MLB - Wednesday, 7/25/12

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Wednesday

Brewers / Phillies UNDER 8.5 -110 (5 Dimes)
Astros +140 (Bookmaker)


YTD: 205-163-16, +49.14

[pimpinaces]

Damn man astos again??

[leetreaper]

Astros loooool

[scottsins]

Astros loooool

He's up 49 units.

[LT Profits]

Because the value lies with the Astros so deal with it. Truthfully, Homer Bailey should not be a road favorite in the -150s when both starting pitchers have virtually identical FIPs.

[Exxpresso]

Hey LT Profits, do you like the Mariners today at home ?

[LT Profits]

Hey LT Profits, do you like the Mariners today at home ?

I do think the Mariners are live but still checking out some things.

[No coincidences]

Astros loooool

I'm sure the Astros will never win again.

[Vinnie Paz]

Thanks man
These asshole astros gotta come through some day!

[sportsguy04]

I'm sure the Astros will never win again.

With that line up, most likely not and co co

[Mr Handicapable]

Homer lifetime vs Houston 4-0 1.60 era
Homer's last 4 starts 4-0 1.76 era

The Reds have also won 13 of 15.....I'm on Reds ML +115

[leetreaper]

I'm sure the Astros will never win again.

My point exactly, no offence LT but how can Astros have any value, jokes...

[scottsins]

My point exactly, no offence LT but how can Astros have any value, jokes...

Because of what the ml is. The theory, that I subscribe to, is that with ml bets, you aren't just predicting the team most likely to win. You have to evaluate that in comparison to the price given.

It's just like value betting horses, if you're familiar with that.

My reasons may not be LT's, but that's why I bet underdogs sometimes, even though I may not be convinced that they are the probable winner.

[LT Profits]

MLB 6-Pack (First at 12:30 ET)

2 MLB Plays Wednesday

Brewers / Phillies UNDER 8.5 -110 (5 Dimes)
Astros +140 (Bookmaker)


YTD: 205-163-16, +49.14

Adding:

Marlins +112 (Rebate Wager)
Mariners +157 (Rebate Wager)
Tigers / Indians UNDER 9 -110 (5 Dimes)
Reds / Astros UNDER 4 -110 (5 innings) (Rebate Wager)


MLB Card complete

[LT Profits]

Because of what the ml is. The theory, that I subscribe to, is that with ml bets, you aren't just predicting the team most likely to win. You have to evaluate that in comparison to the price given.

It's just like value betting horses, if you're familiar with that.

My reasons may not be LT's, but that's why I bet underdogs sometimes, even though I may not be convinced that they are the probable winner.

100% correct and I implied as much when I said Bailey shouldn't be this price on the road, which is the same thing as saying 'Stros are undervalued.

[No coincidences]

My point exactly, no offence LT but how can Astros have any value, jokes...

So Bailey being -150 on the road makes sense to you?

[LT Profits]

Homer lifetime vs Houston 4-0 1.60 era
Homer's last 4 starts 4-0 1.76 era

The Reds have also won 13 of 15.....I'm on Reds ML +115

And that's why line is what it is. But if you look at FIP, you'll see starters are basically a wash. Yes Reds are stronger on other areas but I come up with them winning about 56% of the time.

[altieriflyers]

Thanks for your plays LT
BOL

[BamaCBass]

And that's why line is what it is. But if you look at FIP, you'll see starters are basically a wash. Yes Reds are stronger on other areas but I come up with them winning about 56% of the time.

And if I'm not mistaken, laying -150 is equivalent to a 60% probability. Correct? So the value is basically in that 4% difference in theory I suppose. Out of say 100 times with said conditions, 4 games would make the difference... LOL. No wonder this game is a challenge.

[hydrosmak]

So Bailey being -150 on the road makes sense to you?

He doesn't even know what value is Noco. He is only worried about winners.

[LT Profits]

And if I'm not mistaken, laying -150 is equivalent to a 60% probability. Correct? So the value is basically in that 4% difference in theory I suppose. Out of say 100 times with said conditions, 4 games would make the difference... LOL. No wonder this game is a challenge.

56% is a no-vig line of +/-127

[BamaCBass]

56% is a no-vig line of +/-127

Cool, that makes sense.

GL!

[leetreaper]

Def makes sense, Cincy needs to control central division, bailey is 1 era and 1 whip with 3 wins last 3 games, Hoston lost 20 games in a row and out of the playoff picture, the line should be -175 plus.

[leetreaper]

Not to mention that :
BAILEY is 4-0 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 1.60 and a WHIP of 0.921.

NORRIS is 0-2 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 7.23 and a WHIP of 2.089.

[leetreaper]

Where is the value coming from?

[Vasco]

Can't believe I fell for the Philly under after watching that 9 run 8th inning last night. Wait til this game gets to the bullpen.

[Gamble32jn]

Can't believe I fell for the Philly under after watching that 9 run 8th inning last night. Wait til this game gets to the bullpen.

i took 1 pick today from a random person on the forum and it was LT. I got bad timing it seems..LOL. All my picks are at least doing good so far. Up a good amount so as long as philly wins it a free roll for me.

[alanlazar]

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8gd-be68XCvYmNUWkRfSE1tZFk/edit

This proves his point on the Reds game

[leetreaper]

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8gd...RfSE1tZFk/edit

This proves his point on the Reds game

Thank you.

[LT Profits]

Where is the value coming from?

I already mentioned FIP, which is much more predictive then commonly available stats.

[Donkeys2012]

I already mentioned FIP, which is much more predictive then commonly available stats.

I already mentioned LT Profits sucks but not nearly in the same class as Landers and Brahma

[altieriflyers]

LT is having a tremendous year. Thanks to him I`ve made a good amount of money.

[LT Profits]

LT is having a tremendous year. Thanks to him I`ve made a good amount of money.

Not today though 0-3 start.

[altieriflyers]

There will be days like this. Keep up the good work!

[leetreaper]

Astros and value are two different/opposite things...