EP36's College Dogpile

[EaglesPhan36]

May 10: Mississippi State -160
The Diamond Dogs host Tennessee in the 2nd game of this series after the Vols won the opener. Give the pitching edge today to Miss State. Ross Mitchel, the lefty is on the mound. He sports a 2.12 ERA and .220 BAA. He has split time between the pen and rotation, but has become a weekend anchor in SEC play. Tennessee puts senior Nick Williams on the mound. He is 5-4 with a 3.73 ERA and .241 BAA. He has been much more inconsistent than Mitchell. He pitched very well last wekend against Kentucky, but struggled two starts in a row before that. Offensively, very similar run production and batting average. The Vols have scored about 20 more runs than Miss State. Mitchell should be a good guy to put up against the Vols' top hitters, two of which are lefties. Miss State as usual has a good pen, a bit better than Tennessee. Both teams are good defensively, the Bulldogs being better overall. Tennessee has only won one road series in the SEC, so this would be big for them - but Mississippi State needs momentum as the season winds down. With Mitchell, I think they get the edge to start today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Oklahoma State wins 6-4. 1st half of the parlay is complete.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wolfpack busting it open in the 4th, up 9-2

[EaglesPhan36]

State has had the bases loaded with one out in the 7th, runner get to 3rd with two outs in the 8th and now had runners on the corner with one out and have yet to score in a 0-0 game. Sheesh.

NC State rolled, parlay complete!

[EaglesPhan36]

Another failure to score for Miss State. I'll be surprised if Tennessee doesn't sneak out a win with all the opps the Bulldogs have blown.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dogs finally get it done in the 10th! 1-0 Miss State wins. Sweep o' the day. Should have some lines posted tomorrow and then we're into the final week of the regular season before Magic Time - the Regionals, Supers & CWS!

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Record: 10-7 [+5.36]

[EaglesPhan36]

May 11: Nebraska -120
Cornhuskers on the road against Michigan State. They won the opener 5-3. It's a battle of offense vs. pitching. State owns the pitching advantage with Alleman on the mound. He sports a 2.77 ERA and a .212 BAA. He has had walk issues at times with 30 in 81.1 IP. Alleman has struggled at-times in conference play. Nebraska puts Bummer on the bump. He has a 4.26 ERA and a .296 BAA. Walks are a bugaboo for him as well, so if he's hitting his spots and not walking batters - look for Nebraska to be in good shape. He has been capable of good performances against weaker offenses and that's what State is for the most part. Offensively, no comparison. The Huskers have scored almost 100 more runs than State and lead the Big 10 with a .303 average. Both teams have adequate bullpens. Edge in D to Nebraska.

[EaglesPhan36]

Rack it up. 4-1 Nebraska wins.

2014 Record: 11-7 [+6.36]

[EaglesPhan36]

Huge SEC series with S.Carolina & Vanderbilt this weekend. Cannot believe there was no line for the game tonight. Hopefully we'll see some lines posted for the final regular season weekend.

Next weekend = Conference Tournaments.

[EaglesPhan36]

5dimes appears to be scared to post lines this week. Asked them twice andthey said they were "gathering information." Hopefully they don't puss out all weekend.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pussies. Better have some lines up tomorrow. I'll do your research for you assholes.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 17: Tennessee +100 @ 1pm ET
Vols need to win to get to the SEC tournament. It would be their first trip to the postseason since 2007. Gators have the SEC regular season title wrapped up, so the incentive should be stronger for the Vols on Senior Day. Gators have nipped Tennessee in the first two games of the series, 6-5 in 11 innings and 4-2 yesterday. Vols send out Cox, their best starter with a 2.05 ERA. Danny Young goes for FLA. He has a 2.16 ERA, but his .273 BAA suggests he will put runners on base. It's the Vols who need to cash in on those opps. Tennessee has actually scored 50+ runs more than Florida, so offensively they have a more consistent squad. The Gators pitching is what propels them. If the Vols can get up early, that would help grearly.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 17: [Parlay] LSU + Virginia @ +104
LSU looking for the sweep at Auburn and a top four seed in the SEC tournament. Auburn is in desperation mode, needing a win and some help to get into the postseason tournament. So desperate that they are sending out Dillon Overton for the seconr time this series! He got lit up for six runs in the opener against LSU in two innings. Virginia has not dropped an ACC series all year, so they need a win today to preserve that. Waddell goes for the Wahoos. Kaden for Wake Forest. UVA bounced back in the 2nd game of the DH yesterday with a 7-2 win after Wake shocked them with three runs in the 9th to win 6-5. Waddell has a 2.75 ERA and .230 BAA. Kaden has a 3.83 ERA and a BAA at .236. He can be solid, but he does yield a lot of hits which Virginia can use to push runners around the base paths. Wake needs the win to try and sneak into the ACC tournament, but they go against a top notch pitching staff again that has held them in-check for most of this series.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 17: Alabama -130 @ 4pm ET
Kamplain starts for the Tide. Preston Brown goes for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs have won the first two games of the series and remain a half game out of 1st place in the SEC West behind Ole Miss. 'Bama is merely playing for SEC tournament seeding, but more so for confidence. They have slumped down the stretch. Kamplain though should give them a shot again today after yesterdy's 1-0 pitcher's duel and loss. Kamplain com in 2/3 comes in off a CG win over LSU on the road last week and has been rock solid of late, beating South Carolina a couple series ago. In SEC play, his ERA is 3.62 ERA. Brown for Miss State has struggled with a 4.87 ERA. The Bulldogs pen will be ready if he falters early and they are outstanding. Offenses are about even runs scoring wise, although the Tide possess some of the best power in D1. If Kamplain can keep State in check and the Tide can scratch a couple runs out along the way - this is a good match-up for them, especially with them in need of a win for their confidence.

