Fukkkkk .... all of them will win but two!!
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Again not saying all these teams will win! However chances are around 80% will and I will have an updated sheet later on who is most likely to win for the day. This mostly goes for people who just fade the public or love taking all or mostly dogs hoping half or close to half win for the day to gain net profit. Once again Sunday is the rake day for the pub so choose your dogs very wisely!Comment -
Love it!! Get that out asap!!!Comment -
Will do EC4! And if you are like me and rarely or never pay heavy juice (anything ov -150) or so think about a couple games you feel will cover the rl.Comment -
Det killed me today! but Sunday i like texas RLComment -
Lol... yeah Detroit game hurt me as well. Probably on the flipside of you it sounds like as I imagine you had Tiger rl. I took the dog and thought I had a chance in the 9th when they mounted that comeback and Betancourt sent a shot to the warning track with 2 on that would have given them a 9-8 lead with just a few more feet. Oh well though had the ov in that game at even odds as well so I lost nothing.Comment -
Fukk it no #'s yet on what the public bet is doing so far. I am tired and off to bed check my thread with posted plays which includes a stupid fat $ 7t par. Just remember a few heavy pub bets WILL lose today and to name a couple that I really don't like are Rangers, Cards! Gl everyoneComment -
All favs on Sunday are 1896-1325 (-149 average line) (-10.63u) since 2004
All Home favs on Sunday are 1330-849 (-156 average line) (+57.63u) since 2004
All Dogs on Monday are 906-1172 (+136 average line) (+25.30u) since 2004
All Road Dogs on Monday are 623-816 (+140 average line) (+29.68u) since 2004Comment -
Looking like we may see closer to 50/50 today. Last day before all-star break and god only knows where some of these guys heads are at. Some of these teams look like their out to fukking lunch today.Comment -
Did not make the post last week because it was all-star weekend and a little unpredictable. The system though still remained predictable going 8-4 (I believe) last Sunday. I cannot find the sheet however I did track on my own and heavy faves were either 8-4 or 9-3 of the top of my head. Todays heavy faves listed below. Sorry for the late post today.
Nats
Mets
Pitt
Philly
Halos
Frisco
Dodgers
Cards
Jays
Tigers
Oakland
White Sox
Rangers
ZonaComment -
2-3 to start the day because the White Sox could not score any fukking runs to help the cause. Going all in tonight! I will either win and be good for Monday or have to re-load when this game is over.
Cards -108 straight and 2t par with the un 9.5. GL boys...unless your playing the little red machine that is!Comment -
Heavy faves went 9-4 today so far hopefully Cards make it 10-4! Remember Monday is fade the public day if you don't wanna lose your a**!Comment -
Heavy faves cash again!
Nats = Win
Mets = Loss
Pirates = Loss
Philly = Win
Frisco = Win
Dodgers = Loss
Zona = Loss
Halos = Win
Jays = Win
Detroit = Win
A's = Win
White Sox = Win
Rangers = Win
Cards = Loss
Remember Monday is fade the public day! Big public faves went 9-5 today so expect a reversal tomorrow as usual. GLComment -
The pirates were actually underdogs, whereas the Brewers were favs - so doesn't that make your theory more correct?
By my count, favorites won 9-4. I didn't count STL/CIN and NYM/ATL since lines were about even.
