EP36's College Dogpile

[EaglesPhan36]

May 3: Virginia Tech +290 @ 1pm ET
Okay, Vs.Tech is having a brutal season record wise. But, this team plays a ton of close games. They rallied ahead of Georgia Tech last night, only to yack up the lead and lose in extras. Offenses are fairly even with Ga.Tech more consistent. The Jackets have he better starter, but Markey is the Hokies best. He starts today & usually has his team in the game. Hokies pen is poor, so the longer Markey goes, the better. This would be perfect to play a +2.5 spread, but you don't get those right now. 0.5 unit.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 3: Texas Tech -115 @ 3pm ET
KU is on a modest four game win streak after beating Tech in the opener of this series. Sadberry starting for Tech today. They ate 8-3 when he starts. Kahana likely for KU. Neither is overpowering, they just know how to pitch. Offenses both hitting around .290, but Tech has plated 50 or so more runs. Think they amp up when Sadberry totes the rubber and that makes this decent to try.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tennessee wins 5-1
Vs.Tech loses 3-1

[EaglesPhan36]

May 3: UCF +160 @ 7:30pm ET
I think you get a nice price on the Knights in this one which in my book looks like pretty close to a coin flip on paper. UCF edged Houston 4-3 in the series opener as UCF continued to crush it in the American Athletic Conference, now at 16-3 in conference play. Houston has struggled a bit inside the conference at just 8-8, despite an outstanding overall record of 33-13. The two teams have gone opposite in that manner with UCF struggling in non-conferene play, while Houston was racking up wins before the AAC season opened. UCF has owned this series the past couple years. The two starters are top notch. UCF sending out Ryan Meyer who has a 1.82 ERA and .178 BAA. Walks can be a bit of an issue, so he needs to avoid that trouble. Lemoine for UH is dominating. He has a 1.92 ERAwith 66Ks in 75 IP. HIs 5-4 record though shows that run support is an issue. UH is just 6th in runs scored in the AAC, while UCF is 2nd. Bullpen edge to Houston, so UCF will need to chip away with some runs early as the late innings will be very tough to score against the Cougars' pen. Both defenses can be shaky at times, so unearned runs may play a massive role in the outcome today. UCF skirted around an unearned run in yesterday's game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Tech loses, 6-4. Sadberry was not good and Tech blew several innings where they could have put up crooked numbers to rally back into the game - but instead settled for one run or totally botched it for none.

[EaglesPhan36]

Got the right start for UCF. See if they can :hang on:

Hopefully lines are up early again tomorrow. Makes life a bit easier.

[EaglesPhan36]

Fukk me. UCF blows it in the 9th. Loses 4-3.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Record: 4-4 [-0.28]

That UCF loss hurt. Perfect scenario except for the bullpen choking up a lead in the 9th. Onward and upward.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 4: Parlay
Georgia Tech + Ole Miss [+100]
The Jackets go for the sweep and have a huge pitching advantage today. Parr vs. Scheetz. Scheetz's ERA is over 6 for the season, while Parr has been solid with a 2.13 ERA in split time between the pen and the rotation. Va.Tech as I outlined yesterday does play hard and close in many games, but they have now lost ten straight and Ga.Tech should have a chance to break open their offense today. Ole Miss going for the sweep also against Arkansas. Pitching match-up is fairly even with Smith for the Rebels and Oliver for the Hogs. Both are solid. Arkansas continues to have troubles on the road in conference play and scoring runs consistently. Ole Miss has the offensive edge, ranking 2nd in the conference with an avg. over .300. Arkansas wins with pitching, but Ole Miss is not far off in quality behind them.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 4: Iowa +140
Hawkeyes on the road against Ohio State. This is a big game for both as they jockey for position to try to make the postseason Big 10 tournament. Both are 7-9 in the conference and trail Michigan State by a half game for the 6th and final position for the tournament. OSU has the pitching edge with lefty Ryan Riga on the mound. He has a 3.02 ERA, but he's hittable with a .280 BAA. It's all about stranding runners. Iowa counters with Sasha Kuebel whose 4.83 ERA makes you cringe, but Kuebel has actually pitched well over his last three starts since being crushed by Indiana where he failed to make it out of the 1st inning. Iowa is a high octane offense, so they're asking Kuebel for innings and to keep the Hawkeyes within striking distance. On the season. Iowa ranks 2nd only to Nebraska in both team BA and runs scored. Given that the Huskers have played seven more games this season, Iowa could be considered the top offense in the league. Pitching is where they struggle with a 4.56 team ERA, a full run worse than Ohio State. So productive innings from the starters is a huge key for Iowa. If Kuebel can get into the 6th with the game even or within a run or two, Iowa will have a shot today.

[EaglesPhan36]

So Va.Tech is gonna bite me the day after I backed 'em.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well Ga.Tech failed, lost 7-6. Had tying run in scoring position in the 9th and the guy gets nailed trying to steal 3rd on a strike out/throw out DP. Terrible. Parlay was destined to fail though because Ole Miss is losing too.

