It's on ESPN3, I think. Watching on ESPNU myself.
Rice +500!
Rice +500!
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Wow. Highlight reel play from FAU's SS to lead off the 13th, but the ump fukked up - clearly UNC runner was safe.Comment -
Heels pull it off in the 13th. 12-11. Might be the best college baseball game I have seen.Comment -
2013 Record: 43-33 [+13.00]
Regionals: 11-10 [+1.50)
Not the most profitable round, but the Rice future put the Regionals in the black overall and that's all that matters, Super Regionals begin Friday. Will be doing the research this week with some write-ups + picks coming on Thursday. Lots of really solid match-ups.
N.Carolina-S.Carolina
NC State-Rice
Fullerton-UCLA
LSU-Oklahoma
Vanderbilt-Louisville
Florida State-Indiana
Virginia-Miss State
Oregon State-Kansas State
Really void of a "Cinderella" although I think K-State and Indiana would be that role in Omaha as first timers.Comment -
Making some notes as I go through things this week. Most years, one of the National Seeds that makes the Super Regionals loses. And you're usually going to find a first timer getting into the College World Series as a result.
If you believe in history, that means Kansas State (Oregon State) or Indiana (Florida State) would be the likely candidates to pull the upset. Generally the team springing the upset has extremely great pitching or a team capable of outscoring anyone. Both K-State and IU rank in the Top 19 in team BA and Top 30 in runs scored. The Hoosiers have the added lure of pitching that can match Florida State and in a year void of a perfect Cinderella fit, both would fit the bill as first timers & Indiana probably more so as a "Northern" school.
Definitely ones I will be looking at first for big Futures odds. More to come.Comment -
So damn excited for this weekend. Working on a couple write-ups for Friday's openers, but starting with the Futures. Absolutely love that 5Dimes lets you parlay these if you so choose ... and I do!
Regionals Futures Plays
Parlay: Fullerton State to Advance [-320] + Virginia to Advance [-230] = [-113]
Fullerton hosts UCLA in what sets up to be a Pitcher's Delight. Fullerton's fab frosh duo of Garza and Eshelman lead the way and their #3 starter Graham Weist was just as dominant against Columbia in the Regional round. UCLA can match Fullerton with a steady trio in Adam Plutko, Nick Vander Tuig & Graham Watson. Watson has the highest ERA at 3.22, the other two matching t 2.51. Sounds great? It does until you see Garza and Eshelman with sub 2.00 ERAs. All three Fullerton starters pound the strike zone and that makes it difficult, especially for a lighter hitting Bruins' squad that needs walks to help propel its offense. For me, offense is the difference maker. Fullerton has some stellar bats in Lorenzen, Lopez, Wallach and Chapman who had a big Regional round. These teams met twice mid-week during the season with none of the top tier pitchers involved - UCLA still only managed two runs in each game, both losses while Fullerton tallied 14 runs combined. Both bullpens are solid with UCLA rock solid late in games as is Fullerton with Lorenzen as the closer. This is a game where the leader after the 7th inning likely wins the ballgame.
Virginia is the more solid overall team than Mississippi State, but the Bulldogs are one of those teams that seem to find a way to win. UVA's weekend pitching rotation of Silverstein, Howard & Waddell is solid - but hittable. State has a stud in Graveman as their #1, but struggles behind him with Pollorena and then either Lindgren or some other possibilities as lesser options behind their #1. Offensively, the Wahoos scored almost 100 runs more than Miss. State, but both teams hit for a high average - so base runners will be there for both. Solid bullpens for both with Holder, an All-American closer for the Bulldogs and Crockett, every bit as good for UVA. I think this Super Regional comes down to consistency and that is more in UVA's favor. If Virginia beats Graveman in his start, they should be looking good to advance.
