorite of -201 or more. They are also 5-1 in Holland’s last 6 starts, and 13-3 in his last 16 starts when he has had 5 days of rest. Texas is 12-2 in their last 14 meetings in Texas, 23-6 in their last 29 meetings overall, and 5-0 in Holland’s last 5 starts vs the Indians. I was very confident going Rangers RL but now I don´t know because I have a great respect for your capping abilities and you are going with the tribe.

BamaCBass · 09-13-12, 12:50 PM

LT, I noticed that you rarely ever play run lines. I take it you feel they lose their "value"? Say Indians +1.5?

scottsins · 09-13-12, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by altieriflyers

LT, what am I missing in the Indians game? Why are you so confident? McAllister is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and .265 opponents batting average, has fallen off along with this whole Cleveland team, going 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA in 6 August starts and 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in his first two September starts. He pitched at home against the Rangers September 2nd where he gave up 11 hits and 7 earned runs in just 5 innings of work. Holland is 10-6 on the season with a 4.59 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .233 opponents batting average. 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts, which includes a start vs Cleveland where he went 7 innings giving up 2 earned runs. McAllister and Holland’s recent starts vs these opposing teams actually came against each other, where Texas won 8-3. The Indians are an awful 12-40 in their last 52 games overall after being in a divisional race. They are also 13-38 in their last 51 road games, 16-35 in their last 51 games following a loss, 0-5 in McAllister’s last 5 starts, and 1-8 in their last 9 games vs left handed starters. The Rangers are 58-27 in their last 85 home games, 4-1 in their last 5 as favorites of -201 or more, and 22-8 in their last 30 games as a home favorite of -201 or more. They are also 5-1 in Holland’s last 6 starts, and 13-3 in his last 16 starts when he has had 5 days of rest. Texas is 12-2 in their last 14 meetings in Texas, 23-6 in their last 29 meetings overall, and 5-0 in Holland’s last 5 starts vs the Indians. I was very confident going Rangers RL but now I don´t know because I have a great respect for your capping abilities and you are going with the tribe.

LT is not so confident that the Indians win the game. He may only have them at 35% likely to win, or even less. however, depending on the %, the ML either matches or not. I forget what the conversion is, but it's definitely a value bet, according to his system/analysis.

altieriflyers · 09-13-12, 12:59 PM

OK, I see, apreciate it scottsins.

LT Profits · 09-13-12, 01:11 PM

Originally posted by altieriflyers

LT, what am I missing in the Indians game? Why are you so confident? McAllister is 5-7 with a 4.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and .265 opponents batting average, has fallen off along with this whole Cleveland team, going 1-3 with a 5.06 ERA in 6 August starts and 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in his first two September starts. He pitched at home against the Rangers September 2nd where he gave up 11 hits and 7 earned runs in just 5 innings of work. Holland is 10-6 on the season with a 4.59 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .233 opponents batting average. 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last three starts, which includes a start vs Cleveland where he went 7 innings giving up 2 earned runs. McAllister and Holland’s recent starts vs these opposing teams actually came against each other, where Texas won 8-3. The Indians are an awful 12-40 in their last 52 games overall after being in a divisional race. They are also 13-38 in their last 51 road games, 16-35 in their last 51 games following a loss, 0-5 in McAllister’s last 5 starts, and 1-8 in their last 9 games vs left handed starters. The Rangers are 58-27 in their last 85 home games, 4-1 in their last 5 as favorites of -201 or more, and 22-8 in their last 30 games as a home favorite of -201 or more. They are also 5-1 in Holland’s last 6 starts, and 13-3 in his last 16 starts when he has had 5 days of rest. Texas is 12-2 in their last 14 meetings in Texas, 23-6 in their last 29 meetings overall, and 5-0 in Holland’s last 5 starts vs the Indians. I was very confident going Rangers RL but now I don´t know because I have a great respect for your capping abilities and you are going with the tribe.

Originally posted by scottsins

LT is not so confident that the Indians win the game. He may only have them at 35% likely to win, or even less. however, depending on the %, the ML either matches or not. I forget what the conversion is, but it's definitely a value bet, according to his system/analysis.

LT Profits · 09-13-12, 01:13 PM

Originally posted by BamaCBass

I take it you feel they lose their "value"? Say Indians +1.5?

