If you follow line movement like I do, you're getting buried today

[No coincidences]

Red Sox, Giants, Brewers, Cubs, Marlins all had huge swings in their favor -- with only Milwaukee being a big public play -- yet they're going to be 0-5. I laid off the Giants and Red Sox, but got drilled on the Cubs, Marlins and Brew Crew.



Red Sox opened at -103, closed at -133
Giants opened at +118, closed at +102
Brewers opened at -133, closed at -146
Cubs opened at +146, closed at +128
Marlins opened at +141, closed at +123

[2daBank]

that cause line movement has absolutely no baring on the outcome of a gm, one day you will learn this to be true..or maybe not i do not know...just dont understand why you treat this shit as gospel? lines move for a million reasons you/me/or most never know the answer to, sure there prob times when someone knows something and puts huge money down before 1st pitch or early on (whatever) but seeing how you will never know when those times are you should just cap the gms and make best plays you can....

my rant over i just hate seeing you always questioning line moves when that is never gonna get you anywhere.. sometimes you be right and it will have nothing to do with move, sometimes not but what the line does has no relation to what is gonna happen on that field..

[dynamite140]

Have you ever thought about stop looking at line movement?

[No coincidences]

chance dont understand why you treat this shit as gospel?

I don't. I make plenty of plays that aren't chasing steam. Trust me. I almost always get buried accordingly as well; I never win when betting against a line move.

I also never said line movement is the end-all be-all. Far from it. But it's also not smart to bet against it long term -- especially when the moves are double-digit RLM. To say that what the line does has "no relation to what is gonna happen on that field" is not very open minded thinking Banker.

[PAULYPOKER]

[No coincidences]

There's a big difference between tracking line movement and chasing steam on every play. Nothing wrong with the former.

[dynamite140]

I don't. I make plenty of plays that aren't chasing steam. Trust me. I almost always get buried accordingly as well; I never win when betting against a line move.

I also never said line movement is the end-all be-all. Far from it. But it's also not smart to bet against it long term -- especially when the moves are double-digit RLM. To say that what the line does has "no relation to what is gonna happen on that field" is not very open minded thinking Banker.

A $10 bettor with no clue about gambling.


All this guy does is bet line movement plays and then whine when they lose.



But if it hits.... he will say I told you to never fade it

[dynamite140]

LOL at you not chasing steam. Most of your plays are near gametime when steam is on the other side and then you bet that weak line at bovada. Yet another pathological lie. But bovada is perfect for small bettors like you with no clue about gambling.


Too bad you betting steam means nothing since you only bet $10 a game.

[Snowball]

line movement doesn't mean anything in baseball unless
there is an actual catalyst event before game time.
it means the most in football. but in football you
want to get ahead of the line, not behind it.

[2daBank]

I don't. I make plenty of plays that aren't chasing steam. Trust me. I almost always get buried accordingly as well; I never win when betting against a line move.

I also never said line movement is the end-all be-all. Far from it. But it's also not smart to bet against it long term -- especially when the moves are double-digit RLM. To say that what the line does has "no relation to what is gonna happen on that field" is not very open minded thinking Banker.

im a pretty open minded fellow but telling me that what a line does effects what happens on field is asinine..maybe and prob more so in years past it was a good indicator of what might take place (dont believe so nearly as much now that this is all mainstream info)..i fade line moves constantly when betting cards gms and have been sucessful with it for a long time, not really fading line moves but some of best value on cards is when "sharps" are against them..take Loshe for example, ill tel you why lne moves against him constantly yet cards win majority of his starts, it is because metric geeks hate loshe and fade accordingly seeing value that isnt there because metrics tell a misguided story of Kyle Loshe... im sure there are a 100 more examples of this, i just notice it with cards as i follow them rather close..

[No coincidences]

line movement doesn't mean anything in baseball unless
there is an actual catalyst event before game time.
it means the most in football. but in football you
want to get ahead of the line, not behind it.

I wouldn't say it doesn't mean "anything" -- just on this particular day it doesn't.

[No coincidences]

im a pretty open minded fellow but telling me that what a line does effects what happens on field is asinine..

I should clarify and say it "predicts" -- not necessarily "effects." There are a lot of guys who crunch numbers much more than you or I do setting lines and/or making bets that move the lines accordingly. They aren't always right, but they have the kind of resources and information at their disposal that you and I could only dream of having.

Now with that being said, hitting 60% without paying heavy juice would make you rich beyond your wildest dreams, so there will obviously be days like this where line movement means squat and "sharp" bets fall.

[Vinnie Paz]

line movement doesn't mean anything in baseball unless
there is an actual catalyst event before game time.
it means the most in football. but in football you
want to get ahead of the line, not behind it.

