Chase Experiment Phase 2

[arpeggiomeister]

This is a continuation of my MLB chase experiment. The goal is to hit 26% ROI 3 times. I compound the profits after each phase so it should snowball into 100%. Do this 6 times and $2,000 turns to $128,000.

This is a paper trading experiment. The odds are determined by public opinion. This is a bubble mentality that swings like a pendulum from overvalued to undervalued and back again. I believe this pattern can be exploited with chase systems.

* I am quite familiar with the argument that no system works. I understand the negative EV argument. I believe the "Pendulum Cycle" I described above affects the EV in ways that random games like roulette can not.

In phase one I turned $2,000 into $2,520. My next goal is $3,176. This experiment will run into football season. I may mix the NFL and and the MLB. It depends on how long this phase takes. I will start tomorrow. I have had my eye on the Cubs/Reds series.

Here are the results of phase one:

1. 6/28/12 – SD 7 (Padres) vs HOU 3 (Astros) - Over 8.5 -105 $26.25 - win $2,025
   
2. 6/29/12 – PHI 2 (Phillies) vs MIA 6 (Marlins) - Over 7 -110 $27.50 - win $2,050
   
3. 6/30/12 – LAA 2 (Angels) vs TOR 11 (Bluejays) Over 10 (1pm) -110 $27.50 - win $2,075
   
4. 6/30/12 – NYM 5 (Mets) vs LAD 0 (Dodgers) Over 7 -105 $26.25 (7 pm) loss $2,048.75
   
5. 7/1/12 - WSH 8 (Nationals) vs ATL 4 (Braves) Moneyline WSH -110 win $52.50 $2,098.75
   
6. 7/1/12 - TEX 1 (Rangers) vs OAK 3 (Athletics) OAK team total 4 under -110 $55 - win $2,148.75
   
7. 7/2/12 - HOU 2 (Astros) vs PIT 11 (Pirates) Over 7.5 -110 $27.50 - win $2,173.75
   
8. 7/3/12 - BAL 5 (Orioles) vs SEA 4 (Mariners) Over 6.5 -105 $26.25 - win $2,198.75
   
9. 7/4/12 - PHI 9 (Phillies) vs NYM 2 (Mets) Over 8 -105 $26.25 - win $2,223.75
   
10. 7/4/12 - TEX 4 (Rangers) vs CWS 5 (White Sox) CWS moneyline -105 $26.50 - win $2,248.75
    
11. 7/5/12 - PHI 5 (Phillies) vs NYM 6 (Mets) Over 7 -110 $27.50 - win $2,273.75
    
12. 7/6/12 - ATL 5 (Braves) vs PHI 0 (Phillies) Over 9 -110 $27.50 - loss $2,245.25
    
13. 7/7/12 - *CWS 2 (Whitesox) vs TOR 0 (Bluejays) Runline -1.5 CWS +135 $50 - win $2,312.75 * noticed a swing from overs to unders. Not strong enough to convince me to chase so I switched to Runlines and Moneylines
    
14. 7/7/12 - BAL 0 (Orioles) vs LAA 3 (Angels) LAA Runline -1.5 +120 $25 - win $2,342.75
    
15. 7/8/12 - COL 4 (Rockies) vs WASH 3 (Nationals) WASH Runline -1.5 +105 $25 - loss $2,318.75
    
16. 7/10/12 - National League 5 vs American League 0 AL Runline -1.5 +160 $50 – loss $2,268.75
    
17. 7/14/12 - LAA 3 (Angels) vs NYY 5 (Yankees) NYY Runline +130 $75 – win $2,366.25
    
18. 7/14/12 - TB 5 (Rays) vs BOS 3 (Redsox) TB Runline -1.5 +135 $25 – win $2,400
    
19. 7/15/12 - SD 7 (Padres) vs LAD 2 (Dodgers) LAD Runline -1.5 +135 $25 – loss $2,375
    
20. 7/16/12 - CWS 1 (Whitesox) vs BOS 5 (Redsox) CWS moneyline +110 $50 - loss $2,325
    
21. 7/17/12 - NYM 4 (Mets) vs WSH 5 (Nationals) WSH Runline -1.5 +160 $75 – loss $2,250
    
22. 7/18/12 - TOR 0 (Bluejays) vs NYY 6 (Yankees) NYY Runline -1.5 +105 $100 – win $2,355
    
