EP36's College Dogpile

[EaglesPhan36]

UCLA +2.5 [-120] *Risking 0.6 unit to win 0.5 unit
Plutko is facing a beefy LSU lineup, but Plutko has the experience and stuff to keep this game tight. In his 17 starts, the Bruins have only failed to stay within this number twice this season. Nola is certainly going to be difficult for UCLA to crack, but the Bruins were able to patiently scratch through against Fullerton's two Freshman phenoms in the Supers. They also scratched out runs against both Oregon & Oregon State's quality pitching staffs. LSU always has potential to light teams up, but with this ballpark and a quality pitcher on the other side - this one looks like it may be a pitcher's duel along the lines of what we saw in Game 1 of the Supers with Gray & Nola, a 2-0 LSU win. Generally as you look at LSU's season, their Friday night games against the opponent's #1s were generally low scoring and competitive

[No coincidences]

Thanks. I was just amazed to see those other options offered. Will give Betonline some props too, they are offering MLs, the basic spread +1.5/-1.5 and game totals for Omaha. Improvement over just the MLs they had been offering for Regionals and Supers.

I think books are starting to realize that this is a big betting opportunity. SBR as usual ... misses the boat.

I don't really understand why BOL gets such a bad rap. I've been doing business there for a long time and never had issues with deposits, payouts, etc. Very solid book for me with a ton of live betting options and incredibly early lines. Then again, I'm not about to carry a five-figure balance there either. Maybe that's where the problems lie -- but maybe that's the bettor's fault for being dumb enough to carry that kind of balance off-shore.

[EaglesPhan36]

BTW ... ESPN's choice of music once again for this is an epic fail.

[EaglesPhan36]

Never seen a team scratch out more BS runs than UCLA. Error on SS and UCLA is up 2-1. Good for today's bet, not so great for the LSU future. Gotta hope the Tigers got a rally in 'em, but they'll have to go through Berg.

[EaglesPhan36]

College World Series Futures

Louisville to Win Bracket One +320
The Cards have the offense and pitching to win this whole thing. The 1-2 punch of Thompson & Green on the mound will make it difficult to beat Louisville twice in a row. Kime gives them a third option with good stuff and if they have to come out of the loser's bracket, he will be a key component if Louisville survives. The bullpen can lock it down for 2-3 innings with Ege & Burdi leading the charge. The offense is fantastic for manufacturing runs with one of the top base stealing clubs in D1. Young, Gardener and Johnson are a lethal combo in the lineup. Beating Vanderbilt in two games on the road against two of the top pitchers in D1 bodes well heading into this bracket.

LSU Wins CWS +190
For me, this is smart money spent. LSU has the best combo of pitching and offense in Omaha and should be pushing out of the Winner's Bracket with UCLA up first. The reason I think this is smartly spent is that there aren't too many scenarios where LSU as the labelled favorite to take the title - WON'T carry a favorites tag in most if not every game they play in Omaha. That means there should be a hedge wherever needed and your chance to "Green Out" and make a profit.

North Carolina Eliminated From Bracket Two First +460 *0.5 unit
UCLA Eliminated From Bracket Two First +135 *0.5 unit
The hope that one goes out first and these split with some profit taken is what I am looking at here. UNC I think offers nice odds in this spot for a team whose starting pitching has become a large question mark heading into the CWS. Emmanuel, Johnson and Moss all had solid seasons, but appear a tad gassed from over-use in the postseason. Throw in that Rodon should be getting the ball first against the Heels and it is not unlikely that N.Carolina will be playing from the loser's bracket as the Heels showed their vulnerability against S.Carolina when facing top notch lefties. UCLA certainly has the pitching to match any team in this bracket, but no doubt is lacking offensively. Having to open against Nola & LSU won't do them any favors. As the odds hold, the Bruins are the team most expect to depart Omaha early

Assuming LSU has no rally and I don't think they will, the first two futures are very sketchy right now. What is beautiful is since UNC lost today, I can likely play them as a dog to LSU in an elimination game to manage some profit out of those last two futures. Or maybe at least somewhere around a pick 'em. Will be interesting to see where they set that line. The way UNC has played lately, they should be a dog - but you never know.

