Making a Case for the Minnesota Twins (+190)

[Jeff Grant]

There's been very little movement in the MLB betting odds for Wednesday's game between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox, which is quite surprising due to the listed starting pitchers

• Twins SP Nick Blackburn is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA in his last five starts at U.S. Cellular Field
• Blackburn will not have to face White Sox C A.J. Pierzynski (.356), who has more hits against him than any other player (16)
• White Sox SP Jake Peavy is 0-2 with a 10.61 ERA against the Twins at U.S. Cellular Field
• Peavy has received just 11 runs of support over his last seven starts, lowest average in the AL in that span (1.93 per 9IP)
• Both teams rank in the top seven in baseball in daytime hitting
• Minnesota is 8-9 as a road underdog of +175 to +200 the last two-plus seasons, while the White Sox are 1-3 as home favorites of -200 to -225 in the same period.

One major hurdle is the Twins bullpen allowing 21 runs in 21 innings against the White Sox this year, which makes the five-inning line a more attractive option

[No coincidences]

As someone who faded Blackburn in his first start back from the DL, let me say the White Sox ML is far from a sure thing.

[benjy]

You make a decent case. Nice post.

[El Nino]

Blackburn tends to give up a lot of early HR's....White Sox have been mashing HR's this series. Dunn and Konerko have one in both games of this series. 6 HR's in 2 games. On the flip side, Peavy is struggling and the Twins have been hitting, just not producing RBI's in the clutch. Over or nothing.

[Jeff Grant]

As someone who faded Blackburn in his first start back from the DL, let me say the White Sox ML is far from a sure thing.

Blackburn 7-3 in his last 11 starts against the White Sox since May 21, 2009 (9-7, 4.18 ERA in his career)

Youkilis is a bit of a concern (8-for-20 vs. Blackburn) - could fill the void of Pierzynski

[No coincidences]

Blackburn 7-3 in his last 11 starts against the White Sox since May 21, 2009 (9-7, 4.18 ERA in his career)

Youkilis is a bit of a concern (8-for-20 vs. Blackburn) - could fill the void of Pierzynski

I wouldn't consider much beyond the FF, or the MIN RL, but that's just me.

[Jeff Grant]

Line plummeted in the final couple minutes on the board - not a fan of that movement