Mr. Statistics Season Long MLBl Thread

[brahmabull117]

Chicago Cubs +143

Yes, the Chicago Cubs are 6-21 on the road; fact. But I love the way Dempster has pitched on the road this season (away from Wriggly, which is a large reason he got rocked by the Padres at home in his last outing). Dempster has a 1.65 ERA away this season, and I don't see that trend changing with this stale Brewer offense. Ryan Bruan is coming back from an injury, but most of this offense on the Brewer team has come from Bruan, who has hit only .239 off Dempster in his career. In fact, the Brewers have no legitimate left hand threat, giving Dempster an even bigger advantage.

I love my pitching match-up and I'm willing to lay down a unit on Dempster to keep this game close and hopefully the Cubs will scratch out a couple runs.

You guys gotta stop putting money on Dempster. That era is sooo tempting but he's winless for a reason - the cubs offense and bullpen is fukin awful. He's also facing a guy in Gallardo who has been pitching well and has completely dominated the cubs in recent history (1 run or fewer in 4 out of 5 starts)


Maybe Dempster wins like 1-0 or 2-1 but you're better off just putting the money on the under in that case. Cubs might get shutout in this game

[Statistics]

San Francisco Giants -105

I have been eyeing this play for a while now, following Lincecum closely to see when he'll turn the corner. He allowed 2 runs over 7 IP in his last start, but lost due to a lack of run support. He hasn't looked completely lost this season, in fact; he's looked pretty dominant at times. His trouble has come from one inning of implosion that usually occurs around the 5th or 6th inning. Last start, Lincecum showed poised as he pitched through a couple tight spots; and overall, had a quality game.

I think Lincecum has turned a corner this season and he's beginning to regain his usual form. At a price of -105, the value here is just too good to pass up.

In addition, I believe Bochy will keep Lincecum on a short leash and pull him at the first sign of a meltdown. His bullpen has been fresh coming off absolute monster starts by Cain, Bumgarner, Zito, and Vogelsong; whom averaged around 8 IP against CHC.

The Giants have hit an absolute stride lately and have been playing solid error free baseball. I would like to see the situational hitting go up, but the opportunities are there.

The Padres have been crap lately, and are playing at a low point in the season.

I see Lincecum having a great game, but if that doesn't work out; the bullpen is fresher than opening day.

Value is there, I'll take the Giants.

[brahmabull117]

San Francisco Giants -105

I have been eyeing this play for a while now, following Lincecum closely to see when he'll turn the corner. He allowed 2 runs over 7 IP in his last start, but lost due to a lack of run support. He hasn't looked completely lost this season, in fact; he's looked pretty dominant at times. His trouble has come from one inning of implosion that usually occurs around the 5th or 6th inning. Last start, Lincecum showed poised as he pitched through a couple tight spots; and overall, had a quality game.

I think Lincecum has turned a corner this season and he's beginning to regain his usual form. At a price of -105, the value here is just too good to pass up.

In addition, I believe Bochy will keep Lincecum on a short leash and pull him at the first sign of a meltdown. His bullpen has been fresh coming off absolute monster starts by Cain, Bumgarner, Zito, and Vogelsong; whom averaged around 8 IP against CHC.

The Giants have hit an absolute stride lately and have been playing solid error free baseball. I would like to see the situational hitting go up, but the opportunities are there.

The Padres have been crap lately, and are playing at a low point in the season.

I see Lincecum having a great game, but if that doesn't work out; the bullpen is fresher than opening day.

Value is there, I'll take the Giants.

Now this play I like. What scares me though is Lincecum's control struggles this year - they were even apparent in a successful start last time out. He's still striking out a ton of guys but just can't seem to get his walks down. Giant should win though if it's late and close



Did you check out my thread for the Red Sox - 1.5? I fully believe that's the best play of the day. You can do Sox - 155 if you don't want to risk winning the game but losing the bet but I think you have easily a 50% chance of sox winning by more than 1 run

[taxe91]

Plays for 6/4:

Texas -160

Laying some huge chalk here. The Oakland A's are sending out RP Travis Blackey to the mound to face the Rangers. Blackey started the season with the Giants and was designated for assignment due to his lack of effectiveness. Signed by the A's in an attempt to shore up their pen, and has been average at best in limited time. The A's are going with a committee to fill in their 5th starter role and Blackey is first to get a shot; against arguably the best offense in the MLB.

Rangers were shut down by top talent in Parker, but Blackey is nothing more than a journeyman RP looking to collect his minimum MLB paycheck and get on with it. Rangers are 16-6 coming off losses while the A's are 10-12 coming off victories.

It is true that Derrick Holland got lit up by the Mariners last start, but he's been terrible at home and above average on the road.

I don't see a scenario where the Rangers don't light up Blackey for a good 5 runs over 6 IP.

not a fan of the -1.5 in this spot?

