Mlb 2012

[BiffTFinancial]

CWS did the job! Congrats on a strong play we both liked! Good job BiffTfinancial!



Derty D

thanks Derty!

[BiffTFinancial]

love everything about cincy again 2marro, except the fact Scott has been a home team machine behind the plate this year..

cards/bucs un seems to have potential to me, should hit 9.5 which would be nice...2 biggest issues are Cards pen and the extreme heat...would like your numbers on this when you get a chance.....not sure if you will have time as ill be gone by 9am central (going to sign on car loan and promised nephew id make his last baseball gm (missed all this yr because of work)..

up early today, gonna do a big chunk of my capping early this morning. 9 games that start at 4 pm or earlier. too hot to goff during day (last night got rained out) so gotta do something for competitive rush.

i like the ump in StL (Reyburn) for under. i'll cap that one soon and post leans.

[BiffTFinancial]

Friday 6.29.2012 final card
4* Phillies ML (-102) - LOSER
3* Braves -1 (+117) - LOSER
3* Mets -1 (-101) [laying 3.02u to win 3u] - WINNER
2* Tribe/Orioles over 9' (-115) - WINNER
2* White Sox ML (+121) - WINNER

3-2 +0.34u

poor job of weighting, reminds me why i've gone 2* on most plays all year. at the same time, i was confident and did my homework, just wrong about Phils and Braves so it's not as if i forced anything. i just picked the wrong games on which to step out. at least the Dickman bailed me out. onward and upward.

210-180-10 +56.05u season to date

[BiffTFinancial]

leans for early games
CWS +121
Angels -116 (and maybe RL +140)
Twins -135 and RL +150
Pirates/Cards under 9

Bank, if i play Cards under, i'll play at 9 and risk the push rather than pay the juice on 9'. i may regret that, but i think that's how i'll play it assuming i do (for one thing, i don't think that we'll see a 4-4 game that forces that 9th run). i put that game in the 8.0-8.1 range with a ceiling of a little over 8.5. my concerns are the 11 mph wind to CF forecast, Busch during the day and the fact that Busch has been playing more high-scoring this season than in recent years. the StL park factor was in neighborhood of .90-.94 last couple of seasons and was up in the 1.15 earlier this season. however, it's worth noting that it is now 1.075, so it has been dropping. i noticed this earlier this season and have been paying attention to it because i loved Busch under last season. i do like that it's been trending downward. would love to hear more of your thoughts on this game, i could be swayed to fire on that under.

[BiffTFinancial]

Saturday 6.30.2012
3* Diamondbacks -1 (+123)
2* Angels -1 (+112)
2* Twins ML (-136)
1* Twins RL (+142)

[BiffTFinancial]

leans
CWS (not sure i want to go contra Yanks in home day game)
PIT/StL under (waiting for 9 to become available at 5D)
Reds ML/Reds TT over (should be 4; like Reds ML, but think that i may like TT better, have awhile before TTs come out)
Tigers/Rays under (line rising so will wait)

[Madison]

Morning,

Sweet over in Bal yesterday. Likin those. Took Dickey Thursday @130 so it was a comfortable day all around.

Just finished my first pass for today. Had Minn and LAA flaged but had the Pitt/Stl as over. Lynn off form last 2. GL

[2daBank]

Saturday 6.30.2012
3* Diamondbacks -1 (+123)
2* Angels -1 (+112)
2* Twins ML (-136)
1* Twins RL (+142)

wish i had time to wait for tt as i agree reds over 4 would prob be just as strong or better than reds ml (no worrying about what Latos will bring)...but i do not so hit cincy-125 pretty hard last night (went to click @ -117 and damn thing jumped on me...

liking the twinks, i did a stl/min parlay..ultimately i feel Lynn's power stuff will be enough to limit buccos bats (the weather and fact he those high heat has to be worrisome tho, for gm and total), i was on the train of thought that lynn would regress somewhat (that why we banged over last week) but i think he can get back on track in this one.. karstens capable and w way cards are basically putting up one big inning and nothing else makes me thinkg he can compete, buccos pen rock solid (unlike cards) way i see it is both pitchers solid early, maybe 4-2 type gm when starters leave, that leaves bucs solid pen and cards shaky pen to finish it off...if it wasnt so fukkin hot i would be more confident no one gets blown up but triple digit heat sux...i made a play on u 9.5 -115 but certainly dont blame you waiting for 9 with + money as this one of those where we win or it gets demolished....

also on jays once again....

would be real interested in scrubbies/stros under but number not gonna be posted for me in time...

off to sign myself into some debt (buying the wifey a car) then have to go to nephews ballgm, undoubtedly ill be out drinking after that so BOL to you and all the other good peeps in this thread...