Ive noticed the first statement a lot, baseball tons of games with rlm all over them yet the outcome usually doesnt seem to follow. Ill admit i followed rlm/static lines a lot during last nba season and it did me very well. I think with baseball, just fucc a line movement, do your own homework/research and trust in it. Wont feel as shitty afterwards if you lose than if you followed how a fukkin line moves.

[Snowball]

so there will obviously be days like this where line movement means squat and "sharp" bets fall.

?. Chasing LM is going with the public. Unless there is a real change such as a late
injury scratch, LM is just the public, so chasing LM is going with the public, aka Square.

[No coincidences]

?. Chasing LM is going with the public. Unless there is a real change such as a late
injury scratch, LM is just the public, so chasing LM is going with the public, aka Square.

Depends on if the public is backing the bet though. What do you mean LM is "just the public"?

[Snowball]

Depends on if the public is backing the bet though. What do you mean LM is "just the public"?

the predominance of money wagered. that's the "public". Then, Vegas has to raise the payout on the other side to attract more action there, and deflect it away (and pay less) to the heavy action.
LM is nothing more than a process by which Vegas balances their risk.

[PAULYPOKER]

Line movement is dead coin,you need to find another angle, this is 2012...............

[No coincidences]

the predominance of money wagered. that's the "public". Then, Vegas has to raise the payout on the other side to attract more action there, and deflect it away (and pay less) to the heavy action.
LM is nothing more than a process by which Vegas balances their risk.

Who's to say, though?

[Utah_Jay]

the predominance of money wagered. that's the "public". Then, Vegas has to raise the payout on the other side to attract more action there, and deflect it away (and pay less) to the heavy action.
LM is nothing more than a process by which Vegas balances their risk.

This is spot on. Not sure why people over think this.

[No coincidences]

Line movement is dead coin,you need to find another angle, this is 2012...............

Again, I'm not hellbent on line movement plays only. Far from it. In fact, if you check my thread out, the vast majority of my big bet losses are when I'm ignoring it and going by what I have -- which usually ends in disaster. Atlanta tonight is a good example. We'll see what happens.

[No coincidences]

the predominance of money wagered. that's the "public". Then, Vegas has to raise the payout on the other side to attract more action there, and deflect it away (and pay less) to the heavy action.
LM is nothing more than a process by which Vegas balances their risk.

An example for you Snow: the Mets today. Are you telling me the public drove that line 18 cents in the Cubs' favor? Same could be said for the Marlins, or the Rays. That's not the "public" pushing the lines in the opposite direction of where most of the general bets lie.

[2daBank]

An example for you Snow: the Mets today. Are you telling me the public drove that line 18 cents in the Cubs' favor? Same could be said for the Marlins, or the Rays. That's not the "public" pushing the lines in the opposite direction of where most of the general bets lie.

i told you what drives lines against loshe...metrics geeks hate him and see misguided value fading him...when in fact all they doing is dropping line for value on stl..

[No coincidences]

i told you what drives lines against loshe...metrics geeks hate him and see misguided value fading him...when in fact all they doing is dropping line for value on stl..

So who wins more in the long run: guys like Justin7 or brahmabull? Because for every example like Lohse where "metric geeks" are wrong, you can literally find dozens where the advanced stats don't lie and they are dead on, which makes the RLM real and the line move accordingly.

I made a killing fading Lohse during his typical May/June correction. To his credit, he's bounced back and seems to have turned a corner.

[2daBank]

So who wins more in the long run: guys like Justin7 or brahmabull? Because for every example like Lohse where "metric geeks" are wrong, you can literally find dozens where the advanced stats don't lie and they are dead on, which makes the RLM real and the line move accordingly.

I made a killing fading Lohse during his typical May/June correction. To his credit, he's bounced back and seems to have turned a corner.

if you talking strictly stl id imagine so called "sharps" typically dont do all that well....far as metrics i have no problem with them and use them daily in my capping, that said there way to many that act as if they are the gospel and ignore other factors and Loshe is a prime example...let me know what your up if you have faded him the last 3 or so years? if you gonna fade him typically best to do it towards end of season as he generally fades...

[Vinnie Paz]

Long term for you NC has following lines when betting mlb proven to be successful?

[No coincidences]

if you talking strictly stl id imagine so called "sharps" typically dont do all that well....far as metrics i have no problem with them and use them daily in my capping, that said there way to many that act as if they are the gospel and ignore other factors and Loshe is a prime example..

re: Lohse, it's not like that's the only factor that goes into the game though. He pitched well today, but let's not act like this game was a slam dunk. You get the Cardinals' pen involved and who knows what can happen. As you know I was on Miami, and I'd make the bet again given Z's track record at Busch and the way the Marlins have been swinging the bats.

[No coincidences]

Long term for you NC has following lines when betting mlb proven to be successful?