[brahmabull117]

not a fan of the -1.5 in this spot?

If you're going to bet the Rangers - ALWAYS lay the - 1.5



28 out of their 33 wins this year have been by more than 2 runs - you're just wasting a ton of juice and not capitalizing on easy + money as they simply don't win close games. They are either going to lose or likely win by 4 or 5 runs. I'm staying away from this game though cause they've been struggling recently all around

[Statistics]

My model doesn't really take into account run lines; since it's based on win shares.

But -1.5 runs certainly looks like a nice play to get the Rangers at even money. Most of the Rangers victories have been by 2+ run, so it certainly looks like a great play.

I'll consider laying down an extra 'off the books' unit on the Rangers RL, but won't put it as an official system play.

[brahmabull117]

My model doesn't really take into account run lines; since it's based on win shares.

But -1.5 runs certainly looks like a nice play to get the Rangers at even money. Most of the Rangers victories have been by 2+ run, so it certainly looks like a great play.

I'll consider laying down an extra 'off the books' unit on the Rangers RL, but won't put it as an official system play.

Yea I think you're missing out on big opportunities if you don't play the runline regularly with certain teams



Hell 80% of the Yankees' wins last season were by 2+ runs. In fact, they won 78 out of 162 games played by more than 2+ runs. You would have made a lot of money last year just blind playing - 1.5 in all of their games

[taxe91]

28 out of their 33 wins this year have been by more than 2 runs - you're just wasting a ton of juice and not capitalizing on easy + money as they simply don't win close games. They are either going to lose or likely win by 4 or 5 runs. I'm staying away from this game though cause they've been struggling recently all around

Hell 80% of the Yankees' wins last season were by 2+ runs. In fact, they won 78 out of 162 games played by more than 2+ runs. You would have made a lot of money last year just blind playing - 1.5 in all of their games

somebodys discovered the situational reports on baseball-reference

[brahmabull117]

somebodys discovered the situational reports on baseball-reference

no, that's good Ole individual game by game research

[taxe91]

no, that's good Ole individual game by game research

you should probably use the baseball-reference reports then, much quicker than game by game. and it removes margin for error, the 2011 yankees won 76 games by 2+ not 78

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17-14 plus 3.34 units

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Haven't had time to plug in my statistics tonight, but from the general looks of the lines......

Lean on sfg and houston

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I will lock in Houston +129.

Houston has been playing very well at home this season, going 17-12. Early season match up vs STL, the Astro took 2 of 3, and that was when the cards had a clue on how to play ball.

Wainwright took one game from Houston this season, but so did Norris from the cards.

Bud has been an absolute monster at home, while wainwright has been below league average.

Line is a little suspect, would have liked a +135 or higher due to the Wainwright name factor, as well as the cards looking to rebound after dropping a close game. I'd imagine Vegas wants action on stl.

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SFG -132

Waited until the line-ups were out to see if SF was sitting out an starters, they are not, so I'll lock them in.

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18-15 +3.09

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SFG -138

I love Matt Cain and the Giants pitching down in San Diego. Cain has been an absolute monster all season and I don't see that trend changing anytime soon. Marquis just got released by the Twins (yes, the Twins) and got picked up by the Padres. The Giants bats are hot, and I don't see why they shouldn't have continued success versus Marquis.

What worries me is the bullpen for the Giants. They have been riddled with injuries and seemed pretty ineffective the first two games of the series. However, Matt Cain is an absolute work horse, and I don't see this game becoming a bullpen game. Romo looked good today in his save outing, and Lopez and Affedlt are ready to go.

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Looking for the Giants to wrap this one up....

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19-15 +3.84 units

Heavy lean on Texas tmr versus Giants. Have been following the Giants a lot lately, and I think this is a let down spot.

Posey sitting, Melky leaves game with hammy problem; and the overall team is just tired.

Zito throwing batting practice tmr.

[brahmabull117]

Good stuff, I was on the giants as well


I'm not seeing much tomorrow with interleague play starting. I'm thinking about fading the cubs on the road against a red hot Twins team

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Have been going at a decent pace thus far.

I have been tailing and following the Giants a lot lately and have a good grasp on how they are doing. I'm definitely seeing a slight letdown by Zito and the team as a whole. The bullpen is battered, the position players are tired, Posey is likely sitting, and they will be super cautious with Melky who strained a hammy and left the game.

Zito's numbers have been masked by luck and weak offense and he will have a hard time fooling a real professional MLB team.
I have been staking this one out for a while and I am going to make a three unit play on the Texas run line.

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Risk 3 units Texas -1.5 RL. +125

[taxe91]

why is posey sitting against texas?

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Zito nutcases needs a personal catcher Sanchez

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20-15 +7.59 units

Looking good!