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Reds team total over 4 (-105)

TT was about what i expected and upon closer review Zito has pretty crappy history vs Reds

Saturday 6.30.2012
3* Diamondbacks -1 (+123)
2* Angels -1 (+112)
2* Twins ML (-136)
2* Reds TT over 4 (-105)
1* Twins RL (+142)

[BiffTFinancial]

Morning,

Sweet over in Bal yesterday. Likin those. Took Dickey Thursday @130 so it was a comfortable day all around.

Just finished my first pass for today. Had Minn and LAA flaged but had the Pitt/Stl as over. Lynn off form last 2. GL

morning Madison. thanks for props on Tribe game, though i should point out that you mentioned it first.

i am starting to feel a little hesitant about PIT/StL under. a day game at Busch when it's this hot and a wind out has me scared as the ball can really fly in conditions like this.

[2daBank]

morning Madison. thanks for props on Tribe game, though i should point out that you mentioned it first.

i am starting to feel a little hesitant about PIT/StL under. a day game at Busch when it's this hot and a wind out has me scared as the ball can really fly in conditions like this.

i agree bro prob not worth playing..i dont even like my cards really...gotta run...gl

[BiffTFinancial]

wish i had time to wait for tt as i agree reds over 4 would prob be just as strong or better than reds ml (no worrying about what Latos will bring)...but i do not so hit cincy-125 pretty hard last night (went to click @ -117 and damn thing jumped on me...

liking the twinks, i did a stl/min parlay..ultimately i feel Lynn's power stuff will be enough to limit buccos bats (the weather and fact he those high heat has to be worrisome tho, for gm and total), i was on the train of thought that lynn would regress somewhat (that why we banged over last week) but i think he can get back on track in this one.. karstens capable and w way cards are basically putting up one big inning and nothing else makes me thinkg he can compete, buccos pen rock solid (unlike cards) way i see it is both pitchers solid early, maybe 4-2 type gm when starters leave, that leaves bucs solid pen and cards shaky pen to finish it off...if it wasnt so fukkin hot i would be more confident no one gets blown up but triple digit heat sux...i made a play on u 9.5 -115 but certainly dont blame you waiting for 9 with + money as this one of those where we win or it gets demolished....

also on jays once again....

would be real interested in scrubbies/stros under but number not gonna be posted for me in time...

off to sign myself into some debt (buying the wifey a car) then have to go to nephews ballgm, undoubtedly ill be out drinking after that so BOL to you and all the other good peeps in this thread...

here's hoping that both of us cash on Reds and one of us cashes on Jays/Angels.

i gotta go and buy wife's birthday present (her birthday is Sunday), then gym then some birthday party from like 3 pm on (i'm told that there will be booze). BOL today, bank, have fun.

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

1* Astros ML (+133)

Saturday 6.30.2012 updated card
3* Diamondbacks -1 (+123)
2* Angels -1 (+112)
2* Twins ML (-136)
2* Reds TT over 4 (-105)
1* Twins RL (+142)
1* Astros ML (+133)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Mets -1 (-112)

Saturday 6.30.2012 updated card
3* Diamondbacks -1 (+123)
2* Angels -1 (+112)
2* Twins ML (-136)
2* Reds TT over 4 (-105)
2* Mets -1 (-112)
1* Twins RL (+142)
1* Astros ML (+133)

heading out. BOL to all tonight.

[italianbandit]

I like your Reds TT over 4. Good luck. I couldn't help it - also bought some Reds -1 -104.

[fitguy67]

210-180-10 +56.05u season to date

solid work in progress here biff

[2daBank]

Biff another busy day coming up for me (and im still up at 3 am, lol)..

play and a lean that caught my eye for you to look at...

atl-115 (maybe it goes lower)...bottom line is ive been on a bit of nats fade in spots this road trip and Gio got away last time, while i have no problem with Gio (he is a very good pitcher) ive seen signs of shakiness at times and more so recently, yes he has wiggled his way out of a lot of jams but how long will that keep up? he hasnt went past 6 in some time and this is hotlanta's 3rd crack at him in barely a month, and how can you not luv Tmac behind the plate giving him the squeeze....also like that nats got to hudson last time they squared off because ill trust a gamer like Hudson not to get smacked around twice by a hot but not exactly scary offense.. came into this series expecting braves to get on track at home catching nats off long coors series and feel like they finish the job and take 2 of 3 here....

just one last thing to add to this...Hudson has sick numbers in the daytime throughout his career.... (wanna say 14-2 last 3 years or something ridiculous)..

lean..

jays ff +? maybe gm?...what can i say, i like taking the jays as dogs cause these guys score runs, advanced stuff suggest cj pitching a little over his head (not to mention being the beneficiary of seeing quite a few bad or slumping offenses), think jays can put some pressure on him early..Laffey who knows? pitched well @ bos so is a decent 5inn to much to ask here? the shitty part about backing jays is obviously they give runs away as well as they score them and first 5 lean is strictly trying to aviod them blowing a lead (then again ff limits my chances of coming back)...one way or other ill take the +money w jays on Canada day..


ive spent a minute on this card and honestly liked these better than most..might be few totals ill wait to see your thoughts on..going to gym prob around 9:30-10 ill check back before then, i see it is your wife's bday today so imagine you will be busy as well (tell her us degen's at sbr wish her a happy bday)..be out for most the day myself, drinks, grill, and the pool await...

