Hatter's 2012 Tea Party on the Mound!

[disabledaccount]

Okay sounds good hopefully we clean up tonight GL

[Maddhatter]

5/31 Thurs

Boston -135 4u
Houston ff -105 4u
Milw/LAD O7 +115 4u
Milw/LAD ff O3.5 +110 4u

Nothing big tonight. Mostly action plays. GL all!

[disabledaccount]

Aww man im on both diff sides this is not good!!!!

[Maddhatter]

Aww man im on both diff sides this is not good!!!!

Line movement is on your side w/ Detroit and I am hoping most of it is due to the "anti-sweep" bettors. Right now Colorado is hot. Hard to go against them w/ how they are hitting and scoring. I just have to go w/ Norris vs Gurthrie though to avoid the sweep. I don't trust the Astro's pen though (thus ff). Easily could give up 4 runs in the 8th inn w/ how they have been playing lately.

Beckett just has been pitching lights out lately (1.25 era, 0.88 WHIP, 2.00 FiP L5 games). Scherzer has the highest K-rate in the American league for starters but he's getting stroked on his mistakes for a high BABIP. I believe Boston has the right type of batters that can fight through a count and force mistakes out of Scherzer. I don't like that Saltalamachia may be out due to sickness but everyone else has hit Scherzer enough as evidenced by his high ERA vs Boston (although small sample size). Both teams are hitting around .300 in their L5 games and have the ability to score a bunch. 5-3 or 5-4 type of game, so I am not confident on either over or under (hopefully w/ Boston winning).

Good read on Scherzer....

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/max-scherzer-on-his-high-babip-and-k-rate/

[disabledaccount]

Well good luck to both of us let the better man win(you)

[Maddhatter]

Aww man im on both diff sides this is not good!!!!

Good calls on both! Glad the over hit for the last game for me.

[Maddhatter]

5/31 Thurs

Boston -135 4u L
Houston ff -105 4u L
Milw/LAD O7 +115 4u W
Milw/LAD ff O3.5 +110 4u W

2-2 -0.60 Units for the day.


MLB: 375-351, +301.00 Units, 51.7% (86-90-4 5u, 159-119-4 10u Plays)

[Maddhatter]

6/1 Fri

Detroit +155 3u
Minn +130 4u
Atlanta +155 3u
Bos/Tor U10 -125 4u
Boston +115 3u
StL -105 10u
StL -1.5 +150 5u
Balt +160 3u
Cinn/Hou O8.5 -115 5u
Cinn -125 4u
CWS -140 10u
CWS -1.5 +160 5u
KC -145 20u
KC -1.5 +145 10u
Arizona -120 20u
Arizona -1.5 +140 10u
LAA +110 5u
SF -165 10u
SF -1.5 +140 5u

Leans: Pitt ff (4)

[Maddhatter]

6/1 Fri

Detroit +155 3u L
Minn +130 4u L
Atlanta +155 3u PPD
Bos/Tor U10 -125 4u W
Boston +115 3u W
StL -105 10u L
StL -1.5 +150 5u L
Balt +160 3u L
Cinn/Hou O8.5 -115 5u L
Cinn -125 4u W
CWS -140 10u W
CWS -1.5 +160 5u W
KC -145 20u W
KC -1.5 +145 10u W
Arizona -120 20u L
Arizona -1.5 +140 10u L
LAA +110 5u W
SF -165 10u W
SF -1.5 +140 5u L

9-9 +9.20 Units for the day. 2-3 5u, 5-4 10u Plays. Busy day... forgot to place my Pitt ff lean which of course won. Figures. 3 run 9th hurt winning the RL w/ SF but can't complain about a ML win and a positive day. On to tomorrow.


MLB: 384-360, +310.20 Units, 51.7% (88-93-4 5u, 164-123-4 10u Plays)

[shopbar picks]

anything late?

[Maddhatter]

anything late?

