8/22 MLB - Thoughts?

LuckyStarter · 08-22-12, 01:24 AM

As I posted in thread..... Rise of the Underdogs for the month of August......Favorites has won eunff

Cardinals seems too hot to lose for now but its time for mariners to lose and Yankees wont be losing that easy tomorrow. If CWS want another win, have to fight until they sweat their azz.

2daBank · 08-22-12, 01:56 AM

played cards -2.5 +130 and hou tt u 3 -145 in 1st gm (unfortunately didnt get to post as it was bday and had to work late so no time, doubt anyone who knows me doubts i played these)....it was time for cards bats to show up and waino is waino..

far as cards 2marro as most know Norris used to own stl, they have hit him better as of late and he coming off 6 days rest which hasnt been ideal for him over the years..Loshe is a str8 up QS monster and you might as well pencil him in for a least 7 ip 2er max right now, Cards MO for the most part all yr is you can count on them frontrunning and hanging big score but then regressing right back to 3 runs a gm, this team honestly makes no sense, that lineup should never struggle to score the way it does (overall numbers very deceiving as they either pile it on of dont show up)..2 biggest problems with me feeling confident they struggle to score is Norris off long rest (not good for him) and not sure 7 was a big enough number for cards bats to go back to sleep.. if you can get hou tt u3 at -120 or better i think you play the under and hope pen doenst give up the run/runs to push (it may be more than -120 and i would prob pass)...other thoughts and this doesnt correlate at all but think i can make a argument as for why it isnt unreasonable, play stl rl -120 and get a nice price on gm u 7.5 (sitting at ev right now but i would think + money be available at some point potentially) ..logic here is pretty simple for me, far as im concerned if this gm goes over cards cover the rl as it will be because their bats show up/norris struggles and they front run to another beat down.. id expect stl to handle business all series but lets be real they are inconsistent as fukk and are terrible in close gms (have blown a ton of QS by loshe), so lets say the bad ass bud shows up and pitches very well and keeps this gm close, this only way i see rl getting beat and in that case this gm wont see 8 runs.. the nice thing is imho there a very good possibility it stays under and cards cover rl as well which makes this feel like low risk good reward to me as very reasonable to expect cards to score 3 min and more than likely max out at 5, while i think stros right in the 1-3 range, 4-2 is about where i have it but obviously 5-2, 4-1, 3-1, or anything where stros get blanked again all pay on both plays..ive been wrong before but honestly think it either push or win betting it like this... i can certainly make strong case for simply playing the un 7.5 (especailly at plus money), but i have some doubts about Norris here (mainly coming off early exit and extended rest, all things being normal i play this under and that is all) which leads to other half of the play on stl rl....

2daBank · 08-22-12, 02:35 AM

just played KC +182....i dont think schedule makers did rays any favors here, 1st they come back from the west coast swing with no day off, and in typical fashion adrenaline gets them thru the 1st gm but bats look flat today, now they gotta play a early game on the heels of oak getting ready to come to town with wild card implications.. always a fan of fading a team after they have a streak snapped and even tho tb latest streak wasnt all that long they have basically been red hot all month and now coming off a loss, mendoza capable of limiting a limited lineup, kc on bit of a heater and play better away from home...to me +182 was more than enough to take a shot here..