Indiana to Advance +160
Kansas State to Advance +250
Going with the historical trend. In each of the last four years, a first timer has made it to Omaha. These are you two teams that have never been there. Indiana is at Florida State. Kansas State at Oregon State. If one of them advances, profit is taken. IU has the better overall squad that matches up well with FSU. K-State will look to ride their offense against an excellent Oregon State pitching staff.Comment -
Rain delays for sure in the Carolinas today. Both early games might start, but may be delayed for a long time due to remnants of the Tropical Storm.Comment -
S.Carolina-N.Carolina will not start before 3pm ET, but weather forecast improving so they should be able to go some time mid-afternoon. NC State-Rice might be delayed until evening.Comment -
Well scratch that. S.Carolina-UNC rescheduled till Saturday. Rice-NC State will play today, but not until 7pm ET.Comment -
June 7th
Raleigh Super Regional: NC State-Rice Under 7.5 [-125]
Pitcher's Delight. Carlos Rodon for the Pack. Austin Kubitza for Rice. Rodon has been lights out in the postseason since coming to State last year. 37.2 IP in five games and just 12 hits allowed and a 0.72 ERA. Kubitza has been rock solid as well. 17 IP and just three ER allowed in three postseason appearances in 2013. Both offenses have some starts, Stringer for the Owls and Turner for the Pack - but both can be contained by quality pitching. Rice scored just four runs in the first three games of the Eugene Regional before busting out for 11 in the finale. NC State scored 14 runs in three gmes of their Regional, but nine came in the finale against a worn down William & Mary staff. This will be a much hyped pitching match-up, so hopefully it lives up to the billing ... if it does, I expect that the total will have a good shot to stay under.
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Well now the NC State game has been postponed till tomorrow. So hold that pick until Saturday which makes for a huge slate of games (6).Comment -
Do you ever sleep EP36 LOLThe under looks solid with 2 aces pitching, while the Wolfpack offense didn't produce run during the regionalI like Rice to win the super regional series alsoComment -
Baton Rouge Regional: LSU Team Total Over 4.4 [-140]
Purely speculation on this pick as Jonathan Gray has been dominant all season for OU and is who the Bayou Bengals get in Game #1. 1.59 ERA and a .188 BAA. Stiff numbers, but Gray has not faced a lineup anything like LSU's - outside of his start against a lethal K-State squad. That start? The Wildcats got nine hits and four runs off Gray and then got a couple more off the bullpen to win 6-5. LSU ranked 2nd in the SEC with 423 runs scored and a .302 team batting avg. Seven of the right regulars hit above .283 and five of them above .325. LSU's OBP is #23 in the country, so if they are patient and work the pitch count on Gray - they should have base runners on tonight. The key is getting Gray out of the game as soon as possible. Their bullpen has a couple great pieces at the back-end, but is hittable in-between. Gray gave up at least three runs in 3/4 down the stretch. I think if they get 2-3 off Gray and get into the pen by the 6th, they can do the rest late.
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Eesh. UCLA up 2-0. Only good if UCLA wins today is you can hedge the weekend with UCLA in each game to try and even off on that futures parlay if the Bruins win today.
LSU not able to do anything with getting a lead off runner on in almost every inning. Slow start it appears, but tomorrow is the big day.Comment -
ep36, thanks for the info good stuff!!!! I played a futures parlay n.c. , ville, Indiana & k-st. BOL looking forward to Saturday for your plays........DWCHComment -
Well LSU did indeed get to the bullpen, but unfortunately it did not come until late. 2-0 LSU wins. Fullerton down 1 ... still a shot. Looking at a play or two tomorrow to add to the Rice-NC State under which is already booked. Gonna be Beer 'Clock at Noon ET and continuing until the evening!Comment -
Huge! Two run rally for Fullerton off UCLA's closer to notch it at 3 in the 8th. If they can pull this out, could be a big back breaker early for the Bruins to not be able to hold that lead.Comment -
Ick. Fullerton yacks it up in extras.Comment -
June 8th
Chapel Hill Super Regional: Game #1 S.Carolina Team Total Over 3.5 [+105]
The rain out on Friday allows UNC to reshuffle their rotation back to normal. That means lefty Kent Emmanuel will start. Emmanuel was the steadiest UNC starter for most of the season, but he has shown some wear down the stretch. In the Regional round, he pitched 9.1 IP and gave up ten earned runs. That includes a relief appearance in the marathon 13 inning game on Monday. Prior to that, Emmanuel had been knocked around a bit with four ER or better given up in two of his last three starts before the Regionals. South Carolina is void of big names in their lineup outside of Dantzler, but this squad scored 4th best in the SEC and has a team BA of .284. They pounded home 32 runs in three games in the Regionals. They struggled a bit in the SEC tournament, but have scored at least four runs in 10 of their last 13 overall. UNC showed some frailty in its psyche in the Regional round when they got pushed to an elimination game. If SC stays patient and works Emmanuel, I think they can definitely grind out some runs that are going to be needed to offset a potent Tar Heel lineup.