Sorry, been a busy week. I was exhausted last night and didn't want to force any plays and make mistakes. Last time I did that, it didn't go so well. Stayed away today and just got home from work. I will start looking at tomorrow's games and should have something up later.

[shopbar picks]

Took arz. and det. my only plays today. GL tmrow

[Maddhatter]

6/2 Sun

Detroit -1.5 +115 5u
Mia/Phil O8.5 -110 4u
Miami -105 4u
Wash -135 20u
Wash -1.5 +170 10u
Sea/CWS U7.5 -105 4u
CWS -175 5u
Pitt +100 3u
Cleveland -145 10u
Cleveland -1.5 +145 5u
LAD/Col O10.5 -110 20u
LAA -110 10u
LAA -1.5 +165 5u
CHC +135 20u
CHC +1.5 -165 10u
Arizona -115 4u

[Maddhatter]

Took arz. and det. my only plays today. GL tmrow

Hit it and quit! Very nice. Hopefully tomorrow goes well for you also. GL!

[Maddhatter]

Adding...

Cinn -145 20u
Cinn -1.5 +115 10u
Cinn tt O4.5 -110 5u
CHC -1.5 +210 5u

[blue.eyed.tuna]

Ummm... This is gonna be one ugly day. You can see it coming once units go from 1-5.. To 10 unit games .. To multiple 20 unit games. This is where the where things tend to get ugly in these threads. Good luck, but I see 25% of the YTD units evaporating today. Back to basics I say...

[bmansell33]

Lets get back on track tomorrow hatter, tough day today

[Maddhatter]

6/2 Sun

Detroit -1.5 +115 5u L
Mia/Phil O8.5 -110 4u L
Miami -105 4u W
Wash -135 20u L
Wash -1.5 +170 10u L
Sea/CWS U7.5 -105 4u W
CWS -175 5u W
Pitt +100 3u W
Cleveland -145 10u L
Cleveland -1.5 +145 5u L
LAD/Col O10.5 -110 20u L
LAA -110 10u L
LAA -1.5 +165 5u L
CHC +135 20u L
CHC +1.5 -165 10u L
Arizona -115 4u W
Cinn -145 20u L
Cinn -1.5 +115 10u L
Cinn tt O4.5 -110 5u L
CHC -1.5 +210 5u L

5-15 -169.90 Units for the day. 1-5 5u, 0-13 10u Plays. Not much to say.... results says it all. No excuses. Got a bad feeling in my stomach after so much losses but I am determined to bounce back. Tomorrow's another day.


MLB: 389-375, +140.30 Units, 50.9% (89-98-4 5u, 164-136-4 10u Plays)

[Maddhatter]

Ummm... This is gonna be one ugly day. You can see it coming once units go from 1-5.. To 10 unit games .. To multiple 20 unit games. This is where the where things tend to get ugly in these threads. Good luck, but I see 25% of the YTD units evaporating today. Back to basics I say...

I would never suggest what works for me for anyone else. But I've been using this method all of NFL '11, NCAAF '11, NCAAB '11, and so far from the beginning of the season to now. Small gain in NFL (+16.53u), Little larger gain in NCAAF (+112.49), and small loss in NCAAB this season. Granted I didn't finish the NCAAB season but I quit once I broke even. Every other sport at $25 per unit. As I stated to start the thread, I cap MLB the worst of all sports so I am using $5 per unit. All documented here at SBR. Perhaps, I will change but for now, I like it and it works for me. LOL we'll see how long it lasts. I decided to be more disciplined in my betting and documenting it here at SBR has helped me. Previous to that, I was all over the place with my betting. Winning 10k a week for a month straight then losing it all the very next week with bets anywhere from $25 to $2500 a play. Let's just say I lost more than I won with less games played. I don't do well with one or two plays a day. So I devised a system where I play a lot and by lowering the % of my BR to accommadate the action. 10u for me would be approx 1u for anyone else. Time will tell. Like I always say... tomorrow's another day.