Iowa rolling though, 11-1 in the 6th. So can grind a profit if they win out. That'll get it just above the break even mark heading into the new week.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Record: 5-5 [+0.12]

[EaglesPhan36]

May 6: N.Florida +345 @4pm ET
A good situational spot on a big dog. These midweek games can catch power conference teams napping some. Ga.Tech is focused on finishing ACC play to try and get into their postseason tourney. NF meanwhile can claim a scalp on their resume. The Ospreys can rake. Their .302 BA is 10th best in D1. This team has challenged itself with out of confetence trips to Florida, N.Carolina & UCF. They narrowly lost to that Florida club, 8-7, that is considered among the best. Tech is hitting .279, but a shade over .300 at home. Offense should be the name of the game today. Miller pitches for NF and Crimes for Tech. Similar profiles. Mid 4s ERA & BAA over .300. Tech did lose their last midweek game to Mercer and has dropped a couple more during the season. Worth a 0.5 unit shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 6: Louisville +275
There is certainly a gap in starting pitching here. Vandy starts SEC ERA leader Buehler with a 1.49 ERA & .205 BAA. The Cards counter with a freshman lefty, Josh Rogers. He's started a half dozen games and has s 3.45 ERA, but just a .221 BAA. Talent is there and he has a fantastic bullpen behind him, so any trouble and LOU can roll out several quality arms. Offensively, the Cards have scored 57 more runs than Vandy. Both bat around .280. Certainly, the Commodores deserve the favourites' tag @ home with Buehler, but Louisville is hot with ten straight wins and they're even or better than Vandy in all other phases. I hate the term, but value wise the #5 team being a massive dog against the #10 team just makes sense to try. 0.5 unit.

[EaglesPhan36]

North Florida could have really made things interesting. Got it to 9-6, but hit into a DP with bases juiced after scoring a run. If they had run spreads for these, books would get beat alot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well there's a way to blow a fantastic start Louisville. 3-0 in the 1st and you give it back with a Grand Slam. At least feels good to get to the Vandy ace early. Interesting game all-around, good rivalry this has become.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 6: Oregon +140 @ 9pm ET
Taking a crack with the Ducks @ home where they have won 16 straight. Listen, if this was a weekend series and OSU had their three dominating starters lined up as they did when the teams met in Corvallis this season, I'd be taking OSU. But this midweek contest levels the playing field some. Starters have not been officially named, but Jake Thompson has been the normal midweek guy for OSU. He's solid, a 3.33 ERA and a .171 BAA. Walks though have been a major problem for him, 14 in 24.1 IP. OSU could also opt for Dylan Davis. He has not given up a run in 6.2 IP, both starts. He did walk seven though in that time. He's more known for his bat, leading OSU with 54 RBI. Oregon could send out Trent Paddon who was roughed up in Corvallis for four runs in 1.2 IP. He's the likely choice and was a former member of the weekend rotation. Could be nice to have a motivated guy on the mound. He's got an ERA just over 4, but has shown flashes of dominance with 28 Ks in 35 innings pitched and a BAA at .216. The Beavers sport a more potent offense, having scored just seven runs less than the Ducks in five fewer games. Oregon State hasn't played that many midweek games and while this one won't count towards the conference record of either, this is a big game - I think for the Ducks especially. OSU has won seven straight in the Civil War and the Ducks could use a morale booster heading into the home stretch of the season. OSU is a stone cold lock for the Regionals and will be a National Seed. Oregon sits third in the PAC-12 and looks to be in good shape to go to the Regionals likely, but a signature win against the #2 team in the country would be huge.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cards knock Buehler out in the 3rd! 7-4 lead.

[EaglesPhan36]

Louisville has to get this kid out of the game. Staked to three run leads twice, he's given it right back twice now.

[EaglesPhan36]

'Ville tacking more runs on. Let's see if the pen is as good as they have been and can shut Vandy down now that Rogers is out of the game. 9-6 in the 4th. I think if you told Louisville they'd get 9 in a game started by Buehler, they would expect a W. Be a shame if they waste this offense.

[EaglesPhan36]

Oregon went with Nogosek. OSU with Davis. OSU leads 1-0, bottom 1. Guess Oregon will be going reliever by committee for its staff today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Cash that Louisville ticket! 11-7. Showing again that NCAA baseball to me is very underrated in finding some nice dogs to cash because books tend to over chalkify favorites.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ducks lose 4-3 in 12. Had tying run in scoring position, but unable to get it done. Still think it was worth the try, their pitching got thin late and struggled. Grinder out a profit though thanks to Louisville.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Record: 6-7 [+0.49]

[EaglesPhan36]

May 7: Liberty +200 @ 6pm ET
A big resume building opportunity for Liberty as they take on #1 Virginia on the road. Both teams have been off over a week for final exams. UVA dropped their last midweek game to ODU, 8-1. Today's starter, Lewicki, gave up four runs in 6 IP in that one. Liberty is riding high as they pushed into the Top 25. They are fairly certain of making the Regionals and could actually push to host one with a big win today and a key series with Coastal Carolina coming up next.