[EaglesPhan36]

Virginia's offense sucks today. Losing 1-0.

[EaglesPhan36]

Vols have a chance to close in the 9th, up 7-5.

UVA knotted it at 1, but their pen is about to blow that right back. Merp.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright. Early plays. Vols win 7-5. Parlay in peril. LSU winning over Auburn 4-1 and about to add more. Virginia probably dead, down 4-1 now in the 6th. Their offense really isn't great - so rallying late is not their forte. Would be nice if they paid Wake back from Game 1 with a rally, but I'm pretty much counting that parlay as a loss.

So, go Bama and get in the black for the day. Will be looking over the night slate in a bit.

[EaglesPhan36]

Virginia scored once in the 9th and left the bases loaded, losers 4-3. Parlay fail. Urg.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 17: Washington +220 @ 7pm ET
0.5 unit play here. These two teams are tied for 1st place and there is very little to separate them in the PAC-12. The Huskies broke a double digit winning streak for OSU by winning the opener, 4-2. Today, the pitching match-up is mouth watering. Fry for OSU. Davis for UW. Fry is 7-1 with a 1.14 ERA in PAC-12 play. Davis is 7-0 with a 1.35 ERA in conference play. The two offenses are about dead even in most stats. UW is batting .290 with 300 runs scored. OSU is batting .282 with 306 runs scored. OSU has the deeper overall pitching staff with a superb 2.17 team ERA. UW is respectable @ 3.28. Both teams are near the top of the conference in fielding percentage, so both defenses are great. With all of that, getting +180 is good enough to try for me. It's a tough task to beat the Beavers once @ home, where they have dropped only four games - but the Huskies are hot and riding high on confidence with a 15-3 road mark. They may lose, but this game should be tight and with the right bounce - they could easily shock OSU again and assume outright possession of 1st place.

[ncaabaseball7]

LATE GAMES:

• Washington @ Oregon St: both teams tied for the Pac-12 lead, and tough matchup on the hill with Tyler Davis (10-1, 1.77 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) going for Washington and Jace Fry (10-1, 1.64 ERA, 0.90 WHIP). I think Oregon State is the best team in the country, and even though Fry is their normal sunday guy he is as good as any ace in the Pac-12. Oregon State is 19-4 at home, so very tough to see them losing two in a row. I lean Oregon State but -220 is too much juice. I think the value is more on Oregon State tomorrow with Ace Wetzler going against Brigham, who has struggled as of late. Oregon State 66% chance of winning, pass.
• South Alabama @ Troy: Both teams are bad, and Troy is going for the sweep at home. Troy 62% chance of winning, pass.
• Texas @ Kansas State: This line opened at -190 Texas, which has a TON of value. Horns coming off a 12-0 no-hitter, and Kansas State has packed their bags. They are officially out of contention for the Big 12 tournament and postseason, and they have by-far the worst pitching in the Big 12. Their offense is only hitting .230 in the Big 12, and they've lost 11 straight Big 12 games. Texas was once considered an Omaha contender with elite pitching, and I their offense awoke last night against the medicore arms of Kansas State. Nathan Thornhill starting for Texas, and your getting a proven arm with great #s for the Longhorns against a freshman for K-State with a team that has counted the days till the end of the season. Horns are on the upswing, and I like them in this spot. Texas 72% chance of winning, large play on Longhorns at -190, small play at -300.
• Long Beach State @ Riverside: This line is backwards, so play on LB State. The Dirtbags are playing great baseball, as they beat Fullerton 2/3, UCSB 2/3, Poly 2/3, and swept Hawaii. LB State made some costly errors in last nights game, and I don't expect that to continue as they are one of the elite defensive teams on the west coast. Josh Frye goes for LB State, and the 6-foot-7 senior has good movement on his fastball and is the guy to lead LB State back in this series. Zach Varela goes for UC Riverside, and he has very average stuff across the board. These two are currently 3rd and 4th in the Big West conference and the dirtbags have won four straight series. If they lose this series they are likely out of the postseason discussion, so i think LB State comes back and wins here. Long Beach State 58% chance of winning, small play on Long Beach State at +125. Great value.
• Oregon @ UCLA: UCLA is done, and has lost 8 straight games. Their friday starter, Kaprielian, was really their best shot to win a game in this series. That being said, Oregon is much better at home and has yet to win a pac-12 road series in 2014. Senior Jeff Gold goes for Oregon, and he really has the receipe for success in 2014 (he doesn't allow free baserunners). He's 9-1 on the year, and he gives Oregon a great chance of going up 2-0 in this series. Grant Watson goes for UCLA, and the lefty has very average numbers this year. He's 4-8 and leads the Pac-12 in pickoffs this year, to go along with his 3.75 ERA. I don't trust Oregon offensively or on the road, but I'll put a small road play on Oregon -180. Oregon 62% chance of winning, small play.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice write-ups above. Alabama won. I concur with one of those picks as my last play today.