23. 7/18/12 - ARI 7 (Diamondbacks) vs CIN 1 (Reds) CIN Runline -1.5 +150 $50 – loss $2,305
    
24. 7/19/12 - CLE 0 (Indians) vs TB 6 (Rays) Over 7.5 -110 $75 – loss $2,230
    
25. 7/19/12 - OAK 4 (Athletics) vs NYY 3 NYY Runline -1.5 +145 $100 - loss $2,130
    
26. 7/20/12 - * OAK 3 (Athletics) vs NYY 2 NYY Runline -1.5 +125 $125 – loss $2,005 *I cut my losses, sensing imminent destruction if I continued to give chase
    
27. 7/21/12 - OAK 2 (Athletics) vs NYY 1 NYY Runline -1.5 +130 $30 - loss $1,975
    
28. 7/22/12 - OAK 5 (Athletics) vs NYY 4 NYY Runline -1.5 -110 $75 – loss $1,900
    
29. 7/23/12 - SEA 1 (Mariners) vs NYY 4 NYY Runline -1.5 -105 $150 – win $2,042.85
    
30. 7/24/12 - SEA 4 (Mariners) vs NYY 2 (Yankees) NYY Moneyline +100 $30 – loss $2,012.85
    
31. 7/25/12 - OAK 16 (Athletics) vs TOR 0 (Bluejays) OAK Moneyline +115 $60 – win $2,081.85
    
32. 7/26/12 - OAK 4 (Athletics) vs TOR 10 (Bluejays) OAK Moneyline -105 $81 – loss $2,000.85
    
33. 7/26/12 - *WASH 8 (Nationals) vs MIL 2 (Brewers) WASH Moneyline +115 $25 – win $2,029.60 *After suffering a large losing streak I changed from a 1 unit progression to a Hybrid Martingale.
    
34. 7/27/12 - WASH 0 (Nationals) vs MIL 6 (Brewers) WASH Moneyline +110 $29 – loss $2,000.60
    
35. 7/28/12 - DET 1 (Tigers) vs TOR 5 (Bluejays) DET Runline +115 $58 – loss $1,942.60
    
36. 7/28/12 - CIN 9 (Reds) vs COL 7 (Rockies) CIN Runline -110 -1.5 $116 - win $2,048.05
    
37. 7/29/12 - CIN 7 (Reds) vs COL 2 (Rockies) CIN Runline -110 -1.5 $48 – win $2.091.68
    
38. 7/29/12 - BOS 3 (Redsox) vs NYY 2 (Yankees) Over 10 -105 $91 – loss - $2,000.68
    
39. 7/30/12 - CIN 5 (Reds) vs SD 11 (Padres) CIN Runline -1.5 +125 $182 – loss $1,818.68
    
40. 7/31/12 - CIN 7 (Reds) vs SD 6 (Padres) CIN Runline -1.5 +120 $318 – loss $1,500.68
    
41. 8/1/12 - MIL13 (Brewers) vs HOU 4 (Astros) MIL -1.5 Runline -115 $700 - win $2,108.68
    
42. 8/1/12 - BOS 5 (Redsox) vs DET 7 (Tigers) BOS Moneyline -110 $108 - loss $2,000.68
    
43. 8/2/12 - CIN 9 (Reds) vs SD 4 (Padres) CIN Runline -1.5 +100 $25 – win $2,025.68
    
44. 8/2/12 - BOS 0 (Redsox) vs MIN 5 (Twins) Over 10 -110 $27.50 – loss $1,998.18
    
45. 8/3/12 - *ATL 4 (Braves) vs HOU 1 (Astros) ATL Runline -1.5 -130 $68 – win $2,050.48 *I started choosing games by trying to find a mismatch in power rankings on ESPN. The Astros are dead last, and the Braves were in the top 10 at this time.
    
