EP36's College Dogpile

[ncaabaseball7]

Evansville -190 has great value over SIU. Kyle Freeland on the mound for 1st place Evansville, and he's a legit 1st round arm. Evansville needs to win at least two games in this tourney to make it to the postseason, and SIU only won 4 games all season long. Freeland is the MVC pitcher of the year, and I like Evansville to cruise here. They are facing a decent arm in Coonrod, but Evansville has the big advantage of better pitcher and better hitting. Game starts at 12:30 ET, so very soon. Large play.

A&M +125 over Arkansas is worth a stab in the SEC tournament. Daniel Mengden on the mound for A&M, and he can beat anyone in the country. Very small play.

Kentucky +100 is great value to beat Alabama. Kentucky is the best offensive team in the SEC, and they throw ace Reed here. Alabama will go with a true freshman that is a midweek starter, so big advantage here for Kentucky. Medium size play.

[EaglesPhan36]

You should start your own thread man. Not that I mind you posting here, but would be cool for guys to find your info and mine not all jumbled together. Good luck to ya.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Record: 14-11 [+6.61]

[EaglesPhan36]

May 20: Wake Forest -105 @ 3pm ET
Wake Forest & Georgia Tech square off in an elimination game where the winner moves into Pool Play in the ACC Tournament. Wake is riding a wave of momentum that saw that take 2/3 from the #1 ranked team in Virginia this past weekend. Ga.Tech meanwhile comes in with wins in 2/3 in non-conference play to end their regular season. Down the stretch in the ACC though, the Jackets stuttered after a hot stretch in early-to-mid April. From 4-18 onward, Tech dropped ¾ series in conference play, winning a series only against last place Virginia Tech. Ga.Tech was just 7-13 overall in road or neutral site games, while Wake managed a 12-12 mark.

Hitting/scoring runs has been a problem for both teams. Tech has a much better team BA at .277, while Wake hits just .249. The Jackets scored 35 more runs than the Demon Deacons. Today’s starters are Grimes for GT who sports a 3.93 ERA and .289 BAA. Fischer goes for WF. He has a 3.56 ERA and .258 BAA. Fischer comes in off a solid performance against Virginia and he notched a CG road win against this Tech club early in the year where WF won 2/3 on the road. Grimes pitched well in the same match-up against Fischer, but was the tough luck loser, 3-2 after going 5 IP and not allowing a run. Momentum to me and confidence are important and the Demon Deacons have that after the Virginia series on top of beating this team a couple times already. Starting pitching is more important for Wake because their bullpen is not as strong as GT’s. If Fischer gives this team a quality start, I think the belief will be there for Wake to find a way to win. They need to keep GT’s bats quiet early.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 20: Arkansas -135 @ 2pm ET
It’s a win or go home set-up in the SEC also with Arkansas taking on Texas A&M in Hoover, AL. The Hogs took two of three from the Aggies in the regular season with the two teams meeting just a little over a week ago. All three games were decided late. Daniel Mengden goes for A&M. He’s 4-7 with a 3.41 ERA and .249 BAA. In SEC play, those numbers skew higher with an ERA at 3.71 and a BAA in the .270s. Arkansas starter Trey Killian was dominant in an out of conference. His numbers are 3-8 with a 2.34 ERA and .212 BAA. His ERA was actually LOWER in SEC play. Give the pitching edge to Arkansas due to their quality bullpen that sports three shutdown guys with ERAs under 2.00. A&M will be looking for Mengden to dominate and take them deep into the game. He’s capable and did it in the regular season, a 3-2 Arkansas win though. A&M sports the better offense with a .288 BA and about 30 more runs scored on the season. Arkansas’ main issue has been consistency offensively where they hit .267 and have scored 281 runs. That’s of course why you see someone with Killian’s ERA holding a losing record. Hoover is usually conducive to quality pitching and good defense, so there won’t be too many if any slugfests. This game should fit that bill and I think Arkansas’ pitching depth gives them an edge today if they can scratch together 3-4 runs that might be enough.]