May 17: Long Beach State +125 @ 9pm ET

[EaglesPhan36]

One run might with this Washington-Oregon State game. Great pitching. Great defense. Well worth the +220 if it's a one run game, hopefully edging out on the right side!

[EaglesPhan36]

Boy oh boy, UW has had he better scoring opps late in this game. 0-0 still. Both starters have been as advertised.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well fukk. Oregon State uses a leadoff single in the 9th, sac bunt and double to win 1-0. Will take +220 any time with a chance to win late in a game like that. Great pitcher's duel. Tough loss for UW. Probably deserved better, but they couldn't get the big hit when they needed it

[ncaabaseball7]

SUNDAY LINES:
Not too many lines today as many of the weekend series ended yesterday.

*Oregon (-185) @ UCLA: Oregon 62% chance of winning. For me, this is a pass because neither team is good offensively and UCLA is absolutely terrible right now. The only way I would play this is if Oregon offered value, but Brando Tessar isn't consistent enough of a starter for me to back Oregon in this spot. He throws a ton of strikes which is key in 2014, but while UCLA has lost 9 straight and is headed nowhere, they scare me on this Sunday from laying -185 into the better Oregon team. Cody Poteet is capable of keeping UCLA in this ballgame, and UCLA actually has better offensive numbers in Pac-12 play than do the Dukes. I wouldn't back UCLA as a dog here because they have been terrible lately, so no play for me.

*Long Beach State (+115) @ UC Riverside. Riverside a 57% chance of winning, so a lot of value on the dog here. Long Beach State is the better team, and absoutely needs to win this game for their postseason resume. They have been playing great baseball lately, and cashed for us yesterday as a +125 dog. Nick Sabo goes for Long Beach State, and the 6-foot-5 junior has good command of a below-average fastball. He has pitched well down the stretch, but this game is more about Long Beach State being the better team. Riverside counters with Ben Douchette, and teams are hitting .329 off him. He is competitive and keeps his team in games, but Riverside will be without Nick Vilter, who is their best hitting at .306-9-29. He was their 5-hole hitter and shortstop, so now Riverside is limited offensively without their biggest power threat and shortstop. Their already shaky defense will not take a hit, and their offense isn't nearly as powerful with Vilter (who is lost for the year). They only could score 1 run yesterday without him, and he's being replaced by a guy that hit .215 last year with a lot of errors. I don't LOVE LB State in this spot, but they certainly offer good value here and are worth a play.

*Texas (-195) @ Kansas State: Texas a 64% favorite to win. Texas blew a 4-2 lead in the 9th yesterday with closer John Curtis, but i liked the way the Horns are swinging the bat. They are hitting with some power and being aggressive. Normal Friday starter Parker French goes today on the hill for the Horns, which makes me think they are treating this as a must-win for the Horns. French hasn't thrown yet this weekend due to being sick, and I'm surprised they have decided to throw him here instead of hold him for the Big 12 tournament, as they are already guaranteed the 5-seed and playing Texas Tech on Wednesday. Nonetheless, Texas seems to be heating up offensively and building some confidence. This is the last game of the year for Kansas State, and I imagine they will throw a variety of different people and try to get some of their seniors some playing time. They are starting a true freshman on the mound, so big advantage Texas. I don't think the freshman will go more than a few innings, but advantage Texas. Kansas State did build some momentum with their come-from-behind victory last night, but I think Texas is truly the better team with their ace on the mound against a true freshman. -195 is a lot of juice, but I feel comfortable taking it as the Horns are treating this as a must win situation. I would also feel comfortable doing a small parlay with Texas and LB State and Texas and Oregon St.

