Mr. Statistics Season Long MLBl Thread

[Statistics]

Hello Folks! This is my first post on the SBR forums, but I am fairly knowledgeable about the mathematics behind sports wagering.

A little background information about myself, I did my undergraduate studies at the University of California - Los Angeles (UCLA) with a major in Statistics. I am currently enrolled in a graduate studies program at the University of California - Berkeley within the Statistics department. Since a young age, I've always had a passion for sports and felt that numbers could provide an objective means for determining winners and losers. Of course, I was well versed in SABRmetrics by the time the internet came full swing; and have done extensive research within baseball both recreational and professional (for my studies). I had recently taken up wagering small amounts on my stipend for recreational purposes and used my background to help me out!

I have created a small statistical model which takes into account expected win shares of MLB teams depending on statistics such as OBP, SLG, ERA, WHIP, and defensive zone ratings. The model itself took quite a while to develop but from a layman's point of view; I ran many (and I emphasize many) historical regressions taking account the aforementioned statistics to create an accurate assessments of expected win shares of MLB teams at a certain point in time.

Basically, my model churns out the EV of any bet (head to head; straight up) for any MLB game. Obviously I'm going to win some and lose some, but if my system is accurate, my +EV plays should, in the long run, come out with some positive units!

Without any further ado, here are my 'model plays' on the SBR forum!

San Francisco Giants -113
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +111
Minnesota Twins +105

All bets are flat 1 unit bets. I.E 1 unit to win 1.11 units; or 1 unit to win .885 units.

[Bettalent]

Good luck Statistics, this will be interesting!

[taxe91]

will keep posted on this.

have you backtested/trialled this or are you jumping straight into it with your bankroll?

[Koldazzice]

Good luck stats

[Statistics]

Off to a steady start!

Current Plays: 2-1 (+.994 units)

Currently have a good amount of plays lined up for Monday 5/28:

St. Louis Cardinals +105
Chicago Whitesox +103
Baltimore Orioles +131
Seattle Mariners +195

Those are in; still waiting on the line to come out for the Cubs, looking to possibly put a unit on them.

As usual, 1 unit flat bet.

[Statistics]

Added Chicago Cubs -141

[Statistics]

Nice 3-0 start for the day!

[merikson]

3-1 with all dogs is very impressive, especially when the loss came from a huge dog. Keep it up!

[merikson]

3-1 with all dogs is very impressive, especially when the loss came from a huge dog. Keep it up!

Sorry, 2-2, but still a winning day.

[tb1984]

Good luck

[Statistics]

Didn't finish off strong, but they were pretty large dogs.

Currently: 5-3 (+1.78 units)

Plays for Tuesday 5/29:

Baltimore +131
Chicago Whitesox +147
Washington Nationals +127

[Statistics]

A negative day, but I'll keep grinding through.

Currently 6-5 (+1.25 units)

Plays for 5/30

Tigers +135
Cardinals +111
Diamondbacks +118
Dodgers -155

[Statistics]

7-8 (-.57 units)

One play today

Houston Astros +105

[Statistics]

7-9 (-1.57 units)

I've looked over the system and I feel like the factors I've taken into account don't apply to the whole game; so I'm only betting first five innings to see how it goes...

[Ari3Manesh]

gimme something good for today stats

[Statistics]

Alright fellas, here are my picks today, lets see if lady luck turns it around for me.

MLB Baseball 959 Pittsburgh Pirates 1st 5 Innings +130*
MLB Baseball 979 Texas Rangers 1st 5 Innings -116*
MLB Baseball 978 Chicago White Sox 1st 5 Innings -130*
MLB Baseball 973 Baltimore Orioles 1st 5 Innings +149*

[Statistics]

A fairly successful day!

10-10 (+.36 units)

[Statistics]

Have some plays lined up for Saturday.Will have them posted after the book post the prop bets for first five innings. Hoping to turn my luck around with this minor adjustment!

[Statistics]

Plays are in:

MLB Baseball 923 Seattle Mariners 1st 5 Innings +135*
MLB Baseball 917 Boston Red Sox 1st 5 Innings -115*
MLB Baseball 916 Houston Astros 1st 5 Innings +112*
MLB Baseball 907 Los Angeles Dodgers 1st 5 Innings +130*

[Statistics]

12-11-1 plus 1.53 units

[Statistics]

After doing a bit of research, it appears that I'm getting a ton more value using the 5 cent overnight lines with 5dimes since my system generally produces dogs. With that said, I have adjusted my model a bit to take into account bullpen fatigue and performance in addition to the current factors I use.

I know you guys would most likely want some reasoning behind my picks, such as this player has been hot for his past five starts or this team is bound to bounce back after a crushing loss; but I can't provide that because I only take into account current statistics. This most likely explains why my model produces mostly underdogs because statistically speaking, they are undervalued in terms of EV when taking win shares into account (because of perceived public perception).