[EaglesPhan36]

May 20: Missouri State +250 @ 4pm ET
Good for a 0.5 unit shot on the dog as Missouri State battles Dallas Baptist. DBU finished tied for 2nd in the MVC, but wound up as the third seed due to a tie breaker. The price seems appropriately set based on DBU beating Missouri State in 5/6 games this season. Still, that stat doesn’t mean that the Bears were without chances. In fact, their pitching did a downright masterful job of holding down the league’s best run scoring team. DBU scored 353 runs this season. In the six games against Missouri State, DBU was held to 16 runs. In four of those games, they scored two or less! The problem was Missouri State’s offense which was shut out in those four games. On the year, MST bats .262 with 243 runs scored.

Pitching wise, the staffs have a similar ERA with DBU at 3.88 and Missouri State at 3.77. Both teams have good back of the bullpen options, but not elite options. Sneed starts for MST. Murphy starts for MST. He pitched 7 innings against DBU and allowed just two runs in the lone victory over the Patriots, 10-5. He can be dominant with 75 Ks in 67.2 IP. Sneed starts for DBU. He got beat up a little in that match-up for four runs in 7 IP after he blanked Missouri State in one of the earlier meetings. Seeing him for the third time could help Missouri State. Sneed is solid, but hittable with a 4.04 ERA and .257 BAA. The Bears come in with some swagger in this game as well after beating the conference champs Evansville in 2/3 to close the season. If Missouri State can hit some, this is not nearly the mismatch the price suggests. This is a double elimination format for the tournament. It feels like getting the first W would be bigger for Missouri State to continue their roll whereas DBU’s explosive offense would figure to keep them in the mix even with a loss.

[EaglesPhan36]

Arkansas wins 4-0. Wake getting raped early, yikes.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 20: Kentucky -135 @ 5:30 pm ET
Missed the better price, but still worthy. If you haven't heard of AJ Reed, check out the UK stUd. Elite hitter AND pitcher. 2.11 ERA & .229 BAA. Offensively, leads D1 in HRs and I believe RBI. Eicholz goes for Bama. His 3.06 ERA looks good, until you see that he pitched in just seven games once SEC play started with an 8.31 ERA. Cats scored 430 runs to pace the league, Tide scored 285. Good pitching can keep Bama in check. UK needs this elimination game to keep going. Bama is set for a Regional birth no matter what happens here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Very disappointed with Missouri State. Held the lead until the 8th and then gave up a bomb in the 9th to lose, 3-2. Kentucky in charge so far over Bama, so if they can hold on - have grinded out some profit. Got one more game to research.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 2-: Georgia +250 @ 9pm ET
Not much to this. Georgia barely snuck in as the last seed in Hoover this week and they are not an overly productive team. But given second life, perhaps this club can show something. They do have some nice scalps on the season - but the majority of those came at home with their weekend starters in play. Tonight, they go with Dylan Cole out of the bullpen. His ERA is just under 5. It's likely to be all-hands on deck with a parade of pitchers ready to go, perhaps even their Friday starter if they are desperate. Mississippi State is a solid club. Great pitching and defense which usually puts you in good shape in Hoover. Their offense though has had trouble at times with putting together runs. They can blow teams out when everything is working, but normally this is a team that plays a lot of tight games. There is no pressure on Lucas Laster who has just two starts under his belt. He's been great with a 1.52 ERA and State probably has the deepest pen in the conference if he does falter. Georgia might and probably should get walloped here, but they are coming of an emotional win over Kentucky in their finale that saw them bang home 11 runs. If they can carry some momentum over early - who knows. They lost 2/3 to State at home this season and sport a struggling offense for the most part, but one that has a couple bright spots. Small, 0.5 unit shot to preserve a tiny, tiny profit if they get crushed. Gut play if anything here.

[EaglesPhan36]

So for today so far:

Arkansas W +1.00
Wale Forest L -1.05
Missouri State L -0.50
Kentucky W +1.00

[EaglesPhan36]

Great early game in the SEC tomorrow: LSU vs. Vanderbilt at 10:30am ET. Hoping we get some overnight lines up for the early ones.

5Dimes you can see on the Live Lines what games they should have tomorrow. Big 10 action. Big 12. ACC. SEC. MVC.

