How Much Value Do You Place on Trends/Stats?

[brahmabull117]

I see a lot of people who are huge believers of trends/stats and others who think it's all complete bullsh*t



Personally, I'm somewhere in between. I think that recent trends for a team generally show the kind of momentum, energy and confidence that they're playing with. A team on a hot streak will often times have the confidence to overcome obstacles that will kill a struggling team. I'm not a big fan of past season trends anymore though. I feel like it's just too hard to derive any value out of those because you simply don't know all the circumstances around that previous game. It's possible that a guy could have struggled last season against a certain team and that he's been untouchable since that certain point....if he faced that team again, he will likely dominate because he's playing with a lot better execution and mechanics since the last time they faced off



I think the best stats to evaluate a team is the last month or so of play. The biggest benefit of trends is that they help you figure out when a team will hit a hot streak and when a team will hit a cold streak. If you see a team lose 3 out of 4 in demoralizing fashion and then they're facing a good team that matches up very well with them, you know that you are likely to see a bit of a losing streak



At the end of the day, gambling is the same thing as stock market. You gotta anticipate which teams will go up and which teams will go down in value based on performance and stats/trends can help you do that if you look at the most relevant ones

[Squirrel Kokomo]

i tried to give you points, but it wouldn't let me. i think i gave you points earlier, and most of my points in the future will go to you.

your comedy is unrivaled in the mlb section.

[brahmabull117]

i tried to give you points, but it wouldn't let me. i think i gave you points earlier, and most of my points in the future will go to you.

your comedy is unrivaled in the mlb section.

Dude don't give me your F*cking sbr points (which are of no value to me anyways) if you're not going to contribute in this thread

[Linngari]

If you don't look at trends or stats then wouldnt you just be guessing?

I disagree about it being like the stockmarket. In stocks, a portfolio spread is generally the way to go however in mlb betting I get the best results when I go heavy on just one or two plays and on any night the 'market' generally fails me.

[pattymayo]

Groundbreaking stuff here

I can speak on all of SBR's behalf when I say we are so glad to have you here

[ShogunRua]

i tried to give you points, but it wouldn't let me. i think i gave you points earlier, and most of my points in the future will go to you.

your comedy is unrivaled in the mlb section.

[ShogunRua]

this Brahma guy is a genius

[brahmabull117]

If you don't look at trends or stats then wouldnt you just be guessing?

A lot of people here like to do their betting on reverse line movements. Others like Nocoin like to study lines and bet on ones that look "too good to be true". Some people like Love the action exclusively bet on mathematical analysis

I disagree about it being like the stockmarket. In stocks, a portfolio spread is generally the way to go however in mlb betting I get the best results when I go heavy on just one or two plays and on any night the 'market' generally fails me.

the general theory is the same though - you gotta find undervalued or overvalued teams

[Squirrel Kokomo]

I see a lot of people who are huge believers of brahmabull and others who think it's all complete bullsh*t

op .

[hydrosmak]

You are progressing quite nicely Brahma. By the end of the season you just might have this gambling thing whipped.

[BiffTFinancial]

i think that trends are useless, but stats are huge. except on Mondays, when it's the opposite.

[JR007]

stats and trends are reflections of the past, all about the price,...you will hit and miss with stats and trends'

do not bet teams bet.... prices, otherwise "shuffle deck chairs on the titanic"

[brahmabull117]

stats and trends are reflections of the past

Not really. Some trends are reflections of the past, but say the cubs having a .600 OPS against lefties this year is not a reflection of anything, it's an assessment of the team's lack of ability to hit lefties

[JR007]

sure, but it is reflected in the pricing, you are looking for market error, their are modeling guys
whom compare and contrast the market price to their own......I follow guys on other websites
that do this,.............read justin, book "conquering risk", that will give you a understanding of
what I am talking about

[brahmabull117]

sure, but it is reflected in the pricing

Really? Then how are the Cubs, Padres and Tigers a combined $-4500 dollars on the season?

[JR007]

you must of got that over at covers,.....go over to www.peepsplace.com. and review, some of the posters,........

[brahmabull117]

you must of got that over at covers

No, it's available on this site

[Big Bear]

sure, but it is reflected in the pricing, you are looking for market error, their are modeling guys
whom compare and contrast the market price to their own......I follow guys on other websites
that do this,.............read justin, book "conquering risk", that will give you a understanding of
what I am talking about

who is that in your avatar?

[ShogunRua]

I thought for a split second there that brahma had returned.