Anyhow, two plays for Sunday 6/3:

Baltimore +129
Washington -136

[Statistics]

12-13-1 (-.47 units)

Just keep grinding through....

[brahmabull117]

12-13-1 (-.47 units)

Just keep grinding through....

you should evaluate the teams a little first before you bet though I would say. The reason the Orioles for example came up so high in your system is because they've played so well so far this year. In all likelyhood though, they will finish 90-95 losses so it's a good idea to fade them from now on



Really same thing with the Nationals. I think that team is a fraud as well, they'll be a .500 team at best

[jbart28]

You need to physically look at the games and how teams are playing. Your system is missing a lot of human knowledge that computers cannot judge. Good luck.

Of course, if you didn't play baseball or don't know that much about it then either start learning and stop betting for now, or just go straight gigabet crazy and grind it out. Take care.

[Statistics]

Alright, I've adjusted my betting style to actually include outside 'handicapping' from my personal opinions in addition to my system plays. I'm now basically filtering my systems play with my personal observations. I'll have some short write ups along with my plays now.

San Francisco Giants -133

Vogelsong has been on an absolute tear at home this season, more so in his recent starts. Samardzija has been decent this season, but hasn't done especially well on the road.

I feel the Giants here are at a good price because of the 'anti-sweep' factor, but the Cubs have been terrible lately and the Giants have been hot.

Los Angeles Dodgers -120

The Dodgers have been slumping lately, true. However, they have their CY Young Kershaw on the mound and at a price of -120 it's hard to pass up, especially considering the Phillies Worley is coming back from the DL and hasn't pitched well at home.

Oakland +124

I love the pitching match-up I'm getting here with Parker at home versus Feldman on the road. Texas does have that monster offense, but they have been on a skid of late dropping 4 of their last 5 to division rival LAA; the A's haven't been much better (to say the least). I'm seeing two stagnant teams right now and like the pitching value I'm getting with Parker at home.

[ipickwinners]

just so u know....

KERSHAW is 0-5 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 5.73 and a WHIP of 1.487.

[ipickwinners]

oakland has won 1 game out of their last 11....parker has lost his last 4 starts...i know u r getting +124...but that doesnt seem like a good be

[brahmabull117]

oakland +124 is not a good value with how hot the rangers have been on the road (around 18-11 I believe) and they have also owned OAK in the past (7-3 last 10 matchups)


giants is an awesome play though, far and away best play of the day

[Statistics]

Kershaw might have bad career stats against the Phillies, but pitchers pitch against players, not the uniform. The Phillies are a completely different team this year in terms of their offensive players. True that Kershaw had a rough outing last time, but I feel a pitcher of Kershaw's caliber will be able to pitch past it. Worley is coming fresh off the DL and I love the value with Kershaw.

[Statistics]

Looks like we're in the green today!

We'll see if Oakland can put the hammer down.

[jbart28]

Nice night. Good work

[jlee]

you should also consider injuries as a factor... kemp, braun/lucroy are pretty big injuries that'll hurt a team's offense.

[Statistics]

15-13-1 (+2.36 units)

[Statistics]

Plays for 6/4:

Texas -160

Laying some huge chalk here. The Oakland A's are sending out RP Travis Blackey to the mound to face the Rangers. Blackey started the season with the Giants and was designated for assignment due to his lack of effectiveness. Signed by the A's in an attempt to shore up their pen, and has been average at best in limited time. The A's are going with a committee to fill in their 5th starter role and Blackey is first to get a shot; against arguably the best offense in the MLB.

Rangers were shut down by top talent in Parker, but Blackey is nothing more than a journeyman RP looking to collect his minimum MLB paycheck and get on with it. Rangers are 16-6 coming off losses while the A's are 10-12 coming off victories.

It is true that Derrick Holland got lit up by the Mariners last start, but he's been terrible at home and above average on the road.

I don't see a scenario where the Rangers don't light up Blackey for a good 5 runs over 6 IP.

[Statistics]

Chicago Cubs +143

Yes, the Chicago Cubs are 6-21 on the road; fact. But I love the way Dempster has pitched on the road this season (away from Wriggly, which is a large reason he got rocked by the Padres at home in his last outing). Dempster has a 1.65 ERA away this season, and I don't see that trend changing with this stale Brewer offense. Ryan Bruan is coming back from an injury, but most of this offense on the Brewer team has come from Bruan, who has hit only .239 off Dempster in his career. In fact, the Brewers have no legitimate left hand threat, giving Dempster an even bigger advantage.

I love my pitching match-up and I'm willing to lay down a unit on Dempster to keep this game close and hopefully the Cubs will scratch out a couple runs.