[BiffTFinancial]

Saturday 6.30.2012 final card
3* Diamondbacks -1 (+123) - LOSER
2* Angels -1 (+112) - LOSER
2* Twins ML (-136) - WINNER
2* Reds TT over 4 (-105) - LOSER
2* Mets -1 (-112) - WINNER
1* Twins RL (+142) - WINNER
1* Astros ML (+133) - LOSER

3-4 -2.68u

should've just played Reds ML or -1, and continue to struggle to get anything correct on a Cubs game. that's 4 soft days in a row (3 negative and 1 where were up less than 1u) after great 4 day run. ebbs and flows are going to happen in this long season, and the good news (i suppose), is that the nice run made us 23.38u while the poorer run took only 3.96u back. that said, i really want to finish this week strong and positive (we're 18-14 +5.22u on the week heading into Sunday).

213-184-10 +53.37u season to date

[BiffTFinancial]

I like your Reds TT over 4. Good luck. I couldn't help it - also bought some Reds -1 -104.

ugh, sorry to see you get screwed with the Giants' run in the 9th. too bad we didn't hit the TT over (despite a ton of chance - 15 baserunners in first 7 innings yet only 2 runs), the side was the smarter play. tough game to go 0-1-1 since you had a legit shot at 2-0. let's get back at em today.

[1Time!]

Any early plans or leans? Your Sunday games are during the middle of the night for us Down Under so I try to lock them in before bed time!

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff another busy day coming up for me (and im still up at 3 am, lol)..

play and a lean that caught my eye for you to look at...

atl-115 (maybe it goes lower)...bottom line is ive been on a bit of nats fade in spots this road trip and Gio got away last time, while i have no problem with Gio (he is a very good pitcher) ive seen signs of shakiness at times and more so recently, yes he has wiggled his way out of a lot of jams but how long will that keep up? he hasnt went past 6 in some time and this is hotlanta's 3rd crack at him in barely a month, and how can you not luv Tmac behind the plate giving him the squeeze....also like that nats got to hudson last time they squared off because ill trust a gamer like Hudson not to get smacked around twice by a hot but not exactly scary offense.. came into this series expecting braves to get on track at home catching nats off long coors series and feel like they finish the job and take 2 of 3 here....

just one last thing to add to this...Hudson has sick numbers in the daytime throughout his career.... (wanna say 14-2 last 3 years or something ridiculous)..

lean..

jays ff +? maybe gm?...what can i say, i like taking the jays as dogs cause these guys score runs, advanced stuff suggest cj pitching a little over his head (not to mention being the beneficiary of seeing quite a few bad or slumping offenses), think jays can put some pressure on him early..Laffey who knows? pitched well @ bos so is a decent 5inn to much to ask here? the shitty part about backing jays is obviously they give runs away as well as they score them and first 5 lean is strictly trying to aviod them blowing a lead (then again ff limits my chances of coming back)...one way or other ill take the +money w jays on Canada day..


ive spent a minute on this card and honestly liked these better than most..might be few totals ill wait to see your thoughts on..going to gym prob around 9:30-10 ill check back before then, i see it is your wife's bday today so imagine you will be busy as well (tell her us degen's at sbr wish her a happy bday)..be out for most the day myself, drinks, grill, and the pool await...

i will look at these games first. i did write down "Braves TT over" on my leans list when i say McClelland behind the dish in the paper this morning (though don't love playing TT overs with home team, esp in NL, Cards and Braves are exceptions as they are simply different kind of team from rest of NL).

thanks a lot for the birthday wishes for the wife, i will certainly pass those along. you're all heart, pal. her birthday is actually Monday, but we're celebrating some today, some Monday, some Tuesday. gifts purchased, check. taking daughter to pool and lunch in middle of day, check. avoid checking scores on phone when we have birthday dinner with kids tonight, hopeful. capping, in process.

[BiffTFinancial]

Any early plans or leans? Your Sunday games are during the middle of the night for us Down Under so I try to lock them in before bed time!

working on them right now. i will post and update leans as i go through in case you want to play any. i probably won't lock in my final card until 10-11 am EST, but i always post plays as a i book them.

[1Time!]

working on them right now. i will post and update leans as i go through in case you want to play any. i probably won't lock in my final card until 10-11 am EST, but i always post plays as a i book them.

