It was a very common theme I noticed while betting NBA this year and I really caught on the last 6-7 weeks of the reg. season and it has held true the last 2 weeks so far in bases with tomorrow pending. Sundays Vegas gets their teeth kicked in and the faves win. Monday play the dogs mostly Vegas will bite back. This seems to ring true ecs. for these 2 days in particular. Seems simple, stupid, or maybe ironic but it payed me well down the stretch in hoops. Curious has anyone else noticed these types of trends? Cause lately in bases I have noticed it's a either a real good day for faves or a real bad one. There really is not much middle ground where a "split" occurs on a given day. I realize it's a small sample size but I really key in on these 2 days in particular. Let's see what tomorrow brings! Any thoughts?
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You'll drive yourself crazy handicapping this way
It's likely that the home favorites are hosting teams that are finishing up long road trips on Sunday - I'd look at that angle
Also may have some live dogs on Monday due to opening up a road trip against a team that just came home from oneComment -
Yeah I know Jeff it sounds crazy but I'm telling you in hoops it was $$. I guess the best way to look at it is to track your plays day to day and see which days bite you the most often and which ones pay the best. Most gamblers are one sided for the most part they either play all or mostly faves or vice versa (mostly low juice faves myself). I have not employed this strategy for bases yet just starting to track it. Always looking for systems or models to gain an edge.Comment -
jeff pretty much nailed it, you will drive yourself crazy with this and he also spot on about home favs 1st day back from long road trip prob a lot of times you notice this one monday.. but hell i remeber NC used to hate monday's last year and he a big time dog player so obvioulsy there were plenty of mon last season where fav did well (stop by nocoincidences thread and ask him bout it)..
i dont disagree with that logic w NBA to a extent tho...i always believed wed in the NBA was super chalk night and fri was home dog day, certainly wasnt fullproof but have no doubt you may have had some success with nba wth some type of strategy like this..Comment -
First of all, I commend you for asking what is (to you) a valid question. That's the way we can discuss various subjects and hopefully come out better cappers.
Secondly, I don't doubt that you had a certain degree of success with this method in the nba.
Unfortunately, I strongly suspect that your approach will, best-case scenario, put you in purgatory - a place where you win just enough but also lose just enough that you bleed away in juice. And that's if you're lucky.
Think about this. If Vegas noticed that on certain days of the week, they are taking it in the a55 from sharps and squares alike, don't you think they would make the necessary adjustment...? Of course they would. And what was once a great "system" is not so great. History is full of examples such as betting home dogs on monday night football, zig-zag theory during nba play-offs, etc.
The only winning capping strategy that I've come across is this. The methods you use must be able to adapt and evolve. I am constantly going over my filters to see what is still working, what is questionable, and what has out lived its usefulness.
If you find an angle that is profitable, by all means incorporate it into your decision making process. However, keep a vigilant eye and the instant you suspect it no longer gives you an edge, re-evaluate. Do not become emotionally attached just because it worked in the past. Emotions are for b1tches and reloaders.Comment -
Spot on EV ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^Comment -
Is there a site that keeps records of the Fav-Dogs of all games daily?Comment -
Appreciate the feedback guys. I just did a little homework just going back to last week 6-24 & 25 and I looked up todays results as well. Like I said just take this for what it's worth and keep track if you would like. These are results for applicable plays (60% of pub or higher on fave) and are ml results only not rl. Results for Sunday 6/24 faves of 60% or higher went 8-2 for an 80% ratio. Monday 6/25 faves of 60% or higher went 4-6 hitting 40%. Sunday 7-1 faves of 60% or higher went 11-2 hitting 84.6%. Obviously there is quite a difference between last weeks results with the faves hitting hard on Sunday and getting killed on Monday. And yes you guys are correct about teams starting new series and just landing in a new city late Sunday night or early Monday. Just something to think about and keep track of moving forward. Let's see what tomorrow brings us!Comment -
Faves of 60% or higher (ml bets) only are applicable recent results below
Sunday 6-24 = 8-2 (80%)
Monday 6-25 = 4-6 (40%)
Sunday 7-1 = 11-2 (84.6%)Comment -
The only favs that I see returning home Monday from a road trip are: Detroit, Arizona, and Pittsburgh.