[shopbar picks]

Gettem tomarrow. There will be days like these

[jbart28]

Take your time getting back on track. No hurry. I took several days off and am still not back to 5 days a week.

You will get back on track. Monday is upon us with a short card. Take a day off. GL

[blue.eyed.tuna]

I would never suggest what works for me for anyone else. But I've been using this method all of NFL '11, NCAAF '11, NCAAB '11, and so far from the beginning of the season to now. Small gain in NFL (+16.53u), Little larger gain in NCAAF (+112.49), and small loss in NCAAB this season. Granted I didn't finish the NCAAB season but I quit once I broke even. Every other sport at $25 per unit. As I stated to start the thread, I cap MLB the worst of all sports so I am using $5 per unit. All documented here at SBR. Perhaps, I will change but for now, I like it and it works for me. LOL we'll see how long it lasts. I decided to be more disciplined in my betting and documenting it here at SBR has helped me. Previous to that, I was all over the place with my betting. Winning 10k a week for a month straight then losing it all the very next week with bets anywhere from $25 to $2500 a play. Let's just say I lost more than I won with less games played. I don't do well with one or two plays a day. So I devised a system where I play a lot and by lowering the % of my BR to accommadate the action. 10u for me would be approx 1u for anyone else. Time will tell. Like I always say... tomorrow's another day.

I hear ya man. Get back after them. Good to hear sbr has helped you track and stay disciplined. I wasn't knocking ya... I just see it a lot here where guys kill it like you betting 1-5 units a game with some 10's mixed in and then start betting 10-20 units a game and give it all back. I always think ; can a 20 unit game really have 4x the probability of hitting as a 5 unit game? Always has left me keeping games between 1-5 units. Just my two cents... Bounce back hatter and BOL!

[Maddhatter]

Mon 6/4

NYM -105 10u
NYM -1.5 +195 5u
NYM ff -105 20u
NYM tt O4 -110 10u

[Maddhatter]

I hear ya man. Get back after them. Good to hear sbr has helped you track and stay disciplined. I wasn't knocking ya... I just see it a lot here where guys kill it like you betting 1-5 units a game with some 10's mixed in and then start betting 10-20 units a game and give it all back. I always think ; can a 20 unit game really have 4x the probability of hitting as a 5 unit game? Always has left me keeping games between 1-5 units. Just my two cents... Bounce back hatter and BOL!

Closing in on 800 plays for this season and we still haven't hit the all star break. At least, I can say its not a small sample size

Thanks man and BoL to you this season also!

[Maddhatter]

Adding...

CHC +115 4u
CHC/SF U6.5 -110 5u
LAD ff -125 5u
KC -145 10u
KC -1.5 +135 5u
Seattle +125 20u
Seattle -1.5 +210 10u
Seattle tt O3.5 +110 4u
Tex/Oak O7.5 +100 4u

[shopbar picks]

Nice call the mariners, and the over in oakland. Congrats.

[Maddhatter]

Mon 6/4

NYM -105 10u L
NYM -1.5 +195 5u L
NYM ff -105 20u E
NYM tt O4 -110 10u E
CHC +115 4u L
CHC/SF U6.5 -110 5u W
LAD ff -125 5u E
KC -145 10u L
KC -1.5 +135 5u L
Seattle +125 20u W
Seattle -1.5 +210 10u W
Seattle tt O3.5 +110 4u W
Tex/Oak O7.5 +100 4u W

5-5-3 +20.40 Units for the day. 1-2-1 5u, 3-2-2 10u Plays. Hindsight, that KC game was a good one to pick the over. Should've put more units on the Oakland game also. Of course, easy to say once all is said and done.


MLB: 394-380, +160.70 Units, 50.9% (90-100-5 5u, 167-138-6 10u Plays)

[brahmabull117]

so you're up 160 units on the season while playing a ton of games everyday?


Wow that's astonishing man. How in the world do you consistently beat Vegas on multiple games a day?