[EaglesPhan36]

The real fun should come in the Regionals when they start putting up a spread for some of these bigger dogs. Okay to take some measured shots, but some of these dogs with the spread are much easier than getting that outright win.

[EaglesPhan36]

Another one where the spread would have done it. Georgia rallied for two in the 9th off a damn good closer, but then F-ed it all up in the 10th. Losing on a throwing error after they hit a batter.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Record: 16-14 [+6.56]
Took some chances today with Missouri State & Georgia. Both were in position to win. Will be looking to see what tomorrow holds. Poche for LSU vs. Jared Miller for Vandy in the early game in the SEC. Vandy took 2/3 in Nashville. Miller was solid in that series, giving up two runs in his start. Poche was making his first SEC start and gave up four runs. Since, both have gone in opposite directions with Miller not even in the Commodores' weekend rotation by season's end. Poche had a 2.81 ERA in SEC play with a .218 BAA. Miller had a 6.37 ERA and .270 BAA. Vandy had a slightly better offense in conference play with the pitching staffs nearly identical. Both defenses were a little iffy at times during conference play. Vandy ranking 2nd to last with 39 errors. LSU had 33. I'd give LSU the pitching edge and the motivation for some revenge. They're nearly even everywhere, so LSU should be the slight favorite and I'd be willing to take them at -140 or under. Will post up in the morning if we've got a line and then work through the day.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 21: LSU -145 @ 10:30 am ET
In line with the short preview above.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 21: (Parlay) TCU + Indiana [-131]
TCU starts at 1:30pm ET. Indiana at 6pm.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 21: Arkansas +110
Riding with the pitching of the Hogs again today as they take on a talented Ole Miss team. The Rebels are a better offensive team with a team BA just over .300. It was a bit lower in SEC play, but still good for 2nd best in the conference. These teams met three times in the regular season with Ole Miss taking 2/3. The lone win for Arkansas though did come with today’s starter, Chris Oliver, on the mound. He went 7 IP in that game and surrendered just one run. Ole Miss counters with Chris Ellis who pitched six strong innings, giving up just two runs in leading Ole Miss to one of their two wins in that series.

There is a bit of a difference though when you look at the two pitchers in SEC play. Both still won plenty, but Ellis’ ERA was almost a full run higher than his season # of 2.12. He had a 3.08 ERA in SEC games and was very hittable with a .305 BAA. Oliver meanwhile was steady with a 2.63 season ERA and a 2.70 ERA in SEC play. The big difference, his BAA is .215. Quite impressive in the SEC. As outlined yesterday, Arkansas’ depth in the bullpen is a huge strength, so if they can work Ellis today, get* runners on and deliver the big hits – I think that the mostly normal formula in Hoover of good pitching giving teams a chance to advance, favors Arkansas today. It will be key of course to keep the Ole Miss bats quiet early to avoid a deficit.

[EaglesPhan36]

LSU crushing Vandy 8-1

[EaglesPhan36]

LSU rolls 11-1. Good start to the day. Got one more afternoon start with a writeup coming & then looking to a couple I had my eye on tonight.

Love this time of year!

[EaglesPhan36]

May 21: Oklahoma +150 @ 5pm ET
Bedlam hits the Big 12 tournament with OU opening against regular season champs, Oklahoma State. Good spot for OU to open with a win. Okie State is keeping with giving their weekend rotation a full week off in between starts right now and that means that the Sooners potent offense gets a shot to tee off on Tyler Nurdin. Nurdin served as a midweek starter for the Cowboys and he struggled. He had a 6.26 ERA with a .312 BAA. Oklahoma hit .283 as a team overall, .280 in Big 12 games while scoring 307 runs. He has soon OU twice already with mixed results in relief appearances. OU sets freshman Jake Elliott on the bump. He had a 3.25 ERA with a .222 BAA overall, higher in the Big 12 @ 3.71 and .262. He pitched three solid innings against Oklahoma State last weekend in a start where he was on a pitch count as he comes back from an injury. They were hard luck losers 2-1 in that game. OKST won 4-2 in the 2nd game and then OU finished with an 8-1 win that should give them some confidence since they don’t face any of Oklahoma State’s solid weekend starters.