Favs who won: WAS/MIL/CHI/PHI/SF/TOR/DET/CWS/TEX
Favs who lost: LAD/NYY/TB/MN
Underdogs for 7/16: WAS/AZ/PIT/HOU/PHI/LAA/TOR/CWS/CLE/BAL/SEA. Neutral would be STL/MIL.Comment -
It's not so much who is the fave and who is the dog. The trend in this thread has more to do with where the $ is. Heavy public money faves should clear it up sorry. Pirates had over 75% of the money on them today. So despite being a dog with the line they were still a heavy public fave. Now tomorrow same thing as always almost every game will be more heavily wagered on one side however unlike Sundays which is kind to the public $. On Monday most of those teams WILL lose I guarantee! So look at those faves closely tomorrow only about 4 typically win. Dogs will bark tomorrow as always on Mondays.Comment -
Do you go by the "favorite" according to the line, or according to who the public is favoring? Also, what tool are u using to determine who the public is on?Comment -
Like I have said before there is really no rhyme or reason statistically why this happens. I have looked at home/away scenarios, teams that just traveled etc. and nothing glaring there. The only thing I can come up with is a logical one. Sundays is usually the last game of a series and the better team will almost always be the fave with the books and what most people bet heavy on. Now in baseball every teams individual goal is to win each series obviously not every game (unrealistic) . And Sunday is usually like I said the closing of a series and the chance for the better team to win and go out on a good note. Monday you probably see more of a lazy factor after going 2-1 or 3-0 over the weekend and it's a great day for the upset special.Comment -
I look at who the public money is on ml only not rl so much. Scores and odds.com or Vegas Insider is where I get the #'s. Once you get the #'s the rest of the math is pretty elementary. Now obviously the public money will usually be on who is favored in the line. The Pirates today would be a rare example of a plus money team the public hammers. However taking a plus money team the public hammers is also suicide and a pipe dream 90% of the time probably. Vegas does not give free plus money away at that high a price to 80% bettors lol!Comment -
Have you noticed a trend in totals too following this trend?Comment -
@PuckIt no I really have not kept an eye on how totals fare so much on these nights (yet anyway) just sides.Comment -
Here are the pub faves for tonight
Nats
Reds
Pirates
Diego
Phillies
Tigers
Yankees
Red Sox
Tribe
Twins
Once again in all probability only 4 of these will win tonight so choose your faves wisely!Comment -
I really like AZ, LAA, Cleveland and Baltimore. I see 55% on TB and 53% on Baltimore.Comment -
Yeah the system is for plays ov 60% though. Low to mid 50's is pretty much a split. Reds, Pirates, Twins, Phillies, and Tribe are the one's listed above I would be most worried about backing. GL with your plays tonight!Comment -
I actually kind of like Baltimore to win tonight. Scoresandodds.com showing 64% backing the Twinkies. Already made my plays tonight however been tossing that around today I may add it later.Comment -
Finally over! Unusual Monday this week but the "Good guys" came out ahead again. Lot of even matchups today and pick'em games and the lines the books gave indicated just that. Which is why I was pretty surprised to see so many games being bet so heavy today on one side. It's all good though like I said the "Good guys" won and the books lost lol! I would suggest maybe chasing this system again tomorrow though because the books have not fared well the last few days and will bite back.
Final results for Monday 7-16 public pounders
Nats= Loss
Reds = Loss
Pirates = Loss
Tigers = Win
Yanks = Win
Red Sox = Win
Tribe = Win
Twinkies = Win
Phillies = Win
Diego = Loss
Final record for 7/16 is 6-4 to the public!Comment -
Maybe it's just a coincidence who knows? However I find it ironic that a couple sites I mentioned in post #53 up top no longer show where the public money is on games
Just happens to take place less than a week after that post was made. In the last year I have followed those sites and this has NEVER been an issue. What's the matter puss*es? Afraid sharp guys like myself understand all to well this stuff is rigged to some degree to ensure the house always wins and know how to take advantage in spots?!?!? ...... Yeah I FUKKIN said it and we all know it's true!
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Just to give an example of a scenario so people don't think I'm paranoid or crazy. If 7 mlb day games are played and big public faves win say 5 of them and 3 night games follow. Then to quote Brandon Lang I would bet my mothers house with her in it that 2 outta 3 will fail for the public in the late games. Watch the trends people it's really a sure thing I sh*t you not!Comment -
Exposing the truth may get me banned from SBR since they are on the books side. If it does... then oh well nice knowing you all! One thing I am not is a bullsh*tter. I read between the lines and call a spade a spade bottom line!Comment