[EaglesPhan36]

FYI on Monday, Wetzler has been slotted for OSU. Thompson of course for Louisville. Great pitching match-up. Wetzler though is a shade more hittable than Boyd by the numbers, so Louisville may have a slightly better shot. He's still tough, but he's got a little more wildness to him/little less dominant than Boyd which could be key so that Louisville can draw walks and use their running game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Terrible strategy by LSU. Leadoff runner on. 2-0 count and the guy is swinging away into a DP. Have to move the runner. To the elimination bracket you GEAUX!

[EaglesPhan36]

Wikipedia already has UCLA winning this game 2-1. LoL. LSU still alive, runners on 1st & 2nd - two outs. Lack of a bunt earlier really hurts now.

[EaglesPhan36]

WTF was that bush league shit? Fake throwaway to 2nd? LoL.

[EaglesPhan36]

Berg can't find the zone.

[EaglesPhan36]

2013 Record: 54-40 [+160.0]
CWS: 4-0 [+4.25]

Another good day at the CWS, but the futures do get shaky - especially UCLA beating LSU (ouch). Be waiting to see what options are available for tomorrow's games. Dogs 4/4 in Round 1. History holds to that extent. History also shows in the 1st elimination games, that national seeds are still vulnerable. That means UNC or Oregon State is likely to exit.



UCLA really gets under my skin as a baseball team.

[EaglesPhan36]

June 17th
Louisville +2.5 [-180]
Price won't be for everyone, but this ones shapes up to a be a tight pitcher's duel like the Cards' game against Indiana. Lefties have given the Louisville offense fits, so Ben Wetzler from Oregon State will be tough to crack. He has been prone to a few more walks lately, so that could help boost Louisville with some base runners. Great match-up with their base stealers and Beavers C Jake Rodriguez behind the dish. Jeff Thompson goes for Louisville and that is enough for me to think they will be within reach if not ahead in this game. Thompson has been devastating all season. He handcuffed Vanderbilt in the Super Regionals, allowing just one run. He's only given up six hits in two starts in the NCAAs vs. Miami & Vanderbilt. Oregon State will be in for a tough time if his pitches are working.

[EaglesPhan36]

I got SBR points for anyone who can link me to confirmation of starting pitchers for Indiana-Mississippi State. Both coaches have listed off three options to use, but nothing confirmed ...

[EaglesPhan36]

Thompson not looking so hot right now. Self inflicted run scored already because of the hit batter.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ugly now. Dropped foul ball and bases loaded. Yikes.

[EaglesPhan36]

Shooting themselves in both feet. Sheesh.

[EaglesPhan36]

All things considered, that could have been much worse ... but still really puts them behind the 8-ball now. They need to come back with a run right away or they're up against it all game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Colossal flop by Louisville. Best pitcher on their staff if getting worked over and their defense was just terrible for the one inning earlier. Usually a recipe for getting beat.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well onto the next one. This is just brutal. Four errors. Louisville future gone bye bye.

[EaglesPhan36]

Too bad they don't do mercy rules in the CWS. Louisville could use it. Wow.

[EaglesPhan36]

Trevor Fitts starts for Miss State. Still no word on Indiana. Slegers seems to be the thought of most writers I have seen today, but not firmed up yet. Going to wait and see if I can find that info before I decide on a play or pass for that game.

Miss State is likely using the same formula they used when Fitts started against Virginia in the Supers. See how many innings you need out of him and then Girodo first out of the pen.

[RJBucs]

Trevor Fitts starts for Miss State. Still no word on Indiana. Slegers seems to be the thought of most writers I have seen today, but not firmed up yet. Going to wait and see if I can find that info before I decide on a play or pass for that game.

Miss State is likely using the same formula they used when Fitts started against Virginia in the Supers. See how many innings you need out of him and then Girodo first out of the pen.

What do you think about the over 10.5 -125?

[dowecheat'em&how]

ep36, what time are you going to post the play tia....................................D WCH

[dowecheat'em&how]

ep36, tried to shoot you some points but they will not transfer......................DWCH

[EaglesPhan36]

Mississippi State -105

Posted this on Twitter while SBR was down. Coursen-Carr goes for Indiana. I can understand it, but at the same time - the Bulldogs have faced and hit tough lefties in the SEC this year. If Coursen-Carr gets hit around early, this also hampers IU's bullpen strategy IMO. They are not deep, but do have a couple good arms. I think State sets up much better with their strategy. They go to the pen whenever they want, not out of necessity - but out of strategy. So even if Fitts goes two or three, they go to Girodo and then have a guy like Mitchell waiting in the wings. I also thought State hit better in their opener, whereas Indiana did not have a ton of offense against Louisville with a lot of their base runners that they used to score coming from walks.