Detroit and Pittsburgh also coming off of series wins, maybe something to be said there.
Some other information:
MIN vs DET:
-DET coming off 10 game successful road trip
-Fister 1-5 vs Twins
-Hendricks first appearance vs DET.
-MIN hopping over to DET, but DET coming from TB
SD vs ARI:
- Cahill 2-0 1R 15 IP vs SD this season (coming off of back to back 6R outings)
- SD's Richard is 3-0 in 5 starts vs ARI
- ARI 83-38 record vs SD
- SD to ARI from COL, ARI coming from MIL
HOU vs PIT:
-Pittsburgh coming off of +.500 7 game road trip
-McDonald 2-2 vs Houston
-McCutchen and Alvarez both could be out.
-HOU flying to PIT from CHI, PIT coming in from STL
Interesting also that they are 3 of the top 5 lines that I see now (STL -200 and MIL -166 being the only bigger ones).Comment -
It may not even be so much about the travel aspect, or who has home field. Something to look into deeper is the mindset of a team and hunger factor. On Mondays a lot of new series get kicked off and maybe a fave (most always the home team) who just won their last series gets lazy and a dog that got pummeled over the weekend is out for blood. That actually might be worth studying more. Like I mentioned earlier these are just trends but sometimes trends become systems... and systems can turn into dollars if you know how to ride them and pay attention!Comment -
Here are today's picks that the public is pounding the fukk out of. If a team has an asterisk next to it then they have traveled. If not then they were sitting home and waiting! The teams weekend records going back to Friday is also included to let you know how they fared.
Dodgers ov * Reds.... L.A. went 1-3 and Reds 2-2
Cards ov * Rockies.... Cards went 1-2 and Rockies 2-2
*Yanks ov *Tampa.... Yanks went 2-2 and Tampa 1-3
*Orioles ov Seattle.... O's went 1-3 and Mariners 2-2
Jays ov * Royals.... Jays went 2-2 and Royals 1-3
*Pitt ov * Stros.... Pitt went 3-1 and Stros 0-4
Bravos ov *Cubs.... Braves went 1-3 and Cubs 3-0
*Zona ov *Diego.... Zona went 2-2 and Diego 3-1
Brewers ov *Marlins.... Brewers went 2-1 and Marlins 3-0
*Boston ov *Oakland.... Red Sox went 2-1 and A's 1-2
*Halos ov *Tribe.... Halos went 2-2 and Tribe 3-1
*Detriot ov *Twins.... Tigers went 2-1 and Twins 3-1
That's 12 heavy faves and I'm willing to say only 4 win maybe 5 lets sit back and wait
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Great thread here - tremendous informationComment -
Why is everyone on the Dodgers? Because of last night's slop fest?
FYI, the Reds batted .419 vs Billingsley last year AND he's 1-3 at home this year.Comment -
Thanks Jeff that means a lot! You have been doing this longer than I have and are one of the few whose threads I follow and get good info from. Let's keep digging and looking for those angles!Comment -
Hundred bombs I agree! Dodgers have had a great year until recently however they are a name brand and to the casual bettor that means $$ lol. The win last night may have sparked some new faith in the team. However anyone who watched that sad excuse for a little league game witnessed how most of those runs were scored. I put Cincy in my 4t par tonight. GLComment -
Also Bailey is 4-2 away this year with an ERA about 3 whereas at home it's over 5. Pair that with Billingsley's awful record and their pedestrian lineup and it's CIN all the way.Comment -
I usually bet dawgs and a lot of the time it's agienst the public. I have done very poorly on Sunday's this season. It got so bad I took a couple Sunday's off. I agree there has to be more to it than just the day of the week. Like long road trips coming to an end. I will be looking at this angel more closely now. Anyone know a site were we can back test this information easily?Comment -
RepostComment -
I actually think the day of the week has a lot to do with it Venture. Think about it Sunday is the day most series come to an end and the fave will almost always be the better team obviously. And I think on Sundays the better team has a little more motivation to end the series on a high note by winning. On Monday you may see more of a letdown factor maybe due to traveling or having a good weekend and feeling fat and happy.Comment -
Look at that DET/MIN game...Comment -
Missed one heavy fave today bringing the total to 11. Again an asterisk means they traveled and the record is how each team fared over the weekend going back to Friday.
