EP36's College Dogpile

[EaglesPhan36]

June 18th
LSU-North Carolina 1st Five Innings Under 5 [-110]
Of course both these offenses could blow this up individually in half an inning, but I think it's worthy in this spot. Both teams may be pressing a bit in this elimination setting. Trent Thornton, the power closer for UNC starts. He's flat out flithy. Cody Glenn, another lefty, goes for LSU. Have documented UNC's heavy left-handed lineup, so Glenn will have chances for success if he stays down in the zone and hits his spots. I expect Thornton to come out and pitch well as he has all season. One of these offenses is bound to come up with some big hits, but I think it could take a couple turns through the lineups - making the 1st Five bet worth a shot for me.

[EaglesPhan36]

Jernigan confirmed for NC State. Still no final confirmation for UCLA, but still would be shocking if it's not Vander Tuig. Will be looking at a possible play in that one based on that projected match-up .... UNC strikes for 2 early. *Gulp* on the 1st five already.

[EaglesPhan36]

UNC was all over Glenn. No lefty magic. Looks like this 1st five is doomed. No outs. Bases loaded. Suck me sideways. It was Heels TT over today or trying this which I did ... apparently wrong choice. Definitely glad I hedged with the UNC ML on that futures bet because LSU looks dead.

[EaglesPhan36]

Bonvillain just did some manly work there. Retires three straight with the bases loaded. 3-0 Heels after 2.5. Need some lockdown pitching by both clubs now.

[EaglesPhan36]

Slipped in with 3-1 the score after 5 innings. Now let's rally LSU!

[EaglesPhan36]

Holy Moly. This is your spot LSU. Do or die.

[EaglesPhan36]

Donk. That was it. Couldn't get the big hit.

[EaglesPhan36]

UCLA -130
Going with the ugliest team in Omaha. They don't hit. They don't score much. But they do pitch and play defense and then jump on you when you make mistakes. NC State might play perfectly into that role as LSU did. The Wolfpack sport a .970 fielding percentage that was middle of the pack in the ACC and they can be run on. Logan Jernigan goes for State. He was solid against Rice in the Supers, going five innings and giving up just one run. Walks can be an issue for him, something that you don't want against a team that needs help to get their offense going. Vander Tuig goes for the Bruins. He's poised and experienced and should pitch to the strengths of this ballpark if he doesn;t try to overthrow. UCLA's bullpen will be prepared and is stout as usual. Under seems a reasonable play in this one, but I would want at least 7.5 and I'm a little skeptical on it because although the Wolfpack pen is good, they can be had some. This could easily sneak it at eight runs with some errors and walks, etc. So I am going with the side in this one.

[EaglesPhan36]

UCLA hanging hanging on at 2-1. Under was the easy money here. Berg gonna try to close it again in the 9th. Be nice if the Bruins could nick an extra run off NCST in the 9th.

[EaglesPhan36]

Berg nails it down. 2-1 UCLA wins UGLY again. Really is not fun to watch this team, but have to admire their pitching and their opportunistic shit. Futures all officially went down the toilet today. At least made a small profit on the UNC one and taking the Heels today as a hedge. LSU & Louisville were two big fails. Elimination game tomorrow night. Oregon State vs. Indiana. No official word on pitchers, but I would expect Boyd for OSU and Slegers for IU.

Fun note: With UNC's win and NC State's loss, we get a rematch in a Thursday elimination game. Think they could start Stone being a lefty and all. I would not discount seeing Rodon at some point during that game. Would not even be shocked if he started really, but three days rest - seems more likely that he might be first out of the bullpen if whomever they name as starter flops. Ogburn or Stone would be likely. Have a feeling without Rodon, UNC is going to exact some revenge and might put up a big number.

2013 Record: 57-41 [+17.20]
CWS: 7-1 [+5.45]

[EaglesPhan36]

Was waiting to see team totals, but none have been posted yet for this evening. I like Oregon State, but -180 not so much. If TTs are not posted, will be passing this evening.

[dowecheat'em&how]

team totals are up EP............................DWCH

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I saw. Don't like 'em. I was going to go Under on Indiana if it was at least four, but 3.5 not where I want. I am going to use Oregon State ML in an open parlay though. Indiana has had troubles against lefties all season and Boyd is probably the best lefty whey will face. Slegers will be tough, but he's been off his game a little lately. OSU also has some quality lefties in their pen to use. Risking one unit on the Open Parlay and leaving two open spots for other CWS picks.