As a note on the total. I still can't back overs at TD Ameritrade, especially not double digits. They are the exception, not the rule. Remember the history, double digit totals are very uncommon now. This could go over if Miss State starts quick and eats into IU's pen, but I think Under 11 is also a good option.

[dowecheat'em&how]

thanks ep36 bol...........................DWCH

[EaglesPhan36]

Pen isn't doing real well for State. They need to get the F out of this inning.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big K. 3-1 deficit is manageable still. Need to start cashing in on C-Carr's wildness though.

[EaglesPhan36]

Zero luck so far. Gotta keep plugging away and keep putting guys on base.

[EaglesPhan36]

Boy that inning is going to be the one they look back on I think. Bases loaded and one out. Can't get that deep fly out with one out to at least tie it, instead settle with just one run.

[EaglesPhan36]

Oy. Should have kept with the game plan. Any double digit total really going with the under is the best play every game with competent bullpens. Instead, I chose to sweat it out on a side. Stupid! Seems like I always need a mistake day somewhere to bash my skull in.

[EaglesPhan36]

We got ourselves a game. Tied at 3!

[EaglesPhan36]

Finally making IU's pen pay! 5-3 Diamond Dogs in the 8th.

[EaglesPhan36]

Holder locks down the last out. Miss. State wins 5-4 in a nail biter! Will take that though. I've come around on this team. I played against them in the Regionals and Supers some and thought their lack of a bonafide stud on their rotation would be their downfall. Their coach is a genius though with how he manages his use of his bullpen and lets guys like Fitts come in and just throw darts for 2-4 innings and then pulls them and cycles through what I think is the best/most versatile bullpen in Omaha.

IU-Oregon State will be a quality elimination game. Have to think IU finally uses Slegers in that one. Can't hold the Big 10 Pitcher of the Year out no matter his recent struggles and Boyd probably goes for OSU. Should be superb.

Quick Notes for Tuesday:

LSU-UNC: I am making a play on the Carolina ML to hedge against the bet I have for them to be the first team eliminated in the region at big odds over +400. I think there's definitely some panic in UNC. They are going to start reliever Trent Thornton in this one. He has been dominant all season as a Freshman and does have five starts. So it's not unchartered territory, but it shows that Mike Fox knows his starters are burned out some from his piss poor management of them the last couple weeks. LSU I think went smart with lefty Cody Glenn to start. I was wondering if they'd do this, looking at how much trouble lefties have given UNC.

Both coaches are gambling though because if either starter gets lit early, they could potentially have to burn through a prospective starter for the next game. Especially perilous for the Heels IMO because their bullpen has not been good lately. LSU won't fret over having to go to their pen and I don't think they use Ryan Eades unless it's an absolute must to survive, but I cannot see that scenario really. Outside of the ML play on UNC (again a hedge only, not an endorsement), I am interested in seeing the team totals tomorrow. The 9.5 game total probably means both are at least at 4.5. Will update any plays as soon as I see the other options.

I don't particularly see an edge with a side, although I would lean LSU with the lefty going and a real feeling that the Heels are a bit panicked still. Total of 9.5 ... not real strong on an over or under for the game. I tend to think one of the starters is going to be off and get hit, but that doesn't mean it's going to hit ten runs total.

The night cap is UCLA and NC State with a low total of 6.5 and UCLA the -130 favorite. Wolfpack have not picked a starter yet. Ogburn or Jernigan seems likely, but lefty Brad Stone is an option too against a weaker hitting team that could allow NC State to save Ogburn or Jernigan for another game. UCLA has not announced its starter either, but Vander Tuig has been the #2 and has loads of NCAA postseason experience. I think he gets the nod. That saves a lefty - Grant Watson, their #3 all season who would be the match-up they want if UNC happens to advance and they wind up playing them. Sending Vander Tuig out also gives them their best shot to win and set themselves up for the the games they need to advance to the Championship Series.

Another game I want to see all the options on and the exact starters before making a possible pick.

[EaglesPhan36]

2013 Record: 55-41 [+15.20]
CWS: 5-1 [+3.45]