[Maddhatter]

Nice call the mariners, and the over in oakland. Congrats.

Thanks Shop! I need to make a good run in the green. I hope you are doing better than I am.

[Maddhatter]

so you're up 160 units on the season while playing a ton of games everyday?


Wow that's astonishing man. How in the world do you consistently beat Vegas on multiple games a day?

Been doing it for a while now. I think I boggle NoCoin all the time. I suck at picking one game or even as small as a few games a day. I know its not the norm and I'd be broke if I didn't adapt. This is what works for now. As long as I have my head on straight and try not to force plays (which happens sometimes when I'm tired or feeling burned out), I find I do pretty good. My goal is to aim for a win% of 53-55% overall, it should yield me a decent profit based upon past results. Thanks for the compliment and BoL to you this MLB season.

[brahmabull117]

Been doing it for a while now. I think I boggle NoCoin all the time.

I absolutely love it because NoCoin thinks that it's impossible to beat Vegas just relying on traditional handicapping methods and what you do goes against all of that. The best part is that you even bet many games a day, gotta love it



All the people who believe that sports betting and Vegas is a 100% efficient market and that it's impossible to outsmart the books are clearly wrong. You're doing it on a massive massive sample size as well

[Maddhatter]

I absolutely love it because NoCoin thinks that it's impossible to beat Vegas just relying on traditional handicapping methods and what you do goes against all of that. The best part is that you even bet many games a day, gotta love it



All the people who believe that sports betting and Vegas is a 100% efficient market and that it's impossible to outsmart the books are clearly wrong. You're doing it on a massive massive sample size as well

I'm an action junkie and nothing is ever absolute. Still a long season ahead. I'll be happy to keep at this pace and hopefully end up in the green at season's end.

[brahmabull117]

I'm an action junkie and nothing is ever absolute. Still a long season ahead. I'll be happy to keep at this pace and hopefully end up in the green at season's end.

Did you say you're up pretty much every season of betting?


You would make a ton of money BTW if you ever start betting with some big money - It would be awesome to see you be up 160 units while betting 500 dollars a game for example

[Maddhatter]

I have lost more than I won overall. I only recently have gotten organized in '11 to keep a consistent unit amount. Started with a 20k bankroll and ended up around +3.2k for football season and broke even for basketball. I got as high as +450 (+11k) units in NCAAB but then went on a slide of about a month of losing and ended up breaking even right before conference tourneys began and decided to stop. Previous to '11 I was only playing sporadically and undisciplined. Mostly tailing people I read here or elsewhere. Some seasons I'd be up but not by much. I decided to start my own threads and picks and it has kept me straight. I am happy now with my methods win or lose. Baseball is only $5/unit. All other sports are usually $25/unit.

[brahmabull117]

I have lost more than I won overall. I only recently have gotten organized in '11 to keep a consistent unit amount. Started with a 20k bankroll and ended up around +3.2k for football season and broke even for basketball. I got as high as +450 (+11k) units in NCAAB but then went on a slide of about a month of losing and ended up breaking even right before conference tourneys began and decided to stop. Previous to '11 I was only playing sporadically and undisciplined. Mostly tailing people I read here or elsewhere. Some seasons I'd be up but not by much. I decided to start my own threads and picks and it has kept me straight. I am happy now with my methods win or lose. Baseball is only $5/unit. All other sports are usually $25/unit.

bankroll management is so so so ******* hard. Gambling is such an emotional thing that it's just impossible at times to keep an even head for many people, myself included


I made $8,000 dollars last year in the matter of just a month and ended up losing it all because I was so frustrated with a couple tough losses. I was even hitting at a 75% clip doing avg of about -150 plays (which is like 65% ATS on regular no juice plays)


I feel like I can definitely hit 55-60% over a long period of time, I just can't seem to control myself when it comes to bet size. My goal is to get a 50 K bankroll and then bet like 200 dollars a game. That way, losses don't bother me