June 19th
OPEN PARLAY STARTER: Oregon State -185

[dowecheat'em&how]

played osu -1 -131 what do you think ep...........................DWCH

[EaglesPhan36]

Sorry I didn't respond yesterday. Literally was out the door after that post. I had a feeling it was going to be tight like that, so glad you at least pushed!

UNC v. NC State tonight. Wolfpack as expected are trying the lefty theory against UNC by starting Brad Stone. Only problem is Stone is not Carlos Rodon or even 60% of Rodon. Stone has a 5.28 ERA, his BAA isn't terrible at .242, but that just shows to me that when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. Hobbs Johnson goes for UNC. He had a poor start in the Supers, but had been more consistent than anyone on the staff for most of the season. I think some extra rest probably did him well. He pitched against NC State to end the regular season. 5.1 IP and just one run with 9 Ks in the marathon 18 inning Heels win, 2-1. Stone hasn't pitched since the Regionals when he showed well against William & Mary, but that's no UNC lineup he faced.

UNC's moneyline shot up like a rocket once the pitching match-ups got out. They're -245 and will be put into that Open Parlay I started as the 2nd slot. Will be looking at the other options when posted. 1st Five & Team Totals could interest me here as well.

Think it is huge that Hobbs Johnson has a quality start since UNC used their closer to start against LSU. Was obviously the right choice since he came up huge, but he won't be able to go tonight after going 7 in that one. The plus was they only had to use McCue other than Thornton, so the rest of the pen is fresh - but Thornton would have been a key arm to use late. I'd look for McCue and Munnelly to be trusted as the first arms to back up Johnson tonight, but they really need him to go about six to feel good unless they sport a big lead.

[EaglesPhan36]

Indeed, it is 5.5 on the Heels team total @ -130. Gonna go think about the other options and read a little more. Be back with a possible pick in addition to using the ML in that Open Parlay.

[EaglesPhan36]

June 20th
1st Five Innings: N.Carolina-N.C. State Over 4.5 [-135]
Going with my gut here. I think the Heels get to Stone early for some runs. I like this over their team total or a full game total because the first sign of trouble, coaches are going to turn to their bullpen for a bail out - so the scoring could dry up even after a fast start. I also think NC State could score some to aid this. Hobbs Johnson can be dominant, but he also is a tad walk prone which would play into the hands of a NC State team that needs a little help getting their offense untracked.

[EaglesPhan36]

Fukk me. Rodon is gonna give it a go. Late word on that. Already booked the 1st Five over. Just put down half a unit on Under 4.5 at +105 too to try and get something back if he's as good as usual.

Hopefully he's tired. Carolina ML already booked in the Open Parlay, so I'll have to live with that.

[EaglesPhan36]

Already glad I hedged the 1st Five under even though you never know Johnson will be. If UNC doesn't take a better approach, Rodon will be pitching into the 6th and they'll be lucky if they're even at that point if Johnson matches. #2 hitter did a great job with his AB and then the two idiots after him started swinging at every thing.

[EaglesPhan36]

Wish I had taken the game total Under 10 at -140. Seems like a mortal lock with Rodon in. Books never had a chance to change anything because of the late announcement.

[EaglesPhan36]

Brilliant slide by Holberton to give UNC the lead.
You need to get more than one run though in that situation.

[EaglesPhan36]

That is a HUGE run to get. 2-0 going into the bottom of the 5th. Gonna lose 0.85 units on this 1st Five over, but if UNC wins to keep that parlay alive - I'll be satisfied. Also be looking for futures if they repost. If UNC wins tonight, I have a feeling the Heels will be in the Championship Series. Other side is tough to call with Oregon State-Mississippi State ...

[EaglesPhan36]

Insurance runs. 4-0 UNC.

[EaglesPhan36]

Brilliant pitching from Hobbs Johnson. 7-0 Heels win. So it's UNC vs. UCLA and OSU vs. Miss State. I don't think UNC could have asked for a better match-up even though they have to win two straight. Their pitching staff goes against the worst offense that came to Omaha and while UCLA has great pitching, UNC is showing that it can find a way now to scratch through some runs. Will not be shocked if both match-ups require two games to decide it. I think I favor Miss State & UNC and if I can find futures for them to win the CWS put up again, I will probably bet accordingly. Truly believe one of them will be there with the way things have played out this week.