Okie State can swing the bat too. They hit .276 with 335 runs scored. They have an ERA overall that is about a run lower than Oklahoma at 3.18. Both teams have some pieces in the bullpen with State sporting the better guys, but maybe not the better depth. If OU is to start off the double elimination format with a win, they need to get to Nurdin early and often. OKST seems to show with their choice of starter today that they are comfortable if they lose, that they will be able to bounce back due to the other pitchers who can line up after today. It’s also not a must win. OKST is going to the Regionals. OU needs to win the tournament this weekend to be considered, so they should be motivated.
*

[EaglesPhan36]

Arkansas grinds out a 2-1 win

TCU routing Baylor.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 21: Texas Tech +110
Good match-up with the Longhorns & Red Raiders. UT is putting out midweek starter, Lukas Schiraldi. He has a 4.39 ERA with a .245 BAA. Tech is using Corey Taylor. Taylor has pitched more out of the pen and has excelled with a 1.79 ERA and .244 BAA. He has made a handful of starts and this might be a good spot against a Longhorns’ offense that isn’t overly explosive. Tech on the other hand can score runs in droves. They led the Big 12 with 360 runs scored. Compare that to UT with just 245. The Horns battled .265, .271 in conference while Tech batted .294 and .287 in conference. Pitching wise, the Red Raiders have a 4.09 ERA in Big 12 action, while Texas was among the best at 2.82. In the regular season, Texas won 2/3 from Tech. Their weekend rotation did a good job of neutralizing the Red Raiders big bats in Gutierrez and Kirsch for the most part. My thinking though is Schiraldi is inexperienced against this kind of firepower with only one appearance this season against Big 12 competition. That was his last on May 4th when he gave up five runs in just 2 IP against West Virginia. Two runs were unearned, an area where Texas can struggle – defensively at-times. Worth the risk here as Texas has the superior pitching depth to rebound in the double elimination format whereas Tech could really use the opening win more.

[EaglesPhan36]

OU is gonna get pounded in this game before its done. They had done a reasonable job of shutting OSU down after the 1st inning trouble. In the 5th now, bases loaded and OSU has the 4-3 lead.

Indiana up 4-2 on Iowa, trying to close out that parlay after TCU hung on against Baylor. Think I have one more Big 10 play for the Michigan-Minnesota night cap. Starts at 10pm ET I believe.

[EaglesPhan36]

Reasonable escape job considering. OU down 5-3 after 5. Offense needs to get their shit in gear and rally.

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, OU done. How many innings can you load the bases LoL. Now 9-3 after a Grand Slam.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 21: Mississippi State +130 @ 9pm ET
Decided to give this a whirl with the price drift and some stuff I have read. Montgomery goes for SC. Fitts for MST. The Bulldogs were lucky to pull out a win against Georgia last night, but winning close games is something they do well. Montgmery had a 3.26 ERA this season with a .243 BAA. He is a strikeout pitcher. averaging nearly 1K per inning pitch. In SEC play, his ERA inflated to 3.70 with a .247 BAA. Fitts has a 2.59 ERA and a .261 BAA. He was brilliant in SEC play with a 1.93 ERA and .250 BAA. Both pitching staffs are excellent. SC with a 2.80 ERA in SEC play, State at 2.99. Batting averages and runs scored in SEC play, almost identical to a T. So very even across the board, but looking at past performances - I like a little more about trying State. SC is just 2-8 at the SEC tournament in the last four years and 1-7 against Mississippi State all-time in the tourney. This has the makings of a tight game and plus money for State seems good enough to try given a slight edge with Fitts.