*Detroit ov *Minny... Detroit went 2-1 and Twins 3-1Comment -
looks like big dogs are barking today. keep track of this, your sunday/monday angle is interesting...Comment -
Yep Genghis 4 outta 7 heavy faves are losing and 2 of them are clinging on to a 1 run lead early!Comment -
Some more weekends:
Best part is on Monday, you only need to hit 50%.
Sunday 6/17 --5-3
Monday 6/18 -- 3-3
Sunday 6/10 -- 4-1
Monday 6/11 -- 1-0 (only 4 games on schedule)
Sunday 6/3 -- 4-2
Monday 6/4 -- 1-3
Sunday 5/27 -- 4-1
Monday 5/28 -- 2-1
Sunday 5/20 -- 3-4
Monday 5/21 -- 2-3Comment -
This is a new thread obviously and one I am just starting to try to find an angle as to why heavy faves struggle on Mondays. As noted above there are 5 teams that are heavy public bets tonight that did not travel last night and were sitting home waiting. Those teams are Cards, Brewers, Toronto, Atlanta, and later on Dodgers. Outta those 5 games 4 are in progress and not looking too sweet for their backers. Out of those are 2 real shockers getting ready to maybe take place the Cards facing the hopeless Rockies with the gas can Outman pitching have tied it up. And Mr. I don't lose home games Greinke getting taxed in Brewland. Dodger backers I would start worrying now lol
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Update... I just checked closing #'s and we had a switch. Late steam on Reds took the $ to even so L.A. is not a heavy fave! Late steam on Red Sox makes them a heavy fave. So we still have 11 to watch and I updated the games in box 12 above. So far the dogs have been barking tonight. Heavy bet faves are 2-4 to start the night!Comment -
If you're going to go with the closing line, then that's fine. Your system, your parameters. However, I respectfully caution you against changing this (ie going with a mid-day line or the opening line) in order to make the results look favorable.Comment -
Yeah you have a point there EV! Not trying to make the results more favorable in any way. From here on I guess going with lines 2 hours prior to 1st pitch would make more sense. And give me time to get every team included that fits. Gonna go ahead and add Dodgers back in they were still ov 60% an hour before game and did not even out till just minutes prior. Red Sox will still apply though.Comment -
One thing is for sure ... neither the faves or dogs always win, so if the faves win be on the lookout for the dogs, and if the dogs win, be on the lookout for the faves.Comment -
"Did somebody say fair warning.. lord strike that poor boy down" The mighty VH! Well hopefully you chalk guys heeded my warning tonight. I stated earlier only 4-5 heavy chalk games would survive this night. And R.P. was right on the $$. We still have 1 game pending and the writing is on the wall in that one. Dogs barked loud tonight!Comment -
Final results for our Monday chalk teams
Pitt = Winner
Halos= Winner
Tigers= Loser
Jays= Loser
Bravos= Loser
Yanks= Loser
Brewers= Winner
Cards= Winner
Zona= Loser
Orioles= Loser
Red Sox= Loser
Dodgers= Loser
Final results for Sunday 7-1 = Faves 11-2 (84.6%)
Final results for Monday 7-2 = Faves 4-8 (33.3%)
Take this info for what it's worth and keep an eye out for yourself. Hope maybe this helps at least a couple people going forward. Dog lovers tread with caution on Sunday. And Chalk lovers beware of Mondays the dogs will bite! Anyone who may think I'm crazy... well take a closer look at my name. How do you think I wound up in the cuckoo's nest lol. GL and good winnings boys!
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Just a reminder Sunday is public rake day! Don't have any #'s yet on what the pub is heavy on however I can give you a list blindly of who will be getting most of the action on Sunday. For all of u dog lovers that just blind bet all or mostly dogs take a second look before fading the following teams.
Cards
Mets
Nats
Pirates
Reds
Tigers
Angels
RangersComment