[EaglesPhan36]

2013 Record: 58-42 [+16.35]
CWS: 8-2 [+4.60]

Really interesting pitching options today for Oregon State and Mississippi State. The Beavers look set to go with Jace Fry who has barely pitched this season after coming back from Tommy John surgery. He was solid as a Freshman last year at 5-3 with a 2.45 ERA. It sounds like their coach wanted to give Miss. State a different look over having Freshman Andrew Moore start again. Moore settled in against the Bulldogs, but allowed three early runs. Sounds like Fry goes and Moore comes in if Fry doesn't have it. Miss. State meanwhile is going with Luis Pollorena, the lefty who has not pitched in three weeks. I think it's the same theory as OSU has not faced a lefty starter in Omaha The last lefty starter they faced was Kansas State's Joe Flattery in the Regionals. He limited the Beavers to a couple runs in 5+ IP. Seems like a pretty solid strategy as looking back, Oregon State did not face many lefties in the PAC-12 regularly. Kellogg from Arizona State and he dominated them. Grant Watson from UCLA who they did score some against. Cole Irvin from Oregon, he limited them to two runs.

Here's the caveat though from a report I read:

MSU pitching coach Butch Thompson confirmed after a Wednesday morning practice session at Creighton University that Pollorena (6-3, 4.32) is suffering from a severe strain "in the muscle on the lateral side of his pitching arm between the shoulder and the elbow".

Read more: http://www.cdispatch.com/msusports/a...#ixzz2WrYNCbBE

Just food for thought. Obviously he must have proven enough to the coaches that he can go and they won't hesitate to go to their bullpen. If Pollorena is healthy, despite his loftier numbers - 4.32 ERA and .258 BAA, he does get a lot of fly balls which suit TD Ameritrade well. More concerned with his walks though than hits given up even. He is likely going to allow for some base runners. Going to continue to rake over some things and look for a play on this one.

[EaglesPhan36]

June 21st
Mississippi State Team Total Over 3.5 [-105]

[EaglesPhan36]

Well for all the bullshit from the coaches, it's a rematch Moore vs. Graveman. Probably would have gone MSU ML, but team total is still good IMO too.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not sure I believe anything prior to the games any more, but both team Twitter sites reporting UCLA starting lefty Grant Watson tonight and UNC starting lefty Kent Emanuel. Heels face yet another LHP. If Emanuel can't hold the anemic UCLA lineup down, he's got to be done for the year from fatigue. This should be the perfect elixir for him. Watson is good, but not dominant with a .271 BAA - so I do think UNC is going to score again today even though if Watson struggles, you know there will be a quick hook to get into the Bruins' tough bullpen. Heels TT is 4.5, Over +110. Right now, that is where I am looking to go for that game. Going to check some more stats on Watson too and find some multiple confirmation of him starting - but I do tend to believe that is correct because I expected them to go lefty like everyone else has against them.

And oh yeah ... Miss State just finished their TT in the 5th. BOOM! This team is red hot and looks like they will be getting some good rest while I think UNC and UCLA might battle twice.

Hunter Renfroe with a three run HR ... believe that is HR #2 for the entire CWS. Pathetic. Don't need Gorilla Ball, but HRs are a natural part of the game that are really dried up at TD Ameritrade with these bats and balls.

[frugalgambler]

June 21st
Mississippi State Team Total Over 3.5 [-105]

Good call man. Congrats !

[face]

books keep making bulldogs dogs

team can hit. country strong.

will take them again too

[EaglesPhan36]

It's a team that if they have a two run lead by the middle innings, they're going to beat you 9/10 with that bullpen. Hoping UNC makes it because I really don't want to watch many more UCLA games.

[face]

yes, UCLA is a little boring. not gonna pretend like I know much about it, but what do you think about FF under 4 in that one? will just lay off probably.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'd lay off any unders in that one. Emanuel has been so bad lately/fatigued - that he might give up some runs still even to UCLA and I think the Heels are going to get 3-4 off Watson before he exits. Could wind up a pitcher's duel as a lot of these games have, but a bit iffy with those projected starters.

[face]

[EaglesPhan36]

North Carolina Team Total Over 4.5 [+110]