If you follow line movement like I do, you're getting buried today

[No coincidences]

Jeesh this is the cruelest thread I've ever read. Guy says He's losing his ass off today and 11 people line up to kick him in the nuts! What's insane is the guy is taking it from all sides playing 10$ a game which seems reasonable if he has a 1k bankroll, chasing steam which is good form if you have a lean and wanna see DURING THE WEEK how the sharps or people who are a little better than the public views a teams chances or if a number has gotten a little out of hand. Your best bet OP if you're gonna watch line movement is to know why the line is moving and when it's moving. Out of the teams you listed none werent public sides or moves. Trying to get a read on a Boston money line move on a Saturday when it's the only game on the board that's about to begin isn't gonna ever make your decision any easier. Chasing steam can be a good way to build a bankroll but it is never used to handicap a game and if you are betting 10$ a side I'd suggest forgetting betting and learning to cap but more learning the way of scalping, middling and hedging parlays, futures, teasers and finding better +EV spots.Good luck to OP and to the rest of the guys giving him a hard time GFY

I don't mind the discussion, and if others disagree with me, hell, that's fine. On a day like today, I have to take my medicine. Just really surprised the RLM today has produced squat -- literally. But there are days like this from time to time.

I don't bet $10 per game BTW. It's $20 per unit. My plays range from $20 to $200, and I make a lot of them. But I never claimed to be some high roller. Not even close.

[2daBank]

I actually hadn't played a game Lohse had pitched in for over a month until today.

You have to admit, the Cards' pen has been suspect and Matheny isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer yet. I'm not defending the Marlins' pen by any means -- they're awful -- but Z has been brilliant in his career in StL. Remember, too, I wasn't laying chalk here. Big difference vs. had I taken the - number.

yea Matheny is a fukkin moron..we agree...cards pen not so hot, we agree, but pen vs pen id take cards over fish...im not really saying anything pinpointing this gm, could have went either way, hell motte tried to blow in 9th...just in general that line moves are for a lot of reasons that we dont know the answer to from simply trying to balance action to a million other things, i just happen to witness year after year in certain spots cards lines drop like crazy and that usually the best times to play them cause someone/group see "value" that simply isnt there in that particular circumstance

[2daBank]

How am I "stuck on my beliefs"? I value line movement, but it's not gospel. I'm saying there's an advantage to tracking it -- especially in RLM situations -- but never in tailing it blindly. You say just ignore it. I never once said I'm right and you're wrong, or that you need to start paying attention to it or else. Just trying to have a discussion about it.

i dont ignore it...i use it to get the price i want on the team i want so i guess far as being a predictor yea im saying if you gonna weigh it in i wouldnt do so very heavily.....

[No coincidences]

yea Matheny is a fukkin moron..we agree...cards pen not so hot, we agree, but pen vs pen id take cards over fish...im not really saying anything pinpointing this gm, could have went either way, hell motte tried to blow in 9th...just in general that line moves are for a lot of reasons that we dont know the answer to from simply trying to balance action to a million other things, i just happen to witness year after year in certain spots cards lines drop like crazy and that usually the best times to play them cause someone/group see "value" that simply isnt there in that particular circumstance

Yeah -- like I said, there are no guarantees in this game. Over the course of a baseball season, there are bound to be plays and days like this. In retrospect, there was no real angle to this game and I regret fading Lohse, who was better than I expected.

[2daBank]

years ago you could have made a way better case but as Pauly P astutely pointed out this is 2012 and everyone knows about such things, when everyone knows it not really a angle anymore..

[2daBank]

i know you know guys/talk to guys that simply hit openers hard enough to create movement hoping that others see this and it picks up steam, simply so they can come back and scalp...so you think those guys have a edge on outcome? they basically trying to manipulate lines so they win before the gm starts. which would mean you will see huge line drop before 1st pitch it isnt a sign of anything but them getting their free money..

[No coincidences]

years ago you could have made a way better case but as Pauly P astutely pointed out this is 2012 and everyone knows about such things, when everyone knows it not really a angle anymore..

I'd actually say it's been within the last year. I've only been betting for a little over three years, but for the first two, RLM was an absolute gold mine. That all changed starting with college football this past fall.

[No coincidences]

i know you know guys/talk to guys that simply hit openers hard enough to create movement hoping that others see this and it picks up steam, simply so they can come back and scalp...so you think those guys have a edge on outcome? they basically trying to manipulate lines so they win before the gm starts. which would mean you will see huge line drop before 1st pitch it isnt a sign of anything but them getting their free money..

But wouldn't that be reflected in the line? For instance, if those sharps hammered the Cubs early today to get the Mets line down for a better number, wouldn't it bounce back up before first pitch when they bet the Mets?

[2daBank]

But wouldn't that be reflected in the line? For instance, if those sharps hammered the Cubs early today to get the Mets line down for a better number, wouldn't it bounce back up before first pitch when they bet the Mets?

again this is hard to really talk about on a gm to gm basis and i honestly didnt pay much if any attention of opening lines last night or closing on some gms today... just in general i know there guys that create line moves both directions simply to scalp and how do you know when that is what you seeing far as you using line moves as a predictive quality? a lot of factors to simply think a line moving against majority is the sharp side..

[Snowball]

An example for you Snow: the Mets today. Are you telling me the public drove that line 18 cents in the Cubs' favor? Same could be said for the Marlins, or the Rays. That's not the "public" pushing the lines in the opposite direction of where most of the general bets lie.

Vegas first, offshores second put out the line, then the money flows on it, there is no way to tell if it's sharp or square money. It's just money. Unless there is a catalyst event before the game, it's blind. There is no way to tell.
If you're going to chase LM you may as well pay a tout service.
The best ones push big money on bets.
At least you will get better value being ahead of the LM instead of waiting for it.

[Ralphie1412]

Again, I'm not hellbent on line movement plays only. Far from it. In fact, if you check my thread out, the vast majority of my big bet losses are when I'm ignoring it and going by what I have -- which usually ends in disaster. Atlanta tonight is a good example. We'll see what happens.

You are so full of shit. All you do is play stuff based on line movement. It's all you talk about. And you don't know shit about it. It's hysterical though.

[2daBank]

You are so full of shit. All you do is play stuff based on line movement. It's all you talk about. And you don't know shit about it. It's hysterical though.

ralphie you so mean!!!

how it goes my brother?

[Ralphie1412]

Good. How you been?

[2daBank]

Good. How you been?

ya know trying to survive, contemplating ways of getting around obama care ,dont want, need, or require insurance as i dont go to doctors (didnt even use the free ones in prison, lol) ..

[phillybadboy]

i tailed huge!

[dynamite140]

You are so full of shit. All you do is play stuff based on line movement. It's all you talk about. And you don't know shit about it. It's hysterical though.