Liberty sends out lefty Lyons to offset UVA's top bats. This Flames team has played six games against th ACC with a 3-3 mark, including a road win against Clemson. Lyons has experience, so he should not be intimidated. He sports a 2.68 ERA & .228 BAA. Lewicki has a 2.05 ERA & .184 BAA. Offenses are even. Liberty hits 14 points higher & has scored 26 more runs, but consider some lighter competition. Great bullpens for both. Team ERAs are 11th & 7th in D1 with UVA ranking better. Runs could be scarce, so early strike ability could decide it. I like the motivation for Liberty even against this great team. UVA can be stopped by good pitching. Half stakes again on the dog.

[EaglesPhan36]

Old fashioned ass whooping tonight. Virginia looking every part the #1 team.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 9: Parlay St.John's + Oklahoma State +167
St.John's 20-2 @ home. Both STJ & Creighton are10-2 in Big East. STJ won 9 straight in BE play. They are scoring 6.5 runs per game, 25th in D1 That ranks 27th in runs scored with 300. Pitching staff at 3.93 ERA. Creighton averages 5.0, runs on a BA of.257. Pitching staff is at 3.70 ERA
Creighton defense is better. 28 errors. STJ has 59. Creighton has not played many road games since March.

Probable starters: Matt Warren CU 9-1/2.00 ERA/.210 BAA. Last start: 6.1 IP/4 ER. James Lomangino STJ 5-4/3.88ERA/.238 BAA. Problem has been efficiency. 72 IP/12 starts, needs to go deeperGreat closer in Kuzia who has not given up an ER in 32.2 IP with 11 saves. Obviously, St.John's wants thisto be high scoring. CU wants a pitchers duel.

Kansas State is 15-4 @ home with a 290 BA/4.44 team ERA. OSU is at .273 BA/3.29 ERA
KST only has 7 more runs scored despite the BA difference. KST 0-6 vs. TCU & Tx.Tech, the toughest teams they played in conference.
OSU 6-3 vs. TCU, Tech & Texas - includes 2/3 @ Austin.

Pitching lrobables/Other Notes
Levi MaVorhis KST 5-6/3.66 ERA/.246 BAA
KST hss the third most errors in the Big 12 with 70. OSU has 54.

Jon Perrin OSU 5-3/1.98 ERA/.251 BAA
Great Pen. McCurry with 14 saves. Wheeland is versatile and dominant.

[EaglesPhan36]

Write-up completed.

[EaglesPhan36]

Worked out better that Creighton did not start Warren. STJ just needs to hold it down now and let their offense go.

[EaglesPhan36]

Should be an easy finish to the parlay after St.John's squeaked it out. Okie State rolling 7-0.

[EaglesPhan36]

May 9: Cal-Riverside +240
Riverside is at Fullerton State. The Titans have a great pitching staff, anchored by tonight's starter Thomas Eshelman. He sports an a ERA under 2.00. The problem is the Titans struggle to score runs almost every game with just 194 scored this season. Riverside has scored 230 and has a BA about 30 points higher. The Riverside starter is Jacob Smigelski. His ERA is 3.33 with a BAA of .270. Decent numbers and he should feel good about going against this anemic lineup. Riverside beat Cal Poly, a top five club last Friday - so they have the chops. With the Titans offensive struggles, this is worth a 0.5 unit pop.

[EaglesPhan36]

Another big dog hit. Riverside wins 3-2. Keep setting those lines like crapola Tony.

[EaglesPhan36]

2014 Record: 8-7 [+3.36]

[EaglesPhan36]

May 10: Parlay Oklahoma State + NC State [-140]
Okie State again has the pitching edge today. They send out Tyler Buffett who sports a 2.25 ERA and a .209 BAA against. He has started six games and made ten total appearances. K-State sends out Jake Matthys. He has had a nightmarish season with a 7.39 ERA and a .333 BAA. This will be just his second start. He allowed six runs, just two earned in his other start against a TCU squad that doesn't have the same punch as the Cowboys' lineup. NC State is chasing a birth in the ACC Tournament and needs to complete a sweep of Wake Forest this weekend to give themselves a chance in the final weekend. Carlos Rodon made his final home start to help the Pack win Game 1, 9-1. They took advantage of three errors by the Demon Deacons. Logan Jernigan starts for NCST today. WF puts senior Jack Fischer on the mound. The Pack have been hot at the right time for this push, winning seven of their last nine ... all at home. Jernigan has been involved in two of those weekend wins. He's had all sorts of efficiency issues with 37 walks in just 58 IP, but a dominate side exists with 55 Ks in that same work. He doesn't generally go very deeop though because of the wildness, so the pen will likely be in play. NCST has about 3-4 solid and versatile guys to come in and hold it down, so if Jernigan gets them off on the right foot - they can close the door. Fischer has been solid for WF with an ERA just under 3.00 and a BAA around .243. Wake has had major problems of late though with six straight losses and losses in 8/9 overall. On the road, they are 9-10 ... but have lost six of their last seven. Both offenses struggle. NCST with a .263 BA and WF just .250. The Pack though have scored 60 more runs, so they do deliver more often. Defense as it showed yesterday can be a major problem for WF with 70+ errors. NC State has a total in the mid 50s.