*Washington @ Oregon State (-215). Oregon State a 66% favorite. A lot of juice for two very good teams, but I have Oregon State as my top team in the country and they have their #1 starter on the hill here in Wetzler. He's been as close to unhittable this year as there is, with a 9-1 record, 0.94 ERA, and one of the lowest WHIP's in the country in 0.82. Now the big question mark, how will be respond coming off his suspension and his ongoing court case? I think he will be fine. This is a senior that has a lot of experience, and with Oregon State reinstating him and backing him, I think he will use that confidence and be fine. For Washington, they counter with Jeff Brigham, who is a a hard throwing righty. He has a lot of talent, but he hasn't been great down the stretch in Pac-12 play. He got hit hard against Utah and Cal, but this is a guy capable of shutting down an elite offense. I like how Oregon State matches up today more than any game this series, and while I usually wouldn't recommend taking such high juice on two very even teams, Oregon State should win today and I'm going to take them. Wetzler is one of the top 2-3 pitchers in all of college baseball, and Oregon State is at home (20-4 record) and playing for the Pac-12 title. I don't see them losing this series.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Record: 14-9 [+8.11]

[EaglesPhan36]

May 18: UCLA +145 @ 3pm ET
The defending National Champions finish their home schedule today against the Ducks. It's Senior Day too which can sometimes negate the negative feelings of a season. The Bruins have dropped nine straight, so there's very little momentum and their offense has been in shambles. They are not going to the postseason, so this really is the last hurrah for this club with a road series @ Washington to end the season. Still, they are usually in most games - it's simply been injuries and poor defense that have hit them more than usual. Cody Poteet goes for the Bruins. He's given them four straight quality starts in PAC-12 play, only to be let down by the bullpen. His ERA is 3.95, both in league play and overall. His BAA against is .264 in PAC-12 play. Oregon sends out Tessar who has a 2.81 ERA, but a .278 BAA. He allows base runners and pitches to contact with just five walks in 41.2 IP. The plus for UCLA is that Oregon has struggled offensively in conference play with just a .238 BA. UCLA is hitting .259 in conference play. The deeper Poteet goes in this game, the better as that would leave UCLA with better options in Schuh & Berg to try to close down the end of the game. An early lead would be massive for the Bruins. Their record when scoring 1st and scoring early the last couple years is stellar.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 18: Kansas State +275 @ 4:30pm ET
0.5 unit shot. K-State is letting a Freshman start just his 2nd game of the season, while Texas is starting their usual Friday guy in Parker French. French has been solid all season with a 2.27 ERA and .244 BAA. On the road though, he has been a bit more vulnerable. This will be K-State's final game of the season, while Texas will head to the Big 12 conference tournament this week. In essence, nothing to play for but pride for either team. The Horns are still very much a pitching reliant club as they have scored just 236 runs and bat .263 as a team. K-State has scored almost 75 more runs and they bat over .280 as a team, although much less in the Big 12. Being the final game of the season and riding a bit of a high on the 9th inning rally, I'm going to give K-State a shot here. They need to jump on French early, but a lack of motivation could give them a small advantage playing at home where they should be up to finish out the season strong.

[EaglesPhan36]

F-ing UCLA. Spelled it out to a T pretty much. Errors led to unearned runs that blew the lead that Poteet had worked them in to. Oregon goes ahead in the 11th. Doubtful UCLA does anything to match.

K-State had gone up early on UT, but their pen yacked it up too.

[EaglesPhan36]

K-State made a big comeback again with 3 in the 8th. 7-7 against UT in the 9th. If they win, I'll feel good even with the UCLA choke.
ill
Great week coming up with the conference tournaments leading into the Regionals, Supers & CWS. Cannot wait. Hopegully 5Dimes hangs a lot of lines from the power conferences this week. Would expect ACC, Big 12 and SEC for sure.

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn. Bases loaded and one out and K-State hits into a DP. Going to extras. Got my money's worth today, but would like to win one!

[EaglesPhan36]

That's about right. UT solo homer in the 10th after the blown K-State 9th. Fukk.

[ncaabaseball7]

Some great opportunities today to profit on these early conference tournament games, especially when you examine some of the expected pitching matchups and who needs to win to get into the postseason tournament. I have four plays today, including three currently listed underdogs. Will post later, still waiting for the lines to open on other sites before I dive in and move them.

[ncaabaseball7]

NC State vs North Carolina was going to be a play on the underdog, NC State at +125. NC State has decided to not throw 1st round arm Carlos Rodon, so this won't be a play for me. Two very evens teams, NC State needs to win more to qualify for postseason while NC is likely in even with a loss here, but NC is throwing a quality reliever in Hovis. With Rodon on the hill this was a play, now its a pass. This is the 11:00 am game in the ACC. SEC tournament just started, will be posting my picks for my 3 games in a bit.