[EaglesPhan36]

Parlay complete. Indiana wins 5-2. So, will be 3-1 since OU is going to lose. Tx Tech & Miss State pending. If no worse than a split, solid day today. Ready for more tomorrow. Hoping I can keep going on whatever they have through the weekend, but traveling Friday.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Record: 20-16 [+8.86]

[EaglesPhan36]

May 22: Ole Miss +100 @ 10:30am ET
Massie starts out of the pen for Ole Miss. Interesting move not to go with a weekend starter, but Massie has experience and a 2.36 ERA. Beede for Vandy. 3.42 ERA on the year inflates to 4.40 in SEC play. Even in most categories as the line suggests. Vandy though got whooped by LSU, which might linger. Ole Miss needs to jump on Beede early.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 22: Georgia Tech -135 @ 3pm ET
Riding momentum in this one as Tech battles Duke. Ga.Tech upset top seed Miami yesterday with a late inning rally and sometimes a hot team is better than a good team. This Tech team has talent though, but they had trouble consistently scoring against the best teams. That has changed down the stretch. The Jackets put Ben Parr on the mound today as they have the flexibility to save their stud Stanton to face Miami in pool play. Parr has good numbers. 2.73 ERA/.257 BAA. He did not start much in conference play though and was roughed up some with an ERA over 5. He did start in their final series of the season and pitched well against South Florida in a win. Duke counters with Van Order. His regular season numbers: 3.56 ERA/.227 BAA. He was solid in ACC play with a 3.38 ERA.

Tech swept Duke in the regular season and beat Van Orden. He gave up five runs in 5.2 IP in that start. Numbers are similar elsewhere for both teams, although Duke’s offense has struggled a little bit more with a .242 average in ACC play. Tech sits at .262 and has scored a few more runs overall in league play. Pitching-wise, Duke might have a little better bullpen, but Tech has good pieces. Clay & Issacs at the back end are superb. So if Parr can get them a quality start, they’ll feel good turning it over to either one of those guys late. Duke is behind the 8-ball here with a loss in pool play already, so pressure will be on them whereas Tech has a bit more wiggle room, but would love to be unbeaten when they take on Clemson.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ole Miss blew their game wide open in the 7th. 6-1.

[EaglesPhan36]

To see how these prices shiift when $ comes, Georgia Tech closed around -350. Ridiculous.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 22: [Parlay] LSU + TCU [-131]
LSU starts at 5:30pm ET. TCU at 5:00pm ET. Two absolute studs take the hill for both teams and give them big edges to start. For LSU, it’s Aaron Nola against Arkansas. Nola was 5-1 with a 1.95 ERA in the rugged SEC. LSU beat Arkansas 2/3 this season and Nola dominated with 13Ks in 7 IP where he allowed just two runs. He has a .190 BAA for the season and whiffs just over one batter per IP. Arkansas counters with Poche who did not start any games in the SEC, but did see a bit of midweek action. In SEC play, he was lit up for a 9.82 ERA in nine appearances. Arkansas likely is just looking for a few innings from him and then turning it over to their great bullpen. LSU crushed Vanderbilt to open and putting Nola out today, the Tigers will be wanting to be in pole position for the Championship Game. Their offense is better than Arkansas’, but they need to jump on Poche early for confidence as a tight, edgy game late could fall into the Hogs favor.

For TCU, they get West Virginia. The Mountaineers completed an unlikely rally to stun Kansas, 10-9 yesterday. TCU held off Baylor, 8-5. In the regular season, TCU swept WV. They allowed just four runs in the three game series. Preston Morrison starts today. He nearly no hit this club, allowing just one hit in a CG win. His Big 12 ERA is at 1.14, LOWER than his 1.18 season ERA. He has been a beast. WV will send out Vance who shifted into the rotation late in the season. He had some solid outings against Texas & Texas Tech. I think the same situation as Arkansas where they’ll hope to get some good innings out of him and then turn it to the pen. The problem for WV is their pen is not the strongest. In Big 12 play, they have a 3.98 team ERA whereas TCU stands at 2.54. If TCU can get a lead, they have the horses to close the race. Offensively, the Frogs led the Big 12 with a .291 BA in conference play with 121 runs scored. WV hit well at a .282 clip, but only managed 98 runs. As long as Morrison delivers, TCU should have enough to win today. I would expect a* tight game perhaps unless the Frogs overwhelm Vance early.

[EaglesPhan36]

Update on the day:

Ole Miss won 7-2 = $

Ga.TECH sleeping thru the Duke game. Down 2-0 on two solo HRs. On the plus side, at least I got them @ -135 before the price got obscene. Need a rally!