In most cases yes.

altieriflyers · 09-13-12, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

OK

fitguy67 · 09-13-12, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by scottsins

LT is not so confident that the Indians win the game. He may only have them at 35% likely to win, or even less. however, depending on the %, the ML either matches or not. I forget what the conversion is, but it's definitely a value bet, according to his system/analysis.

just to fill in the numerical details...book odds of +205 mean u'd break even if u hit this bet 32.78688% (1/decimal odds=1/3.05) of the time...but if your analysis deems things slightly less dismal for the Indians (say the 35% mentioned)...then there's perceived value...6.75001% of value to be ridiculously-retentive with the decimals, for the sake of clarity...that's 100%-(35%/32.78688%)

with dogs like this there's one important rider...to compensate for the lower probability of success that THIS PARTICULAR case carries (even tho' OVER THE LONG TERM it is definitely a perceived +ev play)...we bet it TO WIN (just as we're used to doing with all of our faves), meaning we take advantage of the fat payout, as it allows us to risk less (here just 0.4878 units) in pursuit of the identical 1 unit that we'd be after if this were a minus-odds fave play

someone mentioned this point in yesterday's MLB thread...even tho' LT uses the standard american hybrid system (dogs to risk/faves to win) to grade his plays...in reality, they're better played as everything TO WIN...

so yes, the bet will more likely lose than win (the book "feels" they've got a 32.8% chance, we feel it's a worthwhile-bit above that)...but if we get in the habit of betting WITH our perceived value (and our perception proves to be reasonably accurate over the long haul)...to the extent that our actual win rate on such plays outpaces their book-implied odds...units over time accumulate

betting everything TO WIN helps smooth out the ride cuz it lessens the units-eroded during losing streaks (which are proportionately more likely to extend to any given length than minus-money fave plays...which is why it's ok to risk proportionately more for those BETS in pursuit of the exact-same 1-unit target)...
______________________

LT, this is the way i have come to interpret your approach...if i'm off base here, let me know

LT Profits · 09-13-12, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

just to fill in the numerical details...book odds of +205 mean u'd break even if u hit this bet 32.78688% (1/decimal odds=1/3.05) of the time...but if your analysis deems things slightly less dismal for the Indians (say the 35% mentioned)...then there's perceived value...6.75001% of value to be ridiculously-retentive with the decimals, for the sake of clarity...that's 100%-(35%/32.78688%)

with dogs like this there's one important rider...to compensate for the lower probability of success that THIS PARTICULAR case carries (even tho' OVER THE LONG TERM it is definitely a perceived +ev play)...we bet it TO WIN (just as we're used to doing with all of our faves), meaning we take advantage of the fat payout, as it allows us to risk less (here just 0.4878 units) in pursuit of the identical 1 unit that we'd be after if this were a minus-odds dog play

someone mentioned this point in yesterday's MLB thread...even tho' LT grades uses the standard american hybrid system (dogs to risk/faves to win) to grade his plays...in reality, they're better played as everything TO WIN...

so yes, the bet will more likely lose than win (the book "feels" they've got a 32.8% chance, we feel it's a worthwhile-bit above that)...but if we get in the habit of betting WITH our perceived value (and our perception proves to be reasonably accurate over the long haul)...to the extent that our actual win rate on such plays outpaces their book-implied odds...units over time accumulate

betting everything TO WIN helps smooth out the ride cuz it lessens the units-eroded during losing streaks (which are proportionately more likely to extend to any given length than minus-money fave plays...which is why it's ok to risk more for those BETS in pursuit of the exact-same 1-unit target)...
______________________

LT, this is the way i have come to interpret your approach...if i'm off base here, let me know

Yes, you are spot on!

I could not have said it better myself (or maybe I did somewhere along the line

)

altieriflyers · 09-13-12, 02:55 PM

Thank you fitguy.

Only1Oklahoma · 09-13-12, 03:09 PM

What's your angle on the twins?

I just can't find anything that favors them. MAYBE that Mendoza is starting, but the Twins have never won a game with Hendriks and his 6.2 ERA on the mound.

altieriflyers · 09-13-12, 03:12 PM

He posted this today:

mitch51 · 09-13-12, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Good job

rumnblack · 09-13-12, 03:48 PM

Good luck.

alanlazar · 09-13-12, 06:18 PM

No Mauer tonight

alanlazar · 09-13-12, 06:20 PM

Link Not Working - Removed-)

Joe D. 416 · 09-13-12, 08:49 PM

Twins suck dick

fitguy67 · 09-13-12, 10:06 PM

Originally posted by Joe D. 416

Twins suck dick

any chance you could share compelling in-depth analysis such as this BEFORE the game?...so that lesser minds might also make profitable use of your unique perspective...

i'm sure with a little effort, we in the dark could have been made to understand the subtle-yet-powerful logic you've obviously applied to this game...that we just can't quite grasp fully, given only your "three-word summary"

BTW, things seem to have evolved into "so do the royals"...then "even worse than the twins" (notice the complexity rising from three, to four, finally five whole words)...developments of which you ALSO chose to keep from us...

please reveal the more of your SUKmetric methodology...

fitguy67 · 09-13-12, 10:41 PM

LT, congrats on your second straight SWEEP (3-0 in MLB, and 1-0 in CF, by my accounting)...

especially nice to have the CLE and MIN games turn out like that...

restores your faith in the power of the positive side of variance to pop up from time to time and help us out (not just kick us in the ass)

ticklz · 09-13-12, 10:59 PM

Thanks once again LT another great day

5-0 this week following you $$