June 8th
Vanderbilt Regional: Louisville +205
Getting 2:1 odds in this game seems worth a shot to me. Vanderbilt has one of the most complete teams in the country with a lineup that can rake from 1-9 and two studs in Ziomek & Beede. Louisville though is a team that can match Vandy with two outstanding pitchers in Jeff Thompson & Chad Green. It's Ziomek and Thompson in this one. Their lineup also features plenty of pop with a superb trio in Young, Gardner & Coco Johnson who all are hitting better than .330. Both teams love to run as these are two of the top teams in steals in D1. Both bullpens are very good with great closers. What I like here is that the Commodores have shown some deficiency at the plate since the postseason began. A team that had not been shut out all year, has been shut out twice. Once by stud Daniel Mengden of Texas A&M and then in the Regionals by Josh Heddinger of Ga.Tech who was an unlikely candidate to do so. Thompson has dominated all season with 100 Ks in 96.1 IP, a 2.06 ERA and a measly .173 BAA. He will be tested by this Commodores lineup, but this Louisville team is experienced in the postseason and I think they will get a game in this series. Thompson has made huge strides this season and if he gives this team a quality start - look for them to be right there at the end. Getting big odds likely in Games 1 & 2 could yield a solid profit if the Cards can limit Vandy and come through with some clutch hitting.
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Hey EP, u think Fullerton can win 2 in a row after losing that heartbreaker? Who are the projected starters for both teams?Comment -
I'll take my chances they can win today. After thinking about it, it doesn't make sense to go against them in Game 2 - as in if I don't trust them to split the first two games, I shouldn't have picked them at all ... right?
I liked them to win the series, so if they fall - they fall. I don't think UCLA sweeps them in two, but anything can happen. I give UCLA credit, they scored runs in extras off a really tough reliever for Fullerton, so they earned it.
Eshelman for Fullerton. Should be Vander Tuig for UCLA. The one plus for Fullerton is that UCLA had to use Berg (Closer) for three innings yesterday.Comment -
Good start in the Carolina game EP! We have 8 more innings to get 2 more runs now!Comment -
Emmanuel was #1 on my list to go against for the opposition and their team total. Over pitched and he's been below average also down the stretch.
Eades is another I am considering. He's got great stuff, but was very poor against Sam Houston and had been hit a bit in the last six weeks. Debating a play in the OU-LSU game tonight. Waiting for the team totals before I decide what if anything to go in on. Pitching match-up will be solid again with Overton for LSU and Eades for LSU.Comment -
And there's a winner in the 3rd inning. Beautiful way to start Saturday.Comment -
Great early hit EP-nothing like winning before the 3rd inning is even finished!
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Great South Carolina pick, I hope CS-Fullerton can turn it around. You are right about Berg, he prolly won't be able to go tonight which is good news for us.Comment -
Indiana off to a super start. 4-0. UVA though = dog shit in the 1st against Miss. State.Comment -
Wound up getting Louisville @ +220.Comment -
Green started for Louisville instead of Thompson. Not as dominant as Thompson, but I'm still okay with being on the Cards today with Green on the mound. He needs a big start.Comment -
Weirdness. Vanderbilt's home field is all field turf - including the "dirt" around the bags. Watching these guys slide past the bags.Comment -
Offenses have been rolling early today. 11 runs in the SC-UNC game. IU leading FSU 10-8 in the 9th. Miss State 10-6 over UVA in the 6th.
Need IU to close this sucker out and give that future a good start, especially since UVA is scuffling - although still three innings left there if their pen can stop State once!Comment -
Huge win for Indiana!Comment -
Not a great start for the under in Raleigh. Two run 1st for the Pack. Kubitza a little shaky and a wild pitch led to the 2nd run.Comment