46. 8/4/12 - ATL 2 (Braves) vs HOU 3 (Astros) ATL Runline -1.5 -110 $50 – loss $2,000.48
    
47. 8/5/12 - ATL 6 (Braves) vs HOU 1 (Astros) ATL Runline -1.5 -115 $100 – win $2,087.43
    
48. 8/6/12 - WASH 5 (Nationals) vs HOU 4 (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -115 $25 – loss $2,062.43
    
49. 8/7/12 - WASH 3 (Nationals) vs HOU 2 (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -115 $62 – loss $2,000.43
    
50. 8/8/12 - WASH 4 (Nationals) vs HOU 3 (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -145 $145 - loss $1,855.43
    
51. 8/9/12 - WASH 5 (Nationals) vs HOU 0 (Astros) WASH Runline -1.5 -110 $290- win $2,119.05
    
52. 8/10/12 - COL 3 (Rockies) vs SF 0 (Giants) SF Runline -105 $119 – loss $2,000.05
    
53. 8/11/12 - * COL 3 (Rockies) vs SF 9 (Giants) SF Runline -110 $110 – win $2,110.05 *I recognized that I have been caught in a tight formation. I call this performing “at expectation”. It is very difficult to get a Hybrid Martingale to work for it needs a winning streak to succeed. I switched to a straight Martingale with a $100 unit. This is very risky because I can only go 4 tiers deep, but if the win/loss pattern remains as tight as it has been I should reach my goal quickly.
    
54. 8/11/12 - WASH 6 (Nationals) vs ARI 5 (Diamondbacks) WASH Moneyline +115 – win $2,225.05
    
55. 8/12/12 - * COL 6 (Rockies) vs SF 9 (Giants) SF Runline +145 $100 – win $2,370.05 I apparently gave up on the hybrid system too soon. This game would have put me past my goal. I am doing well so I can't be too upset.
    
56. 8/13/12 - SD 4 (Padres) vs ATL 1 (Braves) ATL Runline +100 $100 – loss $2,270.05
    
57. 8/14/12 - * SD 0 (Padres) vs ATL 6 (Braves) ATL Runline +110 $200 – win $2,490.05 *Switching to $100 unit was successful and after this win I am now in range of my $520 goal. This was a tremendous risk because I only had 4 tiers to chase with. I have backed off the $100 unit, but I'm still betting more then the $25. I am $30 away from my target and I am going to attempt to get it in this next chase.
    
58. 8/15/12 - SD 1 (Padres) vs ATL 6 (Braves) Under 8 -115 $34.50 – win $2,520.05
    
    I'll post the first game in the morning.

[arpeggiomeister]

Today's game:


CHI (Cubs) vs CIN (Reds) CIN Runline -1.5 +100 $40 to win $40

[arpeggiomeister]

It's early in the progression but I am going to take a risk and up the unit to $100. I will give chase if I lose. I believe I should win at least one more game in this series so this can give me a big boost.

Today's early game:

CHI (Cubs) vs CIN (Reds) CIN Runline -1.5 +100 risk $100 to win $100

Late game:


CHI (Cubs) vs CIN (Reds) CIN Runline -1.5 +100


if early game wins risk $140 to win $140. (This begins the anti martingale portion of the hybrid martingale)

if earlly game loses risk $200 to win $200

[arpeggiomeister]

Early game is a hit. CHI 3 vs CIN 5

Account is now $2,660.05. Let's see what the late game brings.

[arpeggiomeister]

Late game loses CHI 9 vs CIN 7 Account now $2,520.05

I debated whether or not to chase this. I will only have three shots to right the ship. I decided to go for it.

Today's game:

CHI (Cubs) vs CIN (Reds) CIN Runline -1.5 -125 risk $280 to win $224

[arpeggiomeister]

CHI 4 CIN 5 loss account $2240.05

Today's game:

MIN (Twins) vs OAK (Athetics) OAK Runline -1.5 +130 $560 to win $728

[arpeggiomeister]

Min 7 vs OAK 2 $1,680

It comes down to one game. We'll see if I crash and burn or live to go another round. I'm going all in because there would not be enough left to do much with.

Today's game:

KC (Royals) vs TB (Rays) TB Runline – 1.5 -120 $1,680 to win $1,400

[arpeggiomeister]

Crash and Burn!!! Thank God this was paper trading. :P

I noticed that I would have won had I been able to continue with my MIN vs OAK series but second game was not available on Betus. Not sure why. Perhaps I tried to post it too early.

I will continue with more of these experiments to see if I can make it fly. I believe it can be done. If not, I am supplying hard evidence for the sharp's arguments that systems do not work.

I am considering doing an touting experiment where I pit 2 touting services against each other 2 see who comes out on top. This would cost money to try but I think it would be interesting to see. In fairness to the services I would have to release results after the games take place. I will have to think about this. It would be a fun experiment, and I think people would find it interesting.

Talk soon.