Cheers mate! Last few weeks I've been setting the alarm for 2.30am & locking them then going back to sleep!

[BiffTFinancial]

gotta run out for a few minutes.

initial leans
Twins ML and RL
Braves ML/TT over/game over
Tigers/Rays under 8'
Jays ML/game under/Angels TT under

i could also see pairing Dodgers ML with something in a day-night parlay

[BiffTFinancial]

Sunday 7.1.2012
2* Braves ML (-116)
2* Twins ML (-133)
1* Twins RL (+160)

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Tigers/Rays under 8' (-115)

Sunday 7.1.2012 updated card
2* Braves ML (-116)
2* Tigers/Rays under 8' (-115)
2* Twins ML (-133)
1* Twins RL (+160)

[2daBank]

Biff, what did yo come up with total for cws/nyy gm? kinda curious as i can see a argument for under but at same time really wanna play over. lol

[2daBank]

det/tb under looks rock solid to me..think i shall join you on this one...

i came into this card looking to back twinks but somewhere along the way something made me come off that gm, gonna go revisit and see wtf it actually was..

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Reds/Giants under 7 (+100)

Sunday 7.1.2012 updated card
2* Braves ML (-116)
2* Tigers/Rays under 8' (-115)
2* Twins ML (-133)
2* Reds/Giants under 7 (+100)
1* Twins RL (+160)

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, what did yo come up with total for cws/nyy gm? kinda curious as i can see a argument for under but at same time really wanna play over. lol

will cap that one right now. trying to decide what to do (if anything) with Angels/Jays, Tribe, Kershaw.

[BiffTFinancial]

det/tb under looks rock solid to me..think i shall join you on this one...

i came into this card looking to back twinks but somewhere along the way something made me come off that gm, gonna go revisit and see wtf it actually was..

thanks, man. yeah, i love Trop unders and Rays struggle vs LHP. my model has really low floors for that game and Reds/Giants game. i'm also guessing that Votto will be out (though i didn't adjust for that in projecting game).

i've watched a fair amount of Liriano's starts since his return. he's keeping his pitch-count down and looking a lot closer to his old dominant form. KC struggles big-time vs LHP and Liriano has good history vs KC. Twins hitting lefties very well this year. wind is in. Not much history with ump and SPs (Liriano's one start with Emmel was duel vs Verlander couple years ago). Emmel been big over guy this year, which i don't like. however, with way these teams hit LHP, if Emmel squeezes both, that should help Twins as they should do more damage off of meatballs. wanted to put 2u on the RL here but couldn't quite do it.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, what did yo come up with total for cws/nyy gm? kinda curious as i can see a argument for under but at same time really wanna play over. lol

i have around 9.5 for CWS/NYY. i don't think that i could play under. 90 degree day game in Bronx with 12 mph wind to CF, ball should be flying. hard to figure out how much to adjust for that.

[2daBank]

yea im on same page with twinks on all that, yet something made me move past it (was pretty high when i was going thru card so havnt quite figured out what it was)...but yea far as both teams vs lefties big adv twinks, maybe chen had lot better advanced than i would have expected, im sure the unreal string of overs that ump is on didnt help matters as i never trust Liriano to maintain control, also noticed albeit in not a ton of abs chen has done well against M&M.. wasnt for a ump that was 14-1 to the over id prob like the under but that some roll he is on..

[2daBank]

i have around 9.5 for CWS/NYY. i don't think that i could play under. 90 degree day game in Bronx with 12 mph wind to CF, ball should be flying. hard to figure out how much to adjust for that.

kinda figured yo would come in under, hell i would think anyone with a decent model would come in under 10, that said damn thing just has a nyy day gm over feel to it...

im trying to respond a lot quicker than i am but my damn pc is having a emotional breakdown or some shit...

[BiffTFinancial]

yea im on same page with twinks on all that, yet something made me move past it (was pretty high when i was going thru card so havnt quite figured out what it was)...but yea far as both teams vs lefties big adv twinks, maybe chen had lot better advanced than i would have expected, im sure the unreal string of overs that ump is on didnt help matters as i never trust Liriano to maintain control, also noticed albeit in not a ton of abs chen has done well against M&M.. wasnt for a ump that was 14-1 to the over id prob like the under but that some roll he is on..

yeah, can't cross Emmel with this over streak he's on, but i agree that this game has an under feel to it.

kinda figured yo would come in under, hell i would think anyone with a decent model would come in under 10, that said damn thing just has a nyy day gm over feel to it...

im trying to respond a lot quicker than i am but my damn pc is having a emotional breakdown or some shit...

CWS/NYY definitely has over feel to it, but the over that i want to play is Coors. 12 is such a high number, but game over/Pads TT over. Kip Wells vs Drew Pomeranz back from the minors. breeze to left and 90+ degree day at Coors.