I don't really keep track of which bets I specifically make solely because of line movement, so I'm not even sure. There aren't that many. There are times where I like a play so much that I'll lock it in at a bad price because the movement is indicating it's a play, especially if the public is against it. Not very smart, because in baseball, a lot of it is getting a good number. I rarely make a play based on line movement if I haven't done any capping on the game itself, but there are plenty of times where I will decide that the line speaks for itself and there is no real reason for me to dig deeper on the game (i.e., the Diamondbacks last night).

[2daBank]

re: Lohse, it's not like that's the only factor that goes into the game though. He pitched well today, but let's not act like this game was a slam dunk. You get the Cardinals' pen involved and who knows what can happen. As you know I was on Miami, and I'd make the bet again given Z's track record at Busch and the way the Marlins have been swinging the bats.

that fine and no certainly wasnt slam dunk, once line was done moving the value was on Loshe tho..im talking that you will normally see cards lines drop in gms that Loshe pitches simply because a certain group see value in fading him as they expect regression based off advanced stats.. ..not to mentiojn cards are a very public team so typically lines open a little high so value hunters go against, which is fine but by time you jump in the value has either been sucked dry or completely flipped to being on the cards..

[No coincidences]

that fine and no certainly wasnt slam dunk, once line was done moving the value was on Loshe tho..im talking that you will normally see cards lines drop in gms that Loshe pitches simply because a certain group see value in fading him as they expect regression based off advanced stats.. ..not to mentiojn cards are a very public team so typically lines open a little high so value hunters go against, which is fine but by time you jump in the value has either been sucked dry or completely flipped to betting the cards..

So you don't agree with that based on his track record? Again, I was making a killing fading him when that regression came in May. You have to also remember they are fading him based on Matheny's rookie stupidity, the absence of Duncan and the struggling bullpen....

[blackeyeshamus]

I can't believe I'm still +units on the bases right now. I've been getting f@#kin' shellacked lately. All Star break comin' just in time... on Tuesday morning I'm goin' down to Overtown to hire a Haitian voodoo gangster to conduct some evil voodoo exorcism sacrifice an animal type sh#t and maybe next week the script will flip. Good luck, y'all.

[2daBank]

So you don't agree with that based on his track record? Again, I was making a killing fading him when that regression came in May. You have to also remember they are fading him based on Matheny's rookie stupidity, the absence of Duncan and the struggling bullpen....

struggling pen? yea sure but you were backing the fish who last i checked trot heath bells fat ass out there..im glad you had a good month against him, but im sure you been paying for since.. his track record the last 3 years has been stellar he ranks right up there in almost every category with any #2's in the league and he is typically matchup up with a 3-4 starter..

[2daBank]

i wont be back to this thread because you are stuck on your beliefs while you say im not open minded (lol)..but as much as i like you dynomite sounds more and more right when he starts trolling you....

[No coincidences]

struggling pen? yea sure but you were backing the fish who last i checked trot heath bells fat ass out there..im glad you had a good month against him, but im sure you been paying for since.. his track record the last 3 years has been stellar he ranks right up there in almost every category with any #2's in the league and he is typically matchup up with a 3-4 starter..

I actually hadn't played a game Lohse had pitched in for over a month until today.

You have to admit, the Cards' pen has been suspect and Matheny isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer yet. I'm not defending the Marlins' pen by any means -- they're awful -- but Z has been brilliant in his career in StL. Remember, too, I wasn't laying chalk here. Big difference vs. had I taken the - number.

[drnkyourmlkshk]

Jeesh this is the cruelest thread I've ever read. Guy says He's losing his ass off today and 11 people line up to kick him in the nuts! What's insane is the guy is taking it from all sides playing 10$ a game which seems reasonable if he has a 1k bankroll, chasing steam which is good form if you have a lean and wanna see DURING THE WEEK how the sharps or people who are a little better than the public views a teams chances or if a number has gotten a little out of hand. Your best bet OP if you're gonna watch line movement is to know why the line is moving and when it's moving. Out of the teams you listed none werent public sides or moves. Trying to get a read on a Boston money line move on a Saturday when it's the only game on the board that's about to begin isn't gonna ever make your decision any easier. Chasing steam can be a good way to build a bankroll but it is never used to handicap a game and if you are betting 10$ a side I'd suggest forgetting betting and learning to cap but more learning the way of scalping, middling and hedging parlays, futures, teasers and finding better +EV spots.Good luck to OP and to the rest of the guys giving him a hard time GFY

[No coincidences]

i wont be back to this thread because you are stuck on your beliefs while you say im not open minded (lol)..but as much as i like you dynomite sounds more and more right when he starts trolling you....

How am I "stuck on my beliefs"? I value line movement, but it's not gospel. I'm saying there's an advantage to tracking it -- especially in RLM situations -- but never in tailing it blindly. You say just ignore it. I never once said I'm right and you're wrong, or that you need to start paying attention to it or else. Just trying to have a discussion about it.